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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 20 Nov 2022, 15:06:59

The_Toecutter wrote:10 years ago I made the argument that Tesla should have been using the LiFePO4 chemistry all along.
I remember :) You were a proponent of LFP even back then arguing Tesla should use them.

The_Toecutter wrote:They could have compensated the lower energy density by getting drag even lower. "Aerodynamics of Road Vehicles" by Wolf-Heinrich Hucho concluded nearly 40 years ago that it is possible for a practical road-going sedan to have a Cd value in the 0.15 range while retaining enough room for styling cues.

Still, the Tesla Model S PLAID is currently the slipperiest car available, with a Cd value of 0.20. Got to give them credit for that. The Model 3 has a 0.23. Tesla in general has been at least 2 generations ahead of the nearest competitors on offering low drag cars. It's not rocket science.

Note the shape of the 2005 Mercedes Bionic, scoring a 0.19, would be perfect for an SUV or CUV if scaled up with more ground clearance and larger wheels.
I think the push for more EVs is going to push companies for more streamlined cars. Perhaps not as low as the numbers you would like to see but at least a step in the right direction. Tesla was first, others will follow suit. Just please, make the styling better than the Mercedes Bionic. My eyes bled looking at that monstrosity. The Tesla Model X, Model Y, or Lucid Gravity are much better looking.

The EV push
With the breakthrough of electric cars, a lot of focus is now on the range of these vehicles. Every kWh/km of energy consumption that can be saved, makes the car cheaper (fewer battery cells), lighter (less battery weight), and more efficient (less weight means lower rolling resistance). With range anxiety holding back a lot of potential buyers, aerodynamics again play a key role. The more streamlined the car, the bigger the range for the same battery.

It's not a coincidence that Tesla has a massive focus on aerodynamic efficiency - not only for their cars but also for the Tesla Semi truck. And they are not alone: newcomers like Lucid and Rivian also work hard to make surfaces as clean and streamlined as possible.

Conclusion
The aerodynamic efficiency of vehicles has come down dramatically, especially with the focus on the range for electric vehicles. Somehow, it feels like we have not reached the limits yet and we may be seeing even more streamlined designs in the future!

Some may look like normal cars with cleverly concealed aero tricks. Others may look downright futuristic and appeal to a more specific audience. But one thing is certain: aerodynamics will play a key role in the design of our future (electric) cars!
Electric Car Range Drives Race For Aerodynamic Efficiency

vtsnowedin wrote:I'm reasonable sure we don't want to know the CD of a conventional design Full sized pickup truck. Do you have any idea of the CD for the cyber truck?
about 0.39
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Sun 20 Nov 2022, 15:16:22

vtsnowedin wrote:I'm reasonable sure we don't want to know the CD of a conventional design Full sized pickup truck. Do you have any idea of the CD for the cyber truck?


I don't think the figure for the cybertruck has been published.

A typical modern pickup truck is around 0.40-.50. The open bed is very bad for drag, but trucks are generally poorly streamlined anyhow. Keeping the open bed, an upper 0.2X figure should be possible. Look at an old sports car called a Lotus Europa to get an idea of what that might look like. Scale it up in size, open up the rear for bed space, give it more ground clearance/bigger wheels, and that might be a good starting point for a more efficient truck that has a Cd in theupper 0.2X range with an open bed. For all I know, maybe the Cybertruck has achieved this figure as well, but I wasn't able to find it.

Cover the bed, and the Cd can go down a lot lower. Aerodynamacist Phil Knox made a bed cover, side skirts, and partial grille block for his 1996 Toyota T100 pickup, and dropped the drag coefficient to 0.25, increasing fuel economy from 25 mpg highway to 33 mpg highway. A retractable bed cover could work, so that when the bed of the truck isn't loaded down with cargo, fuel efficiency can get closer to that of a car than a truck, but when the bed is needed, pull the cover back and load the bed with cargo. When towing a heavy load on a trailer, a truck's aerodynamics won't make much of a difference though. But when the truck is being driven from A to B with one occupant and nothing is being caried or towed, there is a massive amount of room for improvement over what we have today.

