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The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Tue 31 May 2022, 17:23:26

Pops wrote:
Revi wrote:Back to the death of suburbia. Do you think it's dying lately? Seems to be thriving. Due to Covid a lot of people went back to a car centric lifestyle somewhere outside of the cities. Will they go back to the cities? Hard to tell.

This guy has some ideas, although this paper is from last year...
https://bisoninterests.com/content/f/wh ... oil-demand

Interesting.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 31 May 2022, 17:49:12

Suburbia is going just fine in Oz. Brisbane, the city I left to move rural has a 26% annualized growth rate at the moment. The median price is now $645k and they are clearing scrub 50km from the CBD to build more and more estates. Madness really, but it's the psychology of previous investment at work and those at the Top are making squillions while those at the bottom aren't thinking beyond their next paycheck.

Where will it end? With a million people living cheek to jowl in homes with failing services and access to food is history is any guide. By that time I expect the only cars able to navigate the degenerating roads will be 4x4's, if they can get fuel for them. Of course we could crack Fusion power, or find some Di-lithium crystals, but otherwise those outer suburbs will be a wasteland in 100 years. Even the inner ones I suspect.

City: Angkor
Pop: approx 800,000

The sprawling tropical city, which covered 3,000 square kilometers (1,158 square miles), thrived from the 9th to the 15th centuries before being abandoned, possibly due to climate change.
https://news.artnet.com/art-world/angko ... on-1966958
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 31 May 2022, 18:01:31

Serial_Worrier wrote:
Pops wrote:
Revi wrote:Back to the death of suburbia. Do you think it's dying lately? Seems to be thriving. Due to Covid a lot of people went back to a car centric lifestyle somewhere outside of the cities. Will they go back to the cities? Hard to tell.

This guy has some ideas, although this paper is from last year...
https://bisoninterests.com/content/f/wh ... oil-demand

Interesting.


Here in Oz there was a big (relative) exodus from cities, especially southern ones. Anyone with the means and the idea bought homes out into the countryside to escape the madness of the city lockdowns. When I bought out here homes took around two years to sell, now they don't even put up forsale signs, they are sold the day they are listed. It's causing massive problems too because people who want to work in the area can't buy or rent for love nor money. Up in Bundaberg people are pitching tents on the side of the roads. These people aren't homeless in the traditional sense, many have good paying jobs, they just can't find a home. And at $100 a night motels are out of the question.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Tue 31 May 2022, 22:16:17

COVID concentration camps are one of the most insidious developments in the history of Western countries.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 31 May 2022, 23:49:05

Serial_Worrier wrote:COVID concentration camps are one of the most insidious developments in the history of Western countries.


The same was once said of Fedghettos because of peak oil. Interesting how the same basic idea when discredited in one context is recycled into another.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 Jun 2022, 16:38:22

Serial_Worrier wrote:COVID concentration camps are one of the most insidious developments in the history of Western countries.

Yes, yes, in reality the entire world is a giant series of conspiracy theories.

It's as obvious as, say, that the earth is flat. /s

Of course, whining and outright making shiite up is far easier than thinking about an issue. And you get to try to score political points as a bonus!
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 Jun 2022, 16:47:13

Whether the far right noise machine likes it or not, science and facts exist.

Living in cities can result in far less energy use per capita than living way out in the sticks, and having to deal with moving people and things over such distances per capita.

And if oil gets REALLY expensive and stays that way for years, in the modern era, things like buses using batteries or fuel cells (having one major hydrogen station to refuel the buses is practical for a city, vs. trying to put hydrogen thousands of places to power private FCEV cars).

People might not LIKE that, but the alternative of city living and taking bikes, electric buses, walking, etc. is FAR preferable to starving or going without enough food or meds to live in the country if oil and NG get very expensive over time.

Of course, if we can hang in there for a decade or two, then we can largely electrify the whole fleet with things like BEV's and PHEV's running on iron phosphate batteries (fairly cheap, highly durable, and becoming MUCH more energy dense over time). Everyone doesn't need a race car or 500 miles of range. People just need practical and effective vehicles that last and one can get around in without spending a fortune.

And naturally, the usual suspects, like the far right for political reasons, will always be in denial that electrification would help or is even possible, as they are champs at ignoring any evidence (which is mounting significantly over time re vehicle electrification being viable) they don't want to hear.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 Jun 2022, 16:58:35

theluckycountry wrote: Of course we could crack Fusion power, or find some Di-lithium crystals, but otherwise those outer suburbs will be a wasteland in 100 years. Even the inner ones I suspect.

https://news.artnet.com/art-world/angko ... on-1966958

First, we don't need fusion power as a "solution". All that would do is extend over-populating by virtue of Jevon's paradox, as humanity doesn't plan ahead re resource consumption vs. preservation any better than fruit flies.

With an electrified grid powered by solar, wind, backed up by batteries, more use of public transport, etc., suburbs don't have to become wastelands. But living standards and especially habits re wastefulness will have to change over time.

Living cheek to jowl does NOT seem at all fun. But good luck getting humans to procreate less, or agree on policies to encourage that, unless they are forced to by, say, mother nature killing of a large proportion of the masses over time, due to population induced (and obvious) consequences of endlessly growing the population as a "normal" behavior.

It still strikes me as odd how unusual it is for people, even in the "educated" first world to choose not to have children. Even with how obvious the downsides are for humanity, re continuing overpopulation. I suppose people just ignore what they don't want to hear, and can continue to blame "everyone else", as long as they get to do what they want in the short term.

Disclosure: I chose not to have kids -- I chose instead to help neices and nephews get educated, make more balanced decisions, etc. One doesn't have to "hate children" to choose not to have them in the modern era.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 02 Jun 2022, 17:19:55

Outcast_Searcher wrote:It still strikes me as odd how unusual it is for people, even in the "educated" first world to choose not to have children. Even with how obvious the downsides are for humanity, re continuing overpopulation. I suppose people just ignore what they don't want to hear, and can continue to blame "everyone else", as long as they get to do what they want in the short term.

Disclosure: I chose not to have kids -- I chose instead to help nieces and nephews get educated, make more balanced decisions, etc. One doesn't have to "hate children" to choose not to have them in the modern era.


My wife and I made the same choice. We both love children and are actively involved in helping a number of them, including nieces and nephews. This month I started taking the 13 year old son of a friend (parents divorced, father out of the picture, no family but his mom and younger brother) to Yoga classes. We are having a blast! According to recent polls, almost half (44%) of people under 40 in the USA, are planning to live childfree at this time, and the younger they are the higher the percentage.

Africa's population, on the other hand, is expected to grow by more than 3 billion in the next 80 years, according to the UN and World Bank. There is a very well established inverse relationship between the level of education, intelligence, and wealth a person has and the number of biological offspring they produce. Should we call this process Peak Human Evolution?
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