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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 10 May 2022, 16:12:17

There is a bottom coming for sure.
The Question is will it be next week or not until Biden is out of office in 2025?
Being more then a bit pessimistic I think 2025 is the more likely answer but it may fumble around up and down from week to week in the mean time. Plenty of time to pick off bargains to hold for 2030 in while not trying to hit the exact bottom.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby Doly » Wed 11 May 2022, 14:22:38

There is a bottom coming for sure.
The Question is will it be next week or not until Biden is out of office in 2025?


Timing the market is quite hard, but my guess would be near the point when NATO gets involved in the Ukraine war.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 11 May 2022, 15:08:49

Doly wrote:
There is a bottom coming for sure.
The Question is will it be next week or not until Biden is out of office in 2025?


Timing the market is quite hard, but my guess would be near the point when NATO gets involved in the Ukraine war.

It would not surprise me to see NATO send aircraft carrier groups into the Black sea and drive all Russian vessels back to port so that Ukrainian grain can be shipped out of Odessa to Africa and the middle east. It would be totally justifiable as it would avert the pending world food crisis and need not actually sink any Russian vessels as long as they wisely return to their home ports. The Ukrainian farmers in eastern Ukraine will have a difficult time harvesting around all the shell holes in their fields and will lose a lot of tires to shrapnel shards etc. Perhaps they will just abandon those fields until they can have all the duds and debris cleared with metal detectors. A year fallow would not hurt the soil in those fields anyway.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 11 May 2022, 21:38:45

Another down day and mine pretty much tracked the market so down 2.84%.
But Cathy Woods AArk fund was down 10.1% so I beat one of the highest paid managers on Wall street.
Buying opportunities await.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 12 May 2022, 07:25:53

The most likely scenario is that there will be a bottom before the Fed is done raising rates. When the smart money decides that they think the Fed is about to be done, then the rally will begin. But that is about as hard to time as anything else. I'm going to keep buying the entire time and hope that these average low prices will turn out profitably. I'm staying away from gimmicky things that might go up, cyclical levers at a time when cycles are interrupted, in favor of stocks that have a story that is pertinent to the world of tomorrow, EV's, alternative energy, AI and industrial automation.

I like to look at the ETF's too. Mostly, I like to see what they are into, for ideas. I cherry pick from them, avoiding those stocks I don't like. I sometimes see frilly stuff in those portfolios. I avoid those frilly stocks. They're not really frilly, but less understood by me what they do. It just means I have to know something about a company before I buy it. I don't take the word of the ETF that it is pertinent just because it is in their portfolio. Some of the frilly stocks are just harder to understand. They take more work that isn't worth doing unless they are cheaper relative to the price I can expect them to be at tomorrow, or so it seems.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 12 May 2022, 09:57:24

Well the producer price inflation figures released this AM are terrible as was Biden's speech at the farm yesterday. He is still in complete denial about what is causing this inflation and if he wants to know all he has to do is look in the mirror. If the Administration wanted to fix the economy all they would have to do is sit him down and have him rescind every executive he has signed and reverse every policy and regulation he and his minions have imposed. That would include the Keystone pipeline and completing the border wall.
In short "put it back the way it was" is all he needs to do.
It is probably too late to restart the Keystone pipeline but there are others that need to be built plus plants and facilities for LNG processing and shipment.
No chance of any of that happening considering the level of denial so I see a bad economy for another thirty months.
Today would be a buying day for me but as the futures are continuing down I think I'll just sit on the cash until I see a bottom then buy what I see as a bargain.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 12 May 2022, 12:30:05

Kick start some reactors would be a good start. Right after you kick start a conversion to HVDC transmission lines.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 12 May 2022, 13:55:06

Newfie wrote:Kick start some reactors would be a good start. Right after you kick start a conversion to HVDC transmission lines.

Already have one HVDC line running through Vermont. NIMBY in Vermont is strong however, so no new Nuclear reactors are likely to have a chance here anytime soon.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 12 May 2022, 19:30:29

I regained a bit of previous losses today. No rime or reason to which were up and which were down.I think stupid people are now moving the market with no clue as to the underling fundamentals.
This could get very nasty but I expect it correct itself long term.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 12 May 2022, 19:36:14

It is becoming more then annoying when I think of a word in a sentence that fits but my fingers forget to type it. You can spot one in the post above. My apologies and I will work to extend my tolerance to other typing skills limited posters.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby suxs » Fri 13 May 2022, 00:28:43

rescind every executive he has signed and reverse every policy and regulation he and his minions have imposed. That would include the Keystone pipeline and completing the border wall.


Trump had four years to build a wall AND he promised Mexico would pay for its construction. Neither promise was fulfilled, unsurprisingly. And how will a wall improve the economy exactly?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 13 May 2022, 05:31:49

suxs wrote:
rescind every executive he has signed and reverse every policy and regulation he and his minions have imposed. That would include the Keystone pipeline and completing the border wall.


Trump had four years to build a wall AND he promised Mexico would pay for its construction. Neither promise was fulfilled, unsurprisingly. And how will a wall improve the economy exactly?

Well it certainly would improve the economies of the workmen that construct it. Also stemming the flow of illegal immigration would take the stress off public services like hospitals.
That Trump did not complete the wall was due to Democrat party obstructionism.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 13 May 2022, 15:47:43

vtsnowedin wrote: That Trump did not complete the wall was due to Democrat party obstructionism.


Well..not quite...as this article on mexican congress critters scaling it along with a few illegals might indicate.

You would think if someone was going to build a wall to keep those rapists out who supposedly were going to pay for the wall, would build one that worked? Tough idiot move to blame on folks who might know better though....those folks being..like...everyone else?

Don't let your extreme negative partisanship interfere with a thumbs up for MAGA folks there VT, MAGA! Again!
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 13 May 2022, 15:53:24

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: That Trump did not complete the wall was due to Democrat party obstructionism.


Well..not quite...as this article on mexican congress critters scaling it along with a few illegals might indicate.

You would think if someone was going to build a wall to keep those rapists out who supposedly were going to pay for the wall, would build one that worked? Tough idiot move to blame on folks who might know better though....those folks being..like...everyone else?

Don't let your extreme negative partisanship interfere with a thumbs up for MAGA folks there VT, MAGA! Again!

So do you think everything is sweetness and light and plan to vote for a second Biden term as POTUS?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 13 May 2022, 17:49:29

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:Don't let your extreme negative partisanship interfere with a thumbs up for MAGA folks there VT, MAGA! Again!

So do you think everything is sweetness and light and plan to vote for a second Biden term as POTUS?


That is the second distinct time you've projected unto me the reverse partisanship you suffer from. Please, expand your mind a little VT, there are others out there, and they don't think in the hyper negative partisan way you do. Like me.

To answer your question, I examine the candidates put forward by the oligarches, examine their past records (even if none), examine the situation at the time and how their claimed (or better yet, inferred) behavior will improve the current circumstances for the country at large, hold my nose, and usually then pick the oligarch brand that seems the least likely to make the situation worse. Hoping they will improve the situation is usually just a hope and a dream, so minimizing damage is the usual path.

Also, one other quirk. I tend to vote differently, local versus national, and President versus congress. When voting for a Republican at the Presidential level, I tend to vote democrat for Congress and Senate. And vice versa. Follow a similar pattern at the state level. Not happy when the executive and legislative branches are run by the same brand, it tends to lead to real problems.

I imagine that while you are closet MAGA nationally, you love Bernie, right? :)
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 13 May 2022, 18:25:10

A better day today but probably not a trend as yet.
I bought a bit more RGR today (Strum Ruger) as it pays one of the highest dividends of anything I own( 5.12%) and has been driven down lately.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 13 May 2022, 18:40:03

vtsnowedin wrote:A better day today but probably not a trend as yet.
I bought a bit more RGR today (Strum Ruger) as it pays one of the highest dividends of anything I own( 5.12%) and has been driven down lately.


RGR is Ruger? I like it!! I own more than a couple, currently testing out a Security-9 as a CCW, it feels like a compact but has the same barrel length and nearly the same magazine capacity as my Sig Sauer M18, but Ruger is RGR...well I'll be darned....and here I thought those initials represented someone else. :) :)
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 13 May 2022, 19:33:57

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:A better day today but probably not a trend as yet.
I bought a bit more RGR today (Strum Ruger) as it pays one of the highest dividends of anything I own( 5.12%) and has been driven down lately.


RGR is Ruger? I like it!! I own more than a couple, currently testing out a Security-9 as a CCW, it feels like a compact but has the same barrel length and nearly the same magazine capacity as my Sig Sauer M18, but Ruger is RGR...well I'll be darned....and here I thought those initials represented someone else. :) :)

RGR is a local company for me and I have known several people that work there. It is not as good as it was when Bill was alive but still a solid company that pays a better then average dividend. And I have failed my M77 bolt action a lot more times then it has failed me.
I would take it to Africa and shoot anything the local laws would let me shoot with it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby careinke » Sat 14 May 2022, 00:01:23

I'm thinking todays rise is a bull trap and we are in for an extended bear market leading to a severe depression in 2023.

No country has ever profited from an extended war ---- Sun Tzu

Everyone should read the "Art of War" at least once per year. Your arguments will be better for it.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 14 May 2022, 15:06:31

vtsnowedin wrote:I regained a bit of previous losses today. No rime or reason to which were up and which were down.I think stupid people are now moving the market with no clue as to the underling fundamentals.


I don't believe 'people' have much to do with the market now, it's all algos. But the biggest force is the private pension funds, little day traders have an insignificant effect.

This story
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/13/massi ... odletting/
Is all about leverage but the list of imploded stocks down the bottom is quite ominous. It's looking a lot like the IT collapse of 2000.


Massive Stock Market Leverage Unwinds amid Brutal Bloodletting
by Wolf Richter • May 13, 2022 • 128 Comments
Margin debt started dropping a month before the Nasdaq went south, and it’s still dropping.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The total amount of leverage in the stock market is unknown and takes many forms. The only form that is tracked and reported on a monthly basis is margin debt. The other forms, such as Securities Based Lending (SBL) and hedge funds leveraged at the institutional level are not tracked. Not even banks and brokers that fund this leverage know how much total leverage their client has from all brokers combined, which became clear when the family office Archegos imploded in March 2021 and wiped out billions of dollars in capital at the prime brokers that had provided the leverage.

But margin debt – the tip of the iceberg and indicator of the direction of the overall stock market leverage – dropped by $27 billion in April from March, to $773 billion, according to Finra, which gets this data from its member brokers. Margin debt peaked in October last year at $936 billion and started falling in November. Over those six months, it has dropped by $163 billion, or by 17%. But leverage is still massive, and the unwind has a long way to go:

Not included in the margin debt data today is May. So far in May, the S&P 500, despite today’s rally, has dropped 6.2%, and the Nasdaq 8.3%, and many of the imploded stocks have gotten brutally crushed over those two weeks, including Coinbase, whose huge gigantic rally since Thursday morning didn’t amount to flyspeck compared to the devastating plunge in the prior two weeks and since its IPO and is barely visible on the stairway to heck since the IPO.

These kinds of selloffs trigger big bouts of forced selling amid margined stock jockeys that have concentrated on these stocks.

Hundreds of stocks have plunged by very large amounts, by 70%, and 80%, and even over 90% in a replay of the beginnings of the Dotcom Bust, only bigger and broader, and it’s going stock by stock, and it started in February last year, and seriously got going in November, and some of those I’ve captured in my special column Imploded Stocks.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is a sampling of well-known names amid the brutal bloodletting. The percentages are from their highs through the close on May 13:

Carvana: -90%
Vroom: -98%
Rivian: -85%
Snap: -70%
Pinterest: -76%
Netflix: -73%
Wayfair: -84%
Chewy: -78%
Shopify: -77%
And on and on it goes
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