[careinke]

Hey All,

BTC has started it's bull run today, while major banks are dropping and Gold has not really moved in the last five years. BTC jumped 12% so far today.

I bought more right after Cramer declared on Friday he had just dumped his crypto and suggested everyone else do the same. A clear buy signal.

Lots of S#it happening in the world, I'm having trouble keeping up. Still I love it and feel lucky to watch the the NWO fall apart. I fully expect the dying Empires to get violent soon.

Fix the Money, Fix the World.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

Hey All,

BTC has started it's bull run today... BTC jumped 12% so far today.

One day's action signals a bull run? Ok, that sounds like a crypto analysis. Lets say the run lasts 5 days, then we enter a new bear market for 3 weeks, sound about right?

BTC Oct 2021 $62,000
BTC Oct 2023 $35,000 (Down by 44% in 2 years)

while major banks are dropping and Gold has not really moved in the last five years.

So an increase of 60% is not really moving? You see. This is the problem I have with crypto. No one involved with it has a clue what they are talking about.

[careinke]

Hey All,

BTC has started it's bull run today... BTC jumped 12% so far today.

One day's action signals a bull run? Ok, that sounds like a crypto analysis. Lets say the run lasts 5 days, then we enter a new bear market for 3 weeks, sound about right?

BTC Oct 2021 $62,000
BTC Oct 2023 $35,000 (Down by 44% in 2 years)

while major banks are dropping and Gold has not really moved in the last five years.

So an increase of 60% is not really moving? You see. This is the problem I have with crypto. No one involved with it has a clue what they are talking about.

Lucky,

Sorry I was very tired when I wrote that and posted based on my unreliable memory. I'll try and do better.

What I was thinking about with the gold prices for the last three years, taking into account our inflation rate.

I asked Bard to figure this one out. Here is its response.

To calculate the current gold price using the 2021 dollar, we need to divide the current gold price by the inflation rate since 2021.

The current gold price is $1,975.70 per ounce. The inflation rate since 2021 is 14%.

Therefore, the current gold price using the 2021 dollar would be:

$1,975.70 / (1 + 14%) = $1,722.29
In other words, gold would be about $253 cheaper per ounce today if we were using the 2021 dollar.

(Note: This is just a rough estimate, as inflation rates can vary depending on the specific goods and services being measured.)

As far as the 44% BTC drop from all time to Yesterday is a big improvement over the drop from BTCs ATH to this cycles actual low.

Bard says:

According to my knowledge, Bitcoin dropped from its all-time high of $68,789.63 on November 10, 2021 to a low of $15,682.69 on November 9, 2022. This represents a drop of 77.3%.

Here is a shorter version in three sentences:

Bitcoin dropped from its all-time high of $68,789.63 to a low of $15,682.69 in 2022, a drop of 77.3%.

This is a lower drop than any previous Havening cycle, but that is expected as BTC users expand.

YTD BTC is up over 100%.
Bard Says:

According to MarketWatch, Bitcoin has increased by 106.27% year-to-date as of October 24, 2023.

This means that Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 by a significant margin in 2023 so far.

Part of the recent rise, is expectations of a spot BTC ETF coming within the next 3-4 months (based on comments from the CEO of Blackrock). This will allow Boomer investors and most retirement plans the legal ability to add BTC to their portfolios.

Since the first Gold ETF, (congrats to Australia), in 2003, followed by the US in 2004, Gold prices increased significantly.

Of course I have no plans to buy any BTC ETFs. I prefer buying actual BTC.

I'm actually into BTC not for profit but to Separate Money and State as was envisioned by our founding fathers. I'm currently reading "The Sovereign Individuals" first released in 1997.

More details from Bard:

The Sovereign Individual was first published in 1997, under the title "The Sovereign Individual: How to Survive and Thrive During the Collapse of the Welfare State". It was republished in 1999 under its current title, "The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age".

It's uncanny how accurate a lot of their predictions have played out, with more to come.

