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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 20 Nov 2022, 15:06:59

The_Toecutter wrote:10 years ago I made the argument that Tesla should have been using the LiFePO4 chemistry all along.
I remember :) You were a proponent of LFP even back then arguing Tesla should use them.

The_Toecutter wrote:They could have compensated the lower energy density by getting drag even lower. "Aerodynamics of Road Vehicles" by Wolf-Heinrich Hucho concluded nearly 40 years ago that it is possible for a practical road-going sedan to have a Cd value in the 0.15 range while retaining enough room for styling cues.

Still, the Tesla Model S PLAID is currently the slipperiest car available, with a Cd value of 0.20. Got to give them credit for that. The Model 3 has a 0.23. Tesla in general has been at least 2 generations ahead of the nearest competitors on offering low drag cars. It's not rocket science.

Note the shape of the 2005 Mercedes Bionic, scoring a 0.19, would be perfect for an SUV or CUV if scaled up with more ground clearance and larger wheels.
I think the push for more EVs is going to push companies for more streamlined cars. Perhaps not as low as the numbers you would like to see but at least a step in the right direction. Tesla was first, others will follow suit. Just please, make the styling better than the Mercedes Bionic. My eyes bled looking at that monstrosity. The Tesla Model X, Model Y, or Lucid Gravity are much better looking.

The EV push
With the breakthrough of electric cars, a lot of focus is now on the range of these vehicles. Every kWh/km of energy consumption that can be saved, makes the car cheaper (fewer battery cells), lighter (less battery weight), and more efficient (less weight means lower rolling resistance). With range anxiety holding back a lot of potential buyers, aerodynamics again play a key role. The more streamlined the car, the bigger the range for the same battery.

It's not a coincidence that Tesla has a massive focus on aerodynamic efficiency - not only for their cars but also for the Tesla Semi truck. And they are not alone: newcomers like Lucid and Rivian also work hard to make surfaces as clean and streamlined as possible.

Conclusion
The aerodynamic efficiency of vehicles has come down dramatically, especially with the focus on the range for electric vehicles. Somehow, it feels like we have not reached the limits yet and we may be seeing even more streamlined designs in the future!

Some may look like normal cars with cleverly concealed aero tricks. Others may look downright futuristic and appeal to a more specific audience. But one thing is certain: aerodynamics will play a key role in the design of our future (electric) cars!
Electric Car Range Drives Race For Aerodynamic Efficiency

vtsnowedin wrote:I'm reasonable sure we don't want to know the CD of a conventional design Full sized pickup truck. Do you have any idea of the CD for the cyber truck?
about 0.39
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Sun 20 Nov 2022, 15:16:22

vtsnowedin wrote:I'm reasonable sure we don't want to know the CD of a conventional design Full sized pickup truck. Do you have any idea of the CD for the cyber truck?


I don't think the figure for the cybertruck has been published.

A typical modern pickup truck is around 0.40-.50. The open bed is very bad for drag, but trucks are generally poorly streamlined anyhow. Keeping the open bed, an upper 0.2X figure should be possible. Look at an old sports car called a Lotus Europa to get an idea of what that might look like. Scale it up in size, open up the rear for bed space, give it more ground clearance/bigger wheels, and that might be a good starting point for a more efficient truck that has a Cd in theupper 0.2X range with an open bed. For all I know, maybe the Cybertruck has achieved this figure as well, but I wasn't able to find it.

Cover the bed, and the Cd can go down a lot lower. Aerodynamacist Phil Knox made a bed cover, side skirts, and partial grille block for his 1996 Toyota T100 pickup, and dropped the drag coefficient to 0.25, increasing fuel economy from 25 mpg highway to 33 mpg highway. A retractable bed cover could work, so that when the bed of the truck isn't loaded down with cargo, fuel efficiency can get closer to that of a car than a truck, but when the bed is needed, pull the cover back and load the bed with cargo. When towing a heavy load on a trailer, a truck's aerodynamics won't make much of a difference though. But when the truck is being driven from A to B with one occupant and nothing is being caried or towed, there is a massive amount of room for improvement over what we have today.