Where there is massive room for improvement are commercial 18-wheelers that have enclosed trailers. Cd values in the upper 0.1X range are possible for those. Imagine a 70,000 lb fully loaded Kenworth approaching 20 mpg on the highway. Within realm of possibility with 50 year old tech. Aerodynamacist Luigi Colani noted as much nearly 35 years ago, but the industry argued that commercial fleet operators were concerned about styling and not operating costs(which was total BS). Colani's response was that "the ignorance is overwhelming". Planned obsolescence is the sacred cow that the auto industry is unwilling to give up. Tesla entering the market nudged things in the right direction at least, but there is still a lot of room for improvement even among their offerings, and the sort of drag cars have today really could have and should have been the standard 70+ years ago. Think of all the non-renewable resources that wouldn't have been consumed in the meantime.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Sun 20 Nov 2022, 15:56:21

kublikhan wrote:
The_Toecutter wrote:10 years ago I made the argument that Tesla should have been using the LiFePO4 chemistry all along.
I remember :) You were a proponent of LFP even back then arguing Tesla should use them.


The LFP weren't even half as good back then as they are today, but they were twice as good as the NiMH of the 1990s, and that was "good enough". The car has to be designed accordingly, and the Solectria Sunrise was.

I think the push for more EVs is going to push companies for more streamlined cars. Perhaps not as low as the numbers you would like to see but at least a step in the right direction. Tesla was first, others will follow suit. Just please, make the styling better than the Mercedes Bionic. My eyes bled looking at that monstrosity. The Tesla Model X, Model Y, or Lucid Gravity are much better looking.


If the goal is an affordable EV that someone can buy for $1X,XXX, drag has to go down to those levels. No mainstream manufacturer is interested in selling inexpensive cars in the US anymore, as the sale of one cannibalizes the sale of a more expensive, higher-margin vehicle. Design it to be repairable by shadetree mechanics by eschewing integrated touchscreens, not having CANBUS systems, and instead going barebones with rollup windows, inexpensive car parts store backup cameras, inexpensive digital gauges not integrated into some $X,XXX wiring harness, hand-adjustable mirrors, have only the most basic but significant features like heating/AC, and have everything controlled by actual buttons. No heated/vented seats, no TVs built into the back seats, no OnStar crap, no seat massagers, no heated steering wheel, no power anything, just a basic cheap car designed to function like a car instead of a living room, and then meet the bare minimum safety regulations. So if the consumer is going to buy a cheap penalty box and give up all the bloated features and have really slippery aero to get a 200+ mile real-world range on a sub 30 kWh battery pack, they should get something in return for that sacrifice. Adding performance in an EV is relatively cheap for a manufacturer, as the difference between a 150 horsepower drive system and a 500 horsepower drive system is currently in the $1,XXX range. I propose a slippery elongated but narrow sedan with ample legroom comparable to a 1980s S class Mercedes with a weight around 2,800 lbs, drag coefficient in the 0.15 range, frontal area around 20 sq ft, and give it Dodge Charger Hellcat straight-line performance and double wishbone independent front/rear suspension like a Miata, all standard in its lowest trim level. THAT would sell but then it would also cannibalize the sales of $1XX,XXX+ halo cars and $X,XXX,XXX+ exotics and make them irrelevant and make their sort of performance no longer "exclusive", so the industry will never do that. But if it was done, it would make cheap EVs both available and desirable, because there would be extra value for the money spent in some categories that cars that cost 3x as much could not provide, and it would be dirt cheap to offer it.

If it weren't for all of the existing government regulations, smaller manufacturers would have a chance to be disruptive and gain a foothold by taking advantage of a wide array unplucked low-hanging fruit, but because of existing regulations, mass producing a single model of car is now over $1 billion. $40,000 EVs are not going to catch on for Joe Sixpack. He doesn't have that kind of money, is already living paycheck to paycheck, and is lucky to have $500 in savings. If his car payment instead would be less than the cost of fueling/maintaining his existing used ICE car, he might consider it because it would actually free up more money. But no one is considering this. They can't think beyond the next quarterly report and continue to clutch their pearls, wanting everyone to overpay on bloated lardass vehicles destined to end up as landfill fodder in 20 years. And it's killing our planet.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 20 Nov 2022, 18:11:31

The_Toecutter wrote: $40,000 EVs are not going to catch on for Joe Sixpack. He doesn't have that kind of money, is already living paycheck to paycheck, and is lucky to have $500 in savings. If his car payment instead would be less than the cost of fueling/maintaining his existing used ICE car, he might consider it because it would actually free up more money. But no one is considering this.


