[AdamB]

Adam - I suspect you understand the problem he, and others, had was that the timing of PO depended on much more than the amount of oil left to be drilled. The demand from the global economy being one big reason for instance.

Oh...Rock...I suspect I understand far more about peak oil than I am willing to discuss around here. I have found that the nuance within the peak oil claims, models, claimants, and fields of science reaching through 3, yes 3 centuries now, is rarely appreciated. Folks tend to be familiar with their topic of interest within the overarching subject, and get tangled up quickly when you broaden the topic outside their scope, or narrow it to that nuance that negates perhaps their entire perspective. I have learned that the beauty and power of a multidisciplinary approach can do that. In any case, I will find the topic interesting until the day I die, and one day the fully integrated scientific understanding of it might come in handy all over again.

[Tuike]

If there aren't much new posts to read in the forum, there is a nice peak oil Youtube video linked to front page.
https://peakoil.com/geology/peak-oil-th ... adjustment

[AdamB]

If there aren't much new posts to read in the forum, there is a nice peak oil Youtube video linked to front page.
https://peakoil.com/geology/peak-oil-th ... adjustment

A history major turned petroleum geologist who is famously known for claiming, on video and the steps of the Forrestal Building housing DOE back around 2011, that there is "no significant oil" in US shales, might be a "nice" video, but bugs bunny was nice as well, and would appear to be as well educated as Art on the subject.

[theluckycountry]

It's just a game



The Bright Green Future

[AdamB]

Peak Oil The Hedonic Adjustment

Arthur Berman: "Peak Oil - The Hedonic Adjustment" Episode 54 January 18, 2023 (Conversation recorded on January 2nd, 2022) Show Summary On this episode, petroleum geologist Arthur Berman returns to unpack the development and drawbacks of ‘peak oil’.

[jato0072]

Our shifting energy landscape requires a new way to measure the amount of energy that can be extracted from any given source against the energy required to produce and distribute it....

The Utility of EROI

With our new energy landscape has come a new and increasingly prominent metric. Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is a ratio used to measure the amount of usable energy that can be extracted from a particular energy source compared to the amount of energy required to extract, process, and distribute that energy source.

Plummeting EROI of Oil Liquids

The global energy landscape is facing a crucial turning point. Various studies show that oil liquid production is expected to peak in 2035 at a magnitude of 500 petajoule per day (PJ/d), but when the energy required for the extraction and production of these liquids is taken into account, the net-energy peak is expected to occur in 2025 at a level of 400 PJ/d (Delannoy et al. 2021). For context, the US consumed 100,000 petajoules of energy in 2021.

Plummeting 'Energy Return on Investment' of Oil and the Impact on Global Energy Landscape

Good article.

[AdamB]

Plummeting EROI of Oil Liquids
Plummeting 'Energy Return on Investment' of Oil and the Impact on Global Energy Landscape

Good article.

Depends. Someone with a peak oil angle, knowing they don't want to be discredited the same way some of his compatriots have been (Tad springs to mind) switches into a metric that reveals a lack of industry experience demonstrating how, you know, how oil and gas development work.

He must have missed all of Charlie's work going back to the early 80's proving that eroei hasn't ever worked out for much of anything beyond an interesting theory for those who need a red herring to retreat to after being burned by various types of peak oil claims that didn't work out.

[jato0072]

Actually, Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI often shortened to EROI) is a way to measure or calculate surplus energy. I am sure you understand Adam. Organisms and Civilizations need surplus energy. Organisms (Life) has been around far longer than human derived currency / money. EROEI matters to all organisms, even if they have no idea what it is, kind of like gravity or the laws of entropy. If an animal expends more energy than it consumes, it will eventually die.

