Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby JuanP » Fri 03 Jun 2022, 17:10:56

randomguyonabike wrote:Gas has gone from 4.49 at the start of the week to 4.99 at the end of the week.....this is the fastest rise in gas prices I have ever seen and I am from podunk nowheresville.

Things are starting to deteriorate very quickly now.


Prices have always gone up and down. I am old enough to remember the 70s! Since you are on a bike, you should be able to adapt with more ease than others.
"The next war in Europe will be between Russia and fascism, except that fascism will be called democracy" Fidel Castro
JuanP
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1870
Joined: Sat 16 Aug 2014, 15:06:32

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 03 Jun 2022, 19:24:41

AdamB wrote:
randomguyonabike wrote:Gas has gone from 4.49 at the start of the week to 4.99 at the end of the week.....this is the fastest rise in gas prices I have ever seen and I am from podunk nowheresville.

Things are starting to deteriorate very quickly now.


Went on walkabout for a couple weeks. Gas was about $4.45/gal when I left, and was $4.40 when I got back. Once upon a time gas tripled in price, during the real energy crisis of the 1970's. This ain't even that yet. But the SCREAMING when gasoline went to $1.00/gal, it makes the whining now look pretty weak.

Perspective matters. I recommend EVs myself, but to each their own.

It is early yet.
I expect you will see screaming and real pain like never before soon enough. As the government can't see or admit what they are doing is wrong it will just keep snowballing into an avalanche.
$4.50 gas will seem like the good old days when it hits $9.00.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13775
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 03 Jun 2022, 23:02:45

vtsnowedin wrote:.
I expect you will see screaming and real pain like never before soon enough. As the government can't see or admit what they are doing is wrong it will just keep snowballing into an avalanche.
$4.50 gas will seem like the good old days when it hits $9.00.


Hey, if folks had prepped right for peak oil with EVs and whatnot as some around here were discussing a decade or more ago, higher liquid fuel prices aren't much of an issue. Nice to have prepped in an effective way, more useful than learning how to build home made claymores to stop the starving hordes fleeing the urban areas, am I right or am I right?
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 7740
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 05:55:33

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:.
I expect you will see screaming and real pain like never before soon enough. As the government can't see or admit what they are doing is wrong it will just keep snowballing into an avalanche.
$4.50 gas will seem like the good old days when it hits $9.00.


Hey, if folks had prepped right for peak oil with EVs and whatnot as some around here were discussing a decade or more ago, higher liquid fuel prices aren't much of an issue. Nice to have prepped in an effective way, more useful than learning how to build home made claymores to stop the starving hordes fleeing the urban areas, am I right or am I right?

Well the hordes are not staving as of yet but they are fleeing the city and crime. No need for claymores, 22 and 7mm ammo will do.
I am putting in a full garden this year as a prep for a long food shortage winter.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13775
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 07:59:05

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: The November elections if they shake out as the current polls say they will will help somewhat, but Biden or Harris will be in office until 2025 so we will have to suffer through the consequences of Biden' administration policies until spring 2025.


Yup. Suffer we will through Sleepy Joe and Co., just as we did Don the Con and Mike "It Might Look ike Sharia Law But It's What I Believe" Pence. I'm betting that the main difference is that Sleepy Joe and Co won't attempt a coup to overturn the election if they lose the vote in 2024.

There is another possibility. This inflation we are undergoing is actually transitory. It's not built into the economy through a wage price spiral.

The actions the Fed is taking to curb inflation may be enough to stay inflation to the point that only the memory of high gas prices remain by election time. Only those who have already made up their minds will go dark. Real undecided America may still have an open mind. I know, that's bad enough in most cases. It provides quite a bit of support, when we tally up the averages.

It's just, look at the social landscape, how many people are going to go right with the abortion issue the next thing on the list? You take away the economy, and you have that. It looks like a recipe for people to have a change of heart, but it's hard to tell. Because the abortion issue is a practical issue, just like the economy is. Except that having had to have one at some point in your past will always be with a person. They won't forget. They won't, likely, want anybody else not to have the option either. Whatever hardship economics brings is always subsumed to the next wave of euphoria, as we convince ourselves about the capitalist saga, again.

So, yeah, I think the right will fight hard to keep gas prices the story. They won't let up on the abortion thing, but they will try to time it so that people are distracted by gas prices, for sure. Plus, whatever else is going on with the tax structure and all that which hasn't even risen up to a level of importance enough to mention, but is pretty important too.
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3583
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Stopped at the Border.

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 08:09:00

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:.
I expect you will see screaming and real pain like never before soon enough. As the government can't see or admit what they are doing is wrong it will just keep snowballing into an avalanche.
$4.50 gas will seem like the good old days when it hits $9.00.


