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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 09 Feb 2024, 17:51:55

theluckycountry wrote:Out of the hundreds of posters on this forum that have over the years believed in an EV transition there is only one left. He must work for the industry I suspect, or be a paid astroturfer :roll: No rational person would still be promoting them otherwise.
This forum has always had a doomer lean to it, not a cornucopian lean. There were never hundreds of posters pushing for an EV transition. And your comment about me working for the EV industry is just silly. I have pointed out many inconvenient truths about EV during my long posting history here.

kublikhan wrote:Nov 04, 2008 - The pure EVs you mentioned like the Imiev or the Aptera, those are not a replacement for what I currently drive. You are basically asking me to pay more money to get less of a car. It just doesn't make financial sense to me. The fact that they are not available yet and that they dodge simple questions like battery life does not help. I was considering a hybrid for my last car purchase, but went with an ICE instead because the economics made more sense.


kublikhan wrote:Nov 12, 2008 -The average American car owner gets a new car every 8 years. If the payoff is longer than that window, then it doesn't really make economic sense for that owner to go the EV route. Since battery technology is constantly improving, and gasoline prices are constantly changing, I think it makes more sense to go the ICE route today.


kublikhan wrote:Nov 16, 2011 - Electric cars are neither cheap nor easy. They cary a large premium over their ICE counterparts.
The Chevrolet Cruze, which the Volt is based on, has an MSRP of $16,720, or about 42% of the $40,000 MSRP price of the Volt.

The GEM es cart(I refuse to call these things "cars"), has an MSRP of $8,800 and top speed of 25mph. Here's a gas powered cart on sale for $2500 that has a top speed of 40 mph, just 31% of the price of the GEM es.

Then there is the range and refueling restrictions electric vehicles impose. The Volt had to go with an ICE extender because of the huge price of batteries that would result if it had gone all electric and tried to match the range of it's gasoline counterparts. And the standard charge takes 8-10 hours on these things, restricting refueling options.

Look, I don't want to rag on electric cars all day. I know they have advantages too. I just think we need to be honest here about them. And I honestly don't see them going mainstream at this point with the current price of batteries and gasoline.


kublikhan wrote:Nov 16, 2011 - The volt is two and a half times more expensive than it's ICE counterpart. The fact that taxpayers are subsidizing a portion of this bill does not change this fact. I am not going to spend 2.5 times as much for an electric version of an ICE car. Apparently I am not alone in this feeling:
The Chevrolet Volt hasn’t exactly taken off as expected, with only about 4,000 U.S. sales so far, but that’s OK with GM’s top brass, according to USA Today.

That’s because the Volt acts as an important catalyst for the Chevrolet Cruze, one of the top-selling vehicles in the country since its launch last fall. Chevy has sold 187,524 Cruzes year-to-date through September.
Putting aside my unwillingness to pay, how about people's inability to pay in this depressed economy. Telling people their next car purchase will be 2.5 times as expensive because they should go electric, many might simply say "I cannot afford that". If gasoline prices skyrocket or there are shortages/rationing, it would be more productive in that case to explore alternative means of transportation: curtailing car trips, Mass transit, car pooling, bicycling, or god forbid: walking. Expecting people to be able to pony up that much cash for something beyond their reach, you might as well just say "let them eat cake".

[The Volt's] range was designed to cover commuting by 75% of the American public. Certainly I am on the low side of that equation, a single charge could last me 2 or 3 days. And when you refuel at home, and at work, the perception of "restriction" can be so small as to be invisible.
Range anxiety and refueling(recharging) locations is a very real concern of potential buyers. It is the entire reason the Volt is not a complete electric and is a hybrid design. If we were talking ICE range with an electric, we are stating to talk about Tesla price range there. I know all about the "75% of commutes" arguments, I have heard them before. And I don't necessarily disagree with them either. But the fact remains this is an additional hindrance of electrics compared to the ease and versatility ICEs offer and you should not try to brush the issue aside as "almost invisible".


kublikhan wrote:Mar 04, 2013 - More and more car companies are looking at the EV market and concluding they can't do what you are asking: make an affordable EV car with the range, performance, comfort,etc that consumers demand. Many are giving up or going bankrupt instead.


kublikhan wrote:Mar 11, 2013 - And that is the crux of the problem with EVs. You can get the equivalent or better performance from a gas burner at half the price.


kublikhan wrote:Sep 12, 2016 -
Outcast_Searcher wrote:I'm certainly interested in such a car. At this point, however, there is so much change going on in the EV industry, including many new models and (reportedly) dropping battery prices, that I'm inclined to wait to see what develops for a few years. Meanwhile my 2015 Corolla will serve nicely. (I wish my 2003 car had waited several more years to develop intermittent annoying problems, but them's the breaks).
That's exactly how I feel. I want to wait for those battery prices to fall and see the 1st gen kinks get worked out. And I am hoping to get another 100,000 miles out of the Corolla in the meantime. It just rolled over the first 100,000.


kublikhan wrote:May 22, 2019 - Been reading some comments in the Tesla forum. Guys who drank the kool aid hardcore and splurged into the stock margin style. Now that the stock is tanking there are some unpleasant margin calls and unhappy investors.

