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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 19 May 2023, 20:07:52

kublikhan wrote:To accommodate all EV cars the US would need more like a 20-50% increase in grid generation, not a quadrupling of grid capacity.

The US would need to produce 20-50% more electricity annually if all cars were electric vehicles.
How much electricity would it take to power all cars if they were electric?

The people actually tasked with answering the question if the grid can handle the EV transition answered: Why yes, it can most certainly handle it.

Electric vehicles (EVs) can meet U.S. personal transportation needs using domestic energy resources while at the same time offering carbon emissions benefits. The objective of the report is to gauge the sufficiency of both energy generation and generation capacity in the U.S. electric power system to accommodate the growing fleet of light duty EVs.

The overall conclusion the analysis in this paper demonstrates is that, based on historical growth rates, sufficient energy generation and generation capacity is expected to be available to support a growing EV fleet as it evolves over time, even with high EV market growth. Although these issues vary geographically and are use-case specific, they do not undermine the overarching conclusion that EVs at Scale will not pose significantly greater challenges than past evolutions of the U.S. electric power system. This next evolution can be managed with proper planning for EV penetration and the resulting charging demand to support a growing light-duty EV fleet. The U.S. Department of Energy is funding several studies at the national laboratories to address the challenges noted above.
Department of Energy: Grid Integration Tech Team and Integrated Systems Analysis Tech Team Summary Report on EVs at Scale and the U.S. Electric Power System


And since it's a global economy, with outsourcing and expanding consumer markets, the same will have to take place elsewhere. Otherwise, businesses will face diminishing returns, and they don't want that to happen.

With that, one has to move from the U.S., which with only 5 pct of the world's population is eating up significant amounts of energy and material resources, and see if the same can take place as EV sales increase, which should be the case as EV investors and employees want more returns, raises, promotions, and bonuses.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 25 May 2023, 04:32:51

Grid expansion assumptions are based on a 100% switch to EV with current levels of car and truck transport operating, which is impossible anyway given the cost of such a transition. Might as well ask for bases on the Moon and Mars with thousands of people living there complete with cattle and pastures. Quite technically doable, but at unfathomable cost.

EVs: XPeng stock trends lower, Tesla shares down (Video)
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/evs-xpe ... 20117.html

Tesla Xpeng, across the board. Xpeng quarterly sales off by 64% and losing money for every car sold. Doesn't sound like the "Great Transition" is going the way Henry Ford experienced it.

The Neo chart 5-yr. All the EV stocks peaked back a year ago or more and are going down. Like I said, 'peak-EV' will be when all the middle-class that want to try one and still have with access to debt have bought one.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NIO?p=N ... c=fin-srch
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 25 May 2023, 11:02:48

What are you babbling about now? The entire vehicle fleet turns over every decade or two. So even if we built 0 EVs, we would still have to pay the cost for an entire fleet turnover. But you don't have to pay the cost all at once. The turnover rate is slow. One the downside, that means slower decarbonization of the vehicle fleet and a miss of the 1.5°C target. On the plus side, that means lower annual cost since the cost is spread out over a decade or two. Same deal for the grid. Any grid expansion would not have to happen all at once but would slowly ramp up with the growing demands of electrified transportation.

"The slow speed of fleet turnover presents a substantial barrier to deep decarbonization." New research models targets for boosting electric vehicle and other zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales and phasing out sales of conventional gasoline- and diesel-powered cars, such as the U.K. target of 2030.
* It sets this against the average lifetime of internal combustion cars, which in the U.S. is 16 years. Smush them together and there's a big "turnover lag."
* "Achieving a ZEV share consistent with 1.5°C pathways would require a combination of a relatively early ban by around 2030 and an average non-ZEV lifetime shorter than 10 years."
* More aggressive policies and incentives that encourage faster turnover are needed for pathways to limit warming to 1.5°C and 2°C.

What they're saying: "People generally tend to underestimate how difficult it is to change a stock variable, like all cars on the road. There is too much focus on the flow, or vehicle sales."

Cleaner cars don't decarbonize light-duty road transport alone. The research also notes the need for policies that help reduce travel demand growth and more.

Go deeper: Dimanchev breaks down the work in this Twitter thread.
One barrier to electric cars: Slow fleet turnover
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 25 May 2023, 11:21:51

And what kind of nonsense are you posting about EV sales "peaking"? EV sales are growing strong:

Global electric car sales for March 2023 were up 28% YoY to 16% share. China sales up 23% YoY to 34% share. Europe up 29% YoY to 23% share. IEA says "nearly one in five cars sold globally this year will be electric".

EV company news - BYD overtakes Volkswagen as China’s best-selling car brand. Tesla overtakes Audi in global car sales. Volkswagen plans 10 more EV models by 2026. GM overtakes Ford as second-best seller of EVs in the U.S. Ford invests $2B to transform Ontario ICE factory into EV manufacturing hub.

Times are certainly changing very fast - Almost 1 in 5 cars sold globally in 2023 to be electric (source: Reuters, IEA), and in China, BYD Co. is now the largest brand for sales in Q1 2023 (outselling all other brands including ICE cars). April saw March global plugin electric car sales improve strongly again, surpassing 1 million sales for the month with the 2nd best month ever! Tesla led the way with a stunning month of sales in March, with BYD not far behind.

April saw the Auto Shanghai 2023 show where more than 150 new models were unveiled, 70% were electric. You can watch a short highlights video here.

Global electric car sales reached 10.522m in 2022 and 13% market share:
Image

Global plugin electric car sales forecast to grow exponentially this decade:
Image

BloombergNEF forecasts (as of mid 2022), "plug-in electric vehicles sales rise from 6.6 million in 2021 to 20.6 million in 2025" and "by 2025, plug-in electric vehicles represent 23% of new passenger vehicles sales globally, up from just under 10% in 2021".
EV Company News For The Month Of April 2023
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 25 May 2023, 16:12:58

Here is a link to a local Arizona ABC station that did a news report on EV fires....both on the street and at the local LUCID EV manufacturing plant.

EV fires and how to put them out.....for good

This news report had all kinds of interesting info in it....I recommend you check it out on Youtube.

Some of the highlights from the EV fire report on ABC:

1. They say every EV must be treated different when it comes to fire. Sometimes you put them out by filling the passenger compartment with water, some you can put out by shooting water in from the bottom, and some you can put out with a fire blanket.

2. BUT...and this is a big BUTT!!!!

They say none of those methods really work because the EV battery can spontaneously re-ignite hours or even days after it is supposedly put out.

3. The report says the LUCID EV manufacuturing plant had two EV battery fires right on the assembly line, and they put them out AND THEN THEY DUMP THE CARS IN A DUMPSTER FULL OF WATER. Apparently Lucid would leave the burned up EVs in the dumpsters full of water for days to make sure they didn't reignite.

4. The AZ fire department people interviewed say they they don't have special water tight dumpsters, so what they do is take the EVs and put them in regular dumpsters and then fill the dumpsters with dirt to make sure they don't reignite. They literally bury the EVs in dirt!!!! In a dumpster!!!!! And they say you've got to leave it buried in dirt in the dumpster for a month or more to be sure its really out.

So there you have it. We're back to the dumpster fire method of putting out EV fires as the only effective way to make sure that EV fire is really out and it stays out.

Image
According to this recent ABC report, the only really effective way to put out an EV fire is to put the car in a dumpster, and then fill the dumpster with either water or dirt, and then leave it there for a really long time.

Cheers!
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 25 May 2023, 19:37:32

Increasing energy demand and resources using vehicle with low returns and quantity from a biosphere that bats last given limits to growth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZsXyDkyrCk
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 25 May 2023, 20:00:13

Plantagenet wrote:So there you have it. We're back to the dumpster fire method of putting out EV fires as the only effective way to make sure that EV fire is really out and it stays out.


