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Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Thu 19 Jan 2023, 22:49:02

AdamB wrote:
Can it be manufactured by countries with citizens so limited in their intellectual and manufacturing capability that they can't build automobiles for their people? And when America builds state of the art, top notch and mostly incomparable to anything else in the world military hardware, it doesn't tend to worry about cost.


Countries that export large amounts of natural resources have difficulty maintaining a manufacturing sector -- it's cheaper to import manufactured goods because the natural resource exports push up the value of the currency. Interestingly, Australia was planning to build French designed nuclear submarines, changed the plan to build cheaper conventional submarines and finally dropped the idea of building any submarines. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack-class_submarine

The US has the advantage of maintaining a permanent naval warship construction capability. In Canada warships are constructed on a very irregular basis so the knowledge and infrastructure to build them has to be reacquired each time we start the cycle again. The political requirement to build new ships in Canada results in horrendously high costs compared to countries like the US. I would expect Australia to have the same problem if they had proceeded with a project to build submarines.

AdamB wrote:
Yellowcanoe wrote:
Some AIP systems such as fuel cell based units can provide quieter operation than a nuclear submarine which requires pumps in the reactor system to operate all the time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-indep ... propulsion


Yup. I watched a story about some Scandavanian sub captain in war games against a US carrier task force that was able to penetrate its sub screen and score hits on the carrier, a non-nuke boat. There are alternatives out there, are you aware of any with the kind of global reach nuke boats have?

And if it isn't rude, is there a significance to your username? Just curious.


I don't see any alternative to nuclear for global reach. I would also suggest that the US and Canada should be acquiring nuclear powered icebreakers just as russia has been doing for quite a long time. Given the power requirement to punch through thick ice, nuclear is clearly better than fossil fueled and eliminates the potential need to be refueled in a remote Arctic/Antarctic location.

Yellowcanoe is a reference to my yellow coloured solo canoe.
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Re: Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 20 Jan 2023, 00:55:04

yellowcanoe wrote:Yellowcanoe is a reference to my yellow coloured solo canoe.


Cool! I've never been much of a water guy. My uncle is famous in the family, plus got his story in the local paper when on the day he was supposed to be in Michigan getting his college diploma instead dropped a canoe into a small tributary of the Allegheny RIver in Pennsylvania. My grandparents picked him up early in the fall in New Orleans. I think adventures like that are just cool, bicycles, canoes, backpacking, Prudhoe Bay to Tierra del Fuego via motorycle, stuff like that.
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Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 20 Jan 2023, 16:09:29

yellowcanoe wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Any country that has built nuke subs knows this, the Neanderthal ones running around using silly diesel/electrics might not, lacking previously mentioned talents necessary to understand the power of the atom.


Just FYI, a number of Air Independent Propulsion systems have been developed that enable better submerged performance than a basic diesel/electric submarine. While not as good as a nuclear submarine it is certainly a cheaper option. Some AIP systems such as fuel cell based units can provide quieter operation than a nuclear submarine which requires pumps in the reactor system to operate all the time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-indep ... propulsion


Actually the USN pioneered "Natural Circulation Reactors" starting with the Ohio class SSBN back in the early 1980's. They only use pumps in emergency conditions, the rest of the time they simply open and close valves to control the natural flow rate through the reactor to control the power levels. Great system for an SSBN boat, they really are a sonic hole in the ocean, they generate almost no noise and their foam rubber coating absorbs external sounds that run into them instead of letting them reflect back at high strength. COntrary to the popular understanding when an active sonar ping hits a submarine it isn't the metal hull that reflects the sound, it is the pocket of air with its extreme low density that reflects the noise. The foamed rummer coating absorbs and damps out the sound with thousands of tiny bubbles sort of the same way a crack in a bell sets up an interference pattern that damps out its ring.
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Re: Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 20 Jan 2023, 16:57:42

Tanada wrote: COntrary to the popular understanding when an active sonar ping hits a submarine it isn't the metal hull that reflects the sound, it is the pocket of air with its extreme low density that reflects the noise.


