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PeakOil is You

THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 12 Jun 2022, 06:17:32

The WTI price chart reached its end point and blew up with a price spike.

We have now reached the point where money is being destroyed as we go down the Net Energy Cliff.

This is what Shortonoil predicted would happen.

The point where this would happen seems to be when half of the world's petroleum production reached EROI < 1:1 in 2021.
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Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 12 Jun 2022, 08:40:59

Yoshua wrote:The WTI price chart reached its end point and blew up with a price spike.

We have now reached the point where money is being destroyed as we go down the Net Energy Cliff.


Net energy is net energy, not price. Price is a consequence of a couple of things, supply and demand and whatnot, but it can be high with small amounts being supplied and demanded, or large ones. Net energy is the idea that peak oilers fled to when it turned out that they knew nothing about oil, gas, production, geology or economics. As long as they ignore the actual work on using net energy as a predictor done by Duncan and Hall and whatnot, they can just pretend it matters. Unfortunately, it doesn't, and that is because there is a market value difference in BTUs.

Yoshua wrote:This is what Shortonoil predicted would happen.


No it isn't. He predicted the price would go to zero. A couple years ago, if memory serves. Selective memory much? You were there when under his various usernames he began to look more and more ridiculous. Even admitted he was just a troll, the quote is in my sig line.

Yoshua wrote:The point where this would happen seems to be when half of the world's petroleum production reached EROI < 1:1 in 2021.


Good thing that isn't true in the least either. And a good thing that even a moron knows that net energy isn't about just oil, it is about energy. Duh.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 12 Jun 2022, 08:57:58

How long can dementia Joe keep draining 1mbpd for the SPR?
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Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 12 Jun 2022, 09:10:50

Armageddon wrote:How long can dementia Joe keep draining 1mbpd for the SPR?


500+ million last month available, being removed at 5 million a week,the normal physics of fluid flow means that as pressure drops the rate will be forced to decrease at some point (but not if the things really are just big tanks, then they'll drain just like a tank), but call it 100 weeks tops.

Doesn't matter really to the market. The assumptions I just made are also made by the traders, and they know that reducing inventory was meant as a STRATEGIC reservoir, not as a market price manipulator. Biden doesn't know any more about economics apparently than peak oilers do. But the optics are better than doing nothing, and that is mostly what matters to politicians from either party, pretending to do something.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 12 Jun 2022, 09:53:56

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:How long can dementia Joe keep draining 1mbpd for the SPR?


500+ million last month available, being removed at 5 million a week,the normal physics of fluid flow means that as pressure drops the rate will be forced to decrease at some point (but not if the things really are just big tanks, then they'll drain just like a tank), but call it 100 weeks tops.

Doesn't matter really to the market. The assumptions I just made are also made by the traders, and they know that reducing inventory was meant as a STRATEGIC reservoir, not as a market price manipulator. Biden doesn't know any more about economics apparently than peak oilers do. But the optics are better than doing nothing, and that is mostly what matters to politicians from either party, pretending to do something.


Reminds me of an old joke from the Cold War days. A western economist was sent to observe in a Soviet state factory producing cast iron cookware. He noticed the employees spent a lot of time drunk and just barely meeting quota as often as not by cheating the system. He asked a senior employee why the workers took no pride in their jobs and got the answer. "As long as they pretend to pay us we pretend to work."

Politicians of all stripes want to appear to be working hard so they flail around 'doing something" which as often as not makes the problem worse, not better.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 12 Jun 2022, 10:11:48

Tanada wrote:Politicians of all stripes want to appear to be working hard so they flail around 'doing something" which as often as not makes the problem worse, not better.


Appearance matters. Politicians, as dumb as they generally appear to be (and sometimes actually are) know that circumstances beyond their control are often how they are defined. So in the moment, they are trying to set the perception, their they were, doing their best, trying and trying. And if it works, they claim it worked because of their arm waving. And if it didn't, A) they were trying and B) the cause was the other parties fault.

Pretty standard American politics I suppose.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 12 Jun 2022, 11:28:35

Peak Oil 2018

We live now in a Post Peak Oil world. We are actually in a Post Peak Oil Natural Gas and Coal world.

The WTI did drop to zero in 2020 as Shortonoil predicted.

In 2021 we saw price spikes in oil natural gas and coal as artificial demand from trillions in printed money by the central banks hit a decline supply.

We are now seeing the destruction of money with high inflation around the world.

Peak Oil...EROI...Finance...Economy...turns out to be a very complex event.
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Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postby randomguyonabike » Sun 12 Jun 2022, 11:39:35

Yoshua wrote:Peak Oil 2018

We live now in a Post Peak Oil world. We are actually in a Post Peak Oil Natural Gas and Coal world.

The WTI did drop to zero in 2020 as Shortonoil predicted.

In 2021 we saw price spikes in oil natural gas and coal as artificial demand from trillions in printed money by the central banks hit a decline supply.

We are now seeing the destruction of money with high inflation around the world.

Peak Oil...EROI...Finance...Economy...turns out to be a very complex event.


It is a shame BW passed away. Wonder what he would say today....
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Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 12 Jun 2022, 14:23:18

Yoshua wrote:Peak Oil 2018


Cool. I'll talk about #6 this century.

Yoshua wrote:We live now in a Post Peak Oil world. We are actually in a Post Peak Oil Natural Gas and Coal world.


Sure. Just like we were from 1979 through about 1995 or so. About 16 years we lived in the global peak oil of 1979. Roaring 80's some thought of that first decade as well.

Yoshua wrote:The WTI did drop to zero in 2020 as Shortonoil predicted.


The prediction was for an annual price. Not a day or couple of days. And, you might have forgotten, but it certainly wasn't supposed to come BACK. Come on Yoshua, you haven't been around in awhile, at least you can pretend you aren't suffering from peaker idiotosis.

Yoshua wrote:In 2021 we saw price spikes in oil natural gas and coal as artificial demand from trillions in printed money by the central banks hit a decline supply.


Good thing peak oil 4 years ago doesn't have anything to do with price, but is a volume claim. Come on Yoshua, what, seriously, peakoil idiotosis?

Yoshua wrote:Peak Oil...EROI...Finance...Economy...turns out to be a very complex event.


Peak oil is easy. A maximum rate. Period. I didn't define it that way, McPeaksters did. Well, they did until it happened a couple times then they began to do what you and particularly Short on doing, dodge demonstrating having been wrong because you don't know squat about oil or resource or geology, and come up with a red herring to distract from having been afflicted with McPeakster-idiotosis.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 12 Jun 2022, 14:25:44

randomguyonabike wrote:It is a shame BW passed away. Wonder what he would say today....


Who is a BW?
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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