Good thing they are like 3X more likely in your Prius than they are in my Leaf.

Are you so worried that you'll get a real EV soon?
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 25 May 2023, 23:08:42

ralfy wrote:Increasing energy demand and resources using vehicle with low returns and quantity from a biosphere that bats last given limits to growth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZsXyDkyrCk
Posting the same debunked garbage for the third time does not make it anymore true than the first time.

Wind and solar power are much cleaner than fossil fuels:
When it comes to comparing renewable energy sources with fossil fuels, it is true that building solar panels and turbines requires energy, and the issues raised around biomass are hardly new to environmentalists. But the carbon-free energy wind and solar produce more than offsets the initial pollution involved with their production. On top of that, many of the movie’s points on renewable energy and other climate solutions are badly outdated, and no longer close to true, as energy experts Leah Stokes, Ketan Joshi and many others have explained. For example, a debunking from John Rogers at the Union of Concerned Scientists points out the film misleadingly discredits renewables, while also unduly criticizing electric vehicles for being just as bad as gas since they rely on the coal-powered electricity grid. But over the past decade the increasing efficiency and uptake of renewables has made EVs considerably cleaner than gas cars, while the film’s claim that solar panels are only meant to last 10 years is bizarre, Rogers notes, considering that “the vast majority of solar panels come with 25-year warranties.”

“Planet of the Humans” fundamentally misrepresents the environmental movement:
As for the integrity of the environmental movement, while there are always bad actors, Bill McKibben and the Sierra Club are not among them. As McKibben explains in one of his rebuttals pointing out that he’s never gotten paid for any of his activism, the documentary failed to reach out to those whom it attacks to fact check their claims. Had they done so, the documentary wouldn’t have made so many errors and misrepresentations. For example, the documentary attacks a supposedly fossil-fuel-free investment fund for actually being invested in fossil fuels, but it was actually looking at the wrong fund all together.
Planet Of The Humans: One Moore Rebuttal To Widely Debunked Anti-Renewables Documentary

Last week marked the 50th anniversary of Earth Day. To celebrate the occasion, filmmaker Michael Moore dropped a new movie he produced, Planet of the Humans. In less than a week, it has racked up over 3 million views on YouTube. But the film, directed by Jeff Gibbs, a long-time Moore collaborator, is not the climate message we’ve all been waiting for — it’s a nihilistic take, riddled with errors about clean energy and climate activism. With very little evidence, it claims that renewables are disastrous and that environmental groups are corrupt. What’s more, it has nothing to say about fossil fuel corporations, who have pushed climate denial and blocked progress on climate policy for decades. Given the film’s loose relationship to facts, I’m not even sure it should be classified as a documentary.

The film has several factual errors about clean energy
It’s not surprising that the film gets basic energy facts wrong and that information included is out of date: There are hardly any climate or energy experts featured. Early in the film, Gibbs goes to see an electric vehicle demonstration. He concludes they are dirty because they probably run on coal. Except it’s not true. Two years ago, electric vehicles already had lower emissions than new gas-powered cars across the country. This is because the US electricity system has been slowly getting cleaner over the past decade.

The film’s wind and solar facts are also old. It quotes efficiency for solar PV from more than a decade ago. And it doesn’t mention the fact that solar costs have plummeted since then, and that we’ve learned how to get more wind and solar onto the grid. The film instead acts like this is impossible to do.
Michael Moore produced a film about climate change that’s a gift to Big Oil

The cycle of life
There is an entire field of science dedicated to what is called “Life Cycle Analysis”—estimating the cradle-to-grave impacts of mining for, manufacturing, using, and disposing of things like solar panels or electric vehicles. That science makes exactly zero appearances in Planet of the Humans. Instead, we are treated to a series of “revelations” that most people should be well aware of. Fossil fuels are still used to manufacture and bring us wind turbines! Raw materials are mined to make electric vehicle batteries! Solar panels don’t last forever and are eventually replaced! Although Tesla says its Gigafactory is generating renewable electricity to cover 100 percent of usage, it’s connected to the grid by power lines!

Demonstrably false claims come fast and furious. No math is done at any point, no data is shown for grid-total emissions over time, and no scientists are consulted to quantify emissions or compare different scenarios. Some of the information presented comes from Gibbs’ strategy of plying industry trade-show sales reps and environmental advocates with awkward questions on camera, then stringing together quick-cut clips of people admitting to downsides. The rest comes from Ozzie Zehner—an author of a book critical of renewable energy titled Green Illusions—who is also listed as producer of the film. Zehner is mostly used to explain how raw materials used in green tech are produced, making claims like “You use more fossil fuels to do this than you’re getting benefit from it.

That’s false. Really, really false. As you’d expect, solar and wind installations produce many times more energy over their lifetimes than was used to produce them, breaking even in a few months to a few years. And that means the lifetime emissions associated with these forms of generations are far, far less than for a gas or coal plant.

The film spends no time on the potential for recycling or alternatives for industrial energy that could shrink the environmental footprint of manufacturing. Instead, the use of any fossil fuel today is treated like a Q.E.D. proof that the whole endeavor is a lie, and it’s on to the next straw man. In one almost impossibly lazy bit, Gibbs and Zehner visit a concentrated solar plant outside Daggett, California, but are surprised to see that the mirrors are missing. “It suddenly dawned on me what we were looking at,” Gibbs narrates. “A solar dead zone.” End scene. It took me less than a minute on Wikipedia to find out that this array, originally completed in 1985, was deconstructed for replacement in 2014-2015. A new photovoltaic array has been online since 2017.

But even setting that aside, these vague solutions don’t do anything that the film’s logic hasn’t already rejected. Green energy is supposedly no solution at all because its environmental footprint is greater than zero. In a hypothetical world where there are many fewer humans on Earth and each one consumes much less, the environmental footprint of humans is still greater than zero. Why is reducing our footprint through cleaner technology a lie and a scam, while reducing our footprint by shrinking population and consumption the truth we must all accept? The film offers no justification.
Michael Moore’s green energy takedown—worse than Netflix’s Goop series?

Not only is the documentary bad, it’s old bad. How much variable energy can a grid accept? Around ten percent, twenty percent tops it appears”, he wrote back then. I’d include examples of grids with higher percentages operating without a hitch today, but it feels almost cruel. As PV Magazine writes, “The film reports on a solar installation in Michigan with PV panels rated at “just under 8 percent” conversion efficiency. It’s difficult to identify the brand of panel in the film (Abound?) — but that efficiency is from another solar era”. Efficiency gains in solar have been so rapid that by leaving the dates off his footage he is very actively deceiving the audience. The site generates 64-64 MWh a year, according to the owner – a more recent installation in the same area generates around 436. The footage really is from another era.

Later, they visit the Solar Energy Generating System (SEGS) solar farm, only to feign sadness and shock when they discover it’s been removed, leaving a dusty field of sand. In the desert. “Then Ozzie and I discovered that the giant solar arrays had been razed to the ground”, he moans. “It suddenly dawned on me what we were looking at. A solar dead zone”. Which is a weird one, because the site they were visiting, SEGS-1 and SEGS-2 site in Daggett, was midway through being replaced with upgraded solar PV, which generates significantly more electricity, is cheaper, has no site emissions and has no water usage, compared to the 1984 technology. Sunray 2 and 3 are now generating electricity – significantly more than the old site. 97,631 megawatt hours in 2018.