Why would we sell last December when we were told Q1 might be profitable and Tesla would be profitable every quarter after that?

If we were told they were going to have a major delivery problems and a big loss in Q1, and probably a loss in Q2, you would have a point.... Now I know there might be a loss in Q2, but I'm trapped with margin calls and more than a 7 figure paper loss because I believed Elon, so I'm completely screwed and have to hope for a recovery to at least 320 the next few months.
I’m in the exact same boat actually, 6 figures loss still but very close to 7. Margin call looming. Now, this is gonna bite me, but Tesla also! Very likely that I’m gonna cancel my MX P100DL order, because of the impact of Elon telegraphing Wall street the 10 months till bankruptcy.


kublikhan wrote:Mar 20, 2023 - EVs have their issues. They cost more($34k for the EV Kona vs $22k for the ICE version), have less range, have less refueling stations compared to ICE, take longer to charge, L2 charger is extra, fires harder to put out, weight more, Tesla repair costs are higher, etc. There are plenty of legitimate issues with EVs.


kublikhan wrote:Jan 13, 2024 - Tesla seems to be favoring manufacturing practices that emphasize cheap production cost at the expense of repairability. Battery packs that are part of the car's structure and glued in, gigacasting, etc. Gigacasting allows Tesla to make cars with less parts and cheaper. However critics argue that gigacast cars are: more difficult and expensive to repair, more difficult to recycle, and more likely to be scrapped in the event of structural damage to the car.


kublikhan wrote:Jan 30, 2024 - If the traditional US automakers continue to favor EV trucks like the Ford Lightning, I would not be surprised to see them continue to languish compared to their rivals.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 09 Feb 2024, 20:58:46

In January Cold, The Texas Electricity Grid Held-Up... Barely
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/januar ... eld-barely

Dec 2023 Report: Electric vehicle acceptance increasing in Texas, though actual ownership decreased

Electric vehicle ownership has decreased in Texas from 2021 to 2023, with many Texans concerned about scant access to charging stations and high purchase cost

https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/arti ... decreased/

Lucky for them! The whole state would have ground to a halt if it was relying on EV's for transport. Most stories say 5% of cars in Texas are EV, but that's a lie. Most EV data still incorporates ICE cars
If you’re looking for a used EV in Texas and have a bit more of a budget, there are over 500 cars listed under $30K: Toyota Prius Primes, Chevy Bolts, Honda Clarity, and Audi A3 hybrids
https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/ ... ends-stats

The entire EV industry was built on lies. Is it any wonder investors across all units of it have lost their shirts in the past year. But the big hits were no doubt the private pension funds, the managers of such taking kickbacks to funnel mom and pop savings into the sector.

US EV charging networks, down 70 to 80%
EV makers, majors down 30% and more, most startups wiped out completely
EV Battery makers? From China to Korea to the UK, all down, even though Lithium prices collapsed. Why? We have reached peak EV and demand is cratering.



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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 09 Feb 2024, 21:28:11

Electric vehicle ownership has decreased in Texas from 2021 to 2023, with many Texans concerned about scant access to charging stations and high purchase cost
That article used survey data to determine EV ownership. That is an insanely stupid method to determine EV ownership. It would have been far better to look at vehicle registration data:

Texas EV registration by Model Year

Year Registrations
2023 94,358
2022 42,093
2021 33,915

Total EV's in Texas as of February 6, 2024: 254,836 EVs
Texas Electric Vehicle (EV) Registration

As you can clearly see, annual EV registrations in Texas have nearly tripled between 2021 and 2023. They have not decreased.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby mousepad » Sat 10 Feb 2024, 09:09:42

kublikhan wrote:That is an insanely stupid method to determine EV ownership.


