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World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

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World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 17 Jan 2018, 11:51:07

The Global Risks Report 2018

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This year’s report covers more risks than ever, but focuses in particular on four key areas: environmental degradation, cybersecurity breaches, economic strains and geopolitical tensions. And in a new series called “Future Shocks” the report cautions against complacency and highlights the need to prepare for sudden and dramatic disruptions.
"This generation enjoys unprecedented technological, scientific and financial resources,” but is "the first generation to take the world to the brink of a systems breakdown”

When a risk cascades through a complex system, the danger is not of incremental damage but of “runaway collapse”—or, alternatively, a transition to a new, suboptimal status quo that becomes difficult to escape. For example, even though a runaway collapse of the global financial system was averted a decade ago, the global financial crisis triggered numerous economic, societal, political and geopolitical disruptions. Many are still only poorly understood, but they shape a “new normal” that in turn will create its own disruptions, spillovers and feedback loops in the months and years ahead.

As the pace of change accelerates, signs of strain are evident in many of the systems on which we rely. We cannot discount the possibility that one or more of these systems will collapse. Just as a piece of elastic can lose its capacity to snap back to its original shape, repeated stress can lead systems—organizations, economies, societies, the environment—to lose their capacity to rebound. If we exhaust our capacities to absorb disruption and allow our systems to become brittle enough to break, it is difficult to overstate the damage that might result.

Optimists, if there are any left, be warned: the Forum also identified several more tail risks.

- Simultaneous crop failures in the world’s bread-baskets
- Artificial intelligence “weeds” choke the internet
- New waves of populism in mature democracies, and nationalism drives tension around contested borders elsewhere
- Another financial crisis that overwhelms policy responses
- Bio-engineering and cognition-enhancing drugs for the wealthy entrench the gulf between haves and have-nots
- State-on-state conflict escalates unpredictably in the absence of international law addressing cyberwarfare

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World Entering 'Critical Period of Intensified Risks': Nuclear War, Extreme Weather Top List of 2018 Threats in Global Survey

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Extreme weather events and natural disasters are the likeliest global risks to occur in 2018, according to experts surveyed by the World Economic Forum.

WEF's latest Global Risks Report 2018, published Wednesday, showed that environmental disasters, cybercrime, large-scale involuntary migration and illicit trade were among the most notable risks, in terms of likelihood, facing the world this year.

As with previous reports, the top-ranking global risk in terms of impact was the use of weapons of mass destruction. But this was followed in the table of top 10 risks by three environmental risks: Extreme weather events, natural disasters and a failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation.

Stating that the planet is "on the brink," WEF noted that environmental risks have grown in prominence over the 13-year history of the report.

"Among the most pressing environmental challenges facing us are extreme weather events and temperatures; accelerating biodiversity loss; pollution of air, soil and water; failures of climate-change mitigation and adaptation; and transition risks as we move to a low-carbon future," the report said.

"However, the truly systemic challenge rests in the depth of the interconnectedness that exists both among these environmental risks and between them and risks in other countries," it added.


A Year After Trump, Davos Elite Fear Cyberattacks and War

The threat of large-scale cyberattacks and a “deteriorating geopolitical landscape” since the election of U.S. President Donald Trump have jumped to the top of the global elite’s list of concerns, the World Economic Forum said ahead of its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

The growing cyber-dependency of governments and companies, and the associated risks of hacking by criminals or hostile states, has replaced social polarization as a main threat to stability over the next decade, according to the WEF’s yearly assessment of global risks, published Wednesday

... 93 percent of respondents said they expect political or economic confrontations between major powers to worsen and nearly 80 percent expect an increase in risks associated with war involving major powers.

“To address complex issues like climate change, cyber-warfare and food security requires a multilateral response, but the political direction is going in exactly the opposite way,” ... “Trump is an example of this, but far from the only one.”

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The Next Financial Crisis Will Be Worse Than the Last One

... Companies have taken advantage of cheap money to increase their debt and buy their own stock, even though Trump and the GOP peddled the notion that decreasing their tax rate by a whopping 40 percent would move them toward diverting their money from the stock and bond markets into jobs and wages.

Financially speaking, 2018 will be a precarious year of more bubbles inflated by cheap money, followed by a leakage that will begin with the bond or debt markets. The GOP tax cuts won’t technically kick in monetarily for corporations until after the year is over in 2019, but the anticipation of extra funds will fuel more buybacks. This will help to provide cover for any rate hikes the Fed implements, because it provides corporations the ability to boost their own share prices further.

