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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 23 Jul 2022, 10:39:10

vtsnowedin wrote:
Tanada wrote:
It would be a simple enough rule to ban the trading of stock by members of the legislative and executive branches while they are in office (include their spouses). But Congress always kills this bill when it comes up. People need to realize that w/o real reform the whole ship is going down.

I suspect that would just lead to a silent partner doing the investing. It could even be a partner who just rewards the tips with a cushy job after the congress critter leaves public office.

Well they are clever criminals with power so they will be hard to control. You might not catch a silent partner deal until he transfers the ill gotten gains back to the politician when he leaves office and we know how they resist leaving office. Another argument for term limits.

Ok, so let me get this straight, you are arguing for representatives not to be able to enjoy gaining from their endeavors while CEO's and other executives of corporations are expected, especially in the conservative sense, to deliberately engage in such activity? I thought you sort of people believed that the government could be run just like a corporation. You pussies. I hope you realize I say that tongue in cheek? This is, actually, one of those hard questions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby Doly » Sat 23 Jul 2022, 15:03:33

I thought you sort of people believed that the government could be run just like a corporation.


Yes, Republicans are well known for believing in impossible things. Most everyone else has figured out that the whole point of government is not living in a dog-eat-dog anarchy where everything is run like a private enterprise and nobody ever takes responsibility for the welfare of everyone living in a particular territory.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 23 Jul 2022, 15:27:43

evilgenius wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: Well they are clever criminals with power so they will be hard to control. You might not catch a silent partner deal until he transfers the ill gotten gains back to the politician when he leaves office and we know how they resist leaving office. Another argument for term limits.

Ok, so let me get this straight, you are arguing for representatives not to be able to enjoy gaining from their endeavors while CEO's and other executives of corporations are expected, especially in the conservative sense, to deliberately engage in such activity? I thought you sort of people believed that the government could be run just like a corporation. You pussies. I hope you realize I say that tongue in cheek? This is, actually, one of those hard questions.

Not zero gain.
An index fund would deliver them whatever the market delivers and with low expenses will deliver way above the return enjoyed by the average stock picker. All they would be deigned is the advantages that unethical people get from insider trading.If they were constrained to index funds open to public view the only way for them to make a big profit would be to do things that bring the whole market up helping all us peons at the same time.
Considering their generous Federal salaries, retirements and other benefits that should be enough. If not they should step aside and let one less greedy take on the job.
That CEOs and other private citizens make a lot of money ,at times, from the market and their companies efforts has no bearing on the argument.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 28 Jul 2022, 04:25:43

I think the whole concept of government exists so that even the strong can take some time away from constantly watching out for danger and get some sleep. The idea is for something invisible to do the work that your conscious attention would. Now, that is fraught with difficulty, when we try to actually define what that is. Naturally, we are talking about what individuals do. Individuals don't just function by thinking things out. They also get jealous, among other emotions. Those things also make up the invisible landscape.

I think this is what happens when capitalism stops becoming so beautiful to employers. You know, how usually capitalism gets a lot of supportive talk from business, until employees have any real bargaining power. That's when business relies upon the Fed. There is always a wealth of emotional talk, as well, to soothe those who are feeling it. But isn't capitalism beautiful all the time? I suppose that answer depends upon whether the markets are personal enough for you, or if their results are so undifferentiated that you can't find yourself in them. Do they benefit you or not?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 28 Jul 2022, 05:38:08

I don't think of Capitalism as being beautiful. It is often rather ugly in practice for those losing out to a competitor. But what it does do is deliver to society a return for effort and risks taken that is way above any other system. Even the so called prosperous socialist societies such as Denmark get their prosperity by mixing in capitalism in their business dealings to generate the tax revenue to support their socialist programs.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Jul 2022, 12:07:12

evilgenius wrote:I think the whole concept of government exists so that even the strong can take some time away from constantly watching out for danger and get some sleep. The idea is for something invisible to do the work that your conscious attention would. Now, that is fraught with difficulty, when we try to actually define what that is. Naturally, we are talking about what individuals do. Individuals don't just function by thinking things out. They also get jealous, among other emotions. Those things also make up the invisible landscape.


Bravo! I think this is very well said, when the human tribe self organizes what is the first thing that happens? Someone starts giving orders or even suggestions and the majority who are far more comfortable following than leading start acting on those orders. Almost immediately some of the population who are most dedicated to following will volunteer for things like guard duty partly because a guard has a slightly higher status than the people gathering fruit or whatever. Before many days pass an organic hierarchy forms with decision makers on top, enforcers in the middle and everyone else at the bottom. The more advanced/complex the society the more layers that form between grunt labor and decision maker.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 29 Jul 2022, 04:22:36

I do think capitalism is beautiful. I love the whole concept of market driven discovery. It is precise, and bound in time. Discovery is bound to the moment. You can see what might have been, right up to the moment when it wasn't. You can also see what now is. You find those separated by the actions of the market. It says something about decision making on a grand scale.