Very hard to say without details of the survey, of course.
Could it be that large corporations and gov are buying ev fleets to convince the public how green they are? All the while normal people are done with ev?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 10 Feb 2024, 13:09:53

mousepad wrote:Could it be that large corporations and gov are buying ev fleets to convince the public how green they are? All the while normal people are done with ev?
According to lucky normal people are brainwashed by green propaganda so we shouldn't put too much stock in their buying decisions. He thinks it's the corporations who are the smart ones making intelligent buying decisions without the green propaganda. So if they are buying EV fleets that's the data that matters. Personally I think total sales is a better metric to look at as it captures both sources of sales.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 10 Feb 2024, 14:22:58

Jan 16 2024 - Despite all the doom, gloom, and wishful thinking from the anti-EV crowd, the numbers paint a narrative of swift expansion in the commercial EV and ZEV (Zero-Emission Vehicle) markets. CALSTART’s latest figures reveal a remarkable 250% growth in the zero-emission heavy truck market.

While electric semis like the ones from Tesla and Freightliner tend to grab the headlines, it’s the commercial van segment that’s seeing the most rapid rates of EV adoption. According to CALSTART, the US has seen the deployment of more than 14,000 battery-electric cargo vans, with a significant surge of 11,835 units deployed in the first half of 2023. That is a staggering 461% increase in deployments compared to CALSTART’s previous report.

“My biggest takeaway from the latest update is just how quickly this market is growing,” explains Lund. “Especially considering the data only covers the first half of 2023, it’s encouraging to see the ‘hockey stick’ exponential growth. Deployments have increased by an order of magnitude since the first iteration of this report (January, 2022) – and all that in spite of a global pandemic, supply chain challenges and economic volatility. This tells me that the market, while still relatively small compared to the overall truck market, has some serious momentum.”
What EV sales slump? Commercial EV deployments are soaring!

Snack giant Frito-Lay has launched its first 100% all-electric truck fleet at one of its North Carolina distribution sites. It looks as though it’s deploying Ford’s two-seater cutaway model with a 68kWh lithium-ion battery and a range of 126 miles.

The PepsiCo subsidiary says that the South Charlotte site is a pilot for future electric depots. It’s set a target of deploying 700 electric vehicles before year-end and achieving net zero emissions by 2040.
Frito-Lay unveils its first all-electric truck fleet in the US

Jan 15 2024 - The largest privately owned freight carrier in North America has recently incorporated a dozen BEV Class-8 electric semis into its California fleet. This addition complements its extensive inventory of over 300 all-electric assets.

Estes added twelve Freightliner eCascadia electric semis to its West Coast operations through the company’s Banning, California terminal. The trucks, which offer up to 230 miles of range from a single charge, are destined for local pickup and delivery assignments, according to a statement from the company.

Estes is the latest in what seems to be an ever-growing list of fleet customers who have put the Freightliner-built eCascadias into real-world service. A list that now includes Coca-Cola, Schneider, CarMax, and even Tesla Semi pilot program partner Frito-Lay.

“It’s fair to say these EV trucks caught our drivers by surprise in how much they enjoyed operating them, all of whom noted how quiet, smooth and agile they were,” said Michael Haynes, Banning terminal manager, told the American Journal of Transportation. “It’s exciting to see Estes continue investing in and testing promising, new technologies and equipment that allow us to serve our customers to the best of our ability.”
US’ largest private freight carrier adds 12 electric semis to its fleet
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 10 Feb 2024, 14:47:31

February 8, 2024 - Talk of an implosion of the U.S. electric vehicle market is verging on ridiculous.

While there are some serious challenges surrounding EVs—such as the need to build out the nation’s charging infrastructure—automakers are on track to continue on a path of substantial growth.

Leading forecasters agree that sales and market share will continue to grow in 2024. But they disagree on the rate of growth.

Despite the storm clouds, sales were strong in 2023. U.S. consumers bought 1.19 million all-electric vehicles last year, up 46 percent from the prior year. EVs had a 7.6 percent share of overall car and light truck sales, up from 5.9 percent in the prior year.

I gathered 2024 U.S. automotive forecasts from AutoPacific, Cox and S&P Global Mobility. Their projections show increases in EV sales ranging from about 20 percent, from AutoPacific, to more than 30 percent from the others, compared to the prior year. “EV sales are increasing faster than any other segment in the industry,” said Michelle Krebs, executive auto analyst for Cox.

A major impediment is that the market doesn’t have enough EVs that cost $35,000 or less, said Ed Kim, president and chief analyst at AutoPacific. “We have too many EVs now that are at luxury price points,” he said, referring to the many models that are priced at $50,000 and above. This is one of the major reasons his firm is expecting growth to slow compared to 2023.