Of course someone is. It is called the used EV market. My second EV cost $8s, with like 34k on it. It now has 53k on it. I've rotated the tires a couple times. Don't ever suppose that only folks with megabucks are required to buy these things, smart people who like saving mondo $$ buy them too!!
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Mon 21 Nov 2022, 21:42:50

Does that used EV have a warrantee? What condition is the battery pack in? How much is it going to cost to replace the charger or battery if either goes out unexpectedly? Will it cost more to fix than the car is worth?

While EVs tend to be reliable, there is no shortage of people that have gotten burned after purchasing lemons, for which it was not possible to tell they were lemons beforehand even in cases where the owner was meticulous about caring for it. A buyer can even end up owing payments on a used vehicle that no longer works and will take more money than the vehicle is worth to be operable again, and that is not a good situation to be when when one depends on that vehicle to get them back and forth to work while living paycheck to paycheck.

The fact that average working people are priced out of having a warrantee that comes with a new car says a lot about how things are today. Increasing precarity is a fact of life in the USA if you're not in the upper 20%.

I have a friend with a 1st generation Nissan Leaf. He got it dirt cheap, around $6k, and got 6 years use out of it. It now needs a new charger. The battery was still usable but otherwise in need of replacement since it was at the end of its life. Before the charger went out, it was only delivering about 30 miles of range. He bought it with an old battery that was initially delivering about 50-60 miles range and put tens of thousands of miles on it in that state. The car itself now has about 110,000 miles on it, and has been sitting for two years. That motor and inverter could easily last millions of miles, and the chassis many hundreds of thousands of miles. Nissan did not build it to be easily or inexpensively repaired. It will cost far more than the car is worth to fix.

These issues must be considered in the manufacture of EVs, and for the most part, currently they are not. And that's a shame, because EVs should be the most longest-lasting and most simple cars to repair ever sold given the simplicity of their powertrain. A million mile car is easy with this technology. It would be simple to make everything plug and play, but the auto manufacturers have decided to make everything locked off with proprietary software and dealership-only tools/parts, rendering otherwise useful parts and an otherwise still usable chassis into landfill fodder because the owner is not going to be able to justify the cost of multiple used cars to repair a used car.

What a waste. Especially given that there is no economically viable means to recycle some of the materials that go into these cars.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 22 Nov 2022, 13:37:22

The_Toecutter wrote:Does that used EV have a warrantee? What condition is the battery pack in? How much is it going to cost to replace the charger or battery if either goes out unexpectedly? Will it cost more to fix than the car is worth?


No. Excellent. Dunno. Might.

Here is the beauty of cheap buyin though Toe. Numbers 3 and 4 may never matter if a car company can build a car with a different drive train and do it well. 8 years for 1 and nearly 2 years for the other now, and the answer is...looking good.

Other EV, having paid far more for it a long time ago, did have a warrantee, but it is long gone. The SOC on the original battery is maybe 80%? Dunno how much to replace the charger or battery there either. And might cost more than car is worth. And it has 173K on it as it sits in the garage. Do you want to tell me how it has served me poorly over 8 years and 170k+ miles? Because I have to be honest, how well that one worked in all EV mode is what made it worth the risk on a 2nd used one. And both of them, with 200K+ running miles, are doing fine.

Do you assume otherwise, that engineers at Ford and Nissan can't build a solid battery/electric motor setup?


Toe_Cutter wrote:While EVs tend to be reliable, there is no shortage of people that have gotten burned after purchasing lemons, for which it was not possible to tell they were lemons beforehand even in cases where the owner was meticulous about caring for it. A buyer can even end up owing payments on a used vehicle that no longer works and will take more money than the vehicle is worth to be operable again, and that is not a good situation to be when when one depends on that vehicle to get them back and forth to work while living paycheck to paycheck.


See above. No lemons in sight. Cars are built better now in general, this isn't like when I grew up and mostly junk was coming out of Detroit.

Toe_Cutter wrote: Nissan did not build it to be easily or inexpensively repaired. It will cost far more than the car is worth to fix.


Could be. The question I ask when buying any vehicle, is what is my Capx/Mile driven. For example, new car, $40G's, driven 1 mile, is $40G's/mile Capx. Not really interested in OpX but anyone could include that if they wanted.

My best car isn't my new ones that went 100K miles at $25G buyin (4 miles/$1) or even my 8 year old original EV (172K miles/$27.5G buyin= 6.2 miles/$1) but the POS Chrysler I bought for a college car for the kids, that during the last weeks snowstorm was the only one I was running, blasting through snow like a Hummer and nearly impossible to stop in anything less than a foot of snow, 20K miles at $2.8G buyin = 7.1 miles/$1.