Hey, if folks had prepped right for peak oil with EVs and whatnot as some around here were discussing a decade or more ago, higher liquid fuel prices aren't much of an issue. Nice to have prepped in an effective way, more useful than learning how to build home made claymores to stop the starving hordes fleeing the urban areas, am I right or am I right?
You are right. I used to drive for a living, using my own car. Without some sort of fuel price stipend, I would have to think about going electric.

It still wouldn't have worked out for me in my old life because of where I lived. I rented. The place wasn't EV friendly. But, you know, many in my position for whom their living arrangement wasn't a disadvantage would see that. For them, it would be a reasonable investment. They would have an edge over the competition not usually seen. Any prolonged anti-EV message would only serve to prolong that imbalance.
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3583
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Stopped at the Border.

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 09:14:49

I see little chance of inflation being just transitory. It's root cause is the anti fossil fuel policies of the administration not interest rates so the Fed hiking up rates will be ineffective.
I don't see the abortion issue changing many races. In the red states pro life is the majority opinion so they will stay red and the blue states where pro choice is popular will stay blue.
So high gas ,food and energy prices will be the overriding issue and you can't escape the economy or forget it when you are running out of money before you run out of bills to pay.
As for going electric a few can do it but there are just not enough EVs out there and being produced for the majority to make the switch. The first eighteen months of F150 lightnings are already spoken for so if you put your order in now you might receive it sometime in 2025.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13775
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby randomguyonabike » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 09:42:14

The old boomers on this board are the most delusional I have ever seen.
randomguyonabike
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 76
Joined: Thu 15 Apr 2021, 13:51:53

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 10:02:09

randomguyonabike wrote:The old boomers on this board are the most delusional I have ever seen.

Remember now. Old age and treachery will defeat youth and talent every time. :)
Your the one that has her panties in a twist while we Boomers have been there done that and wore out the T shirts and will calmly come through this time as well.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13775
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 10:02:19

evilgenius wrote:So, yeah, I think the right will fight hard to keep gas prices the story. They won't let up on the abortion thing, but they will try to time it so that people are distracted by gas prices, for sure. Plus, whatever else is going on with the tax structure and all that which hasn't even risen up to a level of importance enough to mention, but is pretty important too.


I think whatever brand isn't in power uses whatever it has to label the other brand as a poor brand, in order to get back in power. They work with what they've got, and it works. Take what is irritating the voters in the here and now, and attach it to whomever is in charge. In the old days, the out of power brand would talk about how they would make it better, at least a little bit. Nowadays, with negative partisanship being so strong, it just doesn't matter. We are good, they are bad, look at these bad things in the world/economy/markets, and they are in charge and it is their fault! Vote US!

Unfortunate that it has become so mindless, but the beauty of it is that it works on otherwise intelligent people nowadays as well as the usual rabid masses.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 7740
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 10:19:45

vtsnowedin wrote:I see little chance of inflation being just transitory. It's root cause is the anti fossil fuel policies of the administration not interest rates so the Fed hiking up rates will be ineffective.


When prices were high in 2011-2015, there was no great increase in inflation, according to your theory if it is the underlying fuel prices driving it, then there would have been raging inflation there. There wasn't. There is no ipso facto here as you claim VT.

US policies didn't change US oil and gas development by a barrel. Covid did, and as of late, incentives to producers seem to be heavily involved. A snippet that you might be informed.

Monday, May 23, 2022 5:30 AM ET
By Ryan Dezember and Matt Grossman
Shale drillers have been hamstrung by pipeline constraints, rising prices for oil-field supplies and shortages of roughnecks and rigs. But there is another reason the highest oil and gas prices in years haven't tempted U.S. drillers to boost output: Their executives are no longer paid to.
Executives at firms including Pioneer Natural Resources Co., Occidental Petroleum Corp. and Range Resources Corp. were once encouraged by compensation plans to produce certain volumes of oil and gas, with little regard for the economics. After years of losses, investors demanded changes to how bonuses are formulated, pushing for more emphasis on profitability. Now, executives who were paid to pump are rewarded more for keeping costs down and returning cash to shareholders, securities filings show.
The shift has contributed to a big turnaround for energy stocks, which have surged through an otherwise down market. Energy shares led 2021's bull market and this year those included in the S&P 500 are up 46%, compared with an 18% decline in the broader index.
The focus on profitability over growth also helps explain drillers' muted response to the highest prices for oil and natural gas in more than a decade. Though U.S. oil and gas production has risen from lockdown lows, output remains below prepandemic levels even though crude prices have doubled since then, to about $113 a barrel, and natural gas has quadrupled, to more than $8 per million British thermal units.
"We're not hearing a lot of management teams talk about growing production or drilling new wells in a significant way," said Marcus McGregor, head of commodities research at money manager Conning. "They won't get paid to do so."


vtsnowedin wrote: As for going electric a few can do it but there are just not enough EVs out there and being produced for the majority to make the switch. The first eighteen months of F150 lightnings are already spoken for so if you put your order in now you might receive it sometime in 2025.