Where there is massive room for improvement are commercial 18-wheelers that have enclosed trailers. Cd values in the upper 0.1X range are possible for those. Imagine a 70,000 lb fully loaded Kenworth approaching 20 mpg on the highway. Within realm of possibility with 50 year old tech. Aerodynamacist Luigi Colani noted as much nearly 35 years ago, but the industry argued that commercial fleet operators were concerned about styling and not operating costs(which was total BS). Colani's response was that "the ignorance is overwhelming". Planned obsolescence is the sacred cow that the auto industry is unwilling to give up. Tesla entering the market nudged things in the right direction at least, but there is still a lot of room for improvement even among their offerings, and the sort of drag cars have today really could have and should have been the standard 70+ years ago. Think of all the non-renewable resources that wouldn't have been consumed in the meantime.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Sun 20 Nov 2022, 15:56:21

kublikhan wrote:
The_Toecutter wrote:10 years ago I made the argument that Tesla should have been using the LiFePO4 chemistry all along.
I remember :) You were a proponent of LFP even back then arguing Tesla should use them.


The LFP weren't even half as good back then as they are today, but they were twice as good as the NiMH of the 1990s, and that was "good enough". The car has to be designed accordingly, and the Solectria Sunrise was.

I think the push for more EVs is going to push companies for more streamlined cars. Perhaps not as low as the numbers you would like to see but at least a step in the right direction. Tesla was first, others will follow suit. Just please, make the styling better than the Mercedes Bionic. My eyes bled looking at that monstrosity. The Tesla Model X, Model Y, or Lucid Gravity are much better looking.


If the goal is an affordable EV that someone can buy for $1X,XXX, drag has to go down to those levels. No mainstream manufacturer is interested in selling inexpensive cars in the US anymore, as the sale of one cannibalizes the sale of a more expensive, higher-margin vehicle. Design it to be repairable by shadetree mechanics by eschewing integrated touchscreens, not having CANBUS systems, and instead going barebones with rollup windows, inexpensive car parts store backup cameras, inexpensive digital gauges not integrated into some $X,XXX wiring harness, hand-adjustable mirrors, have only the most basic but significant features like heating/AC, and have everything controlled by actual buttons. No heated/vented seats, no TVs built into the back seats, no OnStar crap, no seat massagers, no heated steering wheel, no power anything, just a basic cheap car designed to function like a car instead of a living room, and then meet the bare minimum safety regulations. So if the consumer is going to buy a cheap penalty box and give up all the bloated features and have really slippery aero to get a 200+ mile real-world range on a sub 30 kWh battery pack, they should get something in return for that sacrifice. Adding performance in an EV is relatively cheap for a manufacturer, as the difference between a 150 horsepower drive system and a 500 horsepower drive system is currently in the $1,XXX range. I propose a slippery elongated but narrow sedan with ample legroom comparable to a 1980s S class Mercedes with a weight around 2,800 lbs, drag coefficient in the 0.15 range, frontal area around 20 sq ft, and give it Dodge Charger Hellcat straight-line performance and double wishbone independent front/rear suspension like a Miata, all standard in its lowest trim level. THAT would sell but then it would also cannibalize the sales of $1XX,XXX+ halo cars and $X,XXX,XXX+ exotics and make them irrelevant and make their sort of performance no longer "exclusive", so the industry will never do that. But if it was done, it would make cheap EVs both available and desirable, because there would be extra value for the money spent in some categories that cars that cost 3x as much could not provide, and it would be dirt cheap to offer it.

If it weren't for all of the existing government regulations, smaller manufacturers would have a chance to be disruptive and gain a foothold by taking advantage of a wide array unplucked low-hanging fruit, but because of existing regulations, mass producing a single model of car is now over $1 billion. $40,000 EVs are not going to catch on for Joe Sixpack. He doesn't have that kind of money, is already living paycheck to paycheck, and is lucky to have $500 in savings. If his car payment instead would be less than the cost of fueling/maintaining his existing used ICE car, he might consider it because it would actually free up more money. But no one is considering this. They can't think beyond the next quarterly report and continue to clutch their pearls, wanting everyone to overpay on bloated lardass vehicles destined to end up as landfill fodder in 20 years. And it's killing our planet.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 20 Nov 2022, 18:11:31

The_Toecutter wrote: $40,000 EVs are not going to catch on for Joe Sixpack. He doesn't have that kind of money, is already living paycheck to paycheck, and is lucky to have $500 in savings. If his car payment instead would be less than the cost of fueling/maintaining his existing used ICE car, he might consider it because it would actually free up more money. But no one is considering this.