The Leaf sits at 2.5 miles/$1 right now. If it goes as long as your friends, it'll get to 8.1 miles/1$ and beat them all. So I would have nothing to complain about if it died just as your friends did, my money would have been frugally spent.

The way to do even better? My current experiment, purchased with salvage title, old school American iron, it already sits at 2.7 miles/$1 spent, and when testing of it ends in the spring at 20K miles, I have hopes it will already be at 6+ miles/$1 spent in a single year, with another 100K of life left in it.

In either case, neither of my EVs have been a disappointment.

Toe_Cutter wrote:What a waste. Especially given that there is no economically viable means to recycle some of the materials that go into these cars.


Well, looks like Leaf batteries can have life after life.
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Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 23 Nov 2022, 16:20:08

AdamB wrote:
The_Toecutter wrote: $40,000 EVs are not going to catch on for Joe Sixpack. He doesn't have that kind of money, is already living paycheck to paycheck, and is lucky to have $500 in savings. If his car payment instead would be less than the cost of fueling/maintaining his existing used ICE car, he might consider it because it would actually free up more money. But no one is considering this.


Of course someone is. It is called the used EV market. My second EV cost $8s, with like 34k on it. It now has 53k on it. I've rotated the tires a couple times. Don't ever suppose that only folks with megabucks are required to buy these things, smart people who like saving mondo $$ buy them too!!

There's also the fact that the AVERAGE new car transaction price in the US is now $48K+. Just a stunning figure IMO, as someone who paid $21K for what I considered by far the nicest car I've ever had in 2017, a new Camry SE, with the optional moonroof as the only equipment I wanted beyond the base car. (My first car from the 60's had no radio, no fan and 50 HP as I recall -- a lot of expectations is based on what you consider is "normal". Every new car I've owned, once every dozen years or so, seemed FANTSASTIC compared to what I was used to).

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/new-car-pr ... igh-again/

Couple that with the fact that outfits like BYD and Tesla are looking at making BEV's in high volume at more like $30K price, BEV's will be mighty competitive over time, even BEFORE the cost of fuel is considered, which gives charging a BIG advantage in many parts of the world, including the vast majority of the US.

And yes, many people will go to the used market for ICE, for BEV, and for hybrid, seeing what they can afford. Nothing new about that concept whether it's J6P or the upper middle class, etc. In 5 years a WIDE range of used BEV's at all sorts of price points, mileage, and condition, will be available for J6P.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 23 Nov 2022, 17:36:16

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And yes, many people will go to the used market for ICE, for BEV, and for hybrid, seeing what they can afford. Nothing new about that concept whether it's J6P or the upper middle class, etc. In 5 years a WIDE range of used BEV's at all sorts of price points, mileage, and condition, will be available for J6P.

The wonders of how market saturation curves function never ceases to amaze. I've got 2 EVS, and 2 POS's (and sure some others and motorcycles, but they aren't relevant). Each pair has about the same number of running miles, 200k+, the EVs are 2014-2015 vintage, the POS's 2000-2001 vintage.

These 4 are a test. Other folks quote the work of others and studies, but I've found that directly applicable personal experience has advantages that few are willing, or capable, of acquiring. Toe Cutter, HE can talk about EVs anytime and anywhere he wants, having built his own. Plant the EV poser can only pretend.

I plan on adding up the $$'s and miles and see what is what.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 02 Dec 2022, 23:34:28

Swiss look to ban use of electric cars over the winter to save energy

Switzerland is considering legislation that would ban people from driving electric vehicles except in urgent conditions over the winter because there simply might not be enough juice on the grid to recharge them.

December 2, 2022 10:00 AM

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2022/12/01 ... gy-n514785

By JAZZ SHAW

The European Union jumped on the electric vehicle craze well ahead of other parts of the world, particularly after the Paris climate accord. But in typical socialist fashion, they weren’t content with simply encouraging people to switch to EVs. Many European countries almost immediately started making plans to ban gas-powered cars and trucks and make EVs mandatory. Lots of Europeans wanted to get out ahead of the curve and began snapping the newer models up. But then came the start of the war in Ukraine, cutting energy supplies just as Europe was trying to wean itself off of fossil fuels. Now, in a rather embarrassing reversal, Switzerland is considering legislation that would ban people from driving electric vehicles except in urgent conditions over the winter because there simply might not be enough juice on the grid to recharge them. (From Der Spiegel. Original is in German but Google Translate can convert it for you.)

