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The second coming of $100/bbl oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 20 Jun 2022, 18:08:35

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: A 100% interest free loan to build a new refinery with 100% of the needed permits attached day one, with a thirty year guarantee of utilization might be a start. Otherwise the oil companies will just sit and wait for Biden to get swept out of office.


Oil companies don't care about the current oligarch brand when it comes to making long term capital expenditure decisions. They care about rules, regulations, their expectations of the future market and their ability to make money in it.

Yes but the current rules do apply to this years activities and profit potential. That Biden will most likely not be around for a second term means the oil companies can wait him out on any front longer then two and a half years.
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Jun 2022, 19:22:02

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:Oil companies don't care about the current oligarch brand when it comes to making long term capital expenditure decisions. They care about rules, regulations, their expectations of the future market and their ability to make money in it.

Yes but the current rules do apply to this years activities and profit potential.


Sure they do. To projects already given the green light when capital outlays were outlined and approved end of 2021 or so. Which didn't include current prices. Those are just gravy, and as previously discussed, they are making hay while the Sun shines. This applies to publics moreso than privates of course.

vtsnowedin wrote:That Biden will most likely not be around for a second term means the oil companies can wait him out on any front longer then two and a half years.


Hopes and dreams for another 2 years are just that, as of right now. And they don't need to wait him out, they work under the works and market conditions of any given moment. Just as I previously said. They don't have your political party uber alles mentality. Oil prices don't correlate with oligarch brands in the US.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 21 Jun 2022, 01:38:44

they work under the works and market conditions of any given moment.

Yes and market conditions include the rule set currently being applied by government.
Change administrations or just change the rules and you will get different cap. ex. activity in line with the new rules.
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby PeakOilFanatic » Tue 21 Jun 2022, 05:47:39

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:Oil companies don't care about the current oligarch brand when it comes to making long term capital expenditure decisions. They care about rules, regulations, their expectations of the future market and their ability to make money in it.

Yes but the current rules do apply to this years activities and profit potential.


Sure they do. To projects already given the green light when capital outlays were outlined and approved end of 2021 or so. Which didn't include current prices. Those are just gravy, and as previously discussed, they are making hay while the Sun shines. This applies to publics moreso than privates of course.

vtsnowedin wrote:That Biden will most likely not be around for a second term means the oil companies can wait him out on any front longer then two and a half years.


Hopes and dreams for another 2 years are just that, as of right now. And they don't need to wait him out, they work under the works and market conditions of any given moment. Just as I previously said. They don't have your political party uber alles mentality. Oil prices don't correlate with oligarch brands in the US.


Look at Adam get destroyed on the peakoilbarrel website. Adam was boasting about reservoir engineers being competent at something and this is Mike Shellman's reply to him. Adam the fraud all hat no oil. Isn't that right, Big Boy?:

MIKE SHELLMAN

06/20/2022 at 8:26 pm
In the half century I have been an oil and gas operator (and a worldwide well control hand for the biggest well control company in the world), I’ve only met five fingers of reservoir engineers that had the courage to put their money where their big mouths were. , They always worked for somebody else, on a salary, were pompous and arrogant, and quick to blame somebody else, like other engineers, or geologists, for their hypothetical BS.

Man, given what we now know about reservoir engineer induced EUR exaggerations in the tight oil and gas biz; yikes! THATS embarrassing.

In the well control business, engineers always stood back 500 yards and watched us fix their mistakes, reservoir engineers never left the office. Bad analogy there, big boy,

If you want to understand something about an oil field, avoid engineers (and Mike Lynch, good grief!) and ask somebody with their own money invested in it. They’ll shot straight with you every time.

And by the way, if there is SOOOOOO much oil everywhere in the world, so much tight oil in the US, if reserve growth actually “rules…”

…why is the price of oil so high?
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Jun 2022, 11:00:12

vtsnowedin wrote:
they work under the works and market conditions of any given moment.

Yes and market conditions include the rule set currently being applied by government.


