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Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 23 May 2022, 17:43:11

Doly wrote:
You missed that "just enough" cravat.


That wasn't the main issue, the issue is that your idea is too vague to even count as a proposal.

Hume ? tax laws are always written to push people to do things the government wants people to do. Capital gains are only taxed (so far)when you cash out and actually realize your gains. That incentivizes you to and everyone else to leave their money invested in the economy which helps the economy grow year in and year out.
I would not think I should have to publish my own version on Samuelson Economics to make a minor point.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 11 Feb 2024, 10:36:12

By chance or luck or fate after I made my post on the CO2 thread yesterday about the crossing of the tipping point this morning I got a headline in my email news server.


Oops, Scientists May Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline


The sloppy news article then led me to the actual science report published in Nature.com.
300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C

Abstract

Anthropogenic emissions drive global-scale warming yet the temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels is uncertain. Using 300 years of ocean mixed-layer temperature records preserved in sclerosponge carbonate skeletons, we demonstrate that industrial-era warming began in the mid-1860s, more than 80 years earlier than instrumental sea surface temperature records. The Sr/Ca palaeothermometer was calibrated against ‘modern’ (post-1963) highly correlated (R2 = 0.91) instrumental records of global sea surface temperatures, with the pre-industrial defined by nearly constant (<±0.1 °C) temperatures from 1700 to the early 1860s. Increasing ocean and land-air temperatures overlap until the late twentieth century, when the land began warming at nearly twice the rate of the surface oceans. Hotter land temperatures, together with the earlier onset of industrial-era warming, indicate that global warming was already 1.7 ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2020. Our result is 0.5 °C higher than IPCC estimates, with 2 °C global warming projected by the late 2020s, nearly two decades earlier than expected.


For those science inclined readers the full article is available here, Nature.

The upshot of the article lays out the scientific evidence that we had already warmed between 1.6 and 1.8 C four years ago in 2020 and we are rapidly approaching the 2.0 C threshold that was considered a major tipping point before the infamous Paris Climate agreement of December 2015 reset the level to 1.5 C.

To be perfectly clear I said at the time and I continue to say the 1.5 C goal was nothing but empty political posturing. Given what has taken place in the eight years since that goal was named I maintain I was proven correct. Not only has no government anywhere done anything effective to reduce carbon emissions, Germany in the intervening years closed five perfectly safe and functional zero carbon nuclear power plants and China has maintained a building rate of more than one new Coal fired power station per week for the last eight years. In plain language we didn't just fail to reduce carbon emissions, major governments have adopted strategies that worked to greatly increase carbon emissions instead.

As I pointed out in the CO2 thread yesterday, only taking into account the CO2 and CH4 forcing and not counting all the other greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere already we are at the equivalent of 540 ppmv CO2 today with an annual increase over 2 ppmv fresh CO2 added every year.

Climate models have shown and paleoclimate records have repeatedly confirmed over multiple data sets using multiple different proxy methods that when Earth has had 540 ppmv CO2 in the past world average temperatures were 3 C above the 1850 baseline temperature. What is even more significant in the paleoclimate record is this 3 C difference while measured globally is true the effects were not global at all.

Instead what scientists have shown, repeatedly, is that the climate system is extremely regional. That 3 C global increase is actually a 1 C increase in the southern hemisphere which is dominated by ocean and a 5 C increase in the northern hemisphere which is where most of the continental land mass of the planet is located. 67 percent of the land on Earth is in the north with the remaining 33 percent in the south. Put another way over 80 percent of the surface south of the equator is water while in the north the figure is 60 percent water more or less.

That disparity in ocean surface area has a profound impact on regional climate, especially if you take into account that a full continent of that southern land is in Antarctica under a 3 km thick ice sheet. Ice sheets and permafrost are enormous heat sinks that serve to absorb energy in the summer season and release that energy in the winter. Open ocean also has this same effect on a lesser scale. In other words because Antarctica is massive and frozen over deeply with ice the disparity between climate impacts on the North and South is even greater than just the percentage difference in sea surface implies. Roughly half of South America, 40 percent of Africa and all of Australia is not much land compared to Asia, North Africa, Europe, North America and half of South America.