Of course someone is. It is called the used EV market. My second EV cost $8s, with like 34k on it. It now has 53k on it. I've rotated the tires a couple times. Don't ever suppose that only folks with megabucks are required to buy these things, smart people who like saving mondo $$ buy them too!!
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Mon 21 Nov 2022, 21:42:50

Does that used EV have a warrantee? What condition is the battery pack in? How much is it going to cost to replace the charger or battery if either goes out unexpectedly? Will it cost more to fix than the car is worth?

While EVs tend to be reliable, there is no shortage of people that have gotten burned after purchasing lemons, for which it was not possible to tell they were lemons beforehand even in cases where the owner was meticulous about caring for it. A buyer can even end up owing payments on a used vehicle that no longer works and will take more money than the vehicle is worth to be operable again, and that is not a good situation to be when when one depends on that vehicle to get them back and forth to work while living paycheck to paycheck.

The fact that average working people are priced out of having a warrantee that comes with a new car says a lot about how things are today. Increasing precarity is a fact of life in the USA if you're not in the upper 20%.

I have a friend with a 1st generation Nissan Leaf. He got it dirt cheap, around $6k, and got 6 years use out of it. It now needs a new charger. The battery was still usable but otherwise in need of replacement since it was at the end of its life. Before the charger went out, it was only delivering about 30 miles of range. He bought it with an old battery that was initially delivering about 50-60 miles range and put tens of thousands of miles on it in that state. The car itself now has about 110,000 miles on it, and has been sitting for two years. That motor and inverter could easily last millions of miles, and the chassis many hundreds of thousands of miles. Nissan did not build it to be easily or inexpensively repaired. It will cost far more than the car is worth to fix.

These issues must be considered in the manufacture of EVs, and for the most part, currently they are not. And that's a shame, because EVs should be the most longest-lasting and most simple cars to repair ever sold given the simplicity of their powertrain. A million mile car is easy with this technology. It would be simple to make everything plug and play, but the auto manufacturers have decided to make everything locked off with proprietary software and dealership-only tools/parts, rendering otherwise useful parts and an otherwise still usable chassis into landfill fodder because the owner is not going to be able to justify the cost of multiple used cars to repair a used car.

What a waste. Especially given that there is no economically viable means to recycle some of the materials that go into these cars.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 22 Nov 2022, 13:37:22

The_Toecutter wrote:Does that used EV have a warrantee? What condition is the battery pack in? How much is it going to cost to replace the charger or battery if either goes out unexpectedly? Will it cost more to fix than the car is worth?


No. Excellent. Dunno. Might.

Here is the beauty of cheap buyin though Toe. Numbers 3 and 4 may never matter if a car company can build a car with a different drive train and do it well. 8 years for 1 and nearly 2 years for the other now, and the answer is...looking good.

Other EV, having paid far more for it a long time ago, did have a warrantee, but it is long gone. The SOC on the original battery is maybe 80%? Dunno how much to replace the charger or battery there either. And might cost more than car is worth. And it has 173K on it as it sits in the garage. Do you want to tell me how it has served me poorly over 8 years and 170k+ miles? Because I have to be honest, how well that one worked in all EV mode is what made it worth the risk on a 2nd used one. And both of them, with 200K+ running miles, are doing fine.

Do you assume otherwise, that engineers at Ford and Nissan can't build a solid battery/electric motor setup?


Toe_Cutter wrote:While EVs tend to be reliable, there is no shortage of people that have gotten burned after purchasing lemons, for which it was not possible to tell they were lemons beforehand even in cases where the owner was meticulous about caring for it. A buyer can even end up owing payments on a used vehicle that no longer works and will take more money than the vehicle is worth to be operable again, and that is not a good situation to be when when one depends on that vehicle to get them back and forth to work while living paycheck to paycheck.


See above. No lemons in sight. Cars are built better now in general, this isn't like when I grew up and mostly junk was coming out of Detroit.

Toe_Cutter wrote: Nissan did not build it to be easily or inexpensively repaired. It will cost far more than the car is worth to fix.


