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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 25 Nov 2023, 21:44:00

Is anybody else seeing really unusually hot weather where they live?

2023 has been a record hot year for the earth, and the temperature has jumped up a record amount from prior years....and there have been record breaking heat waves and other weirdness all over the planet.

Up here is Alaska our weather is usually very predictable.....the days get short and the temperature goes down pretty much in lockstep as we head into winter.....but not this year.

Where I live we are running about 15-20° degrees warmer then our usual weather all through the month of November, while down in Anchorage they are setting all time snowfall records.

Alaska is on track to set a new record monthly average temperature for November by a huge amount.

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby Pops » Sat 25 Nov 2023, 22:50:00

We've commented on a very warm fall. We had only one freeze until lately. Totally anecdotal, I don't really watch the local news much so don't hear where we are comparatively. Look ing at the olde iphone, I see the average high for today is 53ºF and we've been well into the 60's until the last week.
It is hard to know, we're dead in the middle where pacific, arctic and gulf air masses meet so weather swings like a compass needle in the Bermuda Triangle.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 26 Nov 2023, 02:36:14

I read a scholarly article a couple of years back that explained an unseasonably cold event in the US as being caused by a broken polar vortex dumping it's cold air down across the nation. The trigger was a major storm off Japan that went far far north and pushed the frigid air out before it. All the old models are broken now.

It was this event I believe, or the earlier 2014 cold snap where Niagra falls froze over. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech ... rs-US.html

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Unfortunately this article offers no explanation other than melting icebergs. But nature abhors a vacuum so when the cold air moved out of the arctic, warm air moved in to take it's place obviously. Which came first, the chicken or the egg? In the greater scheme of things it doesn't really matter for us. At the moment our late spring temps are below average, personally I think cold air is moving out of the arctic in response to global warming, a re-balancing act of sorts. Again it doesn't matter which is the driver, cold air pushing out or warm air pushing it out, the end results are the same for us.

The egg heads can debate it all they want, that's not going to change the facts or mitigate them.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby Pops » Sun 26 Nov 2023, 10:09:52

As I understand, the explanation for the vortex straying from the pole is the polar jetstream moving fast and in a relatively straight line contains frigid arctic air to the pole. When the jet slows it gets wobbly and the cold air is less constrained. I found a pic...

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Jury's out on whether this is natural variation or GW, per that NOAA page. But on the positive side the poles are warming faster than the lower latitudes so today's cold blast will just be a tropical breeze in the future.

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/cl ... out-arctic
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 27 Nov 2023, 00:07:58

The BFD Paper of Dr. James Hansen and his new book, Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe.

Dr. James E. Hansen in Conversation with Paul Beckwith
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTWUJ8Lvl-U

Sulfur reduction of maritime fuel OR disappearing polar snow cover is causing the recent temperature spike, betting on the former, but a shout-out for the latter.
Current models are all wrong (on climate sensitivity) if one examines climate change during the Cenozoic era (near the end of his talk).

Wow, what an exciting time to be a climate scientist.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 27 Nov 2023, 00:18:28

Pops wrote:As I understand, the explanation for the vortex straying from the pole is the polar jetstream moving fast and in a relatively straight line contains frigid arctic air to the pole. When the jet slows it gets wobbly and the cold air is less constrained. I found a pic...


Evidently, the southern hemisphere also has a polar vortex and it's waviness has cold air escaping the poles in outward extensions while, evidently, it sucks in warm air from the tropics into the troughs, maybe explaining Brazil's current heat wave.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 27 Nov 2023, 04:17:22

jedrider wrote:The BFD Paper of Dr. James Hansen and his new book, Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe.

Dr. James E. Hansen in Conversation with Paul Beckwith
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTWUJ8Lvl-U


Yeah, thanks for that, I think lol. I watched a vid a while back, fringe science stuff, in other words stuff no one wanted to accept without 5 years of debate. It was about Hypercanes, storms with 500km/h winds and unbelievable wave heights. It was based on computer modeling of warming oceans and on geologic evidence found on coast lines and islands from long ago. Huge boulders that had been swept up onto hills, irrefutable evidence. What was refutable was whether they were transported there by ocean storms or by mega tsunamis. There was also some recent evidence, from the British coast if I remember rightly. Smaller boulders swept up on shore by a fierce storm.