Switzerland could be the first country to impose driving bans on e-cars in an emergency to ensure energy security. Several media report this unanimously and refer to a draft regulation on restrictions and bans on the use of electrical energy. Specifically, the paper says: “The private use of electric cars is only permitted for absolutely necessary journeys (e.g. professional practice, shopping, visiting the doctor, attending religious events, attending court appointments).” A stricter speed limit is also planned highways.

Most of the electricity in Switzerland comes from hydropower. However, the country also imports electricity from Germany and France . If there are bottlenecks there, electricity could also become scarce in Switzerland. Energy security in Europe is considered endangered because of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine .

Switzerland has various “escalation levels” for its energy crisis. The ban on recharging electric vehicles would only go into effect when they reach level 3 according to the draft copy of the legislation that reporters obtained. Prior to that, the government would impose limits on how hot the water can be in washing machines (yes… seriously) and they would ban the use of leaf blowers and seat heaters in chair lifts. Bizarrely, they will also limit videos from streaming services to only be shown in SD resolution. (Huh?)

So much the same as we saw in California earlier this year, the government pushed everyone to switch over to electric vehicles to save the planet. But now they’re warning them that they won’t be able to recharge their vehicles except for “urgent travel requirements.” The crazy part of all of this is that the major energy corporations have been warning everyone about this for several years. The power grid doesn’t produce endless electricity by magic. You have to produce enough energy to power it or it fails. But nobody wanted to listen.

To put this story in context, consider the fact that in June of this year, the EU proposed a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2035

From 2035, newly registered cars and light goods vehicles will no longer be allowed to emit greenhouse gases. The decision was approved on June 29 by the 27-member group. The ban on internal combustion engines voted by the European Parliament – which the EU member States still have to approve – effectively marks the end of petrol- and diesel-powered vehicles, as well as hybrids, which are currently experiencing a boom. In future, only new electric or hydrogen-powered models will be able to be sold.

2035 is only a little more than a decade away. If this proposal passes, Europe won’t even allow hybrids to be sold. Only fully electric vehicles or hydrogen-powered ones. Good luck finding a hydrogen recharging station, by the way. And unless they get their energy grid back under control, there’s no guarantee you’ll be able to drive your car anywhere.

I was under the impression that Europe was a collection of first-world countries. Perhaps I was mistaken.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 03 Dec 2022, 11:04:28

Tanada wrote:
[b]Swiss look to ban use of electric cars over the winter to save energy



I wonder if the result would be any different for ICE machines if there was a lack of liquid fuels? In the US during the global 1979 peak oil, we rationed fuel, but didn't outright ban stuff.
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Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby mousepad » Sat 03 Dec 2022, 15:39:54

AdamB wrote:I wonder if the result would be any different for ICE machines if there was a lack of liquid fuels? In the US during the global 1979 peak oil, we rationed fuel, but didn't outright ban stuff.


There was a ban on driving on Sundays in Switzerland in the early 70s, due to lack of gas.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 03 Dec 2022, 16:35:51

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:I wonder if the result would be any different for ICE machines if there was a lack of liquid fuels? In the US during the global 1979 peak oil, we rationed fuel, but didn't outright ban stuff.


There was a ban on driving on Sundays in Switzerland in the early 70s, due to lack of gas.


I wonder how large the riots in the streets would be in the US if they tried that? And then us well informed and frugal EVers would still be out driving around...we'd probably be stoned by pedestrians stranded because of their poor choice in antique transportation fuel.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 06 Dec 2022, 18:42:33

AdamB wrote:
mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:I wonder if the result would be any different for ICE machines if there was a lack of liquid fuels? In the US during the global 1979 peak oil, we rationed fuel, but didn't outright ban stuff.


There was a ban on driving on Sundays in Switzerland in the early 70s, due to lack of gas.


I wonder how large the riots in the streets would be in the US if they tried that? And then us well informed and frugal EVers would still be out driving around...we'd probably be stoned by pedestrians stranded because of their poor choice in antique transportation fuel.

Clearly they wouldn't like it, but in a non-emergency situation, despite all the arm waving on this site about economic doom, an inconvenience is NOT a giant crash of the system, much less the end of the world.

The PRACTICALITY about that time in much of the US is that VERY FEW people were out and about if they didn't need to be, given the cost and scarcity of gasoline. I clearly remember seeing news video of normally super-crowded major interchanges in busy north-east corridors that were all but EMPTY of traffic in broad daylight on weekends, for example.