Once again I apologize for my previous post. I'll try harder.

PEACE

[theluckycountry]

Lucky,

Sorry I was very tired when I wrote that and posted based on my unreliable memory. I'll try and do better.

lol, yes I figured that, but I couldn't help myself taking a cheap shot. My apologies.

What I was thinking about with the gold prices for the last three years, taking into account our inflation rate. I asked Bard to figure this one out. Here is its response.

To calculate the current gold price using the 2021 dollar, we need to divide the current gold price by the inflation rate since 2021. The current gold price is $1,975.70 per ounce. The inflation rate since 2021 is 14%.
Therefore, the current gold price using the 2021 dollar would be:
$1,975.70 / (1 + 14%) = $1,722.29
In other words, gold would be about $253 cheaper per ounce today if we were using the 2021 dollar.

Yes you are quite correct, and I have noticed that too. But what you will see throughout history is that gold price inflation lags general price inflation which lags monetary inflation.

Consider the long term chart of gold in view of the monetary inflation that began in 1971 with the shift off the international gold standard. That triggered higher inflation in general prices. Gold didn't really begin moving though until late in the decade.

In the winters of 1972 and 1973, Burns began to worry about inflation. In 1973, inflation more than doubled to 8.8%. Later in the decade, it would go to 12%. By 1980, inflation was at 14%.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/e ... lation.asp





Consider also the gold price in 2006, which was the peak of the US housing bubble that began after 911 when under the Bush administration the Fed lowered interest rates precipitously to save us from the IT bubble.



As you can see, it took gold a few more years to catch up with the general inflation. But it certainly did, then overshot. Then it settled back to a level over twice that of before. In other words it compensated for all the inflation of the 00's. Knowing this one could buy a pile of paper gold as well and use it to sell at the next overshoot, thereby making a nice profit. I don't seek that from gold myself though. I just seek the preservation of purchasing power and the protection of savings.

There are many factors in the world today that should have pushed the price much much higher, or lower! The mass accumulation by the BRICS nations for example, or the end of the gold standard. But the Gold price doesn't seem to be easily influenced. It just goes along on it's merry way, tracking inflation as it always has.

[mousepad]

https://ccaf.io/cbnsi/cbeci

15GW for the whole bitcoin operation

https://www.statista.com/statistics/881 ... ison-visa/

700kWh for one bitcoin transaction.
0.0015kWh for one credit card transaction.

The stupidity of man truly has no upper bound.

Fix stupidity, fix the world.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

700kWh for one bitcoin transaction.
0.0015kWh for one credit card transaction.

The stupidity of man truly has no upper bound.

Fix stupidity, fix the world.

Peace

Amen brother. It makes about as much sense as building an EV with a 10 year lifespan, covering every high hill with wind generators having a 15 year lifespan.

[careinke]

https://ccaf.io/cbnsi/cbeci

15GW for the whole bitcoin operation

https://www.statista.com/statistics/881 ... ison-visa/

700kWh for one bitcoin transaction.
0.0015kWh for one credit card transaction.

The stupidity of man truly has no upper bound.

Fix stupidity, fix the world.

Peace

Yawn, we've been over this before. Here are some more numbers:

Bitcoin: 133.68 TWh/year

Lightbulbs: 1,617.6 TWh/year

Clothes dryers: 335.28 TWh/year, just in the U.S. alone.

I tried to find Fiat central bank numbers but they seem to be closely guarded.

I suggest you read:
A Progressive's Case for Bitcoin: A Path Toward a More Just, Equitable, and Peaceful World . Bitcoin Magazine Books. Kindle Edition.

Then we can speak the same language.

Fix stupidity, fix the world

We both agree on that one, we just have different solutions.

Peace

[mousepad]

700kWh for one bitcoin transaction.
0.0015kWh for one credit card transaction.

Bitcoin: 133.68 TWh/year
Lightbulbs: 1,617.6 TWh/year
Clothes dryers: 335.28 TWh/year, just in the U.S. alone.

