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The Methane Thread pt. 2

Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 15 Feb 2022, 00:31:35

Huge methane cloud apparently leaking from a Louisiana pipeline (?) is visible from outer space

massive-methane-cloud-visible-space-leaks-above-louisiana

I once had a big argument with a friend over the importance of methane leaks. This was back when Obama was pushing NG power plants as clean energy and my friend believed the BS and maintained that methane was a "clean fuel" because it was totally consumed by combustion in electrical power plants, while I maintained methane was a "dirty fuel" because huge amounts of methane leaks from fracked drill sites, storage tanks and pipelines before the methane even gets to the electrical power plant and Methane is even worse for global warming then CO2.

Well........soo=prise soo-prise I am proven right once again. It would be boring being right so often if it wasn't for the warm fuzzy and pleasant feeling of satisfaction that comes from doing things right time after time.

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methane leaks from wells, pipelines and storage tanks are causing rapid rise in atmospheric methane.

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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Tue 15 Feb 2022, 12:59:06

I had our own experience with a methane leak. Earlier this winter our neighbour came over to report that gas was leaking at our gas meter. It was a wet day, the meter was right beside his driveway and he noticed gas bubbling from a connection at the meter. The leak was at a point before the meter so it would not have been apparent later on through a higher than normal gas consumption. The gas infrastructure in our neighbourhood would be around 40 years old so I would have to assume leaks are becoming more common and not all of them are going to be identified as easily as ours was.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Doly » Tue 15 Feb 2022, 15:40:03

Methane is even worse for global warming then CO2


Yes, but methane becomes CO2 fairly quickly. And as far as I know, the biggest amounts of methane generated in the world are not from methane leaks but from areas where plants or seaweed are rotting. In other words, as far as I know, methane leaks aren't a major contributor to global warming right now, though it could change.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 15 Feb 2022, 19:55:56

Doly wrote: as far as I know, methane leaks aren't a major contributor to global warming right now....


Actually human activities, including leaks from NG pipelines etc., are a major cause of the huge increase in atmospheric methane since the industrial revolution began.

Numerous scientific studies have found that about 30% of methane emissions are produced by natural processes occurring in wetlands, including ponds, lakes and rivers. But ca. 20% is produced by human agriculture, due to a combination of livestock, waste management and rice cultivation. AND activities related to oil, gas, and coal extraction release an additional 30%. The remainder of methane emissions come from minor sources such as wildfire, biomass burning, permafrost, termites, dams, and the ocean.

Add it up and over 50% of the current flux of methane into the atmosphere comes from human sources, with the largest human source coming from fossil fuels.

Major contributions to atmospheric methane come from fossil fuel leaks and agriculture

Thats why methane levels in the atmosphere are rising so rapidly right now.....methane concentrations were pretty stable for thousands of years until new and large anthropogenic methane sources from human use of NG and human agriculture started during the industrial revolution and have now greatly increased the amount of methane in the atmosphere.

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Large Methane leak from a storage site in California in 2016

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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Wed 16 Feb 2022, 10:52:01

CH4 released from cryosphere melting is not trivial. The above cited categories somehow manage to ignore this anthropogenic source. The wiki page on this subject invokes a 17 million ton emissions estimate in 2013. This is a gross underestimate for current conditions. It is highly likely that 10% of global emissions are from melting in the Arctic. This is a new emissions contribution and not part of the natural emissions from bogs, etc. It is increasing rapidly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 16 Feb 2022, 21:41:08

dissident wrote:CH4 released from cryosphere melting is not trivial. The above cited categories somehow manage to ignore this anthropogenic source.


Actually the above cited categories included "permafrost" so CH4 from cryospheric melting wasn't ignored in this discussion at all.

dissident wrote:It is highly likely that 10% of global emissions are from melting in the Arctic. This is a new emissions contribution and not part of the natural emissions from bogs, etc. It is increasing rapidly.


Exactly right. CH4 from permafrost represents a positive feedback that hasn't been included in past global climate models and has been completely ignored by the Paris Accords.

Its one of the reasons that we're doomed......global warming has already heated up the Arctic enough to destabilize huge areas of permafrost.