Sure. The good news being, Biden never changed any rules related to oil and gas drilling and production that effected operations. All he did was induce a future possibility that the administration was going to be antagonistic towards oil and gas. And that is easily accounted for within the assumptions of a composite cost/benefit calculation. Kids stuff. They probably don't even involve the experienced engineers in that unless the project is substantial, as in, hundreds of millions of Capx at a minimum.

vtsnowedin wrote: Change administrations or just change the rules and you will get different cap. ex. activity in line with the new rules.


Good thing Biden never changed any rules related to drilling and production operations then. Any more than Bernie claiming we need to be socialist made Vermonters socialist.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 21 Jun 2022, 11:19:51

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: Change administrations or just change the rules and you will get different cap. ex. activity in line with the new rules.


Good thing Biden never changed any rules related to drilling and production operations then. Any more than Bernie claiming we need to be socialist made Vermonters socialist.

Ahh but he has. From locking out Alaska's Anwar , plus off shore, and any new permits on Federal land . To adding on whole new layers of permit regulation where bureaucrats spend years determining the "Carbon life cycle cost of a permit". He has made it fiduciarilly irresponsible for any board of directors to spend any cap ex money for any project with a lifetime of more the a couple of years. He has pledged to put them out of business by 2030 or 2035 (depending on the speech) and the boards have to take that at face value.
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Jun 2022, 12:44:52

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:Good thing Biden never changed any rules related to drilling and production operations then. Any more than Bernie claiming we need to be socialist made Vermonters socialist.


Ahh but he has. From locking out Alaska's Anwar , plus off shore, and any new permits on Federal land .


You'll forgive me for my experience knowing the difference between changes that would ever change my CapX planning for an entire company. You know, like I once did for a living.

Anwar has been a football for decades, and has been irrelevant that entire time. Offshore has always had more stringent requirements for development, under Trump just like Biden, and no, Joe didn't change any that matter, and we have already discussed why permits on Federal land were also irrelevant within the time frame he reversed his decision within.

Your always on, always repetitive anti-D inflicted ignorance on this topic is not becoming.

vtsnowedin wrote:To adding on whole new layers of permit regulation where bureaucrats spend years determining the "Carbon life cycle cost of a permit".


Planning out new rules in the future, like past administrations, doesn't change production and operational procedures today. Name the regulation or changes to permitting (which by the way doesn't affect a thing where permits are given on most land, which is by the state) which might change capital outlays in the future. Otherwise wait until then to pretend current production is being effected.

vtsnowedin wrote:He has made it fiduciarilly irresponsible for any board of directors to spend any cap ex money for any project with a lifetime of more the a couple of years.


Please point out the financial, tax or fiduciary law or regulation created and enforced on oil and gas corporations or signed into law by Biden that changes the CapX calculation of companies in some way that IN AND OF ITSELF, would stop them from spending money.

And no, idiot bobble heads on your favorite misinformation outlet doesn't equal the law or regulation and its federally required nomenclature so someone like me can find it and apply it in conjunction with the lawyers and accountants when creating next years CapX budget.

vtsnowedin wrote:He has pledged to put them out of business by 2030 or 2035 (depending on the speech) and the boards have to take that at face value.


Are you seriously as blind to reality as StarvingPuutyTat that you don't know the difference between a rule, regulation or some passed law and a politician speculating on hopes and dreams? Or are Fox News bobble heads talking points and hopes and dreams the best you can do?

Let me guess VT, you've got zero, and I mean ZERO experience with much beyond running a crew where one of those damnable engineers you don't like much was off handling the real work that made it all possible? Because either you are being dumb on purpose as part of your anti-D charade, or you really don't know squat about how big capital outlays get done at the state or federal level, be it the time frame planning, the financials, regulatory and environmental compliance work, and then managing a project the size of, you know, like a significant fraction of your entire state's annual budget?
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 21 Jun 2022, 13:18:21

OK so I don't know anything and you know everything and Biden has not changed anything. Got it. But wait! Gas was $2.26 a gallon the day he was elected and I paid $5.10 yesterday. And no that did not just happen after the February 24th invasion of Ukraine.
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Jun 2022, 13:54:29

vtsnowedin wrote:OK so I don't know anything.....