Several more affordable models are set for release in 2024, such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Volvo EX30. But it will still be a few years before just about every automaker has one or more affordable options. Kim predicts 2026 will be a likely inflection point for low-cost EVs. Some of the models that may be available then: a Tesla that will sell for $25,000, and a new version of the Chevrolet Bolt from General Motors.

Michael Brisson, an economist for Moody’s Analytics, said gasoline prices are a key variable. If prices spike, it helps EV sales. The major theme he sees is that automakers know EV demand will grow, but don’t have a firm grasp on the rate of growth or the timing.

The shift to electric vehicles is far from a smooth ride, but the numbers—both 2023 sales and 2024 forecasts—do not support the idea that we are in some kind of apocalyptic event for this segment of the auto market. The forecasters expect EV market share to reach 9 percent to 11 percent this year, which would be a substantial increase from the prior year.

If market share grows at that pace despite the many challenges, this bodes well for the middle and latter part of this decade, when there will be many more models available and charging infrastructure should be much more robust. In the meantime, we need to avoid reading too much into individual data points.
U.S. Electric Vehicles Sales Are Poised to Rise a Lot in 2024, Despite What You May Have Heard
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 12 Feb 2024, 05:56:14

mousepad wrote:
Could it be that large corporations and gov are buying ev fleets to convince the public how green they are? All the while normal people are done with ev?


Well if major corporations like Disney and the makers of bud lite are willing to sacrifice billions in profits just to promote transgenderism, nothing would surprise me anymore. They are all in bed with the government as we know so perhaps that's where the guidance came from.

I know Tesla's profits are massively underwritten by the government enforced credits system, just more cash they can burn selling cars below cost. Of course like all the incentives, this will one day be withdrawn which will make real cars cheaper still.

Tesla Rakes In $9 Billion From Carmakers Failing to Sell Enough EVs
Selling regulatory credits is a tidy business for Tesla. It earns them by making and selling electric vehicles, then sells the credits to manufacturers whose new-vehicle fleets exceed emissions limits set by various authorities, including in China, the European Union and state of California.

Tesla bears little to no incremental cost earning the credits, so the sales are virtually pure profit.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/tesla-rakes ... -1.2033025
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 12 Feb 2024, 19:56:20

If we follow what's happening in California, Norway, China, and the Third World, many will use them as secondary vehicles, they will come up with surprising costs for battery replacement, they'll have to be charged more often at home as charging station companies lose money, will be mostly overpriced for a global population that can't afford them, and because like the rest of renewable energy have low energy quantity and return plus driven by for-profit corporations will lead to higher resource and energy use per capita.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 13 Feb 2024, 09:14:05

Segways, overpriced segways. Any EV with a decent sized battery has a break even point against ICE at about 7 years. That's for carbon emissions, that's because so much is generated during the manufacture of the batteries. Carbon free was the big selling point that sucked the masses in and it was a Lie. I still can't believe how stupid the average EV buyer was. I have met one or two people who bought them and I won't have a conversation with them. Stupidity is dangerous and driving an EV just signals to the whole world that you're a tosser, a person that can't think for themselves.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 13 Feb 2024, 13:18:25

theluckycountry wrote:Segways, overpriced segways. Any EV with a decent sized battery has a break even point against ICE at about 7 years. That's for carbon emissions, that's because so much is generated during the manufacture of the batteries. Carbon free was the big selling point that sucked the masses in and it was a Lie. I still can't believe how stupid the average EV buyer was. I have met one or two people who bought them and I won't have a conversation with them. Stupidity is dangerous and driving an EV just signals to the whole world that you're a tosser, a person that can't think for themselves.
Since you do all of your reading from zerohedge and other doomer rags I am not surprised you would come to that conclusion. But if you want to look at the actual facts they paint an entirely different picture.

One of the most common false claims made against EVs is that they offer little or no climate benefit over conventional cars, due to the emissions associated with making their battery. It takes less than two years for a typical EV to pay off the “carbon debt” from its battery. In reality, therefore, an EV in Europe will pay off its carbon debt after around 11,000 miles (18,000km), according to the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). Moreover, the lifecycle benefits of EVs are increasing over time as electricity grids get cleaner.

In a 2021 lifecycle analysis, the ICCT found that an EV bought in Europe would cut emissions by 66-69%, relative to a conventional car. By 2030, this emissions saving would rise to 74-77%, the ICCT said, “as the electricity mix continues to decarbonise”.
Factcheck: 21 misleading myths about electric vehicles

You glide silently out of the Tesla in your sleek new electric Model 3, satisfied you're looking great and doing your bit for the planet. But keep going - you'll have to drive another 13,500 miles before you're doing less harm to the environment than a gas-guzzling saloon. That's the result of a Reuters analysis of data from a model that calculates the lifetime emissions of vehicles.