Meanwhile, the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and other smaller regulatory authorities in Washington will push for greater deregulation of the financial systems and banking industry on any level possible. If there is another financial crisis in 2018 or later, it will be worse than the last one because the system remains fundamentally unreformed, banks remain too big to fail and the Fed and other central banks continue to control the flow of funds to these banks (and through to the markets) by maintaining a cheap cost of funds.

Politically, no one in any position of power will do anything to fix any of this.

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 17 Jan 2018, 12:29:04

vox_mundi wrote:The Global Risks Report 2018

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Politically, no one in any position of power will do anything to fix any of this.

And, has there ever been a time since recorded history where the world was calm, all was peace, and there were no problems? I don't think so.

Has there ever been a time since, say, 1900's where people of power collectively did a fine job of mitigating the majority (much less all) of society's ills to the satisfaction of any group of meaningful size? Again, I don't think so.

So let's not pretend that this means 2018 is the year of guaranteed doom, though I know the fast crash doomers will.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby GHung » Wed 17 Jan 2018, 12:44:49

Outcast_Searcher wrote:So let's not pretend that this means 2018 is the year of guaranteed doom, though I know the fast crash doomers will.


Another binary strawman fro O_S.

Who, exactly, is "pretending that this means 2018 is the year of guaranteed doom?

Examples and names please.
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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 17 Jan 2018, 12:57:02

GHung wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:So let's not pretend that this means 2018 is the year of guaranteed doom, though I know the fast crash doomers will.


Another binary strawman fro O_S.

Who, exactly, is "pretending that this means 2018 is the year of guaranteed doom?

Examples and names please.

If 2018 changes, and fast crash doomers don't make short term in our face doom for sure type of forecasts, I'll take it back.

OTOH, given the post re economic armageddon I've already seen around this site, too late.

Get it now?

Oh, and in your mind this report was supposed to tell us all is well and no doom in sight?

What color is the sky in your world?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby GHung » Wed 17 Jan 2018, 13:07:08

What color is the sky in your world?


Not black and white, as you try to paint it. Saying things will get worse, all things considered, isn't the same as predicting doom, as you suggest. Seems you just want bad news banned from the discussion.

What you ignored is that the article is about RISKS; not about some doomish end game, as you insisted on characterizing it. I didn't see anything in the article about the world ending in 2018, just that liabilities for civilization are increasing, which I agree with. If you don't, make your case.
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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 17 Jan 2018, 14:50:37

Thanks, VoxMundi, for starting this interesting thread.

I think the World Economic Forum has it exactly right---the highest Global Risk with the largest potential impact comes from global warming. The winter we're having this year in Alaska is almost unbelievable. We're above freezing with rain right now in interior Alaska....overall our temps are running 20-25° above normal---for months now. And all over the globe similar weird weather is occurring .

And this is just the beginning......global warming is just going to get worse and worse thanks to the fraudulent Paris Accords that failed to cut CO2 emissions.

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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby GHung » Wed 17 Jan 2018, 14:59:10

Plantagenet wrote:Thanks, VoxMundi, for starting this interesting thread.

I think the World Economic Forum has it exactly right---the highest Global Risk with the largest potential impact comes from global warming. The winter we're having this year in Alaska is almost unbelievable. We're above freezing with rain right now in interior Alaska....overall our temps are running 20-25° above normal---for months now. And all over the globe similar weird weather is occurring .

And this is just the beginning......global warming is just going to get worse and worse thanks to the fraudulent Paris Accords that failed to cut CO2 emissions.

Cheers!


It is currently 13 degrees warmer in Anchorage than in Atlanta. Just saying....
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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 17 Jan 2018, 18:01:13

GHung wrote:
It is currently 13 degrees warmer in Anchorage than in Atlanta. Just saying....


Tell me about it. Farther north in central Alaska where I live it was raining this morning. Our temps are running 20-25°F above normal this winter.

CHEERS!
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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 11 Jan 2024, 14:36:37

The new 2024 update is out.

Clearly these folks are scared.

https://www.weforum.org/publications/gl ... port-2024/
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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 11 Jan 2024, 15:50:24

You'll own nothing and be happy
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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby careinke » Wed 17 Jan 2024, 21:40:50

I watched Klaus Schwab give his opening speech and apparently, rampant Libertarian misinformation is the biggest threat to the world. The theme of Davos this year is to regain trust. :shock:

That said, Klaus also introduced the the newly elected President of Argentina for his speech to the WEF. The introduction seemed to have soured old Klaus's mouth. It was fun to watch. :-D

Then President Milei gave his presentation and proceeded to rip the WEF and socialism apart. I certainly enjoyed it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfcd0gWNIog&list=PLSb0Y-9fq6accUJ00oMMWaItA65tDt3iH

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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 17 Jan 2024, 23:08:10

careinke wrote:
Then President Milei gave his presentation and proceeded to rip the WEF and socialism apart. I certainly enjoyed it.