The Arctic Ocean while currently still frozen has a much thinner ice cover than it had in 2004 just two decades ago. Someday soon the remaining Arctic ice cover will thaw in summer which will allow the Arctic Ocean to absorb massively more energy in late summer. The biggest northern heats sinks are the Greenland Ice Sheet and the permafrost zone that covers much of Canada, Siberia and Alaska. Unfortunately the Permafrost zone is already collapsing and rapidly retreating north which is eliminating another of those three heat sinks. This leaves just the Greenland Ice Sheet as the last bastion heat sink in the Northern Hemisphere and since 2012 there have been a number of melting events indicating its stability is not as great as we once thought. In fact we know that 125,000 ybp the Greenland Ice Sheet was just half its current size because in the last Interglacial thaw before the current one about half of it melted and world sea levels were 7 meters higher than today.

So welcome to the world on the edge of 2 C greater temperature and prepare yourselves for the 5 C warmer world in the north because once the permafrost melts and the Arctic Ocean turns blue things will change far faster than most believe is possible.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby mousepad » Sun 11 Feb 2024, 16:59:11

Tanada wrote:

Oops, Scientists May Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline



What does Oops mean?
Several thousand of scientists working for decades on this climate stuff and they go "Oops"? What are them morons paid for?
How great it must be to be a scientist. Generous salary, jet-setting around the globe doing some experiments and measurements and in the end you just go "Oops", I might have miscalculated.

I wish I could do that in engineering. "oops, the shit just collapsed, but don't worry, no harm, I just miscalculated"
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 11 Feb 2024, 18:26:57

mousepad wrote:
Tanada wrote:

Oops, Scientists May Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline



What does Oops mean?
Several thousand of scientists working for decades on this climate stuff and they go "Oops"? What are them morons paid for?
How great it must be to be a scientist. Generous salary, jet-setting around the globe doing some experiments and measurements and in the end you just go "Oops", I might have miscalculated.

I wish I could do that in engineering. "oops, the shit just collapsed, but don't worry, no harm, I just miscalculated"


To be fair I think there is a world of difference between science administrators who give speeches and smooze politicians for funding and the nuts and bolts scientists doing the research who get "interpreted" by the administrators for funding purposes.

My understanding is based on tracking down the science based articles not the often politically motivated mass media news articles that leave out most of the details and often distort the facts.
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Sun 11 Feb 2024, 19:35:29

Tanada wrote:So welcome to the world on the edge of 2 C greater temperature and prepare yourselves for the 5 C warmer world in the north because once the permafrost melts and the Arctic Ocean turns blue things will change far faster than most believe is possible.


Sure seems believable with the non-winter we are having in Canada. We are the second largest country in the world and if one part of the country is getting warmer than normal weather it would be a safe bet that in other parts of the country people are getting their ass frozen off! But not this winter. We've seen warmer than normal temperatures simultaneously right across the country!
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 11 Feb 2024, 20:05:42

yellowcanoe wrote:
Tanada wrote:So welcome to the world on the edge of 2 C greater temperature and prepare yourselves for the 5 C warmer world in the north because once the permafrost melts and the Arctic Ocean turns blue things will change far faster than most believe is possible.


Sure seems believable with the non-winter we are having in Canada. We are the second largest country in the world and if one part of the country is getting warmer than normal weather it would be a safe bet that in other parts of the country people are getting their ass frozen off! But not this winter. We've seen warmer than normal temperatures simultaneously right across the country!


Here in NW Ohio we set a new high temp record on 09 Feb 2024 (63 F) breaking the record set on 09 Feb 2023 (59 F). This is the first February I can remember where we have not gotten a flake of snow and what little we got in January has all melted already. Only one day in the last two weeks has had "normal" temperatures where we were at or below freezing for 24 hours straight. This winter rain has vastly outpaced snow, something I would not have believed thirty years ago is now fairly common.

