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PeakOil is You

Zero Growth and the Singularity

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

It's the year 2060...

and if ya don't gimme dat dog chop I'll club ya!
11
58%
and human labor is obsolete, Jetson.
3
16%
00101110001110101.
5
26%
 
Total votes : 19

Re: Zero Growth and the Singularity

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 20 Dec 2023, 15:08:09

Pops wrote: Come to think of it, Bidens money for new factories could easily work against the unions he embraces as the new factories will surely use just as much automation as possible.


Exactly right.

But let's give Biden some credit for saying nice things.

Pops wrote:
Where AI and lesser robotics will finish the job started by globalized trade will be on the factory floor, jobsite, interstate. For some short period, 5-20 years maybe, humans will be augmented by AI (as I am now) and the human's productivity will rise. But then the AI will learn and become more proficient, faster and cheaper than the human.

and way before 2060...
.


I think AI is going to be taking over low end human jobs much more quickly than that.

The CEO of NVDIA has long been saying the main effect of AI will be in factories, where AI can do most of the machining and assembly work now done by humans.

But how about in restaurants and fast food restaurants----AI robots can assemble meals and cook food too. I think many jobs in the restaurant/fast food business will also go AI pretty fast. And robot bartenders? Why not?

And how about service jobs like receptionists or help desk people....AI can answer phones and answer questions and make appointments.

And even therapy.......online or call-in therapy and counseling could all be done by AI.

Robotic truck drivers and taxi drivers? Why not?

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I think a shift to AI is going to happen very fast, especially given the mediocre level of education and the poor work ethic you see today. If you were a an employer would you rather have a super efficient AI robot working for you, or a member of generation thug?

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Re: Zero Growth and the Singularity

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 21 Dec 2023, 10:58:29

Having excess workers is an interesting position and we have been in it for quite a while. Its recognition dates back at least to Bertrand Russel's 1938(ish) essay In Praise of Idleness.

Very briefly (for me) a under appreciated part of the problem is that people NEED valid work to feel part of the tribe, without valuable participation one feels unneeded and expendable, which obviously leads to depression and worse.

I see no general overt recognition of this within any of our leadership. Apart from Putin, who has killed enough countrymen to assure the rest have meaningfull work. There is some logic to that methodology.
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Re: Zero Growth and the Singularity

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 21 Dec 2023, 19:22:12

I remember Wolff sharing a related point, and in reference to one of several issues involving capitalist systems: workers prefer low unemployment rates because that means there are many jobs available but employers high unemployment rates because that means workers have lower levels of bargaining power.

It's similar to the idea that automation is bad news for workers because more of them would be displaced. For the same reason, it's also bad news for employers because their customers are the same workers.
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Re: Zero Growth and the Singularity

Unread postby Pops » Fri 22 Dec 2023, 18:04:01

Back in 2000-somethin Ray Kurzweil predicted the Singularity for 2045— the point where AI will exceed all human intelligence. That's where I got the 2060 date, just a little padding.

But we're about half way to his forecast date this year and sure feels like the "knee"...
Kurzweil explains that evolutionary progress is exponential because of positive feedback; the results of one stage are used to create the next stage. Exponential growth is deceptive, nearly flat at first until it hits what Kurzweil calls "the knee in the curve" then rises almost vertically.


When I first started this thread I was thinking about zero population/economic growth, drastically reduced energy availability and a little about AI. Lately I'm thinking a lot about AGI consuming huge amounts of electricity, whole countries worth, And right at the time we're trying to transition from concentrated fossil power to diffuse, renewable electricity.

I've read conjecture that upwards of 80% of jobs might disappear. As well, the overall the population will be continuing to age as births fall. So a larger, older, AND unemployed population... with even more severe energy constraints that if we were left with just old fashioned natural intelligence. Yikes.

This guy David Shapiro, does youtubes about the subject. His take is kind of utopian UBI, tiny houses, micro apartments, on-the-side hairdressers, masseuses, and of course youtube "creators". (I like that part, LOL)

Personally, I am of a way, way more dystopian bent. The controllers of AI will of course be the same corporate ownership that has forever taken every advantage of labor - from child labor to slavery to sexual exploitation. I'm thinking they aren't going to willingly hand over 99% of their profits in taxes for "welfare"—just so the unemployed and aged will be able to survive —when they have only begrudgingly paid any wage in the past.

So the conundrum, either an AI/Socialist state or an AI/Capitalist dystopia with 90% of the population living hand to mouth.

What other system might work?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near
https://medium.com/@sgunnisonmiller/ray ... 40ee2ff42a
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Zero Growth and the Singularity

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 22 Dec 2023, 18:52:12

Pops wrote:
So the conundrum, either an AI/Socialist state or an AI/Capitalist dystopia with 90% of the population living hand to mouth.

What other system might work?


How about an AI/Libertarian system where groups of like-minded folks join together to be free and do what ever the hell they want to do with the help of their friendly AI companions.

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