He's quite right, I always draw similarities between them and Australia. Argentina has a small, 30 mil population, has great riches in minerals and farmland etc, yet it's a poverty stricken dump. The only difference between the two are their political models.
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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 18 Jan 2024, 09:39:33

I see very little linkage between Schwab and his blathering and the Global Risk Report.

I highly suggest reading the report or at least skimming it.

It will likely mean something different to me than you as I have been following the report since inception and the changes are thr most interesting thing. It is a flawed process but the only one I know of.
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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby careinke » Thu 18 Jan 2024, 15:32:08

Newfie wrote:I see very little linkage between Schwab and his blathering and the Global Risk Report.

I highly suggest reading the report or at least skimming it.

It will likely mean something different to me than you as I have been following the report since inception and the changes are the most interesting thing. It is a flawed process but the only one I know of.


Of course I read the reports, you need to understand your enemy. I do still have a ways to finish the 2024 reports.

My comments above were reporting on two presentations given, the Schwab opening comments, and President Milei's speech. One bashed Libertarian thinking and one supported it.

I suggest you watch some of the presentations. It is way easier to discerene their true feelings towards us proles.

Bottom line, I have a problem with a nongovernmental organizations setting government policy for the world.

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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 20 Jan 2024, 16:36:54

Well we are clearly talking past one another.

WFIW you and I share our opinion of Schwab.

I kinda doubt he has much to do with this report, it is too far down in the weeds for his enlightened holiness.

If he does have much to do with it then we are in far worse shape than it indicates.

Do you have any background in how the report is prepared? Have your read past reports?
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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 21 Jan 2024, 05:42:38

The message from Schwab and the wef has been clear for sometime. It's austerity, softened with imagery of drones delivering products you will never own. Their gross agendas can never be realized though while the world's economic systems continue to hold heads above water. But another GFC event that freezes world markets would allow governments to implement the necessary changes.

Such a concerted global effort would have seemed very problematic 5 years ago but the actions of governments globally over the corona virus proved they can and will act in unison (for the greater good)



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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 21 Jan 2024, 09:26:15

Carineke,

How you making out on the report? I am itching to share views but don’t want to prejudice your reading.
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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 21 Jan 2024, 18:54:16

WSJ Editor-in-Chief Admits To Davos Elites 'We No Longer Own The News'

Case in point, during a WEF discussion at Davos entitled "Defending Truth," Wall St. Journal EIC Emma Tucker lamented this loss of control over 'the facts,' as Modernity.news reports.

"I think there’s a very specific challenge for the legacy brands, like the New York Times and like the Wall Street Journal," Tucker said, adding "If you go back really not that long ago, as I say, we owned the news. We were the gatekeepers, and we very much owned the facts as well."

"If it said it in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, then that was a fact," she continued, adding "Nowadays, people can go to all sorts of different sources for the news and they’re much more questioning about what we’re saying."
https://modernity.news/2024/01/19/wsj-e ... -the-news/


Well if that's not an admission that mainstream news is bullshit I don't know what is.


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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby careinke » Tue 23 Jan 2024, 06:46:23

Newfie wrote:Carineke,

How you making out on the report? I am itching to share views but don’t want to prejudice your reading.


Sorry,

With the recent high tides, strong winds, record low temps, freezing pipes, multi-day power outages, and trees falling everywhere, I haven't kept up with my readings. 8O

I'll try to get to it soon.

Still on topic though, tonight I came across this youtube:

Pierre Poilievre BLASTS the World Economic Forum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcdHYcccg20

It's a fun piece to watch. I was not aware of him before tonight, but it looks like he may replace Canada's bastard Prime Minister, with the largest ever conservative win.

Pierre seems to share my opinion of the WEF.

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Re: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 23 Jan 2024, 10:19:36

Carinke,

Sorry for your extra work. Its the bane of a successful life, you acquire things that need looking after.

I however am laying in St Marrten rather bored. Burning my eyes out reading. We are awaiting some parts and also the passage of some rather nasty weather.URL=https://imgbox.com/mfUD7ojB]Image[/URL]
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