I am under the impression that younger people do not emotionally grasp how much things have changed because they do not have the life experience of the "old climate" as a mental scale to measure against. The last really cold winter we had here was in 2013 and that was a bitter reminder of the 1970's, since then we have only had two white Christmases out of ten instead of the normal nine out of ten. Twenty years ago it was still quite normal to go ice fishing on Lake Erie in January and February. In the last nine years the lake has not frozen over enough to support a small fisherman let alone an ice shanty or snow mobile. The last several years it has been open water from shore to the horizon. In the 1970's you could cross the Ohio coast onto the lake ice and snow mobile or ski all the way to the Canadian shore without fear of falling though thin ice.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 12 Feb 2024, 06:53:21

yellowcanoe wrote: But not this winter. We've seen warmer than normal temperatures simultaneously right across the country!

Tanada wrote:Here in NW Ohio we set a new high temp record on 09 Feb 2024 (63 F) breaking the record set on 09 Feb 2023 (59 F). This is the first February I can remember where we have not gotten a flake of snow and what little we got in January has all melted already.


Interwesting, we have had two mild winters back to back here in Oz, I have firewood still piled up out front because the area outback of the house where I store it is still full. We're halfway through Summer now and it's been very mild aside from one short heatwave. Also after 3 years and more of wet laNina cycle (unprecedented nearly) we were supposed to move into ElNino, but the dry only came for a few months and then it was heavy rains again.

No one is complaining, as I assume you men are happy to see the warmer temps up there, but it's not natural, it's all very odd and I wonder what this will lead to? I have thrown all those climate predictions in the trash now, nothing is going according to the models.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 12 Feb 2024, 18:44:23

theluckycountry wrote: we have had two mild winters back to back here in Oz, I have firewood still piled up out front because the area outback of the house where I store it is still full. We're halfway through Summer now and it's been very mild aside from one short heatwave. Also after 3 years and more of wet laNina cycle (unprecedented nearly) we were supposed to move into ElNino, but the dry only came for a few months and then it was heavy rains again.

No one is complaining, as I assume you men are happy to see the warmer temps up there, but it's not natural, it's all very odd and I wonder what this will lead to? I have thrown all those climate predictions in the trash now, nothing is going according to the models.


The climate predictions say the world is growing warmer and yet you are throwing climate predictions "in the trash" because Oz is getting warmer? :lol: :-D :roll: 8)

Image
IImagine that----Australia is warming due to climate change

I have the exact opposite opinion----IMHO you need to take those climate predictions out of your trash and read them more carefully.

Yes, climate predictions say the world will get warmer....and sure enough that is exactly what is happening in Australia, Alaska, and elsewhere around the world.

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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 13 Feb 2024, 09:04:07

Plantagenet wrote:
The climate predictions say the world is growing warmer and yet you are throwing climate predictions "in the trash" because Oz is getting warmer? :lol: :-D :roll: 8)


You're just trolling now plant and it doesn't behoove you. Go back to your brave little dreams on the ukraine thread
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 15 Feb 2024, 15:09:48

theluckycountry wrote:No one is complaining, as I assume you men are happy to see the warmer temps up there, but it's not natural, it's all very odd and I wonder what this will lead to? I have thrown all those climate predictions in the trash now, nothing is going according to the models.


No, I don't think too many people are happy that the essence of winter has, more or less, de facto, been banned. Yes, stupid people, maybe.

Of course, the 'accurate' models results were being discarded all along and no one told us. Surprise, I guess. This is like looking for one's keys under the street lamp even though they were lost where there was no light.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 16 Feb 2024, 02:28:22

jedrider wrote:
Of course, the 'accurate' models results were being discarded all along and no one told us. Surprise, I guess. This is like looking for one's keys under the street lamp even though they were lost where there was no light.


lol. Like looking in a dark room at midnight, for a black cat that isn't there. Tipping points and positive feedbacks that the lab rats can only guess at. But you don't get grants to guess, you have to put out a comprehensive statement declaring what will happen.

It was fun reading all the science up until a few years ago, they appeared to be making progress but it reminded my of my college years (senior high school down here) I did straight science and math and Biology was particularly fascinating. Discovering how plant cells converted sunlight into energy via chloroplasts and all the little organelles within animal cells that made them function.

Toward the end of my final year though the cracks in the knowledge began to show and I realized how little these experts actually knew. There was a level that scientific investigation simply couldn't penetrate, the real "How and why" was missing and I was glad I was pursuing engineering and not the biological sciences.
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