You are describing a situation where demand is no high supply can't keep up. Sure sounds like folks understand which way the wind is blowing, and the market is revealing it. Better late than never.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 7740
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 10:22:36

randomguyonabike wrote:The old boomers on this board are the most delusional I have ever seen.


Okay doomer.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 7740
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 06 Jun 2022, 20:12:14

Story today (yes on fox) where a woman rented a leaf EV and drove to Chicago from new Orleans and back. Had a terrible time finding charging stations and spent more time waiting for the car to charge then she did sleeping. Apparently no chargers were found convenient to a hotel to charge while she was sleeping.
To me it just shows the EV industry is still in it's infancy and the charging infrastructure has lots of room for improvement. In the meantime if you need to drive across country take an ICE car for the next few years, and lots of gas money.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13775
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 06 Jun 2022, 23:08:16

vtsnowedin wrote:Story today (yes on fox) where a woman rented a leaf EV and drove to Chicago from new Orleans and back. Had a terrible time finding charging stations and spent more time waiting for the car to charge then she did sleeping. Apparently no chargers were found convenient to a hotel to charge while she was sleeping.


I noticed the same story. Found it hysterical, people not understanding the performance envelope of their machinery. I once decided to ride a 50cc scooter across the state of Colorado. An absolutely wild blast, with about exactly the kind of problem you'd expect from a 40mph top speed 1.1 gallon fuel tank wobbly above 30mph on midget tires never designed to do the job device. Loved every minute of it. Took 2 days.

My Leaf does exactly what I bought it for, what it is capable of, has done it without fail or problem, and all because its owner knows exactly its performance envelope.

Right now the only EV I'd drive across the country is a Tesla, and know folks who have done it. I don't have an interest in even the small challenges that such an adventure might entail, it wouldn't be a blast, it would be inconvenience, even if a small one, for the kind of 1000 mile day adventures my ICE cages are now relegated to. The person in the story apparently missed the thinking part of her exercise.

vtsnowedin wrote: To me it just shows the EV industry is still in it's infancy and the charging infrastructure has lots of room for improvement. In the meantime if you need to drive across country take an ICE car for the next few years, and lots of gas money.


Well, at 45mpg I might spend gas money while caging cross country in an ICE machine, but compared to most others, it sure ain't "lots". Similar to what I was paying back in 2011-2015. Before Obama cured that problem and made America the world powerhouse in oil and natural gas production. :)
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 7740
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 07 Jun 2022, 01:01:10

vtsnowedin wrote:Story today (yes on fox) where a woman rented a leaf EV and drove to Chicago from new Orleans and back. Had a terrible time finding charging stations and spent more time waiting for the car to charge then she did sleeping. Apparently no chargers were found convenient to a hotel to charge while she was sleeping.
To me it just shows the EV industry is still in it's infancy and the charging infrastructure has lots of room for improvement. In the meantime if you need to drive across country take an ICE car for the next few years, and lots of gas money.


That story was originally appeared in the Wall Street Journal about a week ago. Its really attracted a lot of attention because its so funny!

To be fair she was driving some kind of el-cheapo EV with a wimpy battery that had a much lower range then they told her it would have. And when she was done she estimated she saved about $100 over what she would've paid if she'd be driving a gas powered car.

But the whole experience was so horrible she vowed to never take an EV on a long trip again. The chargers didn't work, or somebody else got there first, or they were locked up and only available from 12 to 5, or they charged much more slowly then they said they would, and her little EV didn't go as far as they said it would. Over and over again she'd charge for hours, only for her battery to say it was only 30% charged, so she'd start out again but they battery quickly lost charge so she had to find another charger which charged much more slowly then it should so her car was never fully charged so she had to find another charger.......etc. etc.

Image
Its MY turn! NO you fat slob its MY TURN...I was here first! No you weren't you lying skinny sloat....get your plug out of my face!....get you face out of my fist!....

On the bright side, her EV battery didn't catch on fire and burn up her car.

