[theluckycountry]

Peter Zeihan presented this idea in one of his recent Geopolitical youtube videos. As I understand it Peter Zeihan presented this idea in one of his recent Geopolitical youtube videos. As I understand it Zeihan isn't sayingisn't saying... AND Zeihan... I don't know if Zeihan's right or not

Zeihan Zeihan Zeihan. The guy is a russiaphobe, he'll say anything to bash Putin and the state. An analyst? More like a dreamer. He thinks when the world collapses into anarchy the US will rein supreme because of its demographics, because the US has a growing population. What he fails to realize is that most of those babies are coming from the latino and negro stock, whose idea of progress is banding together in ever larger groups to loot department stores. He also dismisses US debt as unimportant and the fact all the economic energy and minerals have already been looted out of the soil.

Find a new source Plant.

[Plantagenet]

Zeihan Zeihan Zeihan.

Yes. Peter Zeihan.

He has a lot of very interesting ideas, doesn't he?


Most days Peter Zeihan posts interesting short commentaries on YouTube. He's also authored several books.

Cheers!

[Newfie]

I don’t agree with everything he says but on average he is far better than most.

As far as Russia phobe his perspective remains that; from a Russian perspective this war was necessary to block certain strategic weak points and this is the last generation when Russia would have the ability to do so. He has surly presented Russia’s motives in a more favorable light than Putin.

Further he has been saying all along “this is Russias war to loose” all along. I have not heard him repeat that in the last 6 weeks or so, but that may he because he sees the balance changing.

He is not a supporter of Putin or his measures.

[theluckycountry]

He's a rabid supporter of a dying empire is what he is. I read his latest analysis about America Ruling the world in the decades to come due solely on demographics. Demographics? If billions of people was all it took then Africa india and china would have been leading the world decades ago.

It takes either abundant cheap labor or abundant cheap energy, which are essentially the same thing. So for him to be correct in his analysis either the shale oil fields will have to miraculously go from 2:1 to 50:1 or the majority of the US public will need to begin working for slave labor rates like what built China and India's economies. Can you imagine either of those occurring? He's grasping at straws. I think you would agree that what he thinks of the state of the rest of the world is irrelevant when compared to the home nation collapsing into poverty.

I know it's hard to imagine that happening but it's happened hundreds of times throughout history and the triggers are basically always the same. Enormous debts and vast military overstretch.

[jato0072]

I read his latest analysis about America Ruling the world

Fantasy sells books and speaking gigs. Peter knows what positive narratives to deliver in order to bring home the paycheck.

[Newfie]

I fear this response is too long for a close reading, my apologies. I di try to keep it concise but it is a large topic.

If you are to follow only the brief daily videos then you may get that impression, that is inaccurate. He is predicting increased regionalization worldwide due to the USA stepping back from Breton Woods guarantees and shipping becoming more uncertain and also increasing competition for oil/energy. Demographics is only a part of the analysis.

Yes Peter is selling to an audience which is mostly corporate America but which includes to global elite, repeat gigs speaking to Indian audiences. He compartmentalizes his desires from his reports, so what he reports is what he thinks will happen not what he wants.

His predictions are all rather short term. He is looking at 20 year timelines. He makes the odd reference out further but these have little detail. Listen to him with that constraint.

His analysis is not rosey for anyone, it is just that he sees the USA sinking slower than others. His analysis is seldom about the USA alone. He looks at the NAFTA block (US, Medico, Canada) as a functioning unit. And he believes that these 3 working together are large enough and diverse enough to be more or less self supporting.

He is fairly positive on India itself being sufficiently large to create its own economy.

Africa is a hot mess because while it has much population growth it lacks the means to stabilize let alone develop.

He is pretty high in parts of SE Asia and some if SA. Japan has adapted by off shoring production to low labor cost countries in SE Asia but their labor costs are rising which will pinch Japan.

He sees great troubles ahead for Europe and China.