The Tesla 3 scenario above was for driving in the United States, where 23% of electricity comes from coal-fired plants, with a 54 kilowatt-hour (kWh) battery and a cathode made of nickel, cobalt and aluminum, among other variables. It was up against a gasoline-fueled Toyota Corolla weighing 2,955 pounds with a fuel efficiency of 33 miles per gallon.
When do electric vehicles become cleaner than gasoline cars?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 13 Feb 2024, 19:31:48

Outsource the pollution.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 13 Feb 2024, 19:48:20

The EV Slowdown Isn't Over Yet, RBC Says https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ev-sl ... t-rbc-says

He notes that consensus for Tesla is "calling for 14% growth in 2024 vs 2023, which would be a notable downshift from 2023’s 40% growth level, but investors are worried about price cutting to achieve consensus level volumes."


Falling rate of sales and cutting of prices predicted to be ongoing. The EV complex is like the proverbial oil tanker at sea, even with the engines cut it will take a long time to slow down and stop. Voices in the mass media are telling the story but at a rate concomitant with the slowdown. They are, as always, announcing yesterday's news. But even yesterday's news is bad enough. No way to paint lipstick on this Pig now.

The Tesla share price is down 24% this year! https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla ... 22251.html

Compare that to Toyota over the same period https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TM?.tsrc=fin-srch
Up 27% The share prices of the pair have basically reversed.
Anyone betting on EV is clearly losing their shirt. And Tesla is the darling stock! Now go look at Ford and GM, what would you expect to see happening to their stock? Well they are going up, why? Because they have proved to the market that they are pulling out of EV.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 13 Feb 2024, 19:51:48

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 13 Feb 2024, 21:39:59

theluckycountry wrote:Now go look at Ford and GM, what would you expect to see happening to their stock? Well they are going up, why? Because they have proved to the market that they are pulling out of EV.
Can you go a single post without making up BS? Ford and GM are cutting back on planned EV spending. They are not 'pulling out of EV'.

Is Ford shifting its electric vehicle efforts away from large EVs like the F-150 Lightning, and focusing on translating the ethos of the Model T into the EV era?

Taken at face value, remarks from Ford CEO Jim Farley on Tuesday suggest that may be the case. During the company’s Q4 2023 earnings, Farley and top executives summed that the automaker plans to shift the launch timing on some of its Gen 2 electric vehicles, with more attention paid to the cost and efficiency of its EVs—given, as was mentioned multiple times, a “new market reality.”

He included a nod that appears to be looking beyond the Gen 2 EVs that are currently being finalized, to the company's Gen 3 EVs that are apparently just at the platform stage.

“Now this is important because we made a bet in silence two years ago, we developed a super-talented skunkworks team to create a low-cost EV platform,” Farley said, referring to a team that Ford separately verified to Green Car Reports is led by Alan Clark, who led early development of the Tesla Model 3. “It was a small group, small team, some of the best EV engineers in the world. And it was separate from the Ford mothership; it was a startup. And they’ve developed a flexible platform that will not only deploy to several types of vehicles but will be a large install base for software and services that we’re now seeing at Pro,” Farley added.

“All of our EV teams are ruthlessly focused on cost and efficiency in our EV products, because the ultimate competition is going to be the affordable Tesla and the Chinese OEMs.”

“Breakthrough efficiency” for Gen 2 EVs
All that said about Gen 3, Farley did tout the strength of its upcoming Gen 2 products, which likely still arrive in 2025. The automaker has previously confirmed a full-size electric pickup codenamed T3 and referred to as the Millennium Falcon of trucks, and a three-row electric SUV due in 2025 with 350 miles of range from a 100-kwh battery pack.

“Our next Gen 2 products will be profitable in the first 12 months of their launch,” the CEO affirmed.

“And those products will have breakthrough efficiency compared to our Gen 1 products,” Farley added. “And they’re going to be packed with innovations that customers are going to be excited to pay for.”
Ford seeks smaller, lower-cost EVs to rival $25,000 Tesla, China

What Was Actually Said
GM's existing EV strategy is not, in fact, changing. Barra doubled down on "eliminating tailpipe emissions from light-duty vehicles by 2035" in yesterday's investment call. In fact, the plan for 2024 hasn't changed a bit.

On the all-electric front, the automaker has plans to introduce or expand production of its Silverado EV and GMC Sierra EV pickup trucks, the all-new Equinox electric SUV, and luxurious Cadillac Escalade IQ and Celestiq (along with the existing Lyriq).

EV Sales On Track
In this week's investor call, GM's executives also noted that EV sales are on track to be profitable in 2024, should the automaker manage to finally iron out the rest of its software and production problems that have plagued most of its all-electric vehicle launches, including the Cadillac Lyriq, GMC Hummer, and led to a temporary stop-sale of the Chevy Blazer EV. Last year, GM dealt with a semiconductor shortage, UAW strike production stoppage, shifting federal policies, and plummeting EV prices thanks to Tesla's aggressive price-cutting moves.


For 2024, GM claims that it's on track to move between 200,000 and 300,000 electric vehicles this year across its U.S. and China markets, with the U.S. market achieving at least a 10 percent EV product sales mix by the end of the year (up from 7 percent in 2023). The company also claimed that it has at least 100,000 reservations for electric pickups across its Chevrolet, GMC, and Hummer brands. GM claims that if it achieves 200,000 EV sales, it will record a variable profit on its EV models.
Will GM's Shifting Hybrid Strategy Disrupt Its EV Business Plans?

February 13, 2024 - Global electric vehicle sales jumped 69% in January from a year earlier. Sales of fully-electric cars, or battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrids hit 1.1 million in January, up from 660,000 in January 2023.
Global EV sales up 69% y/y in Jan
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 14 Feb 2024, 04:29:52

kublikhan wrote:
February 13, 2024 - Global electric vehicle sales jumped 69% in January from a year earlier. Sales of fully-electric cars, or battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrids hit 1.1 million in January, up from 660,000 in January 2023.
Global EV sales up 69% y/y in Jan


:shock: I have never seen a more blatant case of cherry picking in my life. Here is what the headline actually says.
LONDON (Reuters) - Global electric vehicle sales jumped 69% in January from a year earlier but were down 26% from December, reflecting subsidy cuts or tighter rules in Germany and France and seasonally weaker sales in China, market research firm Rho Motion said on Wednesday.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/globa ... 07609.html

Just another case of kub ignoring reality by dragging up out of date data, pathetic!

The story continues
Last month, when reporting results, General Motors said it would launch plug-in hybrid vehicles in North America, reversing a strategy of bypassing hybrid powertrains in that market. U.S. hybrid sales have been rising as consumers balk at high EV prices and recharging infrastructure challenges.


It's quite clear GM is abandoning manufacture of EV vehicles in favor of gasoline powered hybrids, which in their own way are really a niche vehicle suited to city drivers with access to cheap home solar. More specifically, the retired class or those with 2 or more cars so as the hybrid can stay at home and recharge during daylight hours. One mornings driving, one days charging.

I personally know an older couple, retired, who have a Mitsubishi Outlander plugin hybrid. It has a range of 60km on battery alone, perfect for a trip to the supermarket and to the doctors once a week. They didn't opt for the expense of a DC fast charger in their home so it takes all day and more to charge off the solar panels on their roof. In reality the fast charger would draw more current than their 5kVA solar system could provide so they were smart there. The battery has a 10 year 150,000 km warranty, not bad but still it consigns the car to the scrapyard long before it's mechanically worn out.

What happens is that the electric-only range gets smaller and smaller until you are basically driving a gasoline powered car. In other words you feel 'green' for a decade and then you have to upgrade if you want to keep your bragging rights. Unfortunately this ignorant old couple know nothing about mechanics and they brag that they haven't engaged the conventional engine on this hybrid in nearly 4 months.

As someone with basic mechanical knowledge I know that this is the worst thing you can do. The fuel in their tank will be going bad and could potentially foul the injectors when they try to start it. Also all the running gear degrades without regular use and the oil coating on the moving parts within the engine is bled off resulting in much higher wear. Stupid people making stupid decisions just so they can brag to their neighbors. Meanwhile every day they have a ticking timebomb charging in the garage under their home.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 14 Feb 2024, 07:08:57

theluckycountry wrote: I have never seen a more blatant case of cherry picking in my life. Here is what the headline actually says.
LONDON (Reuters) - Global electric vehicle sales jumped 69% in January from a year earlier but were down 26% from December, reflecting subsidy cuts or tighter rules in Germany and France and seasonally weaker sales in China, market research firm Rho Motion said on Wednesday.
*sigh* I explained this to you a half dozen times now and you still don't get it. ALL car sales go down from December to January, not just EV. It's the cold weather where people don't want to go out and shop for cars in the middle of winter. Plus dealers throw a bunch on a bunch of year end sales to boost sales in December relative to January. So do you get it now? Do you understand now giving year over year figures is not cherry picking? You can look at month to month figures as well but then you have to do a seasonal adjustment.