Cheers!
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 25518
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 10 Jun 2022, 05:33:43

Plantagenet wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Story today (yes on fox) where a woman rented a leaf EV and drove to Chicago from new Orleans and back. Had a terrible time finding charging stations and spent more time waiting for the car to charge then she did sleeping. Apparently no chargers were found convenient to a hotel to charge while she was sleeping.
To me it just shows the EV industry is still in it's infancy and the charging infrastructure has lots of room for improvement. In the meantime if you need to drive across country take an ICE car for the next few years, and lots of gas money.


That story was originally appeared in the Wall Street Journal about a week ago. Its really attracted a lot of attention because its so funny!

To be fair she was driving some kind of el-cheapo EV with a wimpy battery that had a much lower range then they told her it would have. And when she was done she estimated she saved about $100 over what she would've paid if she'd be driving a gas powered car.

But the whole experience was so horrible she vowed to never take an EV on a long trip again. The chargers didn't work, or somebody else got there first, or they were locked up and only available from 12 to 5, or they charged much more slowly then they said they would, and her little EV didn't go as far as they said it would. Over and over again she'd charge for hours, only for her battery to say it was only 30% charged, so she'd start out again but they battery quickly lost charge so she had to find another charger which charged much more slowly then it should so her car was never fully charged so she had to find another charger.......etc. etc.

Image
Its MY turn! NO you fat slob its MY TURN...I was here first! No you weren't you lying skinny sloat....get your plug out of my face!....get you face out of my fist!....

On the bright side, her EV battery didn't catch on fire and burn up her car.

Cheers!

For now I see most EV sales will be to two car families in suburbia where they can charge the car at home at night. (Hopefully at off peak rates). The one EV can be used for daily commutes that are well within the EVs range. They would use the other ICE car for any cross country trips to not have to worry about competing for charging space and time.
The average commuter travels 32 miles per day round trip so a car with just 160 miles actual range need be charged fully just once per work week but would in practice get topped off each night.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13775
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 10 Jun 2022, 08:52:04

vtsnowedin wrote: The average commuter travels 32 miles per day round trip so a car with just 160 miles actual range need be charged fully just once per work week but would in practice get topped off each night.


Well, the wife's commute is less than 32 miles per day round trip, so obviously we don't need 160 miles of actual range. 60 fully usable miles with another 10-15 in a pinch has worked out pretty well. The right tool for the job and all that, although the Leaf has only whetted her appetite for a Tesla.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 7740
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 10 Jun 2022, 09:26:03

You are that typical case I spoke of. I think with many models coming on line with 275 plus ranges per charge about 80% of commuters could do well with one in a two vehicle family. It will take quite a while to produce enough EVs to fill that demand.
There about 280 million vehicles in the US with about 14 million being replaced each year. This year about one million of those will be a new EV so they will need to increase production capacity by a factor of ten to make a real difference in gasoline and diesel consumption.
The question then arises are there enough lithium supplies not under Chinese control to supply that many batteries, or the other rare earth elements, or copper even?
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13775
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 10 Jun 2022, 11:20:57

vtsnowedin wrote:You are that typical case I spoke of. I think with many models coming on line with 275 plus ranges per charge about 80% of commuters could do well with one in a two vehicle family. It will take quite a while to produce enough EVs to fill that demand.


Indeed. Thank goodness market saturation curves teach us that disruptive technologies aren't linear in their growth pattern, otherwise Ford would get away with charging outrageous market adjustments forever.

vtsnowedin wrote: There about 280 million vehicles in the US with about 14 million being replaced each year. This year about one million of those will be a new EV so they will need to increase production capacity by a factor of ten to make a real difference in gasoline and diesel consumption.


Who cares about gas and diesel consumption? Peak oil, current or future, isn't an issue in the near term, the energy ignorant who couldn't figure out the future would be electric with the introduction of the Volt and Leaf should suffer the consequences of their ignorance.

vtsnowedin wrote: The question then arises are there enough lithium supplies not under Chinese control to supply that many batteries, or the other rare earth elements, or copper even?


It took me a long time to solve the peak oil/gas problem to my satisfaction, I don't have enough career left to solve the rare elements issue as well.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 7740
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 10 Jun 2022, 11:49:36

Who cares about gas and diesel consumption? Peak oil, current or future, isn't an issue in the near term, the energy ignorant who couldn't figure out the future would be electric with the introduction of the Volt and Leaf should suffer the consequences of their ignorance



Everybody including EV first adopters should and will care about gas and diesel prices and consumption because our economy still runs on it and will for at least another decade. There is no point in driving your EV to the market if there is no food or other items on the shelves or to a factory job if there is no energy to run the machines or provide heat for production processes that require it.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13775
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Previous

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests