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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby careinke » Mon 19 Dec 2022, 17:36:56

AdamB wrote:
careinke wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:I noticed my cash account at Fidelity is now paying 3.5% so I don't need to look for a bond fund.


Well with the latest government monthly inflation numbers of 7.1% you are only losing 3.6% in purchasing power. Do you think if the inflation rate goes down to 3%, Fidelity will keep paying 3.5%? That would be cool. :)


Well, losing 3% over the course of a year in VT's investments sure sounds better than what happened to the folks who held bitcoin over the last year. Now THERE is an OUCH.


I know my cost bases for BTC jumped all the way from $400/BTC to $600/BTC. 8O

I may sell everything I bought this year, while Dollar Cost Averaging, and immediately buy it back to record a loss for government tax purposes. Looks like I can do the same with ETH. :-D

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 19 Dec 2022, 18:43:25

careinke wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:I noticed my cash account at Fidelity is now paying 3.5% so I don't need to look for a bond fund.


Well with the latest government monthly inflation numbers of 7.1% you are only losing 3.6% in purchasing power. Do you think if the inflation rate goes down to 3%, Fidelity will keep paying 3.5%? That would be cool. :)

Not that I have any right to criticize, sitting here with a loss of 5% of purchasing power from my "Huge" increases in Medicare and Military Retirement this year. Not to mention my Raytheon Retirement, which never increases. :oops:

Peace

Yes you lose purchasing power when inflation is higher then your rate of return but the bond funds have that same rate of return so do no better. Now if the stock market losses say twenty percent this year having your money in a bond fund or cash account that only loses four percent inflation adjusted makes you the winner as he who loses the least is the winner.
I think we are headed into a very tough year and finding anything that turns a profit for you will be as scarce as hen's teeth.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 20 Dec 2022, 23:42:21

vtsnowedin wrote: I think we are headed into a very tough year and finding anything that turns a profit for you will be as scarce as hen's teeth.


That's what I was thinking but then I heard several predictions by one of the founders of the Motley Fool group.

Image

He made several points:

(1) Its quite unusual to have two down years in a row in the stock market so most likely next year will be positive for the stock market

(2) Inflation appears to have peaked in the US

(3) Interest rate increases have started to slow and will probably end soon

(4) A recession in 2023 may not be severe

(5) When the recession starts its likely the FED will CUT interest rates

(6) Once the FED starts to cut interest rates, the stock market will likely go UP

These facts led the Motley Fool guy to call for gains for the stock market in 2023.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 21 Dec 2022, 09:04:15

Well that is a pretty safe prediction given the markets record over the last century. Way more up years then down and an average nine percent gain per year including the down years.
But I don't share that prediction for this year, reason being the coming recession is being caused by the Biden policies and with the Democrats in charge of the Senate none of those policies will get reversed before 2024.
We can look to the Carter presidency to see a likely result. In his four years the market only advanced 1.25% and was followed by Reagan's eight year 135% gain or consider Trump's four year gain of 43%.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 21 Dec 2022, 10:15:20

vtsnowedin wrote: We can look to the Carter presidency to see a likely result. In his four years the market only advanced 1.25% and was followed by Reagan's eight year 135% gain or consider Trump's four year gain of 43%.


Sure, but Trump compared to the prior 2 Democan adminstrations sucked. He did better than any Republicrat administration since Coolidge with an annualized gain of 11.8%, but sucked donkey dong compared to Clintons 15.9% and Obama's 12.1%. Link

So Sleepy Joe has plenty of time to not be Carter, and as dropping inflation, lower deficits than the Trump administration, and folks with actual experience worrying about the American people instead of pitching sedition to Oath Keepers, Proud Boys and being Putin's pushover at every opportunity, well, Sleepy Joe might still have 6 years to join the recent normal Democan crowd, rather than being compared to Trump who only managed to screw up Obama's recovery and hand us The Greatest Recession Since The Great Depression. :)

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What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 22 Dec 2022, 18:54:26

Biden's economic record is very poor so far, with the worst inflation in decades getting started in Biden's first year, the stock market collapsing in his second year, and a recession likely to occur in Biden's third year.

But there's still hope Biden will get his economic act together and turn things around in his fourth year in office.

After all, even someone as old and mentally challenged as Joe Biden can't screw up the economy all four years he is in office.......or can he?????

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How Joe Biden can stop his falls on the stairs of Air Force One........

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Thu 22 Dec 2022, 19:16:04

Plantagenet wrote:Biden's economic record is very poor so far, with the worst inflation in decades getting started in Biden's first year, the stock market collapsing in his second year, and a recession likely to occur in Biden's third year.


What an amazing coincidence - we have the same situation here in Canada and Joe Biden isn't even our Prime Minister!
"new housing construction" is spelled h-a-b-i-t-a-t d-e-s-t-r-u-c-t-i-o-n.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby careinke » Thu 22 Dec 2022, 20:28:38

yellowcanoe wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Biden's economic record is very poor so far, with the worst inflation in decades getting started in Biden's first year, the stock market collapsing in his second year, and a recession likely to occur in Biden's third year.