The automotive industry has some definite seasonal trends, with peak demand occurring in the spring and fall, and lowest sales in January, February, and into the beginning of March. In the United States, car dealers often experience difficulty selling inventory during the winter months, when consumers are less motivated to brave the cold to make a car purchase.

* Historically, December has been a slow sales month for the U.S. auto industry; however, starting in 2013, December sales improved as car dealers have offered better deals and discounts to clear their inventory before the end of the year.

Auto sales traditionally drop to their lowest levels of the year from January through early March.
How Important Are Seasonal Trends in the Automotive Sector?

January 2024 auto sales are expected to decelerate from the quickening realized in December, with the pace of demand falling back to a SAAR of 15.2 million units

With volume for the month projected at 1.09 million units, January 2024 U.S. auto sales are estimated to translate to a sales pace of 15.2 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR). While this would be an improvement from the year-ago level, the result reflects a potential preview to the upcoming calendar year whereby month-to-month volatility is expected to remain in the market. Contributors to the chill in the January sales pace include an expected hangover from the solid closeout to sales in December 2023, combined with some inclement weather effects.

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January 2024 US auto sales feel the chill

All car sales in the US fell from 1,433,266 in December 2023 to 1,092,474 in January 2024. That is a fall of 27%.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 14 Feb 2024, 07:14:54

theluckycountry wrote:It's quite clear GM is abandoning manufacture of EV vehicles in favor of gasoline powered hybrids
Again, they are not abandoning their EV vehicles. They are stepping back from their all in on EVs plan. Similar to Ford and Toyota's plan of selling a mix of gasoline, hybrid, and EVs. Seems perfectly reasonable to me. I always questioned these '100% EVs by X date' to begin with.

theluckycountry wrote:What happens is that the electric-only range gets smaller and smaller until you are basically driving a gasoline powered car. In other words you feel 'green' for a decade and then you have to upgrade if you want to keep your bragging rights.
Except that's not what happens. The computer in the car monitors how many fast charges you do. If you fast charge too many times it will slow down the charge rate to prevent you from degrading the battery. here's an article talking about this feature for Teslas:

[We learned this week that Tesla is limiting the charging rate when Supercharging on vehicles that have accumulated too many DC fast-charge events.]
Tesla explains why it limits Supercharging speed after high numbers of DC charges

theluckycountry wrote:As someone with basic mechanical knowledge I know that this is the worst thing you can do. The fuel in their tank will be going bad and could potentially foul the injectors when they try to start it.
You are missing a piece of the puzzle. When car companies design their cars, they know very well that gasoline can go stale. So they monitor the age of the gasoline. If the gasoline starts geting too old, the engine will start up to burn off the gas before it gets too old. It keeps doing this until enough gas is burned off and enough fresh gas is added in. This prevents any engine damage. It is called "Fuel System Maintenance". I read about this back when the GM Volt first came out but other plugin hybrids have this feature as well. Here's a customer of the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV running into this issue:

Yesterday when I hit the start button, ICE kicked in and central display said it was in charge mode even though there was 40 km electric range available (no heating, no A/C, it was 25 degrees outside) I tried to stop it by hitting the charge button which had no effect. Then I released there was another message on central display saying the vehicle was in "Fuel System Maintenance" mode. I drove to nearest petrol station running in charge mode and filled up (it was half full) then when started it did not go in to charge mode.
That's interesting. Congratulations :mrgreen: ! There was some discussion in a thread But I don't recall hearing it had actually happened to anyone!
Fuel System Maintenance

theluckycountry wrote:Also all the running gear degrades without regular use and the oil coating on the moving parts within the engine is bled off resulting in much higher wear. Stupid people making stupid decisions just so they can brag to their neighbors.
The engineers who designed the car thought of that too. They have something called "Engine Maintenance Mode" where the engine will start at regular intervals to keep the parts lubricated. Here is an article talking about this issue over a decade ago for the GM Volt:

As Chevrolet very often point outs in marketing its 2011 Volt extended-range electric car, more than 70 percent of U.S. vehicles cover less than 40 miles a day.

That means that if you recharge a Volt every night, and cover less than that distance daily, your car might never, ever need to switch on its range-extending gasoline engine to generate electricity.