Now, would there be LOTS of screeching and attempts to make all the political hay the usual suspects (from both sides) could? Of COURSE.

Meanwhile in the real first world, the fleet will get MUCH more efficient, bun FAR less fossil fuel over time (for ground transport), even as green energy continues to ramp up.

Which of course, makes the consequences of any ICE travel bans less and less consequential as time passes.

But I drive 3000 miles or less a year and have a reasonably efficient ICE sedan with like 11,000 miles on it. Economically, as long as that's reliable, I'm better off being patient and letting BEV's, their batteries, the charging network, and the cost, reliability, and technology of BEV's continue to improve, vs. jumping up and getting a BEV right now to show I'm "doing something". (Not flying at all, not traveling much, not having kids, eating and consuming throughtfully, heating and cooling thoughtfully, etc. already has my carbon footprint pretty reasonable for an American. It's NOT like personal transport is the only, or even the majority of the issue).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 06 Dec 2022, 20:57:01

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:I wonder how large the riots in the streets would be in the US if they tried that? And then us well informed and frugal EVers would still be out driving around...we'd probably be stoned by pedestrians stranded because of their poor choice in antique transportation fuel.

Clearly they wouldn't like it, but in a non-emergency situation, despite all the arm waving on this site about economic doom, an inconvenience is NOT a giant crash of the system, much less the end of the world.


Interestingly, those so quick to claim DOOM and COLLAPSE are the least likely to offer up their own definition of it.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:But I drive 3000 miles or less a year and have a reasonably efficient ICE sedan with like 11,000 miles on it.


I drove 3000 miles in 4 days in October, ICE power. But then its pretty much around town and all EV. My efficient ICE once had 11,000 miles on it. The day I bought it. After that though...well...last I looked it requires 290k for it to be the highest mileage car of its brand and type on cars.com, so that's what I'm shooting for before I brag.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 07 Dec 2022, 14:45:53

AdamB wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:I wonder how large the riots in the streets would be in the US if they tried that? And then us well informed and frugal EVers would still be out driving around...we'd probably be stoned by pedestrians stranded because of their poor choice in antique transportation fuel.

Clearly they wouldn't like it, but in a non-emergency situation, despite all the arm waving on this site about economic doom, an inconvenience is NOT a giant crash of the system, much less the end of the world.


Interestingly, those so quick to claim DOOM and COLLAPSE are the least likely to offer up their own definition of it.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:But I drive 3000 miles or less a year and have a reasonably efficient ICE sedan with like 11,000 miles on it.


I drove 3000 miles in 4 days in October, ICE power. But then its pretty much around town and all EV. My efficient ICE once had 11,000 miles on it. The day I bought it. After that though...well...last I looked it requires 290k for it to be the highest mileage car of its brand and type on cars.com, so that's what I'm shooting for before I brag.

Each to their own. Driving to Detroit (from central KY) and back one year for a family reunion is as far as I've gone in a week by car, so call it 750 miles. LOL I think a miserable car trip to Tampa and back as a kid of about 10 (from central KY) convinced me long car trips are things I'd rather not take. Now, if we really get to where the car will safely do ALL the driving and I can relax and enjoy the view in a very comfortable car, I might reconsider, but I'm skeptical about that happening all that soon.

It will be nice when the range on BEV's (and the charging) gets to the point that for 99% of people, range anxiety is no longer even on the radar. Tesla just took a big step toward that with the semi tractor truck (re Dec. 1 delivery event) -- now they need to build lots of them and build out the megawatt charging network to truck stops, etc. I don't trust Musk timelines at all, but hopefully this time they will be ramped up in 2024 to 50,000 a year or so, as planned.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Fri 30 Dec 2022, 21:37:32

AdamB wrote:
No. Excellent. Dunno. Might.

Here is the beauty of cheap buyin though Toe. Numbers 3 and 4 may never matter if a car company can build a car with a different drive train and do it well. 8 years for 1 and nearly 2 years for the other now, and the answer is...looking good.


Those questions were rhetorical. Someone who just scrounged up a few grand to buy a used car or is having to take a loan out on a used car to get to work is most likely going to have questions along those lines, because if something goes wrong, they can't get to work, and they've wasted their money, as well as placed themselves into a major financial bind that they may not be able to recover from.