Could be. The question I ask when buying any vehicle, is what is my Capx/Mile driven. For example, new car, $40G's, driven 1 mile, is $40G's/mile Capx. Not really interested in OpX but anyone could include that if they wanted.

My best car isn't my new ones that went 100K miles at $25G buyin (4 miles/$1) or even my 8 year old original EV (172K miles/$27.5G buyin= 6.2 miles/$1) but the POS Chrysler I bought for a college car for the kids, that during the last weeks snowstorm was the only one I was running, blasting through snow like a Hummer and nearly impossible to stop in anything less than a foot of snow, 20K miles at $2.8G buyin = 7.1 miles/$1.

The Leaf sits at 2.5 miles/$1 right now. If it goes as long as your friends, it'll get to 8.1 miles/1$ and beat them all. So I would have nothing to complain about if it died just as your friends did, my money would have been frugally spent.

The way to do even better? My current experiment, purchased with salvage title, old school American iron, it already sits at 2.7 miles/$1 spent, and when testing of it ends in the spring at 20K miles, I have hopes it will already be at 6+ miles/$1 spent in a single year, with another 100K of life left in it.

In either case, neither of my EVs have been a disappointment.

Toe_Cutter wrote:What a waste. Especially given that there is no economically viable means to recycle some of the materials that go into these cars.


Well, looks like Leaf batteries can have life after life.
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Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 23 Nov 2022, 16:20:08

AdamB wrote:
The_Toecutter wrote: $40,000 EVs are not going to catch on for Joe Sixpack. He doesn't have that kind of money, is already living paycheck to paycheck, and is lucky to have $500 in savings. If his car payment instead would be less than the cost of fueling/maintaining his existing used ICE car, he might consider it because it would actually free up more money. But no one is considering this.


Of course someone is. It is called the used EV market. My second EV cost $8s, with like 34k on it. It now has 53k on it. I've rotated the tires a couple times. Don't ever suppose that only folks with megabucks are required to buy these things, smart people who like saving mondo $$ buy them too!!

There's also the fact that the AVERAGE new car transaction price in the US is now $48K+. Just a stunning figure IMO, as someone who paid $21K for what I considered by far the nicest car I've ever had in 2017, a new Camry SE, with the optional moonroof as the only equipment I wanted beyond the base car. (My first car from the 60's had no radio, no fan and 50 HP as I recall -- a lot of expectations is based on what you consider is "normal". Every new car I've owned, once every dozen years or so, seemed FANTSASTIC compared to what I was used to).

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/new-car-pr ... igh-again/

Couple that with the fact that outfits like BYD and Tesla are looking at making BEV's in high volume at more like $30K price, BEV's will be mighty competitive over time, even BEFORE the cost of fuel is considered, which gives charging a BIG advantage in many parts of the world, including the vast majority of the US.

And yes, many people will go to the used market for ICE, for BEV, and for hybrid, seeing what they can afford. Nothing new about that concept whether it's J6P or the upper middle class, etc. In 5 years a WIDE range of used BEV's at all sorts of price points, mileage, and condition, will be available for J6P.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 23 Nov 2022, 17:36:16

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And yes, many people will go to the used market for ICE, for BEV, and for hybrid, seeing what they can afford. Nothing new about that concept whether it's J6P or the upper middle class, etc. In 5 years a WIDE range of used BEV's at all sorts of price points, mileage, and condition, will be available for J6P.

The wonders of how market saturation curves function never ceases to amaze. I've got 2 EVS, and 2 POS's (and sure some others and motorcycles, but they aren't relevant). Each pair has about the same number of running miles, 200k+, the EVs are 2014-2015 vintage, the POS's 2000-2001 vintage.

These 4 are a test. Other folks quote the work of others and studies, but I've found that directly applicable personal experience has advantages that few are willing, or capable, of acquiring. Toe Cutter, HE can talk about EVs anytime and anywhere he wants, having built his own. Plant the EV poser can only pretend.

I plan on adding up the $$'s and miles and see what is what.
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Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 02 Dec 2022, 23:34:28

Swiss look to ban use of electric cars over the winter to save energy

Switzerland is considering legislation that would ban people from driving electric vehicles except in urgent conditions over the winter because there simply might not be enough juice on the grid to recharge them.