Regarding China Peter’s message has 2 major thrusts. The first is that their economy is really messed up due to Xi’s ham handed management. If you think debt is a problem for the USA know China’s debt problem is far worse. Second is that China has politicized theirs data gathering process, their statistics are horrid. That means they themselves do not have adequate means to monitor and manage the situation, inadequate feedback, driving in the dark without headlights. Witness the recent adjustment in population numbers, which are closer to but still far off independent analysis. They have missed their own population count by about 130 million people.

[theluckycountry]

He is predicting increased regionalization worldwide due to the USA stepping back from Breton Woods

JOHANNESBURG (AP) — Iran and Saudi Arabia were among six countries invited Thursday to join the BRICS bloc of developing economies in a move that showed signs of strengthening a China-Russia coalition as tensions with the West spiral higher.

The United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Egypt and Ethiopia were also set to enter BRICS from Jan. 1, 2024, joining current members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa to make an 11-nation bloc.

https://apnews.com/article/brics-russia ... 5c068b7a50

Well I guess it's regonalization for those former enemies in the middle east but the BLOCK is worldwide, and has all the cheap oil basically. I wouldn't be surprised if Iraq joins one day too, if they can escape the enforced system they now live under. Big changes afoot!

Personally I see nothing wrong with reduced populations, it makes good sense in a world where food is 80% or more dependent on fossil fuels. The only issue is what to do with the unproductive old people, like most of us

Population decline is a critical issue in the West because our social security systems are funded by tax on the young workers. But China, Russia and many other big populations don't have these liabilities so they can take a reduction and simply 'reset' their business models, so to speak. SS, it's called the third rail isn't it? Governments dance around the topic but they never go so far as to explain how they are going to fund half their populations in the future, aside from somehow cashing in the filing cabinets full of treasury bonds they have. Private pensions sound great on paper too but the GFC showed us that it's not money under the mattress. It can vanish overnight in a financial collapse.


George Bush Says There is No Social security problem. He is seen here with Susan Chapman of the Bureau of Public Debt. "I went there because I’m trying to make a point about the Social Security trust." All the money is there

[Plantagenet]

George Bush Says There is No Social security problem.

So does Joe Biden.

"I will not cut a single Social Security or Medicare benefit. In fact, I'm going to extend the Medicare trust fund for at least two decades. And we'll not raise taxes on anyone making over $400,000. And I'll pay for it all ....by making the wealthy and big corporations pay just a little bit more."



Problem solved!

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

Well at the rate they are printing money, Trillions by the year, it's quite possible I suppose.

[Plantagenet]

Well at the rate they are printing money, Trillions by the year, it's quite possible I suppose.

Exactly right.

As the Bible says: money answereth all things. (Ecclesiastes 10:19)



Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

Did you read the next verse plant?
Ecc 10:20 Curse not the king, no not in thy thought; and curse not the rich in thy bedchamber: for a bird of the air shall carry the voice, and that which hath wings shall tell the matter.

The bible is a wise book. Glad I use a vpn

[Newfie]

I thought this was interesting, Russia having internal fuel shortage. Especially curbing exports.

Summary

Oil plants repairs, weaker rouble spark fuel crunch
Fuel wholesale prices jump, retail prices are capped
Government works to solve crisis by trying to curb exports

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... reddit.com

[AgentR11]

Will be interesting to see how OPEC upcoming production cuts will play into Russia's internal fuel issue; market distortions such as retail price caps, always lead to disruption.

[Newfie]

Yes, there are so many ways to make ipulate the markets it is hard to know what the true situation is.

And the green revolution is beginning to make a dent, how big I have no idea.

[theluckycountry]

And the green revolution is beginning to make a dent, how big I have no idea.

Making for a big increase in oil consumption too. Massive amounts of oil are being redirected to build, ship, and erect all that tech. The greater we expand it the more oil will be consumed, it's as simple as that. Perhaps one day they may divert some of that windmill energy to balance the books but at the moment electricity demand for all else is increasing faster than rebuildable technology is going on stream.

Then of course you have to allow for it's replacement in 15 or 20 years.