You can use the metaphor of thought to understand this a bit. I mean, it is possible to hold out your hand and will your finger, or some such, to move. If you don't, however, recruit enough energy to make the movement, like if you only will your finger to move lazily, it won't move. You know this. There is a difference between thinking about movement and recruiting enough energy to move. Actually bringing that energy is like bringing the cloud of the market. You recruit enough that the intention that all of that energy stood for wins. It is the decision that is made.

You know, it works that way with fear too. It is a voice in the market going on in your head. If you have faith, however, it is also a voice.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 29 Jul 2022, 11:36:07

I don't know how long this will last but I'm up 8.5% for the month and 1.4% just today so far. Apple and Amazon both reported strong results and that seems to be pushing the rest of the market up in spite of the inflation and interest rate numbers.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 30 Jul 2022, 08:20:12

You have to wonder when the market will go up again? I've seen a few times now how it tends to go up before the economy.

I am in a building position, so I didn't sell anything. Well, I sold some oil stuff when I thought oil had peaked. I didn't exactly get that right, but was within a few pennies. Woohoo. It's always fun to attribute pure luck to yourself when it goes right for you. Then it's easy to forget how tense it was for you when you had to make the decision to sell or not. But it's always tense. All you have to go by is your own capacity to think. The more of that I can do beforehand, the better.

Yes, up about 5% a day, three days in a row. I did some gloating, but already I am waiting for pullbacks in various positions. Prices are already too high in some places. Plantagenet has it right about seizing opportunity. You can only buy low when prices are low. If you expected cheaper and didn't buy, then who's the fool? Sometimes that's just luck. You have to take everything into consideration.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Jul 2022, 09:17:59

I have managed to not panic sell during this downturn at least so far but it does take a bit of grit and determination. This last week has been a nice change from the trend after last Novembers peak. Exxon was up $4.29 to $96.93 and Lockheed-Martin was up $7.73 to $413.81.
A few stocks that had turned negative for me during the slump have now turned back to positive but I still show sixteen losers in the list at present and the NASDAQ index fund is negative 8.19%.
But all the losses add up to less then a thousand dollars and the gains a several times that.
Next week should be interesting with the debate about that"inflation "bill going on.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Jul 2022, 10:01:20

vtsnowedin wrote:I don't know how long this will last but I'm up 8.5% for the month and 1.4% just today so far. Apple and Amazon both reported strong results and that seems to be pushing the rest of the market up in spite of the inflation and interest rate numbers.


Noticed a blurb in the paper that the last market month has been the best market uncrash in 2 years?
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whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Jul 2022, 11:13:31

AdamB wrote:
Noticed a blurb in the paper that the last market month has been the best market uncrash in 2 years?

Yes but it was down for six months.
The S&P hit a high back on January 4th of 4796 then dropped to 3667 on June 16th. That was a 23% drop. It has climbed back 11% to 4131.
My own results are or were quite similar.
But even at my low I was still doing a lot better then Cathy Woods ARKK fund which is down 54% over the same time frame.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 03 Aug 2022, 01:49:00

Bear markets usually have multiple major moves to the upside......before heading back down again to new lows.

Personally, I think we're still in a bear market and I expect the market to reverse course and go back down even lower into the fall.

Biden has put the economy into stagflation.........inflation combined with stagnant growth.........and its very hard to end stagflation without the economy moving into a recession.

And in a recession people lose their jobs and corporate profits go down and the markets go down even more.

You can already see news stories now about corporate layoffs.........I give covid-man Biden another 6-9 months to screw things up really good, before the economy can hit bottom. Only then will the market finally turn around IMHO.

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Personally, I think we're still in a bear market

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 04 Aug 2022, 04:54:17

I don't know that's where we are. The experience I have with stagflation is from the 70's. It was persistent. But high oil prices were politically driven. They had reason to linger, even when people wanted change.

Now, gas prices have come down about a buck, and people are still insisting they are as high as ever. People have a vested interest. I don't mean politically, but in terms of how they perceive the world. If you expect carnage because you want carnage, then be prepared if it doesn't come. Just saying.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 04 Aug 2022, 06:01:06

The market had a nice rally yesterday and I was up 4%. A couple of more days like that and I might be even for the year.
But I don't expect it to last as the real problem is our energy policy and that won't change until Biden is out of office.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby Doly » Thu 04 Aug 2022, 14:30:24

And in a recession people lose their jobs and corporate profits go down and the markets go down even more.