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Fire and Ice in central Alaska..... some of my friends out for a big day studying methane seeps trapped over the winter by frozen Arctic lakes

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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 21 Mar 2022, 11:55:24


November 2021: 1909.3 ppb
November 2020: 1891.7 ppb
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 21 Mar 2022, 11:56:34

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Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 21 Mar 2022, 17:57:14

For those still claiming modern levels are insignificant look at the climate record stretching back 800,000 years in the middle layer of this graph.

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Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Doly » Sun 27 Mar 2022, 14:30:28

CH4 from permafrost represents a positive feedback that hasn't been included in past global climate models and has been completely ignored by the Paris Accords.


I have actually downloaded a simplified climate model that can be run on a PC (C-ROADS, if anyone is interested). I specifically tested at what point methane feedback kicks in, according to the model. It has to get about five times current levels, if I remember correctly, before a methane feedback can kick in.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 27 Mar 2022, 14:42:25

The best of models running on the top of the line computers can't duplicate actual events if started at some previous time running forward to today. They are all just wild a$$ed guesses and are full of built in bias's inadvertently built into them by the "concerned scientists" that build such things not realizing the "concern" that prompts them to undertake the considerable task taints every decision or parameter they program into the system.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Mon 28 Mar 2022, 15:07:55

vtsnowedin wrote:The best of models running on the top of the line computers can't duplicate actual events if started at some previous time running forward to today. They are all just wild a$$ed guesses and are full of built in bias's inadvertently built into them by the "concerned scientists" that build such things not realizing the "concern" that prompts them to undertake the considerable task taints every decision or parameter they program into the system.


The "climate models are not accurate" argument is becoming less and less relevant as we see actual evidence that our climate is warming.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Doly » Mon 28 Mar 2022, 16:16:11

They are all just wild a$$ed guesses and are full of built in bias's inadvertently built into them by the "concerned scientists" that build such things not realizing the "concern" that prompts them to undertake the considerable task taints every decision or parameter they program into the system.


If you can build a better model, build it. If not, you're not qualified to criticise. Back-seat drivers are entirely unnecessary.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 28 Mar 2022, 17:54:06

You don't have to be able to build a car from scratch to have an opinion about another cars performance. Same thing with models. If models are irrelevant why do climate panickers keep pointing to them.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 28 Mar 2022, 23:49:02

So, CO2 spells doom in the long term and CH4 spells doom in the short term. Then, what's left? Only, now, but more accurately, yesterday.

Taking the atmospheric carbon fight to Methane
https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-crucial-opportunity-climate-fight#:~:text=Methane%20has%20more%20than%2080,warming%20in%20the%20near%20term.

"Methane has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years after it reaches the atmosphere. Even though CO2 has a longer-lasting effect, methane sets the pace for warming in the near term.

At least 25% of today’s warming is driven by methane from human actions. One of the largest methane sources is the oil and gas industry."
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 29 Mar 2022, 08:37:02

jedrider wrote:So, CO2 spells doom in the long term and CH4 spells doom in the short term. Then, what's left? Only, now, but more accurately, yesterday.

Taking the atmospheric carbon fight to Methane
https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-crucial-opportunity-climate-fight#:~:text=Methane%20has%20more%20than%2080,warming%20in%20the%20near%20term.

"Methane has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years after it reaches the atmosphere. Even though CO2 has a longer-lasting effect, methane sets the pace for warming in the near term.

At least 25% of today’s warming is driven by methane from human actions. One of the largest methane sources is the oil and gas industry."

We deal with the warming we surly are going to get by adapting to it.
Where we can slow emissions on a worldwide scale we should . Not just move them from one country to another. One good step would be a major pipeline infrastructure bill to replace leaky pipe lines with new along with capping any leaking well that can not be redirected int the collection system.
I see Exxon is proposing to use gas that would normally be flared from oil wells to generate electricity on site and mine bitcoin with it.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby careinke » Wed 30 Mar 2022, 05:21:04

Exxon, will be using the natural gas they currently flare off to mine Bitcoin. Win/Win/Win, good for Exxon, Good for Bitcoin Miners, Good for the environment. OK bring on the haters.

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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 08 Apr 2022, 21:27:05


December 2021: 1910.8 ppb
December 2020: 1892.2 ppb

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Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 05 May 2022, 21:28:25


January 2022: 1908.9 ppb
January 2021: 1890.7 ppb

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Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
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One equal temper of heroic hearts,
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 08 Jun 2022, 22:08:15


February 2022: 1908.5 ppb
February 2021: 1888.3 ppb

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Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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