Yes, we're comparing financial transaction with cloth dryers and light bulps. Good job!!!!!

No wonder you've fallen for crypto head over heel.

[careinke]

700kWh for one bitcoin transaction.
0.0015kWh for one credit card transaction.

Bitcoin: 133.68 TWh/year
Lightbulbs: 1,617.6 TWh/year
Clothes dryers: 335.28 TWh/year, just in the U.S. alone.

Yes, we're comparing financial transaction with cloth dryers and light bulps. Good job!!!!!

No wonder you've fallen for crypto head over heel.

You were the one to bring up the false narrative. Besides how could you stop it? You can't, this Pandora's treasure has already escaped the box.

Peace

[Plantagenet]

.... this Pandora's treasure has already escaped the box.
Peace

Bitcoin is currently up again. Congrats!

But crypto hasn't entirely escaped the box.

The facts show the crypto industry has been riddled with conmen and cheats.

In fact, some of cryptocurrencies biggest proponents turned out to be crooks and fraudsters and are now being put in little boxes with bars on them....hopefully for the rest of their lives.





Cheers!

[careinke]

Hopefully SBF spends a Looooonnnnngggg time in jail. Your confusing fraud with bitcoin. Two different things, SBF is a criminal, BTC is the best money.

On the other hand banks and governments are thieves. Stealing is a SIN.

Since the beginning of the year I'm up well over 100%, and I hold all my own coins. And this is only the first year of the BTC bull market, two more years to go in this cycle. It's going to be a great ride!

For those interested, I have found this guy to be the best information source since I've been doing this (2014). He also does deep dives on most disruptive technologies.

https://www.youtube.com/@InvestAnswers

I get nothing from promoting him. I am a patreon member of his, but I don't think there are any openings.

Jump on in the climate is great.

Peace

[careinke]

Hi all,

Turns out the SEC is looking for crypto experts. The only hitch is you are required to sell ALL of your crypto!

That's like a car dealership hiring expert mechanics, but not allowing them to own cars.

No wonder the SEC can't win any lawsuits.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

On The (Eventual) Irrelevance Of SBF

Sam Bankman-Fried’s recent conviction inspired many front page stories, most of which read like obituaries. Not just of his time as a free man but also the broader dreams of crypto. It all makes me laugh because none of this will matter in the long run. The afroed and acronymed psychopath will be forgotten long before he gets out of jail. Anyone who disagrees should take a moment to reflect on the importance of Bernie Ebbers to the modern internet.

If you’ve never heard of him then you are in good company, none of my students knew anything about him or his company either.

Bernard John Ebbers was the founder and CEO of Worldcom, once one of the largest telecommunication companies in the world and a contributor to the physical infrastructure of the internet, until it collapsed due to an accounting scandal — still the largest in US history. Far more value was destroyed by Worldcom than FTX, and Ebbers was sentenced to 25 years in prison.

So what does this story have to do with the modern internet? Virtually nothing. A network of computers that transmit packets of data was always going to be a thing. The soap opera of who did what when during its awkward adolescent years is now just a footnote in history. The same is true for most other tech revolutions, despite their own bubbles, frauds, and charismatic psychopaths. The only question that mattered in the long run was whether the proposed solution did something useful.

The money management industry is ten times bigger today than it was when a different Bernie went down in flames. The railroad bubbles of the 1800s didn’t invalidate the idea of trains and Ken Lay didn’t make us turn off the lights. Mortgage-backed securities are still an important thing, even if Lehman isn’t. You probably live off of electronic payments, but have never heard of Wirecard...

Full Article
https://omid-malekan.medium.com/on-the- ... a14b2ddafe

[careinke]

I recently sold my ETH and spent the cash in SOL. I feel SOL has the best chance of killing ETH. SOL is fast and has demonstrated 1.2 trillion transaction per second. This was with just 4 nodes. Soon there will no longer even be a limit on transactions. I also had numerous other reasons for making the switch, especially the cost to make transactions, nothing is cheaper.