No amount of money will power machines, obtain resources, feed animals or humans. So if you want to say money drives some human behaviors, I totally agree. Energy powers everything and is fundamental. Measuring EROEI can said to be irrelevant in an environment which has large quantities of surplus energy, weather it is the first half of the fossil fuel production curve or a newly discovered valley filled with vast food resources. However, IF surplus energy we need for our current civilization is diminishing, it would be wise to utilize EROEI. Regardless of current Human behavior, EROEI would be a far better way to manage sources of energy than highly manipulated fiat debt / currencies.

[AdamB]

Actually, Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI often shortened to EROI) is a way to measure or calculate surplus energy. I am sure you understand Adam.

Of course I understand what it is. And why it isn't used in oil and gas activity by anyone, stockholders don't benefit from higher/lower based eroei development, the CEOs, the project managers, the engineers and geologists, etc etc. The core issue is that energy returned on energy invested isn't the metric that drives this development, $ returned on $ spent is. And because identical BTUs (an energy measure) have different values in the human value schema (the value of a BTU of sunlight versus a BTU of natural gas for example) this metric is just interesting from an academic standpoint.

I understand both what it is, and why folks would like to use it, and why it is irrelevant.

No amount of money will power machines, obtain resources, feed animals or humans.

Amusingly, this same argument was made for why peak oil wouldn't be solved by more money. And then when the first 4 peak oils of this century went down the tubes, the main reason claimed for WHY was all the money created during the QE exercise.

So if you want to say money drives some human behaviors, I totally agree. Energy powers everything and is fundamental. Measuring EROEI can said to be irrelevant in an environment which has large quantities of surplus energy, weather it is the first half of the fossil fuel production curve or a newly discovered valley filled with vast food resources.

I'll stick with eroei being irrelevant because it just is, when it comes to how the human value system works in general.

However, IF surplus energy we need for our current civilization is diminishing, it would be wise to utilize EROEI. Regardless of current Human behavior, EROEI would be a far better way to manage sources of energy than highly manipulated fiat debt / currencies.

It might be wise to utilize eroei for...something...but unless the world picks up Hubbert's belief in how a Technocracy economic system would work, eroei will continue to remain irrelevant. The basic reason being because the value in the form of a BTU isn't taken into account within the eroei schema.

Here is my standard thought experiment demonstrating why.

I will trade you all the sunlight BTUs in my backyard, for an equivalent amount of crude oil BTUs. You install solar panels in my backyard and a long extension cord to get it where you want it, and I'll install a tank at the end of your driveway, and trade you BTU for BTU sunlight to oil all day/week/month/year long. Makes perfect sense in an eroei world, an even-steven trade. And you won't make that trade with me in a million years.

[jato0072]

You install solar panels in my backyard and a long extension cord to get it where you want it, and I'll install a tank at the end of your driveway... Makes perfect sense in an eroei world, an even-steven trade.

You obviously don't understand EROEI.

[AdamB]

You install solar panels in my backyard and a long extension cord to get it where you want it, and I'll install a tank at the end of your driveway... Makes perfect sense in an eroei world, an even-steven trade.

You obviously don't understand EROEI.

I understand it so well, you can't find a way to circumnavigate a simple question designed to reveal the point I detailed in the same post. The value of the form of a BTU matters. Feel free to argue, inform, reference or prove I am wrong.

Would you like to discuss how the professionals ATTEMPT to get around this problem, or are you unfamiliar with how Charlie began doing it in the published literature in the late 80's?

[theluckycountry]

You obviously don't understand EROEI.[/quote]

Adam doesn't understand anything, that's the consequence of a life spent in front of the TV set, it's why his posts read like soundBites off the 6:00 news.

EROEI as many calculate it is flawed in my opinion. This is because they fail to include the 'foodchain' of parasites all demanding a cut of the action. The company profits, the shareholders, the government cut, the brokers fees, the service station overheads, the railway profits and overheads, the trucking costs, wall-street profits and bonuses, on and on it goes.