December 2, 2022 10:00 AM

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2022/12/01 ... gy-n514785

By JAZZ SHAW

The European Union jumped on the electric vehicle craze well ahead of other parts of the world, particularly after the Paris climate accord. But in typical socialist fashion, they weren’t content with simply encouraging people to switch to EVs. Many European countries almost immediately started making plans to ban gas-powered cars and trucks and make EVs mandatory. Lots of Europeans wanted to get out ahead of the curve and began snapping the newer models up. But then came the start of the war in Ukraine, cutting energy supplies just as Europe was trying to wean itself off of fossil fuels. Now, in a rather embarrassing reversal, Switzerland is considering legislation that would ban people from driving electric vehicles except in urgent conditions over the winter because there simply might not be enough juice on the grid to recharge them. (From Der Spiegel. Original is in German but Google Translate can convert it for you.)

Switzerland could be the first country to impose driving bans on e-cars in an emergency to ensure energy security. Several media report this unanimously and refer to a draft regulation on restrictions and bans on the use of electrical energy. Specifically, the paper says: “The private use of electric cars is only permitted for absolutely necessary journeys (e.g. professional practice, shopping, visiting the doctor, attending religious events, attending court appointments).” A stricter speed limit is also planned highways.

Most of the electricity in Switzerland comes from hydropower. However, the country also imports electricity from Germany and France . If there are bottlenecks there, electricity could also become scarce in Switzerland. Energy security in Europe is considered endangered because of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine .

Switzerland has various “escalation levels” for its energy crisis. The ban on recharging electric vehicles would only go into effect when they reach level 3 according to the draft copy of the legislation that reporters obtained. Prior to that, the government would impose limits on how hot the water can be in washing machines (yes… seriously) and they would ban the use of leaf blowers and seat heaters in chair lifts. Bizarrely, they will also limit videos from streaming services to only be shown in SD resolution. (Huh?)

So much the same as we saw in California earlier this year, the government pushed everyone to switch over to electric vehicles to save the planet. But now they’re warning them that they won’t be able to recharge their vehicles except for “urgent travel requirements.” The crazy part of all of this is that the major energy corporations have been warning everyone about this for several years. The power grid doesn’t produce endless electricity by magic. You have to produce enough energy to power it or it fails. But nobody wanted to listen.

To put this story in context, consider the fact that in June of this year, the EU proposed a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2035

From 2035, newly registered cars and light goods vehicles will no longer be allowed to emit greenhouse gases. The decision was approved on June 29 by the 27-member group. The ban on internal combustion engines voted by the European Parliament – which the EU member States still have to approve – effectively marks the end of petrol- and diesel-powered vehicles, as well as hybrids, which are currently experiencing a boom. In future, only new electric or hydrogen-powered models will be able to be sold.

2035 is only a little more than a decade away. If this proposal passes, Europe won’t even allow hybrids to be sold. Only fully electric vehicles or hydrogen-powered ones. Good luck finding a hydrogen recharging station, by the way. And unless they get their energy grid back under control, there’s no guarantee you’ll be able to drive your car anywhere.

I was under the impression that Europe was a collection of first-world countries. Perhaps I was mistaken.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 03 Dec 2022, 11:04:28

Tanada wrote:
[b]Swiss look to ban use of electric cars over the winter to save energy



I wonder if the result would be any different for ICE machines if there was a lack of liquid fuels? In the US during the global 1979 peak oil, we rationed fuel, but didn't outright ban stuff.
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Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby mousepad » Sat 03 Dec 2022, 15:39:54

AdamB wrote:I wonder if the result would be any different for ICE machines if there was a lack of liquid fuels? In the US during the global 1979 peak oil, we rationed fuel, but didn't outright ban stuff.


There was a ban on driving on Sundays in Switzerland in the early 70s, due to lack of gas.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 13

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 03 Dec 2022, 16:35:51

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:I wonder if the result would be any different for ICE machines if there was a lack of liquid fuels? In the US during the global 1979 peak oil, we rationed fuel, but didn't outright ban stuff.


There was a ban on driving on Sundays in Switzerland in the early 70s, due to lack of gas.


I wonder how large the riots in the streets would be in the US if they tried that? And then us well informed and frugal EVers would still be out driving around...we'd probably be stoned by pedestrians stranded because of their poor choice in antique transportation fuel.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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