[jedrider]

Sentiment towards the fate of the World heading unrelentingly downwards. Stock market goes up. Nothing new there.

[jato0072]

All of the trillions of digital funny money has to go somewhere.

[careinke]

All of the trillions of digital funny money has to go somewhere.

The smart money is converting their Fiat to BTC.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

Too late now, but if investors had have read this on October 18, 2023 they might have saved a fortune. A good read at any time though.

Avoid Getting Caught Up In Big Market Delusions: The Case Study Of Electric Vehicles

Executive Summary

A key value proposition for financial advisors is helping clients avoid common behavioral biases that can lead to suboptimal investment decisions. Even people who are normally rational decision-makers can be prone to fear, greed, and overconfidence, and the persistence of market bubbles where investors chase whatever company or sector is all the rage at the time (and often get stuck with losses when the bubble pops) shows that herd mentality in investing is as prevalent as ever. Which often leads to advisors counseling their clients to stay diversified and stick with a disciplined investment strategy to optimize their risk and return over the long term.

But even today, despite the evidence we have about our tendencies to make irrational choices, people still often fall prey to herd mentality in their investment decisions, as demonstrated by modern-day bubbles around meme stocks and cryptocurrencies. Even professional investors such as venture capitalists aren't immune either, with the rise and fall of companies like WeWork and Theranos showing that sophisticated investors can be enticed to abandon a disciplined approach by a sales pitch that's too good to be true. In fact, as more and more technology proliferates, with much of it promising to have a worldwide and life-changing impact, the temptation to chase the next big thing may grow even stronger.

However, it isn't just individual companies or speculative assets like Bitcoin that can be prone to bubbles. When a new technology or product is introduced that has the potential to reach a huge new market, investors tend to bet on many (or even all) of the companies that provide the technology as if they will each become the dominant player in that market. And because every company can't possibly become a winner (since they're competing with each other, and one company's success will necessarily come at the other's expense), this tends to result in the entire industry becoming overvalued. Investors' enthusiasm tends to feed on itself, resulting in increasingly unrealistic valuations, until suddenly reality comes into focus, and prices drop for all companies in the industry – often wiping out some companies and creating severe losses even in the ones that do survive.

There tend to be 4 main signs of this type of "Big Market Delusion", which have been present in market bubbles ranging from the 1990s dot-com boom to the 2000s digital advertising market to the 2010s cannabis industry. First, there is a story of a vast potential market for a new technology or product; second, investors and entrepreneurs tend to ignore the possibility that competition will squeeze profits for existing companies and reduce expectations for future revenues; third, companies focus overwhelmingly on growth in users or revenue as the primary metric rather than profitability; and finally, the valuations for these companies grow with no connection to their underlying fundamentals. And though it may not be possible to time exactly when a big market bubble will burst, these signs make it highly likely that a correction will happen eventually.

The key point is that when an investor bets on a new technology or industry becoming huge based on the size of its potential market, even 'diversifying' by investing in multiple companies within that industry won't necessarily protect them from losses, because when the entire industry becomes overvalued, the resulting correction is likely to affect everyone. The simple way to avoid getting caught up in big market delusions is by remaining broadly diversified across markets – and for advisors, the lessons learned from previous examples of big market delusions can help guide clients on avoiding the next one!

The article continues...
https://www.kitces.com/blog/big-market- ... et-bubble/

[theluckycountry]

NVDA

The Lion of AI. It's price is collapsing, down from $136 a share back on July 10 to $111 today. What happened in June though? Nvidia started trading on a new 10-for-1 split basis

Revising the Nvidia stock price before the split of $1,208.88 to $120.

I have seen this time and time again, just before a stock collapses, like Tesla and Microsoft etc, they do a split, they spin it as making the shares easier to buy? Like as if. The real purpose it to reduce "sticker shock" We all know the phenomena, they price a loaf of bread at $4.89, because it's not $5. In these stock splits they lower the price so that when it begins it's collapse it doesn't look as BAD. Without this split the NVDA price today would be $1110, down from $1370 at the peak on June 20.

The key takeaway is that now you won't see the stock fall from over a thousand back to triple digits. You will see it drop to double digits but psychologically that's not so bad.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/NVDA/overview

Media spin:
https://www.techopedia.com/nvidia-stock-split
Key Takeaways

Next time sell at the stock split.
Nvidia completed a ten-for-one stock split on June 7, 2024.
NVDA stock price has soared over the past year.
The move has made owning its stock more affordable.
Nvidia has now split its stock six times since 1999.
Investors must still analyze the company’s prospects before making any investment decisions.

[theluckycountry]

Revising the Nvidia stock price before the split of $1,208.88 to $120.

The stock is really tanking today! Down to $104.
$98 is the threshold where it will be below $1000 in the old measure.

For a good insight how these collapses are spun look at the article below. It tells how hedge funds are selling to make short term gains, it say's the average investor shouldn't though, you should hold. The trouble is people will typically hold all the way down and then after a few years sell the stuff anyway. The signature advice from the column below is:

The simplest way to do well in the stock market is to buy shares of great companies and then do nothing but hold on for many years. That's why the Motley Fool emphasizes a long-term investing strategy.