Scientists don’t know for sure how these boulders got to their exceptional location — they couldn’t have rolled uphill to the top of the cliff; there’s no higher cliff from which they could have fallen — but they suspect it has something to do with the Atlantic Ocean far below them.

One possible explanation has frightening implications for the present. Two years ago, climate scientist James Hansen, drawing on the work of the geologist Paul Hearty, a retired research associate professor at the University of North Carolina, suggested they had been put in place by catastrophic superstorms more than 100,000 years ago at a time of higher seas and dangerous weather dynamics. These conditions, Hansen fears, could return again if polar ice sheets melt rapidly, upending ocean circulation and potentially causing a host of other difficult-to-predict scenarios.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ene ... e-bahamas/
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 27 Nov 2023, 15:57:12

Here just south of Lake Erie November has gyrated wildly in terms of weather. We had a no kidding white out blizzard on Halloween night about 15 minutes before the end of Trick or Treat and since then we have flip flopped to frosty mornings mixed with daytime highs in the shirt no jacket range of temperatures. Today we will barely break freezing with a strong wind all day while a week ago it was so warm I opened up the house and turned on the attic fan to cool things back down inside. Normal for us this time of year is rain 2-3 days a week with temps in the light jacket range on sunny days.

Speaking of climate change when I was a kid we had snow about half the time by this week of the year and always had a white Christmas. In the last five years we have had one white Christmas and two rainy ones. Anecdotal evidence is often spurned but a look at yearly weather records backs up my memories so nah nah nuh nah nah!
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One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 27 Nov 2023, 17:53:26

Tanada wrote:Anecdotal evidence is often spurned but a look at yearly weather records backs up my memories


My anecdotal observations of what's happening planet-wide are a lot different than the standard playbook spelled out 20 years ago as well. It was assumed then that a steady rise in temps worldwide would lead to xyz; classical linear analysis and the only sort of thing you can get out of a computer. In reality though it's been totally Un-linear, ad-hoc! The heat that was supposed to be accumulating in the atmosphere wasn't? For a decade or so temps barely moved. Scientists were baffled, couldn't explain it, until some bright spark pointed out that ocean temps had risen slightly. It was easy to miss I suppose given that water has a high specific heat capacity and can absorb or release a lot of heat without changing its temperature much. So heat was primarily going into the oceans for a while, taking a lot of CO2 with it. This CO2 has poisoned and killed 3/4 of Australia's Great barrier Reef as well as thousands of km of coastal mangrove forest.

Also the poles as Pops pointed out warmed faster than expected, logical I suppose but the scientists and their linear models didn't see that one coming either. Modern scientists, because of the framework of bureaucracy they work under, are for the most part like modern doctors I think. Great at identifying a disease that's already half killed you but hopeless at detecting it beforehand. (yes I know there are exceptions)

So what have we got and what can we expect? As one climate scientist rightly put it, Weather Weirding. Just the sort of flip-flops Tanada described above. But there are clear trends we can count on. Mass melting of glaciers all across the planet; collapse of the ice sheets, more energetic cyclones causing more damage, and of course these unprecedented heatwaves. All these are clear trends at this point.

Those that think this isn't caused by CO2 really need to go back and read a highschool Chemistry book on the effects of increasing it's amount in a closed system exposed to sunlight. A 100 year old text will suffice; it's not new science, although the full proof from the atomic structure of matter, how CO2 molecules due to their shape and size absorbed and then re-radiated infrared radiation, took a little longer, the effects measured in labs worldwide was already conclusive proof. All the heat off the surface of the earth is radiated skyward as infrared, it meets CO2 molecules and gets scattered, in all directions, so as nearly half the heat scattered comes right back down. Simple science. Now add Methane...