So upon submerging, and with pressure increasing to hundreds of pounds upon the sub diving, there is a layer of air coating the hull still hanging around? So, I presume air doesn't want to naturally follow the hull as it submerges, and most would float away because of buoyancy, bubbles stuck to the hull could then be swept away by forward motion of the boat, what little might stick through capillary pressure stick would certainly be compressed into a far smaller volume than it would be on the surface, and this is where the sonar reflectiveness of a sub comes from? As opposed to the sound wave smacking into the solid object the air bubble is stuck to? That is wild.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 20 Jan 2023, 20:19:04

AdamB wrote:
Tanada wrote: COntrary to the popular understanding when an active sonar ping hits a submarine it isn't the metal hull that reflects the sound, it is the pocket of air with its extreme low density that reflects the noise.


So upon submerging, and with pressure increasing to hundreds of pounds upon the sub diving, there is a layer of air coating the hull still hanging around? So, I presume air doesn't want to naturally follow the hull as it submerges, and most would float away because of buoyancy, bubbles stuck to the hull could then be swept away by forward motion of the boat, what little might stick through capillary pressure stick would certainly be compressed into a far smaller volume than it would be on the surface, and this is where the sonar reflectiveness of a sub comes from? As opposed to the sound wave smacking into the solid object the air bubble is stuck to? That is wild.


For a layperson understanding check out the wikipedia on the technology.
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Re: Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 21 Jan 2023, 01:28:35

yellowcanoe wrote:
Countries that export large amounts of natural resources have difficulty maintaining a manufacturing sector -- it's cheaper to import manufactured goods because the natural resource exports push up the value of the currency.


That's the text book theory, but in the early half, and latter parts, of the 20th century the US was a huge exporter of oil and at the same time had an expanding manufacturing sector.

Interestingly, Australia was planning to build French designed nuclear submarines, changed the plan to build cheaper conventional submarines and finally dropped the idea of building any submarines.


That whole business was political, we were never going to build them here, our small population, 25 million, simply doesn't have the the expertise. It would be stupid to tool up and build a small number of nuclear subs when existing industries in larger nations are already doing it.

We lost our native car manufacturing a couple of years ago, Holden (GM) and ford plants closed down. Personally I think it was smart, the cars were average and such industries are a drain on the economy because they can only survive with large government subsidies. The Japanese are the world leaders in car manufacturing, have been for decades, and most of my motorcycles and all my cars are Japanese. If you can swallow the BS national pride and all the tripe about how you're supporting you country by buying substandard products you can actually have a great driving experience.
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Re: Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 21 Jan 2023, 18:01:33

theluckycountry wrote:
Interestingly, Australia was planning to build French designed nuclear submarines, changed the plan to build cheaper conventional submarines and finally dropped the idea of building any submarines.


That whole business was political, we were never going to build them here, our small population, 25 million, simply doesn't have the the expertise.


Yes. The world knows. Quarter of a millenia after Americans kicked out the monarchy with muskets and guts, those who "don't have any expertise with"...anything apparently... and lack the stomache? nerve? cajones? are still bootlickers of the Crown. While trying to bribe the Chinese with their natural resources to allow them to become a lackey to the ChiComs instead. Sheer genius down there south of the equator.

LuckyCountry wrote:It would be stupid to tool up and build a small number of nuclear subs when existing industries in larger nations are already doing it.


In other words, you would have to grow more brains in your country, or import them because breeding stock locally ain't much, to figure out how to get a modern manufacturing base, and then apply it to said manufacturing, and your Chinese overlords probably wouldn't approve anyway. So instead, a country decides, hey! lets just keep being impotent.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 04 Feb 2023, 12:09:27

The Saudis are saying they have no spare capacity to keep with rising demand?

I wonder who does have spare capacity?

As China opens up now the demand for oil is going to go up….but where will more oil come from?

Does anyone have any ideas where the next big oil find will be?

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