You can tell when someone’s knowledge of this has formed solely from doing a Google search for “solar panels bad don’t like”, and it really shows in this film. Early on in the documentary, Gibbs has an exchange with an anti-wind farm protester about coal-fired power. “You need to have a fossil fuel power plant backing it up and idling 100% of the time, because if you cycle up or cycle down as the demand on the wind comes through, you actually generate a bigger carbon footprint if you ran it straight.” This extremely silly concept – that coal-fired power stations run at 100% capacity all the time regardless of how much power they output – is so old it hurts my brain. It’s wrong. If the power plant generates less electricity, it uses less coal. Gibbs is putting this eight-year-old meme in the microwave and serving it up in for his audience.

Later, he presents the work of a researcher named Richard York, who claims that the addition of renewable energy has no impact on fossil fuel output. I can’t access the paper, which is from – you guessed it – 2012, but the premise is mind-numbingly silly. Electric grids match supply and demand at all times. Energy generated from one new source has to replace energy generated from an existing source – the grid would collapse, if it didn’t. That is why South Australia’s grid looks like this. And Denmark looks like this.

Things start to get into proper, outright, anti-vax / climate denier grade misinformation when producer Ozzie Zehner comes in. “One of the most dangerous things right now is the illusion that alternative technologies like solar and wind are somehow different from fossil fuels”, he tells Gibbs. “You use more fossil fuels to do this than you’re getting benefit from it. You would have been better off just burning fossil fuels in the first place, instead of playing pretend”. It is, in fact, possible to scientifically examine the emissions associated with making, transporting and erecting renewable energy, and compare it to the emissions saved by using it. There are just so many studies on this, but here’s the Breakthrough Institute’s Zeke Hausfather:
'If anyone out there watched @MMFlint
's risible documentary trashing renewables because the construction of solar panels and wind turbines uses fossil fuels, you should know that their lifecycle impacts are tiny compared with either coal or gas generation.'

It’s important to be really clear about this: Zehner’s remarks in this film are toxic misinformation, on par with the worst climate change deniers. No matter which way you look at it, there is no chance that these projects lead to a net increase in emissions.
Planet of the humans: A reheated mess of lazy, old myths
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 26 May 2023, 19:53:53

kublikhan wrote:
ralfy wrote:Increasing energy demand and resources using vehicle with low returns and quantity from a biosphere that bats last given limits to growth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZsXyDkyrCk
Posting the same debunked garbage for the third time does not make it anymore true than the first time.

Wind and solar power are much cleaner than fossil fuels:
When it comes to comparing renewable energy sources with fossil fuels, it is true that building solar panels and turbines requires energy, and the issues raised around biomass are hardly new to environmentalists. But the carbon-free energy wind and solar produce more than offsets the initial pollution involved with their production. On top of that, many of the movie’s points on renewable energy and other climate solutions are badly outdated, and no longer close to true, as energy experts Leah Stokes, Ketan Joshi and many others have explained. For example, a debunking from John Rogers at the Union of Concerned Scientists points out the film misleadingly discredits renewables, while also unduly criticizing electric vehicles for being just as bad as gas since they rely on the coal-powered electricity grid. But over the past decade the increasing efficiency and uptake of renewables has made EVs considerably cleaner than gas cars, while the film’s claim that solar panels are only meant to last 10 years is bizarre, Rogers notes, considering that “the vast majority of solar panels come with 25-year warranties.”

“Planet of the Humans” fundamentally misrepresents the environmental movement:
As for the integrity of the environmental movement, while there are always bad actors, Bill McKibben and the Sierra Club are not among them. As McKibben explains in one of his rebuttals pointing out that he’s never gotten paid for any of his activism, the documentary failed to reach out to those whom it attacks to fact check their claims. Had they done so, the documentary wouldn’t have made so many errors and misrepresentations. For example, the documentary attacks a supposedly fossil-fuel-free investment fund for actually being invested in fossil fuels, but it was actually looking at the wrong fund all together.
Planet Of The Humans: One Moore Rebuttal To Widely Debunked Anti-Renewables Documentary

Last week marked the 50th anniversary of Earth Day. To celebrate the occasion, filmmaker Michael Moore dropped a new movie he produced, Planet of the Humans. In less than a week, it has racked up over 3 million views on YouTube. But the film, directed by Jeff Gibbs, a long-time Moore collaborator, is not the climate message we’ve all been waiting for — it’s a nihilistic take, riddled with errors about clean energy and climate activism. With very little evidence, it claims that renewables are disastrous and that environmental groups are corrupt. What’s more, it has nothing to say about fossil fuel corporations, who have pushed climate denial and blocked progress on climate policy for decades. Given the film’s loose relationship to facts, I’m not even sure it should be classified as a documentary.

The film has several factual errors about clean energy
It’s not surprising that the film gets basic energy facts wrong and that information included is out of date: There are hardly any climate or energy experts featured. Early in the film, Gibbs goes to see an electric vehicle demonstration. He concludes they are dirty because they probably run on coal. Except it’s not true. Two years ago, electric vehicles already had lower emissions than new gas-powered cars across the country. This is because the US electricity system has been slowly getting cleaner over the past decade.

The film’s wind and solar facts are also old. It quotes efficiency for solar PV from more than a decade ago. And it doesn’t mention the fact that solar costs have plummeted since then, and that we’ve learned how to get more wind and solar onto the grid. The film instead acts like this is impossible to do.
Michael Moore produced a film about climate change that’s a gift to Big Oil

The cycle of life
There is an entire field of science dedicated to what is called “Life Cycle Analysis”—estimating the cradle-to-grave impacts of mining for, manufacturing, using, and disposing of things like solar panels or electric vehicles. That science makes exactly zero appearances in Planet of the Humans. Instead, we are treated to a series of “revelations” that most people should be well aware of. Fossil fuels are still used to manufacture and bring us wind turbines! Raw materials are mined to make electric vehicle batteries! Solar panels don’t last forever and are eventually replaced! Although Tesla says its Gigafactory is generating renewable electricity to cover 100 percent of usage, it’s connected to the grid by power lines!

Demonstrably false claims come fast and furious. No math is done at any point, no data is shown for grid-total emissions over time, and no scientists are consulted to quantify emissions or compare different scenarios. Some of the information presented comes from Gibbs’ strategy of plying industry trade-show sales reps and environmental advocates with awkward questions on camera, then stringing together quick-cut clips of people admitting to downsides. The rest comes from Ozzie Zehner—an author of a book critical of renewable energy titled Green Illusions—who is also listed as producer of the film. Zehner is mostly used to explain how raw materials used in green tech are produced, making claims like “You use more fossil fuels to do this than you’re getting benefit from it.

That’s false. Really, really false. As you’d expect, solar and wind installations produce many times more energy over their lifetimes than was used to produce them, breaking even in a few months to a few years. And that means the lifetime emissions associated with these forms of generations are far, far less than for a gas or coal plant.

The film spends no time on the potential for recycling or alternatives for industrial energy that could shrink the environmental footprint of manufacturing. Instead, the use of any fossil fuel today is treated like a Q.E.D. proof that the whole endeavor is a lie, and it’s on to the next straw man. In one almost impossibly lazy bit, Gibbs and Zehner visit a concentrated solar plant outside Daggett, California, but are surprised to see that the mirrors are missing. “It suddenly dawned on me what we were looking at,” Gibbs narrates. “A solar dead zone.” End scene. It took me less than a minute on Wikipedia to find out that this array, originally completed in 1985, was deconstructed for replacement in 2014-2015. A new photovoltaic array has been online since 2017.

But even setting that aside, these vague solutions don’t do anything that the film’s logic hasn’t already rejected. Green energy is supposedly no solution at all because its environmental footprint is greater than zero. In a hypothetical world where there are many fewer humans on Earth and each one consumes much less, the environmental footprint of humans is still greater than zero. Why is reducing our footprint through cleaner technology a lie and a scam, while reducing our footprint by shrinking population and consumption the truth we must all accept? The film offers no justification.
Michael Moore’s green energy takedown—worse than Netflix’s Goop series?