People were blowing themselves to pieces with nitroglycerine long before anyone actually knew what was going on at the molecular level to cause this. The same with gunpowder. All modern chemistry did was allow us to circumvent the laborious process of trial and error and enable us to improve these explosives on the blackboard rather than on a barge in the middle of a lake.

...And those explosions didn't stop Alfred? No, but the Stockholm authorities nearly did; they banned the Nobels from making explosives within the city limits, so production was moved to a barge in a lake. He tried to mix nitroglycerine with various absorbent solids, so that it could be more easily and safely handled as a solid. One day in 1866 he found that, by mixing nitroglycerine with a clay called kieselguhr, he produced a putty-like solid that was safe and easy to manage, shape and detonate. Nobel called it dynamite.

Why is nitroglycerine explosive? Apart from its instability, when nitroglycerine is detonated, a lot of gas is formed within microseconds in a very exothermic reaction, generating a pressure up to 275 000 atmospheres:- C3H5N3O9 (liq) ---> N2 (gas) + H2O (gas) + CO2 (gas) + O2 (gas)

The energy produced by the first few decomposing molecules creates a pressure gradient that detonates more of the nitroglycerine, causing a shockwave resulting in essentially instantaneous decomposition of the whole explosive charge.
https://www.chm.bris.ac.uk/motm/nitrogl ... itrojs.htm

The Titan submersible was crushed at only 375 atm. The deepest point on the ocean floor has 1000 atm of pressure bearing down. 275,000 atmospheres, in an eyeblink, that's more than enough to compress solid matter, to allow sub-critical masses of Plutonium to fission. Ahhhh, science. It's beautiful isn't it. Even if it is ultimately in the hands of politicians, psychotics, and shysters.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 27 Nov 2023, 18:48:33

theluckycountry wrote:
Tanada wrote:Anecdotal evidence is often spurned but a look at yearly weather records backs up my memories


My anecdotal observations of what's happening planet-wide are a lot different than the standard playbook spelled out 20 years ago as well.


Well, I wouldn't go that far. Scientists are unraveling a hell of a nest of interconnected events. Yes, the playbook spelled out 20 years ago was kind of stupid. Yes, sometimes our eyes tell us the truth like that skit of comedian Richard Fryer "Who are you going to believe? Me or your lying eyes?"
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 03 Jan 2024, 12:15:10

Finally a new temperature anomaly record!

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/01/ua ... -83-deg-c/
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 04 Jan 2024, 04:30:35

We're frogs in a pot, bacteria in a petri dish
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 07 Jan 2024, 07:55:44

theluckycountry wrote:Scientists were baffled, couldn't explain it, until some bright spark pointed out that ocean temps had risen slightly.
It was easy to miss I suppose given that water has a high specific heat capacity and can absorb or release a lot of heat without changing its temperature much.

Indeed.
Energy contained in 1 Mt of TNT, eg. in approximately 80 Hiroshima sized nukes will rise temperature of 1 km3 of water by 1*C - with accuracy better than 0.1% of error.
It is funny coincidence but tell a lot about rather large thermal capacity of water.

...And those explosions didn't stop Alfred? No, but the Stockholm authorities nearly did; they banned the Nobels from making explosives within the city limits, so production was moved to a barge in a lake.

Being a chemist I had always troubles with nuisance safety officials in industry in the UK where I was working.
There was also a habit to appoint these officials from most stupid staff not really good for doing anything else than hinder activities of others.
Following safety procedures was often making entire R & D experiment less safe because loads of time was spent to fill repetitive and yet meaningless documentation and then job still had to be done, often in lousy fashion due to limited time left.
This was one of more significant reasons why I have left industry - not to contribute any more to spreading stupidity and decadence - and now run tourism business.

OTOH it is not a good idea to make large quantities of explosives in the middle of city.

Why is nitroglycerine explosive? Apart from its instability, when nitroglycerine is detonated, a lot of gas is formed within microseconds in a very exothermic reaction, generating a pressure up to 275 000 atmospheres:- C3H5N3O9 (liq) ---> N2 (gas) + H2O (gas) + CO2 (gas) + O2 (gas)

Burning 1 kg of coal is far MORE exothermic (but slower process) than detonating 1 kg of nitroglycerine.
Nitroglycerine is still about on par with RDX and above PETN in terms of output but military prefers these due to higher stability.
but it is still quite stable to mechanical shock as long as purified from dissolved acids used in manufacturing.