So far today, I am way up, and the day is only half done. And my switch from ETH to SOL seems to be working.

WEEEEeeeeeeeee

Peace

[careinke]

Yes, the ragged edge of failure
(btc $25900)

Update Btc $37698. Hows gold doing? Oh yea still under $2,000.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

And two days ago it was $35.9k, Two days before that, $37.5k. If it surpasses $40k it might have my attention, but it's just as likely to go sub $30k again. The problem with crypto is there are no fundamentals other than Fear and Greed. There is nothing you can point to that validates a Bullrun. For all we know this is just another pump and dump cycle.

[careinke]

The problem with crypto is there are no fundamentals other than Fear and Greed. There is nothing you can point to that validates a Bullrun. For all we know this is just another pump and dump cycle.

Really, how about reality? *Comments below are specific for Bitcoin.

1. So you don't think a 127% rise over the past year validates a bull run?

2. How about the the fact since its inception, BTC has had three up years followed by one down year and we are not even done with the first up year during this cycle?

3. Why are Black Rock, Fidelity, Grey scale, JP Morgan, etc. all buying BTC now, to fund their upcoming Spot ETFs?

That's enough for now. I'll come back in a month or two when it breaches 40K and we can discuss again, when your gold is below 1800 because people are moving on to safer assets.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

HaHaHa. Oh dear, now where's that bitcoin chart, Ahhh, here it is. Lets see now, it's had two bull runs, and the second was a double top. Nasty things those double tops, they invariably foretell a multi-decade decline in the assert class.

But then if want to isolate bitcoin and say it's a new paradigm, even though it's totally usurped by Wall street now, we see that the first peak, back in 2017 was followed by a second lower peak, then a fall off until late 2020. Whick means that if it's following a pattern of former rises, it will fall off around 40 and slump all the way back to 23 odd.

But why even try to put analysis to it, it's barely been around for a decade. A single decade! And it's not a stock or a commodity, it's a fanciful "people's money" A digital I don't want to pay tax and have the government and banks ripping me off money. Don't lose that stick, or the keys to it inke. And whatever you do, don't bury any of it in the ground like you might with Gold.

[theluckycountry]

With Bitcoin approaching $40k it's probably a good time for legacy buyers to consider their position and whether they can get out without loss. The market is still well shy of the 68k top back two years ago. Yes it's been that long, and a lot of people who bought at today's prices and even lower back in those days have gone to the wall due to leverage. Many bought on CC, expecting to repay the loans when the BC went to the moon. But it went to hell instead and so did their finances.

The Debt Panel: 'I lost my life savings after investing in cryptocurrencies'
The Dubai resident invested his salary and borrowed on credit cards to buy Luna and Terra stablecoins before the market crash https://www.thenationalnews.com/busines ... vestments/

And then there is the multiplicity of scams.

Missing $96,000 is your problem, Coinbase allegedly told account holder who had life savings cleaned out https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/03/07/c ... d-lawsuit/

Warning over cryptocurrency scams after Jersey family loses life savings https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2023-0 ... to-scammer

Don't be lured by the siren's songs of endless profits, Lamborghinis, and a life of ease if it's a substantial part of your life savings you're playing with. Just remember the last collapse and ask yourself if you can weather that all over again. Some can, some bought in when the token was very cheap by today's standards. If you bought in under $5000 you have a lot of wiggle room to sell, but do your due diligence, when Bitcoin collapses it does it very fast.

11/11/2021 $68,000
11/19/2021 $56,000
12/04/2021 $46,000

[careinke]

And two days ago it was $35.9k, Two days before that, $37.5k. If it surpasses $40k it might have my attention, but it's just as likely to go sub $30k again. The problem with crypto is there are no fundamentals other than Fear and Greed. There is nothing you can point to that validates a Bullrun. For all we know this is just another pump and dump cycle.

Well, does it have your attention yet? Sorry you were not paying attention at $16,000. But it is still very, very, early.

Peace