I love EVs. I've argued for decades that they are a viable replacement to ICE. But for someone who absolutely needs a car, even for short trips, and at an affordable cost, purchasing a used Nissan Leaf can be rolling the dice with worse odds than the nearest ICE powered competition, even if the Leaf would be significantly cheaper in the long term or may in fact be a more reliable car on the whole. Most beater ICE cars are repairable with readily-available parts sourced at your local auto store, whereas an EV with proprietary systems/code/tools/batteries is not. The ability to buy a new car with a warrantee, where if something goes wrong, it is covered, is something that has been lost to the working class as prices have risen and real wages have fallen and this is a massive component regarding motoring being an affordable transportation option to the masses that is no longer present. If that warrantee doesn't exist because the vehicle is used, the vehicle MUST be repairable by your local shadetree mechanic, or it is likely to become landfill fodder when something eventually fails.

Do you assume otherwise, that engineers at Ford and Nissan can't build a solid battery/electric motor setup?


I know for a fact that they can. Sometimes, the company chooses not to, deliberately.



That's all fine and good, but what if J6P with $500 in the bank needs to get to work and doesn't have the $6,000 to replace the battery pack on his broken down Leaf, or enough money to get a different used car? If it was only one bad module causing his woes, then the ability to have a shadetree mechanic swap the bad module out for a few hundred dollars to keep the car rolling with close-to-new range would be a Godsend, but Nissan has designed the car in such a way where that is not currently a viable proposition.

Until this changes, there will be plenty of hesitancy among the working class to adopt EVs, and with valid reason. It's not an issue inherent to the technology, so much as it is inherent to the way cars are designed and built to be disposable from the factory. If there is any technology that will enable the production of a forever-car, it is EVs, and the fact that the used market is saturated with dirt cheap broken Leafs and the fact that those Leafs still in working condition fail to retain their value well as a result, is a testament to poor decisions made on Nissan's part.

I predict that if there ever comes a time that close to 100% of production EVs have super-reliable batteries that routinely last decades without failure, and if they do fail, are generally repairable for much less than the car is worth, it is likely that used EVs will retain their value so well that even with 100,000+ on the odometer, they will cost almost as much as new ones, supplanting the need to produce as many new cars as are currently produced.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Fri 30 Dec 2022, 23:58:08

The_Toecutter wrote:I love EVs. I've argued for decades that they are a viable replacement to ICE. But for someone who absolutely needs a car, even for short trips, and at an affordable cost, purchasing a used Nissan Leaf can be rolling the dice with worse odds than the nearest ICE powered competition, even if the Leaf would be significantly cheaper in the long term or may in fact be a more reliable car on the whole. Most beater ICE cars are repairable with readily-available parts sourced at your local auto store, whereas an EV with proprietary systems/code/tools/batteries is not. The ability to buy a new car with a warrantee, where if something goes wrong, it is covered, is something that has been lost to the working class as prices have risen and real wages have fallen and this is a massive component regarding motoring being an affordable transportation option to the masses that is no longer present. If that warrantee doesn't exist because the vehicle is used, the vehicle MUST be repairable by your local shadetree mechanic, or it is likely to become landfill fodder when something eventually fails.


I enjoyed the Roadworthy Rescues show where in each episode the host would get a vehicle that had been abandoned for 40-50 years running again. Despite the age of these vehicles he did not have any trouble sourcing replacement parts such as carburetors, ignition coils, distributors and so on. I can see that electric vehicles are engineered in a way that requires maintenance to be done only by factory trained technicians and with less potential for after market parts to be available. However, a similar increase in complexity of new ICE vehicles also makes maintenance a challenge. However, I would agree that a used ICE vehicle would be a better choice for someone who is not flush with cash.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 31 Dec 2022, 00:45:09

The_Toecutter wrote:Someone who just scrounged up a few grand to buy a used car or is having to take a loan out on a used car to get to work is most likely going to have questions along those lines, because if something goes wrong, they can't get to work, and they've wasted their money, as well as placed themselves into a major financial bind that they may not be able to recover from.


Well, I can fill in for that person as well. I bought a college kid car that was 15 years old, for $2800, and 6 months ago I acquired a 22 year old, 118k mile one grandma owner special.

Both cars were subjected to a $1500 deferred maintenance makeover by my favorite mechanic. One has given me good service (21k miles) with $1500 in unscheduled mechanical issues in 6 years, the other has given me 9k miles of service with $1100 in unscheduled mechanical issues in 7 months.

They both work (one has been out in the last 2 blizzards regular as clockwork) and the other I reserve for 1000 mile days at 80 mph across Kansas as just one example.