What an amazing coincidence - we have the same situation here in Canada and Joe Biden isn't even our Prime Minister!


Actually, I prefer Brandon over your Black Faced fascist. But hey we are just arguing over the smell of shit, it's all bad.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 26 Jan 2023, 13:14:10

Apparently the stock market crash has been postponed for a while. My year to date figures are up 6.62% and preceding twelve months is up 22.76% but that does include some cash I added to the account during the year. Exxon and Lockheed-Martin are my best bets lately.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 26 Jan 2023, 13:38:47

careinke wrote:Actually, I prefer Brandon over your Black Faced fascist. But hey we are just arguing over the smell of shit, it's all bad.

Peace


Really? And how have the actions of the Canadian Prime Minister affected you, or caused you to have such a poor opinion of him? As the person in charge of the nearest American Protectorate, he hasn't done anything to bother me much. He sends us their oil, natural gas and electricity as required, keeps his folks from realizing they are an American Protectorate, keeps them unarmed and unable to fend off any invasion from their south should they get uppity, etc etc.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 26 Jan 2023, 13:43:08

vtsnowedin wrote:Apparently the stock market crash has been postponed for a while.


Don't know what to say except...GO BRANDON!

Was sitting in on some high end economic conversations at work this morning, looks like a fair chance of recession in 2023. Can you believe that the administration that rescued us from The Worst Recession Since The Great Depression is taking this long to make a policy mistake resulting in a recession? Maybe after saving the country from the last one, he just can't bring himself to cause a wee little one?

S&P back above 4000. Brandon couldn't even provide a decent buy on the opportunity for me yet.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Peak_Yeast » Fri 27 Jan 2023, 14:12:33

vtsnowedin wrote:Apparently the stock market crash has been postponed for a while. My year to date figures are up 6.62% and preceding twelve months is up 22.76% but that does include some cash I added to the account during the year. Exxon and Lockheed-Martin are my best bets lately.


Which corresponds to a net decline in real purchasing power of about 50% unless you eat a lot of televisions - at least here in Europe. The official inflation of 10-12% is completely disconnected from ordinary peoples reality. 8O
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 27 Jan 2023, 14:28:07

Peak_Yeast wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Apparently the stock market crash has been postponed for a while. My year to date figures are up 6.62% and preceding twelve months is up 22.76% but that does include some cash I added to the account during the year. Exxon and Lockheed-Martin are my best bets lately.


Which corresponds to a net decline in real purchasing power of about 50% unless you eat a lot of televisions - at least here in Europe. The official inflation of 10-12% is completely disconnected from ordinary peoples reality. 8O

I expect stock prices and the whole market to adjust for inflation over time. It always has before and this months increase is probably been driven by that factor along with gold going from 1800 to 1950.
All expenses considered I see the purchasing power of my income streams declining about 12% not 50%. Groceries are up about 25% gas and propane close to 50%. property taxes up 10% Monthly bills including car payment and insurance , phones, satellite TV are either fixed (car )or up slightly (electricity).
To balance that my SS check went up 8.7%.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 27 Jan 2023, 15:50:36

Talking with a friend about inflation the other day we concluded that for the 10 years or so 2008~2020 there was hardly any. Not any to speak of that is. Petrol prices hardly moved, food the same, restaurant prices were sticky. There was some creep with things like power bills and vehicle regos etc but nothing alarming. Hell even new motorcycles maintained a price cap over that decade, though now they have leaped up substantially.

Over that same period the housing market and the stock market here went sideways and there was no interest rates worthy of chasing. Most other markets around the world were the same if you look at the charts. It was only in the US where markets ballooned out, driven by capital inflows from all around the globe, even Australian private pensions were heavy investors over there. These flat markets here and elsewhere caused a lot of trouble to those who were highly in debt, but if you were in business for yourself and could raise your fees, and not in debt, it was a golden opportunity to salt money away.

Now everyone is squealing about inflation as though it's a new phenomenon. But we had it big-time in the 2000's as well so a 10 year hiatus should have prepared people. Especially people here who are aware that with conventional oil peaking, and being subsidized with expensive alternatives, it was a foregone conclusion that prices would rise.

Why the masses would expect the world's energy intensive nations to transition off fossil fuels without precipitous drops in living standards just goes to show deluded they have become. To believe $80k EV's and Green energy solutions would somehow not result in big inflation is like a child crying when the ice cream tub is empty.

Thrift. That's the secret. Living well within your means. That and avoiding third parties when it comes to your wealth preservation.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby careinke » Fri 27 Jan 2023, 15:56:49

vtsnowedin wrote:Apparently the stock market crash has been postponed for a while. My year to date figures are up 6.62% and preceding twelve months is up 22.76% but that does include some cash I added to the account during the year. Exxon and Lockheed-Martin are my best bets lately.