It used to be the case that the stock market would go down in a recession, but I'm not sure if that's true any more. The stock market has managed to ignore all sorts of economic bad news.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 13 Aug 2022, 07:28:29

I think the stocks in my portfolio are also being watched by organized groups of people who are looking for the same sort of a future as I am. There are investment clubs that concentrate on the same sort of stuff I do. Sometimes, when I expect contrarian dynamics, I get something other than the expected. It comes alive, when there is a run to the upside. It's FOMO.

My outlook is still one of a builder. I buy when the price is low. I want more shares, for when these stocks really come into their own. I don't believe in timing the market, except where I can work some angle. I mean, like owning enough shares that if I do sell some when the price is up I still have enough shares left that I feel like it is an adequate number for the good times. So, I sell enough to cover what I may have spent to get there, and make a little. Then, I still have enough left over.

I'm only in that position with some shorter term plays. I'm in the green on most things in my portfolio. Only my largest holdings are up by significant amounts. Those increases, however, could mean that I will have to redefine what a bargain is for those holdings. The price of that may have gone up. Everything else is up by an amount that could disappear at any moment. They could slip back into bargain territory easily.

Otherwise, the rising market makes me feel like a spectator. I'm not that good at gloating. I mean, it makes me feel uncomfortable, unless I make it obvious enough that people know I'm kidding. My stuff is way up. I mean, something like 50% in two to three weeks. I have been able to find some things to buy here and there, but it has been harder than ever to spot those opportunities.

Some of the more expensive stocks per share are still lingering in price. Some others that don't meet that criteria are as well. It makes me wonder if they are signalling to watch for a wave down, or for the downside pressure that signals to wane?

It can be the observation of the timing of economic forces at work. Inflation may not be as bad as we thought. The country could be about to enter into some new understanding of itself around the idea of labor.

That can't come without a lot of self-deceit. Big corporations haven't actually been the enemy of labor. Labor that sees itself as something other than labor, hung up on labor as a class issue, has been. "Recovery" may only be as close as America can compartmentalize its thinking.

You can't know, so you just gotta be brave.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 13 Aug 2022, 11:32:31

I'm not trying to time the market as I see it as a losers game. I make regular buys each month of from $200 to $400 and make my best choice based on the news and my research. Lately I'm leaning towards dividend paying stocks like AT&T (6.15%). My last buy was adding to my Lockheed-Martin (2.61%) as the war in Ukraine has boosted their business. The one non dividend paying stock that is doing well is GFS global foundries which is a chip maker and local that will benefit from the chips bill. My lucky stock picks were Moderna back when it was $65 and Exxon at $45.
For the rest of this month I'll be trying to digest the inflation bills effects on the market and the stocks I own or want to own.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 13 Aug 2022, 20:52:31

vtsnowedin wrote:I'm not trying to time the market as I see it as a losers game. I make regular buys each month of from $200 to $400 and make my best choice based on the news and my research.....


I also put some money in a stock fund each month, but then I do try to time the market when I make the actual stock purchases.

When the market is up I try not to buy .....when the market goes down significantly I will buy some stocks. I don't have any specific mathematical formula to calculate when the market is up or when it is down enough to buy some stocks....instead, I go with my "gut" feeling. If stocks are down so much that its making me feel sick about the stock market then thats my sign to buy some stocks.

I was feeling pretty bad about the drop in the stock market over the first six months of the year, so I bought a hunk of Snowflake (SNOW) in June....there is no dividend but Snowflake has run back up with the rest of the market and so far I'm up about 40% on this purchase.

Going forward I think we are in the beginning of a recession....and based on what I call the "Biden Effect" ----where Joe Biden screws everything up----- I expect this to be a deep recession. I think stocks will be heading back down again, and we'll see another stock market low sometime in the fall and/or winter. I'm building up funds in my stock account so I'll be ready to buy some additional stock when the "bear market" resumes and stocks plummet again.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 13 Aug 2022, 21:07:53

Plantagenet":
When the market is up I try not to buy

The trick there is knowing if it is halfway up or at a peak.
Market timers tend to miss both the highs and the lows so seldom do better then just buying when they have the cash and holding.
I seldom keep any cash in a ready account for stock purchases. I'd rather make a buy and hope it does better then inflation as holding cash is a sure loser and a well picked buy has at least a 50/50 chance of winning. And if I have a need I can sell quickly and redirect the money as needed to pay an unexpected bill or buy some other stock that appears to be a better bet.
We do keep some cash in a traditional savings account and keep a reasonably high balance in the checking account so the day to day unexpected bills can be handled easily.
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