I didn't say that. When politics aren't involved, you appear to think rationally. And I'll take rational even with that limitation.

vtsnowedin wrote:... and you know everything and Biden has not changed anything. Got it.


Probably not. Unfortunately, because there is a visceral anti-D slant to with you, if politics are anywhere nearby it short circuits your objectivity big-time. I just happen to know the rules of the oil and gas game is all. You know the rules of managing a road paving crew and surveying and whatnot, right? I imagine if there was no relationship to politics in a question I might ask about doing such things, you could reasonably inform me of how it works, how you've done it, experience like that isn't to be discounted when trying to understand something.

vtsnowedin wrote:But wait! Gas was $2.26 a gallon the day he was elected and I paid $5.10 yesterday. And no that did not just happen after the February 24th invasion of Ukraine.


Yes, I understand that as a last resort you will apply "He Who Is In Power Gets Credit/Blame" rule. And as long as you like this rule, I am more than happy to use it as well. Thank God Biden saved us from the Trump recession! :) See how easy that was?
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 21 Jun 2022, 15:03:00

You seem to think an anti Democrat point of view is some sort of mental weakness. My negative opinion of the Democrats is based on years of their results when ever the are in power and today Biden, Harris and AOC are the worst of the worst. That you choose to defend them to me is the sign of mental weakness.
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 21 Jun 2022, 16:39:35

The tight oil market and high oil prices over $100/bbl could last 3-5 more years

oil-turbulence-could-last-five

This is very good news!

This means we can look forward to another 3-5 years of bashing Biden and the Ds for their stupidity and incompetence and senile dementia in causing high gasoline prices, inflation, recession, and all the other ills of the world

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Is Joe Biden as stupid as he seems or should we be sympathetic because what seems like stupidity is actually due to the fact that he is suffering from senile dementia?

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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Jun 2022, 17:19:33

vtsnowedin wrote:You seem to think an anti Democrat point of view is some sort of mental weakness.


Not a mental weakness, but any bias is an inherent disadvantage in optimum decision making. In your case it isn't just bias, it creates a mile wide hole in your ability to project into the future. Better future? Give me Republicrats! Worse future? Give me more Democans!

And the future is far more likely to not give a rat's behind as to which brand happens to be in charge when run of the mill events happen, be they Covid and the resulting knock on effects, or a meteor strike on London.

vtsnowedin wrote:My negative opinion of the Democrats is based on years of their results when ever the are in power and today Biden, Harris and AOC are the worst of the worst. That you choose to defend them to me is the sign of mental weakness.


My negative opinion of politicians is based on exactly the same idea. Be they the AOC gang, or the seditionist scumbags on the Republicrat side. I choose to defend neither side, and most certainly do not attribute to them events that are beyond their control, but certainly DO attribute to them things they've done that caused results. And then we can discuss whether those results are good to bad. Don't project onto me what you think is your mirror, that also is a big tell in terms of natural bias. I've mentioned it before, and if you've missed my hints in my description of the value of Jimmy Carter and the like, then not only do you have a bias but you don't even SEE evidence to the contrary, which is a tell on the level of bias you've got, that contradicting evidence is invisible to you. And you've done it multiple times now, which indicates habit. Both the invisibility of evidence to the contrary of your bias, and refusal to accept it when it does get through your Republicrat colored filters.

Your party isn't the one I voted for back in the 70's and 80's anymore VT. And you aren't going to get it back anytime soon, as I've explained elsewhere. I only mention I've already explained it elsewhere in case you never even noticed, having blocked out any evidence that something is amiss in the party of Lincoln. Like...somehow they decided to become the Confederates for some reason? And seem to have WAY too many po' white crackers cheering them on.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 21 Jun 2022, 18:41:26

I choose to defend neither side,

But you attack the Republican side at every opportunity so your statement is a big fat lie.
I've already explained it elsewhere in case you never even noticed, having blocked out any evidence that something is amiss in the party of Lincoln. Like...somehow they decided to become the Confederates for some reason? And seem to have WAY too many po' white crackers cheering them on.