Not only is the documentary bad, it’s old bad. How much variable energy can a grid accept? Around ten percent, twenty percent tops it appears”, he wrote back then. I’d include examples of grids with higher percentages operating without a hitch today, but it feels almost cruel. As PV Magazine writes, “The film reports on a solar installation in Michigan with PV panels rated at “just under 8 percent” conversion efficiency. It’s difficult to identify the brand of panel in the film (Abound?) — but that efficiency is from another solar era”. Efficiency gains in solar have been so rapid that by leaving the dates off his footage he is very actively deceiving the audience. The site generates 64-64 MWh a year, according to the owner – a more recent installation in the same area generates around 436. The footage really is from another era.

Later, they visit the Solar Energy Generating System (SEGS) solar farm, only to feign sadness and shock when they discover it’s been removed, leaving a dusty field of sand. In the desert. “Then Ozzie and I discovered that the giant solar arrays had been razed to the ground”, he moans. “It suddenly dawned on me what we were looking at. A solar dead zone”. Which is a weird one, because the site they were visiting, SEGS-1 and SEGS-2 site in Daggett, was midway through being replaced with upgraded solar PV, which generates significantly more electricity, is cheaper, has no site emissions and has no water usage, compared to the 1984 technology. Sunray 2 and 3 are now generating electricity – significantly more than the old site. 97,631 megawatt hours in 2018.

You can tell when someone’s knowledge of this has formed solely from doing a Google search for “solar panels bad don’t like”, and it really shows in this film. Early on in the documentary, Gibbs has an exchange with an anti-wind farm protester about coal-fired power. “You need to have a fossil fuel power plant backing it up and idling 100% of the time, because if you cycle up or cycle down as the demand on the wind comes through, you actually generate a bigger carbon footprint if you ran it straight.” This extremely silly concept – that coal-fired power stations run at 100% capacity all the time regardless of how much power they output – is so old it hurts my brain. It’s wrong. If the power plant generates less electricity, it uses less coal. Gibbs is putting this eight-year-old meme in the microwave and serving it up in for his audience.

Later, he presents the work of a researcher named Richard York, who claims that the addition of renewable energy has no impact on fossil fuel output. I can’t access the paper, which is from – you guessed it – 2012, but the premise is mind-numbingly silly. Electric grids match supply and demand at all times. Energy generated from one new source has to replace energy generated from an existing source – the grid would collapse, if it didn’t. That is why South Australia’s grid looks like this. And Denmark looks like this.

Things start to get into proper, outright, anti-vax / climate denier grade misinformation when producer Ozzie Zehner comes in. “One of the most dangerous things right now is the illusion that alternative technologies like solar and wind are somehow different from fossil fuels”, he tells Gibbs. “You use more fossil fuels to do this than you’re getting benefit from it. You would have been better off just burning fossil fuels in the first place, instead of playing pretend”. It is, in fact, possible to scientifically examine the emissions associated with making, transporting and erecting renewable energy, and compare it to the emissions saved by using it. There are just so many studies on this, but here’s the Breakthrough Institute’s Zeke Hausfather:
'If anyone out there watched @MMFlint
's risible documentary trashing renewables because the construction of solar panels and wind turbines uses fossil fuels, you should know that their lifecycle impacts are tiny compared with either coal or gas generation.'

It’s important to be really clear about this: Zehner’s remarks in this film are toxic misinformation, on par with the worst climate change deniers. No matter which way you look at it, there is no chance that these projects lead to a net increase in emissions.
Planet of the humans: A reheated mess of lazy, old myths


Each source you gave provides half-truths (e.g., solar panels last longer than reported), feel-good axioms (e.g., "the problem is polluters, not people," similar to "the problem are people, not guns"), asides (e.g., solar panels are getting more efficient each time), and insinuations (they want population control). Not one of them deals with the ff.

Much of manufacturing and mechanized agriculture worldwide involves mining, with 70 pct of heavy machinery involving diesel, manufacturing, with up to half involving fossil fuels, and the bulk of extensive supply chains and delivery systems involving the same. In addition, several renewable energy components involve child labor and minerals in poor countries, can't be recycled, rely on funding from the same oil companies and even climate change deniers, require clearing areas of plants for solar power, and involve biomass which have low returns.

Here's where it gets worse given points explained to you several times in this board and that the documentary failed to raise:

Both oil and minerals, on which renewable energy is essentially dependent, face diminishing returns. Hence, peak oil and peak mining. That's why whatever game changers you share in this thread are negated by increasing amounts of energy needed to extract decreasing amounts of oil and minerals, and of lower quality for both, which in turn makes matters worse because they require increasing energy for processing.

Efficiency in for-profit, competitive capitalist systems involve not conservation but increasing consumption and even overproduction. That is, not only should more solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, etc., be made, saturated markets have to be pushed to buy more to make investors happy. And, as pointed out in the documentary and which your sources barely mentioned, the main funders of not only renewable energy but pro-green sources include oil companies and the Kochs, especially for solar panel parts.

Related to that, the same systems require the opposite of population control, as population aging has a negative impact on numbers of workers and consumers. Capitalists want both to continue rising, but there's another thing that they also need: increasing energy and resource consumption per capital.

In this case, not only do we not need to make sure that ICEVs are replaced by EVs, we need to sell more EVs each time, and even incorporate planned obsolescence such that more people will replace their old EVs with new ones shorter than expected. The same applies, ironically to solar panels, including those that experience problems with dust, rodents, and lack of insolation, such that actual energy generated goes below nameplate power:

https://energyskeptic.com/2015/tilting- ... -solar-pv/

Now, I'm sure in response to that, one can argue that it's "old" data and panels are cheaper (confusing the price in dollars to energy returns) and that energy returns are going up (while ignoring the point that diminishing returns affect manufacturing and mining), but just keep in mind that that's only the neoliberal, shilling side that speaks. If one views the documentary carefully, one realizes that it talks about something else.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 26 May 2023, 21:24:09

It's not just old data that that video got wrong, although that was a big one. It flat out got basic facts wrong. Example: it said renewables consume more energy than they produce, which is a flat out lie. That is no more true today than it was a decade ago. It also pointed to a 30 year old solar plant being repowered with modern solar panels as "a solar dead zone". What? Replacing 30 year old solar with new modern panels makes it a "solar dead zone"? The list goes on and on.

Out in the real world we are making solar panels more cheaply, using less energy, using less resources, with lower carbon emissions per panel, etc. And all of this is happening while those diminishing returns are going on. Do you know what that means? Progress is currently outpacing diminishing returns in this field, by alot, and has been for some time now.

But hey, if you had a problem with the debunkings I listed earlier, there are dozens more where they came from. there are over 30 listed on this site alone. Maybe you will find this one more palatable:

As analysts and observers of the transition to a lower-carbon and workable energy economy, we don’t normally write about films. But we’re venturing into the realm of cultural commentary in light of the recent release of Planet of the Humans, produced by Michael Moore. Throughout Moore’s career, he has used documentary films to illuminate social and economic issues in many domains. Sadly, his newest film includes so many misconceptions and so much dated information that we feel compelled to clarify the facts about renewable energy.

We understand the ultimate message of the film: that societies around the world need to make fundamental changes in their consumption patterns. But in a misguided approach to making that point, the filmmakers discredit the value of clean energy technologies and the people that seek to advance their deployment.

Over the last decade, the clean energy industry has changed tremendously. Costs have fallen dramatically, technologies have become more efficient and solutions for integrating renewables into electric grids have advanced. Here are the facts:

1. Renewables replace fossil fuel energy on the grid.
In the U.S. and in virtually every region, when electricity supplied by wind or solar energy is available, it displaces energy produced by natural gas or coal-fired generators. Countless studies have found that because output from wind and solar replaces fossil generation, renewables also reduce CO2 emissions.

