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The passing of a peak oil legend.

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

The passing of a peak oil legend.

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 15 Nov 2022, 20:33:20

RIP Colin. You taught those who have worked on solving peak oil far more about how not to do it than how to solve it, but you were a true believer and enthusiast, and your work began the modern era with your 1990 global peak oil call. May you draw bell shaped curves on Saint Peters forehead in order to prove your worthiness to get in to talk up those curves with King Hubbert himself.

RIP Colin Campbell, November 13, 2022
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: The passing of a peak oil legend.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 15 Nov 2022, 22:20:28

I always thought the term "peak oil" came from Hubbert, but according to the retrospective article in the link below the term "peak oil" was coined and popularized by Dr. Colin Campbell.

Peak Oil: Failed prediction or useful insight

Campbell himself was the chief geologist at BP and his actual job at BP was to predict the future of global oil production. In the late 90s Campbell predicted peak oil would occur ca. 2005-2007 at a rate of about 85 million barrels per day.

Colin Campbell then founded and served as the President of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil.

With the clarity of hindsight we can now say with certainty that Dr. Colin Campbell's prediction of ca. 2005 for the date of peak oil was premature.

Global oil production has continued to increase in most years since 2005, and the latest IEA prediction is that global oil production will grow another 1% to a new all time high in 2023 at just above 100 million barrels per day.....

As Yogi Berra once said, "Its tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

And Winston Churchill was in agreement with Yogi Berra when he said, "The future is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma."

Nonetheless, in spite of the difficulties, a few brave people still try to predict the future.

And Dr. Colin Campbell was one of those people.

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Dr. Colin Campbell, RiP.
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Re: The passing of a peak oil legend.

Unread postby jato0072 » Tue 15 Nov 2022, 23:04:11

I think the ability to model the future accurately is a great gift of human intelligence. The peak oil theory is well proven around the world on a regional basis.

For all of the predictions from the 1970s that were wrong:

Flying cars
Moon bases
Men landing on Mars
Hypersonic commercial transport (not even the Concorde survived)
Ending of wars
Ending of hunger
...you get the idea.

We are running the real world LTG experiment now. I think the LTG predictions of 50 years ago will be more correct then not.
"On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
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Re: The passing of a peak oil legend.

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 15 Nov 2022, 23:35:31

Plantagenet wrote:I always thought the term "peak oil" came from Hubbert, but according to the retrospective article in the link below the term "peak oil" was coined and popularized by Dr. Colin Campbell.

Peak Oil: Failed prediction or useful insight


The article is correct in terms of the popularization. And specifically avoids discussing Colin's beginning when he called global peak in 1990, establishing himself early as Mr Rinse-Recycle-Repeat.

Plantagenet wrote:Campbell himself was the chief geologist at BP and his actual job at BP was to predict the future of global oil production. In the late 90s Campbell predicted peak oil would occur ca. 2005-2007 at a rate of about 85 million barrels per day.


There appears to be no mention of Colin being a head geologist of BP. More like the usual career path of folks moving around with different majors, then moving onto consultancy. including his early collaboration with PetroConsultants.

You just take a bait offered, doncha Plant. Is it a problem that Colin was more run of the mill than the acolytes are told while listening intently in the pews?

Plantagenet wrote:Colin Campbell then founded and served as the President of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil.
With the clarity of hindsight we can now say with certainty that Dr. Colin Campbell's prediction of ca. 2005 for the date of peak oil was premature.


And his call in 1990 even more so. This is just one of the details that don't make the Sunday morning flyer when pitching peak to the faithful.

Plantagenet wrote:As Yogi Berra once said, "Its tough to make predictions, especially about the future."


Too bad Colin didn't pay attention to baseball quotes while predicting peak oils in 2 different centuries and multiple times in his career as Chief Prophet of the geologically ignorant.

Plantagenet wrote:Nonetheless, in spite of the difficulties, a few brave people still try to predict the future.
And Dr. Colin Campbell was one of those people.


We sure do. And have learned not to use bell shaped nonsense to base it on as well. Evolution in action, and Colin certainly popularized the church dogma. At the end of the day, it is unfortunate he never got around to being part of that evolution himself.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: The passing of a peak oil legend.

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 17 Nov 2022, 07:53:25

Sometimes the l9ng trend is easier to predict than the shorter term fluctuations.

Fracking, like the Grden Revolution, threw off various predictions but did not make the premise itself wrong, just the timing.

Tink about the oft cited phrase something like "human ingenuity and flexibility will find a way, it always does". This too is a prediction, based on past performance, by the lucky survivors.
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Re: The passing of a peak oil legend.

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 17 Nov 2022, 11:50:19

Newfie wrote:Sometimes the l9ng trend is easier to predict than the shorter term fluctuations.

Fracking, like the Grden Revolution, threw off various predictions but did not make the premise itself wrong, just the timing.


A point often claimed. Is there a further explanation for how fracking, a technique patently in the late 1940's, that Hubbert himself wrote a paper on in 1955 or so discussing the first 100,000 completions using this technique, "threw off" anyone but the historically or oil field uninformed? The USGS, correctly, wrote that 2/3's of ALL hydraulic fracturing had taken place in the 20th century....not the 21st. They knew this, and wrote it down, circa 2015 or so. It was quite common knowledge even before that. For anyone interested anyway. So...the only people it might be a surprise to are those who didn't bother to do the research. That explicitly can't be Hubbert, as he was publishing on it the same time he was doing his peak oil calls. So a single oilfield completion technique in no way explains either the timing of US oil resurgence or its ultimate cause. Folks unfamiliar with the practice like to claim it is so, but it is a tell as to their level of understanding of history, the oil field, its common practices and procedures, and nothing more.