Our whole modern civilization was built on cheap Hi eroei oil, built on the diesel truck some claim, and while it's possible to get oil or coal or gas out of the ground at a low EROEI, it's just going to sit there because no one would be incentivized to move and process and distribute it without their cut. The only exception to this would be the military, but gas for my car? Forget it.

That is what's fundamentally wrong with the economy of the world today I believe. They are trying to do business at 6:1 that used to be successful at 10:1 and greater.

It doesn't help matters either when have delusional reports that claim

The US average EROI across all generating technologies is about 40
https://world-nuclear.org/information-l ... tment.aspx

Don't even bother reading it, it's pure crap and full of bogus statistics. Oil! That is really the only EROEI that matters in our world. Without the oil nothing moves and workers in esoteric solar farms out in the desert starve to death.

[AdamB]

Oil! That is really the only EROEI that matters in our world. Without the oil nothing moves and workers in esoteric solar farms out in the desert starve to death.

The oil as master resource angle is amusing, old, and comes from folks who are ignorant of what has taken humans from clever monkeys to landing people on the moon. In the First World, we refer to those folks as provincials, and hope they are fortunate enough one day to be able to emigrate to a real country.

[jawagord]

Our shifting energy landscape requires a new way to measure the amount of energy that can be extracted from any given source against the energy required to produce and distribute it....

The Utility of EROI

With our new energy landscape has come a new and increasingly prominent metric. Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is a ratio used to measure the amount of usable energy that can be extracted from a particular energy source compared to the amount of energy required to extract, process, and distribute that energy source.

Plummeting EROI of Oil Liquids

The global energy landscape is facing a crucial turning point. Various studies show that oil liquid production is expected to peak in 2035 at a magnitude of 500 petajoule per day (PJ/d), but when the energy required for the extraction and production of these liquids is taken into account, the net-energy peak is expected to occur in 2025 at a level of 400 PJ/d (Delannoy et al. 2021). For context, the US consumed 100,000 petajoules of energy in 2021.

Plummeting 'Energy Return on Investment' of Oil and the Impact on Global Energy Landscape

Good article.

Generally only Idiots and Energy Economists discuss EROEI, how many of us here are economists? The price mechanism determines what resources we use, EROEI is embedded in the price mechanism. The price mechanism includes a resources Utility and the Utility of refined oil doesn’t depend on the feedstock crudes relative EROEI.

The author reveals his motivation for the article at the end. Carbon Taxes and resource development restrictions in the name of Climate Change will have a far greater impact on humanity by making energy expensive than declining EROEI.

On the one hand, we clearly have too much fossil fuels stock to respect ambitious climate targets.

[jato0072]

The was a good critique jawagord.

The price mechanism determines what resources we use

I wish it did. I also wish we had a "free market" economy. (#Real Capitalism has never been tried).

To push back a little, California Governor Gavin Newsome (just one example) and his party have been in the process of banning ICE yard equipment, passenger vehicles and natural gas appliances. So I agree when you say this:

... restrictions in the name of Climate Change will have a far greater impact on humanity by making energy expensive...

Central Planning - The outright banning of certain fossil fuels will also determine what we will use.

[AdamB]

Generally only Idiots and Energy Economists discuss EROEI, how many of us here are economists?

Depends. How many years of working with economists, and gaining the ability to fight them to a draw or even sometimes win is considered the equivalent of being one?

The price mechanism determines what resources we use, EROEI is embedded in the price mechanism. The price mechanism includes a resources Utility and the Utility of refined oil doesn’t depend on the feedstock crudes relative EROEI.

That is an excellent explaination of it. Usually I just laugh and giggle and make fun of suckers who fall for it, but if you don't mind, I'd like to use this quote in the future when someone is being serious and doesn't deserve the "aren't you stupid" schtick.

On the one hand, we clearly have too much fossil fuels stock to respect ambitious climate targets.