Solar and wind farms have dominated new power plant builds in the U.S. in recent years, while fossil fuel plants—particularly coal-fired plants—continue to be retired at record pace. In 2019, wind (9.1GW) and solar (5.3GW) represented 62% of all new generating capacity, compared to 8.3GW of natural gas, while 14GW of coal-fired capacity was retired.

3. Wind and solar plants can be built with minimal environmental impacts, and often with co-benefits.
All power plants, including renewables, result in some environmental impacts during siting, development and operation. Over the past two decades, siting practices for U.S. wind projects have become more sophisticated and effective at minimizing impacts. As a result, wind projects have fewer impacts than other types of projects, falling near the bottom on lists of developments that can have negative effects on the environment and wildlife, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. What’s more, these projects often provide co-benefits. Wind farms sited in rural areas benefit farmers and ranchers by providing annual revenues from $4,000 and $8,000 per turbine, while allowing landowners to continue to use the sites for agriculture or grazing. Additionally, wind farm owners pay county property taxes that support schools, recreation centers and other county activities.

Solar siting practices require environmental investigations to identify and minimize negative impacts. Plans can be developed that provide additional benefits such as protecting wildlife, improving soil health and water retention, nurturing native vegetation, or incorporating pollinator-friendly plants. Additional benefits can include lease income to farmers and county or city tax revenues. Payments to landowners vary widely across the U.S. and can range from $300-1,000 per acre.

And operating these plants, of course, requires no fuel-delivery infrastructure like gas pipelines, propane trucks, coal barges and railroads, all of which produce their own negative environmental impacts.

4. Solar and wind now provide the cheapest power for 67% of the world.
The costs associated with solar and wind have fallen dramatically in recent years. According to BNEF, the cost of energy globally for onshore wind and utility-scale solar is now $44 and $50/MWh (on a levelized basis), compared to $100 and $300/MWh only a decade ago. In the U.S., the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) associated with onshore wind ($24-46/MWh) and utility-scale solar ($31-111/MWh) is now less than that of almost all gas-fired power production. Battery storage, which is crucial to address the variability of wind and solar power, has seen the swiftest global price drop among all technologies, from nearly $600/MWh in 2015 to about $150/MWh in the first half of 2020.

8. Renewables generate more energy than is used in their production, and produce fewer emissions than other power sources over their lifetime.
While all sources of electricity result in some GHG emissions over their lifetime, renewable energy sources have substantially fewer emissions than fossil fuel-fired power plants. One study estimates that renewable energy sources typically emit about 50g or less of CO2 emissions per kWh over their lifetime, compared to about 1000 g CO2/kWh for coal and 475 g CO2/kWh for natural gas.

9. Electric vehicles reduce emissions substantially.
EVs offer substantial emissions benefits — and associated health benefits — because they are two to three times more efficient than conventional internal combustion vehicles and have no tailpipe emissions.

10. Private sector investment in clean energy is critical to lowering GHG emissions.
Aligning financial risk and reward with low-carbon energy investments is critical for shifting the economy in the direction of lower GHG emissions. Without substantial private sector investment in clean energy, it will be more difficult, more costly and more time-consuming to address climate change. Unlike in many other countries where energy providers, including in the electric sector, are publicly owned enterprises, most ownership and investment of electric infrastructure in the United States comes from the private sector. Shifting private investment toward renewables and other zero-carbon energy resources makes good sense and can be a safer investment.

Renewable energy is not perfect. No form of energy is. But people the world over need electricity, and pursuing clean energy sources is far better than continuing down the path of polluting fossil fuels. Renewable energy is an essential, although not exclusive, part of what is needed to address the urgent and important global challenge of climate change.
Setting the Record Straight About Renewable Energy
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 26 May 2023, 23:28:28

I found the best available system to put out EV battery fires. There is a state-of-the-art company in the EU now selling what they call a "FIRE ISOLATER" system which consists of fire resistant blanket to put over the EV and a special watertight "EV Dipping dumpster" where the burned up EV is kept underwater for several days to be sure the fire doesn't restart.

what-is-fire-isolator

Image
An EV can spontaneously burst into flames. Once the fire is put out the EV can spontaneously burst into flames AGAIN hours or even days later, so be sure the fire is really out put the burned up EV in a special bright yellow FIRE ISOLATOR dipping tank or if you don't have the special dipping tank then put the burned up EV in a generic watertight dumpster

Image
Then leave the burned up EV submerged in the water in the dumpster for several days to be sure the battery fire is really out

And according to Firemen in Arizona, if you don't have a watertight dumpster you can just put the burned up EV in any old dumpster and bury it in dirt and leave it there until you are sure it won't spontaneously burst into flames yet again.

PROBLEM SOLVED!!!! :lol: :) 8) :roll:

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 27 May 2023, 09:10:46

Plantagenet wrote:I found the best available system to put out EV battery fires. There is a state-of-the-art company in the EU now selling what they call a "FIRE ISOLATER" system which consists of fire resistant blanket to put over the EV and a special watertight "EV Dipping dumpster" where the burned up EV is kept underwater for several days to be sure the fire doesn't restart.


Excellent! With your wanna be EV having 3X the chance of bursting into flame than my "EV without an ICE in sight", when are you going to get one to keep your neighborhood safe from your highly combustible hybrid? Of course, you could just go get an actual EV nd then stopping worrying about it, because this topic does appear to have you quite concerned. A little more worry than you get from the value of the virtue signaling you bought the hybrid for in the first place perhaps?
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Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 27 May 2023, 14:30:30

Maximizing carbon reduction through the efficient use of Lithium batteries

electric-vehicles-carbon-emissions-HEVs-vs -EVs

lithium battery powered EVs or BEVs are sometimes assumed to be the best way to reduce vehicle CO2 emissions because they are wrongly assumed to be "zero emission" vehicles, i.e. people assume they emit no CO2.

But when you crunch the numbers from the actual data you get a different story.

BEVs actually have MUCH HIGHER CO2 footprints than ICE vehicles to build, because there is an enormous CO2 footprint associated with mining, processing, and building the EV battery. And then there are additional CO2 emissions associated with fossil fuel powered electric power plants.

If the real goal is to reduce CO2 emissions-----then we should be asking if BEVs are the best way to do it? Perhaps there is some alternative that is better for the environment?

And the data says when all the data is collected hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) release less CO2 than BEVs. HEVs are better for the planet then BEVs.

Why should this be?

It comes down to that huge, expensive, and carbon intensive Li battery in every long-range BEV.

Apparently the same amount of Lithium that is needed to build one long range BEV can instead be used to build 90 hybrids (HEVs). That means that while one BEV can replace one ICE vehicle, the same amount of LI resources could be used to build 90 hybrids (HEVS) that would replace 90 ICE vehicles.

And when you crunch the numbers some more you find that the carbon reduction from 90 hybrids replacing 90 ICE vehicles over the lifetimes of the cars, is 37 times GREATER than what you get from a single BEV replacing a single ICE vehicle....

And thats not even taking into account the fact that insurance companies are now refusing to re-insure BEVs that have been in minor accidents, requiring them to be crushed and removed from the roads long before their ostensible "lifetime". This should make the numbers even MORE favorable to HEVs....they may well be 50-100 times better for the environment then BEVs, depending on the number of BEVs that get crushed early in their lifetime due to minor damage in minor accidents.

So the data is in and just as I suspected, BEVs are much worse for the climate than HEVs.

HEY...I think I'll go give my HEV an affectionate pat on the bumper.......it's now certified as being better for the environment than any other kind of car. AHHH....I feel so G R E E N now. It's feels good to do my part to help the planet, unlike those selfish people driving ICE vehicles and BEVs who didn't care enough to check out the actual numbers on CO2 emissions.