Though perhaps the strongest chemical high explosive now known is a cryogenic mixture (slurry) of solid acetylene suspended in liquid oxygen.
Pressures in excess of 1 million atmospheres can result.
Compared with it nitroglycerine is more like a dud.

The energy produced by the first few decomposing molecules creates a pressure gradient that detonates more of the nitroglycerine, causing a shockwave resulting in essentially instantaneous decomposition of the whole explosive charge.

Speed of detonation of nitroglycerine is in range of 8 km/s - about the same as first cosmic speed.

275,000 atmospheres, in an eyeblink, that's more than enough to compress solid matter, to allow sub-critical masses of Plutonium to fission. Ahhhh, science. It's beautiful isn't it. Even if it is ultimately in the hands of politicians, psychotics, and shysters.

It is more complicated with Plutonium which is one of most challenging metals to work with from point of view of metalurgist.
It has several allotropic forms, most relevant are delta and alpha forms, the latter of about 25% higher density than the former.
Delta form is metastable in normal conditions - so it would convert into alpha upon standing and nuke core would fall apart into powder upon storage, very much like old Tin pot stored in the cold (what as per some views have contributed to demise of Antarctic Scott expedition in 1906 where Tin soldered fuel tanks fallen apart - Amundsen's dogs have proven to be a superior technology at that time). Fortunately US military have found that small addition of Gallium can stabilize delta form of Pu in resulting alloy, but nevertheless it will convert nearly instantaneously into alpha once subjected to over 2000 at of pressure - well within range of chemical explosives.

An interesting observation is that a detonating core of A-bomb in its central few cc of volume has higher energy density than the same volume of detonating supernova core - and may be at the time of business proceeding the hottest MACROSCOPIC object in entire Universe with an exception of events going on in immediate vicinity of event horizons and below them.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 16

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 07 Jan 2024, 18:05:42

EnergyUnlimited wrote:It has several allotropic forms, most relevant are delta and alpha forms, the latter of about 25% higher density than the former.
Delta form is metastable in normal conditions - so it would convert into alpha upon standing and nuke core would fall apart into powder upon storage, very much like old Tin pot stored in the cold (what as per some views have contributed to demise of Antarctic Scott expedition in 1906 where Tin soldered fuel tanks fallen apart - Amundsen's dogs have proven to be a superior technology at that time).

An interesting observation is that a detonating core of A-bomb in its central few cc of volume has higher energy density than the same volume of detonating supernova core - and may be at the time of business proceeding the hottest MACROSCOPIC object in entire Universe with an exception of events going on in immediate vicinity of event horizons and below them.


Pretty deep post EU, I learnt somewhat there. Those states of plutonium no doubt explain why the warheads have to be serviced from time to time. I assume they have a stockpile of ones based on Uranium that don't need that sort of maintenance. Who knows what they have hey, they had little ones back in the 50's, ones you could carry around by hand. What do they have now lurking in warehouses. Or in the case of Russia, planted in Western capitals? I love frederick forsyth's early novels and the "fourth protocol" is a favorite. I don't for one minute though believe that is how they'd sneak them into a country, piecemeal. Oh no, just bring them in fully assembled on commercial ships or a dozen other ways. Spys and Fifth columnists are a standard way of dealing with your enemies.

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A mortar weapon system, with nuclear warheads, carried and launched by infantry units.
Range: 2~4 km
The W54 (also known as the Mark 54 or B54) was a tactical nuclear warhead developed by the United States in the late 1950s. The weapon is notable for being the smallest nuclear weapon in both weight and yield to have entered US service. It was a compact implosion device containing plutonium-239 as its fissile material and in its various versions and mods it had a yield of 10 to 1,000 tons of TNT.


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Now that's what I call big Balls.
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