I haven't wasted my money, and am surprised you think folks aren't capable of buying wisely, even when it comes to ICE powered antiques that are both now 20+ years old.

Are you projecting onto others because you've purchased some junk old autos and they ate your lunch?

The ToeCutter wrote:I love EVs. I've argued for decades that they are a viable replacement to ICE. But for someone who absolutely needs a car, even for short trips, and at an affordable cost, purchasing a used Nissan Leaf can be rolling the dice with worse odds than the nearest ICE powered competition, even if the Leaf would be significantly cheaper in the long term or may in fact be a more reliable car on the whole. Most beater ICE cars are repairable with readily-available parts sourced at your local auto store, whereas an EV with proprietary systems/code/tools/batteries is not.


I've got both. Plus the other EV with 172k miles on it. I'm convinced that all 4 machines are doing quite well, both in the EV experiment and old antique ICE machines. I paid more for the Leaf than the two ICE antiques combined. With nothing but 4 tire rotations of maintenance in 20k. It is doing quite well in the not self destructing because Nissan doesn't know how to build EVs department.

The ToeCutter wrote:
Do you assume otherwise, that engineers at Ford and Nissan can't build a solid battery/electric motor setup?

I know for a fact that they can. Sometimes, the company chooses not to, deliberately.


Well, good thing they don't appear to have sold me any of those then?

The Toecutter wrote:That's all fine and good, but what if J6P with $500 in the bank needs to get to work and doesn't have the $6,000 to replace the battery pack on his broken down Leaf, or enough money to get a different used car?


Then it is a good thing that batteries aren't self destructing very often? The Volt has a reputation for going like 200k miles because it has excellent thermal control, the Leaf is the main car that seems to get a bad wrap for thermal issues, being air cooled and all. I would recommend buying them and not worrying about the battery in more temperate enviroments, fast charging on the tarmac in Phoenix in 115F heat seems to be where the Leaf developed its bad reputation. I'm hoping that my superior than average thermal management is key to its battery not having degraded in the least in 20k miles, and it is 7 years old now.

The Toecutter wrote:I predict that if there ever comes a time that close to 100% of production EVs have super-reliable batteries that routinely last decades without failure, and if they do fail, are generally repairable for much less than the car is worth, it is likely that used EVs will retain their value so well that even with 100,000+ on the odometer, they will cost almost as much as new ones, supplanting the need to produce as many new cars as are currently produced.


Well, Elon is probably hoping for the same thing. I'll be satisfied if my EVs just keep running, day in and day out, while not requiring the kind of "fix it" costs that I expect of my two old ICE antiques.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 31 Dec 2022, 00:49:57

yellowcanoe wrote: However, I would agree that a used ICE vehicle would be a better choice for someone who is not flush with cash.


Could be. Although having had my ICE dinosaurs in a modern repair shop, there aren't many cheap repairs nowadays, for what I might consider "little" things. Window regulators, an intake manifold, a new oil pan, shifter cables when they no longer make them for the manual ($800...ouch!), a basic transmission service? I paid $400 to do it on my daughters Mustang, apparently the pan needs dropped because its old fashioned, and you need to get at the filter inside. None of it is cheap.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 31 Jan 2023, 18:08:01

Fuel Costs of Electric Vehicles Overtake Gas-Powered Cars:

Owners of EV's have been deluding themselves for years, pretending that it was free to run their little battery powered cars.

The cost to fuel electric vehicles (EV) in the United States is higher than the cost to fuel gas-powered cars for the first time in 18 months, a consulting company said.

“In Q4 2022, typical mid-priced ICE [Internal Combustion Engine] car drivers paid about $11.29 to fuel their vehicles for 100 miles of driving. That cost was around $0.31 cheaper than the amount paid by mid-priced EV drivers charging mostly at home, and over $3 less than the cost borne by comparable EV drivers charging commercially,” Anderson Economic Group (AEG) said in an analysis...


Crashed Low-Mileage Teslas Often Too Expensive to Fix

Insurance carriers are sending low-mileage Tesla Model Ys to salvage auctions because they’re too expensive to repair. Of more than 120 Model Ys that were totaled after collisions and listed at auction in December and early January, the vast majority had fewer than 10,000 miles on the odometer,

EV's are turning out to be a lose lose proposition for the Beta testers. Perhaps things will change in the decades to come, in the decades to come...

https://www.theepochtimes.com/fuel-cost ... =ZeroHedge
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