Image

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 27 May 2023, 15:41:57

Plantagenet wrote:And the data says when all the data is collected hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) release less CO2 than BEVs. HEVs are better for the planet then BEVs.
Toyota has been cold to EVs for years and prefers selling hybrids. So they try to spin hybrids anyway they can: "If we only have x carbon budget to make batteries, we would save more co2 emissions spreading those few batteries out over many hybrids than a few BEVs." What they don't tell you is that nearly half of those 'savings' are eaten up creating a dual drivetrain for the hybrid. Nor that BEVs have lower lifetime emissions than hybrids because their lower operating emissions close the gap and then overtake hybrids in emission savings. So while the BEVs do cost more co2 to construct, they pull ahead of hybrids over their lifetimes and are better for the planet.

Code: Select all
Vehicle type   Emissions from vehicle manufacturing(metric tons CO2e)
ICE            8.0
Hybrid        10.4
BEV           13.6
MIT: Insights into Future Mobility

This study looked at comparable vehicles like the Toyota Camry and Honda Clarity across their gasoline, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and hydrogen fuel cell configurations. The researchers found that, on average, gasoline cars emit more than 350 grams of CO2 per mile driven over their lifetimes. The hybrid and plug-in hybrid versions, meanwhile, scored at around 260 grams per mile of carbon dioxide, while the fully battery-electric vehicle created just 200 grams. Stats from the U.S. Department of Energy tell a similar story: Using the nationwide average of different energy sources, DOE found that EVs create 3,932 lbs. of CO2 equivalent per year, compared to 5,772 lbs. for plug-in hybrids, 6,258 lbs. for typical hybrids, and 11,435 lbs. for gasoline vehicles.
Are electric vehicles definitely better for the climate than gas-powered cars?

A life-cycle assessment (LCA) of the GHG emissions of passenger cars in Europe was carried out. It considers the most relevant powertrain types—internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), including hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs); plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs); battery electric vehicles (BEVs); and fuel cell electric vehicles(FCEVs).
* Average gasoline and diesel cars correspond to very similar, and relatively high, life-cycle GHG emissions levels (Figure 1). HEVs are found to reduce life-cycle GHG emissions by only about 20% compared to conventional gasoline cars. The GHG emissions of compressed natural gas (CNG) cars can even exceed those of gasoline and diesel cars.
* The life-cycle emissions of lower medium segment BEVs registered in Europe today are already 66%–69% lower than for comparable new gasoline cars.
European Union CO2 standards for new passenger cars and vans: Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions - International Council on Clean Transportation

Not to mention the fire risk in hybrids is much greater than in BEVs:

Recent statistics show that hybrid vehicles actually come in number one with the most fires per 100K sales.

Why hybrid cars are more likely to catch fire than EV cars
The research shows us that a hybrid car fire is more likely to happen and seems to be the most dangerous Fuel type car for fires. But why? Apparently, the presence of a gasoline engine next to a high-powered electric battery system is the cause of most problems with hybrid cars. The combinations of these two together generate a lot of heat. This heat can be dangerous for the lithium-ion battery in the car and possibly cause a thermal runaway and fire.
Why a hybrid car fire is more likely to happen than an EV car fire
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 27 May 2023, 19:57:45

kublikhan wrote:Toyota has been cold to EVs for years


Thats because they think the data shows that switching the auto fleet to HEVs result in lower CO2 emissions happening sooner than switching to BEVs. And thats exactly what I think the world needs---we need to lower CO2 emissions NOW....or at least as soon as possible.

kublikhan wrote: BEVs have lower lifetime emissions than hybrids because their lower operating emissions close the gap and then overtake hybrids in emission savings.


Thats true enough in a theoretical model or an ideal case, but you have to look at the way things operate in the real world. There are some serious problems with imagining you can extrapolate from one idealized BEV in a model to the situation in the real world we live in. Consider the following:

Long Range BEVs are very expensive....up to 2-3 times more expensive the comparable HEV vehicles. That means the number of people who can afford BEVs is much much smaller than the number who can afford HEVs. And here's what that means.....MORE PEOPLE WOULD BUY HEVs OVER BEVs BECAUSE THEY ARE MUCH CHEAPER. Thats significant. If we want to reduce CO2 emissions it's going to be a lot easier to quickly convert the entire auto fleet to all HEVs then to quickly convert to all BEVs because it will be much cheaper.

AND because the HEVs don't require a total rejiggering of the energy infrastructure system to operate, a changeover to HEVs could happen very rapidly. Right now HEVs can perform on the roads in exactly the same way as ICE vehicles. IN contrast BEVs still require huge amounts of infrastructure to be built out before they could totally replace ICE vehicles.

AND, there are a significant number of people who won't buy BEVs right now because of range anxiety and the difficulty of finding chargers for long range trips----both problem that don't exist for HEVs.

AND there just isn't enough manufacturing capacity and LI supply to switch everyone over to BEVs right now....but you could switch the entire vehicle fleet over to HEVs right now, with an immediate significant CO2 savings.

And thats my main interest right now in HEVs and BEVs----I think we need to reduce the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere right NOW.

That isn't going to happen with BEVs....in fact the amount of CO2 per new car manufactured is significantly greater for BEVs as opposed to HEVs and ICE vehicles. That means shifting to BEVs is actually going to cause an INCREASE in CO2 emissions. And that is the opposite of what we want because all CO2 that goes into the atmosphere stays up there for a thousand years.

IMHO ITS DUMB TO INCREASE OUR CO2 EMISSIONS AS THE WORLD IS HEADING FOR EVER GREATER GLOBAL WARMING DUE TO THE INCREASING AMOUNT OF CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

Image
The promise that BEVs will e v e n t u a l l y result in lower CO2 emissions, after initially making CO2 emissions worse and INCREASING the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere reminds me of the religious promise that people would have pie in the sky by and by if they just trusted in Jesus. Just trust in Jesus and everything will turn out OK someday...just trust in EVs and CO2 emissions will go down someday. I don't think waiting for someday is the best approach when we are looking at catastrophic greenhouse warming coming to a planet near you in the next few years.....I think we need to do things reduce our CO2 emission NOW and the fastest thing we can do is ban all sales of ICE vehicles and shift everything to HEVs and BEVS as soon as possible... I bet if ICE vehicles were outlawed tomorrow most people would shift to HEVs and that would certainly help reduce overall CO2 emissions more quickly then waiting for the promised land of all electric transposition to arrive...something that even Elon Musk estimates will take ca. 40 years of transition.

So my bottom line is I want to see ALL NEW ICE VEHICLES BANNED tomorrow and a law passed that mandates a shift over as soon as possible to HEVS and BEVs in all new cars and trucks. Ideally this would be done globally through a UN climate treaty...but since obama blocked that possibility with his worthless Paris climate accords that do nothing to reduce CO2 emissions, hopefully we'll see start to see ICE vehicles banned now on a country by country basis. And if governments won't ban ICE vehicles hopefully they will at least enact carbon taxes on ICE, HEV and BEV vehicles (and lets face facts here----poeple buying new BEVs would pay the highest carbon taxes.)

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 27 May 2023, 21:02:38

kublikhan wrote:It's not just old data that that video got wrong, although that was a big one. It flat out got basic facts wrong. Example: it said renewables consume more energy than they produce, which is a flat out lie. That is no more true today than it was a decade ago. It also pointed to a 30 year old solar plant being repowered with modern solar panels as "a solar dead zone". What? Replacing 30 year old solar with new modern panels makes it a "solar dead zone"? The list goes on and on.