Sure. But targets are targets, not accomplishments. Targets are easy. "My target weight is 190 lbs." See how easy that was? Not a single nanosecond of effort required to have a target. Just like, say, COP21 and gangs of hopeful folks most of if not all of whom have never been put in charge of generating a result in their lives.

[ralfy]

Our shifting energy landscape requires a new way to measure the amount of energy that can be extracted from any given source against the energy required to produce and distribute it....

The Utility of EROI

With our new energy landscape has come a new and increasingly prominent metric. Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is a ratio used to measure the amount of usable energy that can be extracted from a particular energy source compared to the amount of energy required to extract, process, and distribute that energy source.

Plummeting EROI of Oil Liquids

The global energy landscape is facing a crucial turning point. Various studies show that oil liquid production is expected to peak in 2035 at a magnitude of 500 petajoule per day (PJ/d), but when the energy required for the extraction and production of these liquids is taken into account, the net-energy peak is expected to occur in 2025 at a level of 400 PJ/d (Delannoy et al. 2021). For context, the US consumed 100,000 petajoules of energy in 2021.

Plummeting 'Energy Return on Investment' of Oil and the Impact on Global Energy Landscape

Good article.

Generally only Idiots and Energy Economists discuss EROEI, how many of us here are economists? The price mechanism determines what resources we use, EROEI is embedded in the price mechanism. The price mechanism includes a resources Utility and the Utility of refined oil doesn’t depend on the feedstock crudes relative EROEI.

The author reveals his motivation for the article at the end. Carbon Taxes and resource development restrictions in the name of Climate Change will have a far greater impact on humanity by making energy expensive than declining EROEI.

On the one hand, we clearly have too much fossil fuels stock to respect ambitious climate targets.

Economists will use money to measure economic factors because that's what they're supposed to do. The problem is that money consists essentially of numbers in hard drives, which makes it together with pricing that involves speculation pointless, e.g., prices plummeting during the initial stages of a pandemic, and then going up again, demand going up with prices and causing prices to go down as it drops, etc.

Given that, it makes more sense to look at energy, as that does not change no matter how much funny money is created.

[AdamB]

Economists will use money to measure economic factors because that's what they're supposed to do. The problem is that money consists essentially of numbers in hard drives, which makes it together with pricing that involves speculation pointless, e.g., prices plummeting during the initial stages of a pandemic, and then going up again, demand going up with prices and causing prices to go down as it drops, etc.

RALFY!!! Long time no see!! Did you know that TonyPrep showed up recently as well? It's like old home week with some of the OG Happy McPeaksters! I thought you folks would never crawl back out of the black hole of embarassment on this topic! Hopefully you and yours are stil well, these decades since you thought the world was ending, and running out of oil, etc etc?

Anyway, not all money is on hard drives, as the cash I keep in a safe in the house might attest. Lucky is a fan of hoarding gold (and hoping his neighbors don't know where he hides it!). And you described the pandemic reaction well in terms of changes in supply and demand, in your opinion was it better or worse than the economic consequences of peak oil that wasn't in 2008? Not the REAL peak oil of course, but the peak oil suckers of 15 years ago went for it like ducks to water.

Given that, it makes more sense to look at energy, as that does not change no matter how much funny money is created.

[/quote]

True. And as has been pointed out, eroei has been happily decreasing for decades now while volumes of oil and gas, societal complexitiy and more stuff being created and built has been increasing. Completely negatively correlated. I'll bet the net energy enthusiasts are still trying to explain that one away!

[jato0072]

Given that, it makes more sense to look at energy,

Energy has been around longer than humans or their social construct called "money". Only in the past few thousand years has money been a motivator in human behavior. Al other animals know money is worthless.

[AdamB]

Given that, it makes more sense to look at energy,

Energy has been around longer than humans or their social construct called "money". Only in the past few thousand years has money been a motivator in human behavior. Al other animals know money is worthless.

All other animals can't land their species on the moon either. Maybe money is just part of the construct needed to...you know...not be like all those other animals? For better or worse of course.