If you can dredge up any time I have supported the MAGA fraction of the Republican party I would like to see it. If you can find one it must have been way past Beer thirty and the opposition was declaring the Biden administration was gods gift to the masses.
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 22 Jun 2022, 00:17:49

vtsnowedin wrote:
I choose to defend neither side,

But you attack the Republican side at every opportunity so your statement is a big fat lie.


Incorrect, and thanks for proving my point. You don't even see when I launch at a Democan, because all you can see is any commentary you deem not complementary to the party of Lincoln. You seriously want to ignore that the fact that Lee's Army couldn't get a Confederate battle flag into the Capital but some nose picker Republican did it in a morning?

vtsnowedin wrote: If you can dredge up any time I have supported the MAGA fraction of the Republican party I would like to see it.


If you can dredge up any time I have supported the AOC fraction of the Democan party I would like to see it.

vtsnowedin wrote: If you can find one it must have been way past Beer thirty and the opposition was declaring the Biden administration was gods gift to the masses.


I only assigned you a MAGA affiliation until I paid more attention. I have been characterizing your musings as hyper reverse parisanship, or always anti-D, not the same thing. And you do this without a mention as to the festering puss revealed as a possible majority inside your favorite brand for awhile now, with or without your support. So you aren't a fan of your party being taken over by a band of happy seditionists? Bummer. But pointing it out doesn't make me a D supporter any more than you because you are hoping for the current Republicrats to stop being traitors to the Constitution.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 22 Jun 2022, 12:48:34

"The Price of War"

https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/

Touches on inflation, Brent oil price history, and other issues. Interesting to see how the different OECD countries are coping. Includes link to full report. Cool simple graphs!
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 22 Jun 2022, 14:06:40

they decided to become the Confederates for some reason?


Like many poorly educated people, you don't know anything about history.

The Democratic Party was the party of the traitors who seceded and started the confederacy. Thats because the Democratic party has a long and shameful history of supporting slavery, segregation, Jim Crow and other racist policies.

In fact I was delighted by the recent Juneteenth Holiday, because Juneteenth actually marks the day of the final Union victory over the Confederacy and its Democratic Party supporters..its the day that the last Democratic Party holdouts in Texas were ordered by the Grand Army of the Republic to free their slaves, thereby completing the Republican Party policy of ending slavery.

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HooRAY! The Confederacy is defeated and the Democrats are undone!!!! Slavery is ended at last!!!!

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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 22 Jun 2022, 15:02:07

Plantagenet wrote:
they decided to become the Confederates for some reason?


Like many poorly educated people, you don't know anything about history.


Says Sarah Palin's checkers partner. Think she'll beat Santa Claus to represent Alaskans? And how is your recovery from being grief counseled by Guy going? Have the nightmares gone away? Try some jet setting, Antarctica to club baby seals or something, one entitled American can never pollute too much!
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 29 Jun 2022, 16:17:02

Joe Biden's White House is now planning for $200/bbl oil

white-house-quietly-modeling-shock-200-oil

I'll be very impressed if Joe Biden screws things up enough to get us up to $200 bbl oil.

The second coming of $100/bbl oil has been bad enough, with inflation on fire and the economy set to go into a recession.

I can't even imagine what the economy will be like if Joe Biden's senility and incompetence screws things up so bad we get to $200/bbl oil.

That would be a 400% increase from when Joe took office!!!

Image
What's Joe Biden screwed up now.....omigosh......Joe Biden did....THAT!!!?!?!?!??!

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Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama

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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 29 Jun 2022, 16:57:35

A hundred bucks aren't what they used to be! :lol:
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Doly » Thu 30 Jun 2022, 15:32:58

The Democratic Party was the party of the traitors who seceded and started the confederacy.


Any similarities between the Democratic Party today and the Democratic Party of 20 years ago, let alone the Democratic Party of historical times, are mostly coincidence.
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