Out in the real world we are making solar panels more cheaply, using less energy, using less resources, with lower carbon emissions per panel, etc. And all of this is happening while those diminishing returns are going on. Do you know what that means? Progress is currently outpacing diminishing returns in this field, by alot, and has been for some time now.

But hey, if you had a problem with the debunkings I listed earlier, there are dozens more where they came from. there are over 30 listed on this site alone. Maybe you will find this one more palatable:

As analysts and observers of the transition to a lower-carbon and workable energy economy, we don’t normally write about films. But we’re venturing into the realm of cultural commentary in light of the recent release of Planet of the Humans, produced by Michael Moore. Throughout Moore’s career, he has used documentary films to illuminate social and economic issues in many domains. Sadly, his newest film includes so many misconceptions and so much dated information that we feel compelled to clarify the facts about renewable energy.

We understand the ultimate message of the film: that societies around the world need to make fundamental changes in their consumption patterns. But in a misguided approach to making that point, the filmmakers discredit the value of clean energy technologies and the people that seek to advance their deployment.

Over the last decade, the clean energy industry has changed tremendously. Costs have fallen dramatically, technologies have become more efficient and solutions for integrating renewables into electric grids have advanced. Here are the facts:

1. Renewables replace fossil fuel energy on the grid.
In the U.S. and in virtually every region, when electricity supplied by wind or solar energy is available, it displaces energy produced by natural gas or coal-fired generators. Countless studies have found that because output from wind and solar replaces fossil generation, renewables also reduce CO2 emissions.

Solar and wind farms have dominated new power plant builds in the U.S. in recent years, while fossil fuel plants—particularly coal-fired plants—continue to be retired at record pace. In 2019, wind (9.1GW) and solar (5.3GW) represented 62% of all new generating capacity, compared to 8.3GW of natural gas, while 14GW of coal-fired capacity was retired.

3. Wind and solar plants can be built with minimal environmental impacts, and often with co-benefits.
All power plants, including renewables, result in some environmental impacts during siting, development and operation. Over the past two decades, siting practices for U.S. wind projects have become more sophisticated and effective at minimizing impacts. As a result, wind projects have fewer impacts than other types of projects, falling near the bottom on lists of developments that can have negative effects on the environment and wildlife, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. What’s more, these projects often provide co-benefits. Wind farms sited in rural areas benefit farmers and ranchers by providing annual revenues from $4,000 and $8,000 per turbine, while allowing landowners to continue to use the sites for agriculture or grazing. Additionally, wind farm owners pay county property taxes that support schools, recreation centers and other county activities.

Solar siting practices require environmental investigations to identify and minimize negative impacts. Plans can be developed that provide additional benefits such as protecting wildlife, improving soil health and water retention, nurturing native vegetation, or incorporating pollinator-friendly plants. Additional benefits can include lease income to farmers and county or city tax revenues. Payments to landowners vary widely across the U.S. and can range from $300-1,000 per acre.

And operating these plants, of course, requires no fuel-delivery infrastructure like gas pipelines, propane trucks, coal barges and railroads, all of which produce their own negative environmental impacts.

4. Solar and wind now provide the cheapest power for 67% of the world.
The costs associated with solar and wind have fallen dramatically in recent years. According to BNEF, the cost of energy globally for onshore wind and utility-scale solar is now $44 and $50/MWh (on a levelized basis), compared to $100 and $300/MWh only a decade ago. In the U.S., the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) associated with onshore wind ($24-46/MWh) and utility-scale solar ($31-111/MWh) is now less than that of almost all gas-fired power production. Battery storage, which is crucial to address the variability of wind and solar power, has seen the swiftest global price drop among all technologies, from nearly $600/MWh in 2015 to about $150/MWh in the first half of 2020.

8. Renewables generate more energy than is used in their production, and produce fewer emissions than other power sources over their lifetime.
While all sources of electricity result in some GHG emissions over their lifetime, renewable energy sources have substantially fewer emissions than fossil fuel-fired power plants. One study estimates that renewable energy sources typically emit about 50g or less of CO2 emissions per kWh over their lifetime, compared to about 1000 g CO2/kWh for coal and 475 g CO2/kWh for natural gas.

9. Electric vehicles reduce emissions substantially.
EVs offer substantial emissions benefits — and associated health benefits — because they are two to three times more efficient than conventional internal combustion vehicles and have no tailpipe emissions.

10. Private sector investment in clean energy is critical to lowering GHG emissions.
Aligning financial risk and reward with low-carbon energy investments is critical for shifting the economy in the direction of lower GHG emissions. Without substantial private sector investment in clean energy, it will be more difficult, more costly and more time-consuming to address climate change. Unlike in many other countries where energy providers, including in the electric sector, are publicly owned enterprises, most ownership and investment of electric infrastructure in the United States comes from the private sector. Shifting private investment toward renewables and other zero-carbon energy resources makes good sense and can be a safer investment.

Renewable energy is not perfect. No form of energy is. But people the world over need electricity, and pursuing clean energy sources is far better than continuing down the path of polluting fossil fuels. Renewable energy is an essential, although not exclusive, part of what is needed to address the urgent and important global challenge of climate change.
Setting the Record Straight About Renewable Energy


The documentary wasn't referring to old data but points made by people who were selling renewable energy components, reports on child labor used to obtain cobalt, the use of many rare metals for nuclear power, the need to destroy habitat in order to set up solar farms, the fact that solar power is intermittent, the fact that fossil fuels are used throughout mining, manufacturing, and shipping, that it's oil companies and even deniers that are funding renewable energy, and so on.

What's not mentioned, and what I added, is that fossil fuels used throughout the process for mining, manufacturing, and mining face diminishing returns, and so do minerals.

Against that are for-profit corporations that expect to sell increasing numbers of components and EVs each time, which means the goal is not to conserve but to consume more energy and material resources each time. It gets worse when one realizes that efficiency in for-profits takes place in order to ensure productivity, and productivity is paid for through more sales, which means greater consumption.

In which case, CO2 emissions will continue to increase, together with the need to get more cheap labor from Third World countries, to clear areas for more "clean" energy, to skirt environmental protection to keep costs low (for-profit, remember?), to ensure planned obsolescence amidst game-changer press releases, and so on, all in order to continue and increase the rate of sales.

If peak oilers are right, i.e., things extracted from the ground face diminishing returns, then those market goals will not be achieved.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 27 May 2023, 23:22:18

Plantagenet wrote:IMHO ITS DUMB TO INCREASE OUR CO2 EMISSIONS AS THE WORLD IS HEADING FOR EVER GREATER GLOBAL WARMING DUE TO THE INCREASING AMOUNT OF CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

The promise that BEVs will e v e n t u a l l y result in lower CO2 emissions, after initially making CO2 emissions worse and INCREASING the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere reminds me of the religious promise that people would have pie in the sky by and by if they just trusted in Jesus. Just trust in Jesus and everything will turn out OK someday...just trust in EVs and CO2 emissions will go down someday.
That is a very ironic position to take considering hybrids initially release more CO2 than an ICE. Let me say that again: Every single hybrid that rolls out of the factory initially increases global warming faster than an ICE does. Because a hybrid takes more co2 to create than an ICE. According to your logic, this is dumb. Because we would have to sit around and pray to Jesus that out in the real world the lower operating emissions of a hybrid balance out the higher manufacturing emissions.

