[TonyPrep]

The last chart I saw of oil production showed a peak in November 2018. Has it increased beyond that yet?

[AdamB]

The last chart I saw of oil production showed a peak in November 2018. Has it increased beyond that yet?

Nope. #6 claimed or occurred peak oil of this century was 2018.

Here is what was claimed in the days and months to follow back when peak oil was a real thing. Obviously, the backpedaling, if not outright revisionist history, is what has happened since. We don't even talk about it much around here anymore. No one is using it for their top level fear mongering scheme, most of the LATOC and LATOC-like sites vanished after becoming conspiracy dens, folks like Ruppert and Colin Campbell died, Matt Savinar became a substitute school teacher when it turns out that being a palm reader didn't pay well, Mike Lynch doesn't even have anyone left to argue with, and those who knew it was a crock back then kick out an occasional "told you so" comment, but otherwise the idea has passed into history. After all, it happened 5 years ago, and what you see around the world doesn't compare at all with the reference above for what the consequences were supposed to be.

[TonyPrep]

Covid, in 2020, depressed demand which has only just started to get back to where it was. Oil storage may have helped boost supply (e.g. the US released quite a lot from its strategic reserve (making a mockery of "strategic", perhaps). Yup, consequences aren't yet too apparent but give it time. There may be temporary factors which have masked the reduced supply but that has been trending up recently, from IEA reports.

[AdamB]

Covid, in 2020, depressed demand which has only just started to get back to where it was.

Peak oil #6 this century had already happened. As the previously provided link demonstrates, the consequences of peak were assumed to happen quite quickly. So is peak oil #6 a crock, again, because we didn't see those consequences, or were those early 20th century peak oil claimants as halfwitted and uninformed as some of us were happily pointing out contemporaneously?

And what happened after the initial Covid demand crash? It came back. And looks to be expected to continue coming back as well. From, I might add, the only peak oil claimant of the early 21st century (published 2004 I believe?) that hasn't had their estimate discredited by...you guessed it...more oil.

Oil storage may have helped boost supply (e.g. the US released quite a lot from its strategic reserve (making a mockery of "strategic", perhaps). Yup, consequences aren't yet too apparent but give it time.

Indeed. See graph above. Good thing consequences aren't even visible yet....5 years after PO #6.

Do you have any informed guess as to what the final number of peak oils this century might be? Is #6 it? Or could there be a #7 here in a year or two? #8 after another demand/suppy cycle? #9 when price increases and kicks in some of those profitable at those prices resources I've mentioned?

There may be temporary factors which have masked the reduced supply but that has been trending up recently, from IEA reports.

And has been documented each and every month since the Covid collapse by the EIA. No need to count on the IEA reports when the EIA (not discredited by peak oil claims as the IEA has been) happily provides this information every month.

[Outcast_Searcher]

As always, unless there is ACTUALLY a FUNDAMENTAL problem with there being "enough oil", then when a long enough and strong enough price signal indicates more global demand, over time, more oil should be PRODUCED to meet that demand at those higher prices (presumably for fat profits).

So there should be no surprise to the figures this time around, except for the usual all-doom-all-the-time crowd which endlessly bleats "peak oil has been reached" sans meaningful evidence. (Since they apparently NEVER learn, how could they not be endlessly surprised?)

Of course, at some point, when enough ICE demand is shifting to EV's, there will be less total global demand for crude oil (even if petrochemical and, say, asphalt demand keeps rising globally, which it might well if we keep growing the global population and much of it aspires to the middle class level of consumption). At that point, prices should moderate or even fall quite a bit, which will put the lie (over time) to the idea that THIS TIME, we're into "peak oil doom", but of course, it won't for the usual suspects.

[Plantagenet]

Of course, at some point, when enough ICE demand is shifting to EV's, there will be less total global demand for crude oil

Exactly right.....but I wonder when will that happen?

Its not happening yet....in fact the data suggests that global demand for oil is likely to hit a new high in 2023 due to significant growth in oil demand in China and other Asian consumers.

oil-demand-to-be-driven-by-asia-this-year-as-china-reopens-iea-says

And China has been signing long term deals with Russia, Iran and now Saudi Arabia to guarantee their own oil supplies for decades into the future.

China itself says it will hit peak petroleum consumption levels in 2030....and perhaps it will.

But the new chinese oil deals with Russia and Saudi are set up to guarantee huge amounts of oil will be delivered to China way past 2030.


China has been signing long term deals with Russia, Iran and now Saudi Arabia to guarantee their own oil supplies for decades into the future

Cheers!!