Which leads to a whole host of questions carmakers have never had to consider: Will the engine run right if it's never started? Will the gasoline get stale? And so forth.

The answer is something called "maintenance mode," in which the Volt decides its engine needs to be switched on to circulate the gasoline, warm up the system, and otherwise run for a while to keep everything in good operating order.

The video below shows the maintenance mode screen on a Volt belonging to Andy Oury. He's a battery systems engineer at General Motors whose commute is short enough that his car almost never has to switch on its engine.

Maintenance mode for the Volt's 1.4-liter four-cylinder engine took about two minutes, Oury said, and consumed roughly one-tenth of a gallon of gas.

As of the video, posted Monday, Oury had covered 1,554 miles, almost all of it on grid power from recharging his battery pack at night.
Even A 3000-MPG Chevy Volt Has To Turn On The Engine Sometimes
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 14 Feb 2024, 08:53:29

kublikhan wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:What happens is that the electric-only range gets smaller and smaller until you are basically driving a gasoline powered car. In other words you feel 'green' for a decade and then you have to upgrade if you want to keep your bragging rights.
Except that's not what happens. The computer in the car monitors how many fast charges you do. If you fast charge too many times it will slow down the charge rate to prevent you from degrading the battery. here's an article talking about this feature for Teslas:

He's talking about normal degradation of battery capacity. Nothing to do with fast charge.
And you're right Lucky. I've got 2 neighbors who own toyota prius. And after a couple of years the battery was degraded such that it was only good for maybe pulling out of a driveway before the engine had to kick in. Who knows if that's normal. Maybe the harsh winters did it.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 15

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 14 Feb 2024, 10:13:00

mousepad wrote:He's talking about normal degradation of battery capacity. Nothing to do with fast charge.
And you're right Lucky. I've got 2 neighbors who own toyota prius. And after a couple of years the battery was degraded such that it was only good for maybe pulling out of a driveway before the engine had to kick in. Who knows if that's normal. Maybe the harsh winters did it.
It's perfectly normal for hybrids to run the engine. Doesn't mean the battery is degraded.

I am a new Prius owner. I have a 2014 model. When I leave the house the gas engine starts before I get out of the drive way. This is not normal is it.
...
Yes, it is perfectly acceptable. It depends on lots of things. Throttle position, state of charge of the high voltage battery, temperature of the outside air (hot or cold), cat converter warm and light off.
There are so many variables, so just be assured it is fine for the engine to run after start up.
When should gas engine start?

The 3rd gen Prius will always run the engine on startup after it has been sitting for several hours. This is annoying, because sometimes I just want to move the car a few feet without using any gas. The gen 4 does not start the engine until you give it enough throttle, or the battery is depleted. Why is this?
...
It does it to warm up the catalytic converter and lubricate the engine under low load.

The gen4 changed this so that it doesn't start the engine until you need it, and it doesn't need to do the same warm-up procedure. I haven't witnessed this but I've read about it (I have gen3), so I can't say anything in detail.

My car uses a noticable amount of fuel in the first minute warm up and it depletes the hybrid battery as you drive forcing recharging from the engine, which is more inefficient again.

Gen4's avoid this issue by starting up and supplying power as soon as you need more power than the battery can comfortably supply, rather than going through a warm-up stage which stops the engine providing power unless you really floor it and override the warm-up stage.
...
If I need to just move the car a few metres I just fire it up and whack it straight into EV mode. Works fine for me until I run low on battery or hit 35km/h
...
This is the way. If you're just playing musical chairs on the driveway or something else like that, if you just slap that EV button real quick, as long as the battery is charged enough, you can do your thing without the engine kicking in.
Why does the gen 3 Prius always start the engine after a cold start, but gen 4 doesn’t?

And a plugin hybrid does not 'basically turn into an ice' from normal battery degradation. It's all electric range will be cut down, but it still will be able to do all electric mode, just with shorter range. I think GM's warranty was for 10-40% degradation after 8 years. Tesla real world data shows only around 10% degradation after 200,000 miles:

Tesla’s Impact report claims that their Model S and X vehicles are retaining approximately 90% of their usable capacity after traveling 200,000 miles.

Considering that an average personal car travels that distance over its lifetime, this means batteries are likely to outlast the rest of the electric vehicle in most cases. And with gasoline internal combustion cars typically reaching their end-of-life when expensive engine or transmission repairs are required, it is reasonable to think that the simplicity of electric drivetrain will allow most EVs to have longer useful lives beyond 200,000 miles.
Should you worry about EV battery degradation?
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