Well year to date I'm up 41.07%. Last year I lost around 37%, primarily because I DCA and decided to make a big wash sale in BTC and ETH, so I can offset my gains for this year and next.
Unlike most, I have six other passive income streams and rarely sell my crypto. I'm into crypto for other reasons...

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 27 Jan 2023, 16:20:16

theluckycountry wrote:Thrift. That's the secret. Living well within your means. That and avoiding third parties when it comes to your wealth preservation.


Indeed. And avoid PMs because you just get hammered in terms of value compared to market gains.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby careinke » Sat 28 Jan 2023, 04:52:21

AdamB wrote:
careinke wrote:Actually, I prefer Brandon over your Black Faced fascist. But hey we are just arguing over the smell of shit, it's all bad.

Peace


Really? And how have the actions of the Canadian Prime Minister affected you,
or caused you to have such a poor opinion of him?
As the person in charge of the nearest American Protectorate, he hasn't done anything to bother me much. He sends us their oil, natural gas and electricity as required, keeps his folks from realizing they are an American Protectorate, keeps them unarmed and unable to fend off any invasion from their south should they get uppity, etc etc.


Really?

Yes.

And how have the actions of the Canadian Prime Minister affected you, or...


Well it prevented me from visiting some close elderly friends in Alberta. It also hurt our states economy because Canadians could not easily visit and Play in our Casino's, buy tribal cigarettes, or use our medical facilities reducing the amount of money flowing into the state.

or... caused you to have such a poor opinion of him?


How do I hate True Douche? Let me count the ways, (NOT in order):
He is a Racist,
He is a Fascist,
He used violence on the nationwide peaceful "Trucker Protest,"
He is a Liar, almost as bad as Brandon (but not due to senility),
He stole money and ruined the lives of many, using willing bankers,
He is a member of the WEF,
He is a coward,
He has no integrity, therefor no worth.

Frankly the a$$hole makes me want to vomit every time I see him speak. :x

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 28 Jan 2023, 05:38:31

careinke wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Apparently the stock market crash has been postponed for a while. My year to date figures are up 6.62% and preceding twelve months is up 22.76% but that does include some cash I added to the account during the year. Exxon and Lockheed-Martin are my best bets lately.

Well year to date I'm up 41.07%. Last year I lost around 37%, primarily because I DCA and decided to make a big wash sale in BTC and ETH, so I can offset my gains for this year and next.
Unlike most, I have six other passive income streams and rarely sell my crypto. I'm into crypto for other reasons...

Peace

While my account balance was down a lot last year I did not realize any loss as I did not sell any stocks. What Mr. market thinks my stocks are worth on any given day is an entirely different thing from what I think they are worth today or will be five years from now.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 28 Jan 2023, 10:10:47

Most of my portfolio is in the green. I took advantage of whatever opportunity I could to buy low. I added to several positions. Among those are my positions in LTHM and LAC. Those are lithium plays. I offer them as examples, but I am not just into lithium. Electrical infrastructure is way up, and solar is doing interesting things. Industrial automation is coming along nicely.

I don't believe in being in default panic mode. In fact, it's not really in my personality to panic. I like to be rational in the face of difficulty rather than so concerned that I can't make choices. What that means is you do need a sort of bias. My bias is, of course, toward my hypothesis that the electrified and AI driven world of the future will succeed. I don't abandon that at the first sign it might be wrong, when prices go down.

Because I believe that, I don't think it is like stealing to buy low. I don't think that it is like taking candy from babies. I don't think it because I outline my reasons, my risk position, and I stick with it.

I feel a person has to kind of say that because these conspiracy minded people are so crazy. You have to remember why people are anti-Semitic most of the time. It's because Jewish families succeed across time. They do that because they teach their children a few things about how to succeed. One of those things is a longer term outlook on life that includes activities like saving. People who can't think past what they are gonna blow their next check on tend to get jealous of those people. People who can't bring their appetites into check, lowering the expense incurred in their budgets to those things, tend to get jealous of those people. Anybody who can't save and needs a scapegoat to accept emotionally where they find themselves, tends to get jealous of those people.

I am reminding you of the risk I am taking by being optimistic while so many other people are so afraid. It should compel you to look at yourself, if you didn't save, or saved badly. It is possible to save too much toward fear. It can be worse than taking simple interest. There isn't always a buyer of those things when you want to dump those fear based assets.

Look, it's not like I don't kowtow towards fear within my portfolio. I do own some positions mainly for the dividend income they will give me rather than the gains they might make. The point is, balancing that doesn't take hand waving. It's more discrete. It doesn't need fanfare to happen. If you need fanfare, you are probably being taken. You are probably relying on silver to go to $50, while the person who is filling you full of such ideas, that it is even probable, just wants you to take their position off of their hands.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 28 Jan 2023, 13:51:21

:)
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
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