Which simply means, you buy at the high price as the smart money sells off, and you carry the losses while they take all the profits.

Anyone here still own WeWork? Rivian? Zoom... Theranos? Nvidia has been around for decades and probably will be for a lot longer, just not at the insane bubble prices it has been for the last year. Bubbles are pump and dump schemes, always have been.

Top Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Billionaires Are Selling Right Now

Institutional investors -- aka, "the big money" -- make up most of Wall Street's trading volume, so it's worth keeping an eye on what they're doing because it can impact stock prices in the short term.

For proof, look no further than these past few weeks, when many large technology stocks have begun sliding. Recent data indicates that in June, hedge funds and other institutions sold technology stocks at their sharpest pace in years. AI chip leader Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) was among them, and its shares have now fallen by more than 16% since peaking in June.

Why are these ultra-wealthy traders selling, and should Main Street investors follow them?
Why are billionaires selling Nvidia?

Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, who runs a $3.7 billion investment firm called Duquesne Family Office, was a bit ahead of the trend. He sold 70% of his stake in Nvidia in Q1. Now, it seems others are doing the same. But Nvidia and other technology stocks have soared over the past 18 months, and they are still way up -- so why sell?

In the competitive hedge fund industry, there's a natural emphasis on short-term results. Hedge funds that bought large technology and AI stocks at any point in the first six months of 2023 are likely sitting on massive unrealized gains. For example, Druckenmiller's estimated average cost basis on Nvidia stock is under $20, so he sold shares for a huge profit.

It looks like his peers have begun doing the same. That doesn't mean Nvidia is no longer a leading AI company or that it can't be a great long-term investment. It's just that hedge funds prioritize short-term gains.
Your advantage over billionaire investors

It can feel like billionaires have some unfair advantages in the stock market. Hedge fund managers use cutting-edge technology, employ brilliant analysts, and have access to industry insiders. Yet, most hedge funds underperform the S&P 500 over long periods. How could this be?

The simplest way to do well in the stock market is to buy shares of great companies and then do nothing but hold on for many years. That's why the Motley Fool emphasizes a long-term investing strategy.

Hedge funds don't follow that pattern -- they must justify their hefty fees and one-up each other to keep clients from pulling their money out in favor of a different fund. After all, hedge funds are indeed a dime a dozen -- there are more than 3,800 in the U.S. alone, but fewer than half stay in business for five years.

Individual investors answer to nobody but themselves. In the Internet age, anyone can research and learn about great companies. Once they find a winning stock, they can hold it for as long as they believe in the underlying business without feeling pressure to show returns every month, quarter, or year.
What should investors do with Nvidia stock?

Nobody knows where Nvidia stock will go from here, but its business has grown tremendously thanks to its dominant position in the AI chip niche. Companies will need to continue investing in AI, but for Nvidia to maintain the growth it has achieved over the past 18 months, it will need to keep innovating and protect its market share from competitors that are developing rival chips.

There is nothing wrong with booking some profits by selling some shares when your investments are up. You could easily sell a portion of a winning stake and still keep some invested for the future.

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/276 ... -right-now

[theluckycountry]

Buffett Calls The Top: Berkshire Quietly Dumps Half Its Apple Shares Amid Unprecedented Selling Spree https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buffe ... iquidation

Well there's a big confirm that the AI bubble has popped, what was the next Bubble? Was there a next Bubble? Or is it wrap for this 100 year cycle?

[Plantagenet]

The simplest way to do well in the stock market is to buy shares of great companies and then do nothing but hold on for many years. That's why the Motley Fool emphasizes a long-term investing strategy.

Which simply means, you buy at the high price as the smart money sells off, and you carry the losses while they take all the profits.

Why would you do something as stupid as that? You're not going to make any money that way.

Here's a simple rule for you to remember:

BUY LOW-----SELL HIGH



If the US economy goes into recession, and stock prices plummet, then that will be the time to buy.

Then hold until economic growth resumes and the stocks go much higher.

Get it now?

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

Then hold until economic growth resumes and the stocks go much higher.

Get it now?

Cheers!

You obviously don't get the satire do you plant? And as for buy low sell high, do you think that's what your private pension fund does? I assure you, it probably does the exact opposite in many cases. How many saps here held onto their EV shares when they collapsed. Certainly the fanboi if they held any. Personally I own zero shares. I don't gamble at the casino.

[theluckycountry]

Insider Selling Alert

Buffett's Vice Chairman Dumps Over Half Of His Berkshire Shares
Berkshire’s vice chair of insurance operations, Ajit Jain, has sold $139 million worth of his Class A shares.
Jain disposed of 200 of the Class A Berkshire shares for about $695,418 each, according to a regulatory filing Wednesday. The disposal means the long-term executive is left with control of 166 such shares, 61 of which he directly owns.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buffe ... ire-shares