Newfie wrote:
Tink about the oft cited phrase something like "human ingenuity and flexibility will find a way, it always does". This too is a prediction, based on past performance, by the lucky survivors.


This is such a common idea that the FEC has a regulation about it, just to remind folks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. SEC Rule 156. Not much related to survivors, but the same idea would seem to apply.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: The passing of a peak oil legend.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 17 Nov 2022, 16:39:06

jato0072 wrote:We are running the real world LTG experiment now. I think the LTG predictions of 50 years ago will be more correct then not.


Yup.

AND when you go back to the original Limits To Growth model, one of the key factors limiting the infinite growth model is POLLUTION.

Image

LTF comes not only from running out of stuff (like farmland and oil) but also from putting out too much pollution (like CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere).

Right now it looks like global warming from too much CO2 pollution is going to do us in........with a major assist from LTG on oil, farmland, declining fisheries, etc.

When you're modeling or theorizing about the factors that are the major LTG and whether or not they will bring about the end of human civilization the key thing isn't the exact calendar date of the end of human civilization. The key is to recognize that LTG are real and important and will eventually have major negative impacts on humanity. Its a very very complex question to understand all the interactions in the global economy and the global climate system, but there is no question that bad things are happening out there in the real world, and it has the potential to get even worse.

Cheers!
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Re: The passing of a peak oil legend.

Unread postby FamousDrScanlon » Thu 17 Nov 2022, 17:24:39

Like many guys, Colin waited until retirement and/or not working for money, to be his most candid. I've seen it often from people working in many fields, Seeing/hearing it a lot from climate scientists & others who study the condition of the biosphere. None of it's good unless you're a sadist.

I did not see Colin's birthday in the obit, but found it elsewhere.
He made it to 91 years of age.

Colin's detractors should get all their cheap shots in while they can because after peak oil is in the rear view mirror for a decade, Colin will be remembered as that guy who's peak oil prediction was only off by 12 years.

Colin Campbell (geologist)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Campbell_(geologist)


Peak Oil is Here! World oil production peaked in 2018
Posted on February 1, 2022 by energyskeptic

Preface. Peak oil is here! Well, OK, we need to officially wait 5 years. But it’s been true for four years, as you can see from the U.S. Energy Information Administration in late 2018 (EIA 2022). It is also likely because unconventional shale oil was responsible for over 90% of the increased production above the 2008 plateau with a little help from Canadian tar sands. Seven of the eight U.S. shale basins are past peak, with only the Permian producing the majority of fracked oil.


https://energyskeptic.com/2022/failing- ... -peak-oil/
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Re: The passing of a peak oil legend.

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 17 Nov 2022, 18:39:58

FamousDrScanlon wrote:Like many guys, Colin waited until retirement and/or not working for money, to be his most candid. I've seen it often from people working in many fields, Seeing/hearing it a lot from climate scientists & others who study the condition of the biosphere. None of it's good unless you're a sadist.


So when he called global peak oil in 1990, he was pulling his punches? He really thought it might have been sooner? An interesting thought.

FamousDrScanlon wrote:Colin's detractors should get all their cheap shots in while they can because after peak oil is in the rear view mirror for a decade, Colin will be remembered as that guy who's peak oil prediction was only off by 12 years.


Using the most current peak oil (#6 in 2018) he is 28 years off. So...no "only" other than "more than a quarter century". And those keeping an accurate track of his claims aren't considered to be detractors, just bookkeepers that know the claims he has made, rather than just some of them.



Yeah, and Alice doesn't know dick about peak oil.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: The passing of a peak oil legend.

Unread postby FamousDrScanlon » Fri 18 Nov 2022, 18:36:59

Here's a secret - predictions are just more gossip that neither prove nor disprove anything. Beyond meaningless, but the humans love em.

How sad that you are clearly threatened & envious of Alice's massive, and much loved and much frequented, peakoil+ library. Is it Alice specifically or any women who dare to claim priestly knowledge of peakoil?

Y'all should try one of Alice's crackwhore cracker recipes.

I've baked & stored a couple of barrels full so I have snacks after climate consequences drive food prices through the roof.

OMG Triscuits are now $26 a box!

Luckily, peakoil.com is a female free unofficial MGTOW hang out. Except for Planty.
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Re: The passing of a peak oil legend.

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 18 Nov 2022, 18:59:34

FamousDrScanlon wrote:Here's a secret - predictions are just more gossip that neither prove nor disprove anything. Beyond meaningless, but the humans love em.


Some humans. Happy McPeaksters certainly did. Past tense, recently they've gone all wishy washy, like "oh yeah well, when Colin claimed peak oil in 1990 he didn't really MEAN it, what he meant, but forget to write himself, was, you know, like give or take a century".

Can't build a religion on uncertainty. Just ask Harold Camping.

FamousDrScanlon wrote:How sad that you are clearly threatened & envious of Alice's massive, and much loved and much frequented, peakoil+ library. Is it Alice specifically or any women who dare to claim priestly knowledge of peakoil?


What are you talking about? I've discussed plenty of peak oil topics with her on Facebook, and access some of her blog posts just to see what the current state of whack a doodle McPeaksters looks like. My favorite was when she was pitching Robert Hirsh (again) for some fantasized doom back around 2014. She just can't stop. And hasn't. God blesss her soul, without internet fangirlz like her I'd have to waste time away from real research to keep an eye on what the churchgoers are still whining about.

FamousDrScanlon wrote:Luckily, peakoil.com is a female free unofficial MGTOW hang out. Except for Planty.


Planty has not confirmed their she/he/it status for some reason. So I try and give full credit for both genders and/or gender confusion. Just to be safe in todays PC world.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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