IMHO, we don't have to cross our fingers or pray to Jesus that in the real world hybrids, BEVs, or any other vehicle that has higher initial co2 emissions but lower operating emissions would eventually balance out. Because we have life cycle analysis for things like this. I would rather rely on data than prayer. Or hell, just plain old common sense. Consider this hypothetical. A city is considering building a new badly needed rail line. The roads are heavily congested and people have been demanding this new line get built for years now. They did studies and found that if they build a rail line linking a local employment district with a nearby residential district, it would cut back on trips by car significantly. Some respondents polled even answered that if this rail line was built they would even go car-less or go down from 2-3 cars to 1 car. Long term, this would result in significant CO2 savings. However initially, there would be a significant increase in co2 emissions because of the construction of the rails and train. I do not think it is dumb to go ahead with this plan. I would gladly take this initial burst of co2 emissions to build a proper mass transit system instead of continuing to rely on driving around 2-3 ton metal boxes. Likewise, I do not think it is dumb to have an initially higher burst of co2 emissions for a hybrid or BEV either since they result in lower lifetime emissions.

Plantagenet wrote:And thats my main interest right now in HEVs and BEVs----I think we need to reduce the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere right NOW.
...
So my bottom line is I want to see ALL NEW ICE VEHICLES BANNED tomorrow and a law passed that mandates a shift over as soon as possible to HEVS and BEVs in all new cars and trucks. Ideally this would be done globally through a UN climate treaty...but since obama blocked that possibility with his worthless Paris climate accords that do nothing to reduce CO2 emissions, hopefully we'll see start to see ICE vehicles banned now on a country by country basis.
I think your expectations for a shift away from ICE are too high. Even if large co2 savings where achieved on a per vehicle basis by switching to hybrids and/or BEVs, the expansion of the vehicle fleets in the developing world would quickly eat into those savings. I mean sure, it would still be lower co2 emissions than business as usual. And the vehicle fleets would be cleaner. But overall emissions would still be increasing. Further, transportation only represents around a quarter of co2 emissions. Cars alone even less than that. Even if we somehow got global transportation co2 emissions to start falling, overall emissions could still be increasing because of rising emissions from industry, electricity, agriculture, heating, etc.

And as for your post Ralfy, this is an EV thread. I would appreciate if you stopped derailing every thread with your limits to growth rants. There is already a degrowth thread, post your comments in that thread.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 28 May 2023, 02:47:48

Plantagenet wrote:Thats true enough in a theoretical model or an ideal case, but you have to look at the way things operate in the real world. There are some serious problems with imagining you can extrapolate from one idealized BEV in a model to the situation in the real world we live in. Consider the following:

Long Range BEVs are very expensive....up to 2-3 times more expensive the comparable HEV vehicles. That means the number of people who can afford BEVs is much much smaller than the number who can afford HEVs. And here's what that means.....MORE PEOPLE WOULD BUY HEVs OVER BEVs BECAUSE THEY ARE MUCH CHEAPER. Thats significant. If we want to reduce CO2 emissions it's going to be a lot easier to quickly convert the entire auto fleet to all HEVs then to quickly convert to all BEVs because it will be much cheaper.
Out in the real world, EVs are selling just fine. Look at China, where consumers have less spending power than in the west. EVs are over 25% of the market and some are projecting them taking 35% of the market by the end of the year. This is no idealized theoretical model, this is real world results:

The Driven last week led the reporting with a story on Thursday titled “Legacy auto faces disaster in China with unsellable cars as pollution crunch looms“.

China is the first major market to reach 25% EV sales
While countries like Norway already have a new car market that’s 90% EV, China is the first major market in the world where EVs have reached a market share of 25%.

The emerging problem for the legacy automotive industry that many are now waking up to, is that electric vehicles are now taking massive chunks of market share away from petrol and diesel cars. Even in Australia, the sales numbers of full battery electrics has overtaken that of the hybrids that many Japanese car firms have bet their future on: See EV sales overtake hybrids in Australia, grab 6.8% of overall new car market.

Moving faster than expected, EVs to hit 35% by the end of 2023
The sheer speed at which the Chinese market is moving will compound the current problems. EV market share in 2022 grew at a staggering 93% over 2021. Back in 2021 Reuters reported that EV sales in China were expected to hit 35% in 2025. Fast forward to March 2023, Bloomberg is forecasting that the Chinese market is likely to reach that milestone this year.
EVs to grab 35 pct share of world’s biggest car market as crisis looms for legacy brands

Plantagenet wrote:AND there just isn't enough manufacturing capacity and LI supply to switch everyone over to BEVs right now....but you could switch the entire vehicle fleet over to HEVs right now, with an immediate significant CO2 savings.
Actually, there is currently a glut of battery capacity. Manufacturers are cutting back on production because supply is greater than demand. There is no need for supply to ramp up to accommodate a 100% shift to EVs because demand is not there yet. Supply can ramp up slowly with demand.

China has been the most aggressive in the world in carrying out capacity expansions for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. China news media recently warned that an oversupply of cathode materials.
China's LFP battery cathode material capacity glut will surface in 2023-2024?

Chinese battery makers cut production in April to clear inventories.
Chinese Battery Makers Cut Production to Ease Glut

Major electric-vehicle (EV) battery markers in China have been cutting their headcount because they’re not receiving enough orders to fully utilize their fast-growing production capacity.
China’s EV battery sector enters down cycle

Plantagenet wrote:AND because the HEVs don't require a total rejiggering of the energy infrastructure system to operate, a changeover to HEVs could happen very rapidly. Right now HEVs can perform on the roads in exactly the same way as ICE vehicles. IN contrast BEVs still require huge amounts of infrastructure to be built out before they could totally replace ICE vehicles.

AND, there are a significant number of people who won't buy BEVs right now because of range anxiety and the difficulty of finding chargers for long range trips----both problem that don't exist for HEVs.
AND, hybrids offer much smaller co2 savings compared to BEVs:

HEVs are found to reduce life-cycle GHG emissions by only about 20% compared to conventional gasoline cars. The life-cycle emissions of lower medium segment BEVs registered in Europe today are already 66%–69% lower than for comparable new gasoline cars.
European Union CO2 standards for new passenger cars and vans: Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions - International Council on Clean Transportation
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 28 May 2023, 09:33:17

ralfy wrote:If peak oilers are right, i.e., things extracted from the ground face diminishing returns, then those market goals will not be achieved.


Peak oilers were not right- Ref Matthew Simmons: “Global crude oil peaked in 2005” (interview) and made up concepts AFTER it was discovered that peak oilers didn't know much about oil, geology, resources, etc etc about diminishing returns and whatnot are just a bunch of who shot John nonsense, as the definition of peak oil doesn't say a word about such claptrap.

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which it is argued that production will begin an irreversible decline.

See? No diminishing returns.Just less oil. This is peak oil 101 stuff.
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Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 29 May 2023, 20:54:52

kublikhan wrote:And as for your post Ralfy, this is an EV thread. I would appreciate if you stopped derailing every thread with your limits to growth rants. There is already a degrowth thread, post your comments in that thread.


You keep forgetting the following:

70 pct of heavy mining equipment, up to half of manufacturing, and the bulk of shipping involve fossil fuels. Those including petrochemicals are needed to make EVs.

The bulk of EV manufacturers are for-profit and competing with each other. That means they have to overproduce and want people to overconsume. The first refers to manufacturing more than what's needed in order to attain greater market share, and the second refers to planned obsolescence, marketing, etc., so that people will be enticed to buy earlier.

Much of the world isn't industrialized, and energy and material resources needed to use EVs will be much greater than what the biosphere allows. In short, you're not just looking at increased carbon emissions for making EVs but increased carbon emissions for making more EVs each time, discarding and buying more EVs and components each time, and developing infrastructure needed to use them.

You're silent about the first, which is not surprising because they are actually the main points of the documentary you did not actually debunk (it also adds that rare metals are needed for various RE components, that several of the latter can't be recycled, that cheap and even child labor are needed to obtain several minerals, and that the main funders of RE component manufacturer turn out to be oil companies and climate change deniers), but you did acknowledge the second.

Given that, I think this is not a derailment of the thread but points directly related to EVs that you know but aren't talking about.
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