Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

German Energiewende

Re: German Energiewende

Unread postby Doly » Thu 12 May 2022, 15:19:44

Alternatively, as renewables themselves are built using fossil fuels, the renewables go up in cost as well as the underlying fossil fuels, and the entire thing, for all its claims of cheaper, still costs the consumer more.


The main factor in the cost of renewable installations isn't energy, and in any case, there is no reason why the energy needed couldn't be renewable.

So...cheap....to who? Those who can afford it? Or those who can't?


Renewables aren't cheap to the consumer. And certainly some consumers have trouble already with paying their electricity bills. But the solution doesn't have to be lowering electricity bills. Reducing electricity usage also works.

I have no expectations that claims of lower costs of renewables will be passed on to consumers. I just see it claimed, and you appear to be defending the idea that they are indeed cheaper, and I am wondering...cheaper for who?


I'm defending that renewables are cheaper than they used to be, and that means cheaper for the installers.

You appear to have angled towards renewables are indeed cheaper, I have been asking if you have examples we can discuss, because I am having difficulty finding them.


Some info about renewable power generation costs declining over time:

https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRE ... DC605E0CCA
User avatar
Doly
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4146
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00

Re: German Energiewende

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 12 May 2022, 18:01:59

Doly wrote:
So...cheap....to who? Those who can afford it? Or those who can't?


Renewables aren't cheap to the consumer. And certainly some consumers have trouble already with paying their electricity bills. But the solution doesn't have to be lowering electricity bills. Reducing electricity usage also works.


Reducing useage works...as long as the per unit cost to the consumer doesn't rise. In which case, they use less, and it costs just as much as before. Or even more.

It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

Changing energy types works well sometimes too. When I switched cage fuels from liquids to electrons, I noticed it in my budget. A little bit with the first one, a whole lot more with the 2nd. With my recent addition of an honest to god designed in the classic American luxury sedan days, and upon filling it up with liquids for the first time, I was stunned at the cost. Ridiculous what gas costs nowadays.

Doly wrote:
You appear to have angled towards renewables are indeed cheaper, I have been asking if you have examples we can discuss, because I am having difficulty finding them.


Some info about renewable power generation costs declining over time:

https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRE ... DC605E0CCA


I read the highlights. Here is a goody.

global weighted-average levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) from new capacity additions of onshore wind declined by 13%, compared to 2019. Over the same period, the LCOE of concentrating solar power (CSP) fell by 16%, that of offshore wind fell by 9% and that of utility-scale solar photovoltaics (PV) by 7%.


Notice how it doesn't mention that those savings ever arrive in the pockets of the poor schmucks who pay for it all? "Global weighted-average levelized cost" means....what....exactly...to the people who pay the bill?
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 7446
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: German Energiewende

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 12 May 2022, 21:53:20

AdamB wrote:Isn't one of the big claims of renewables is that electrical generation coming from renewables is less expensive, not more?
Not until recently. Renewables have long been more expensive than fossil fuels. That's why they needed subsidies. We were willing to pay these higher costs for climate change/pollution reasons, not because renewables were cheaper. It was not until some of the more recent rapid drops in the price of renewables that they have started to become competitive with FFs(ignoring the intermittency issue). Go back and look at the levelized cost of renewables from just a few years ago. Here's the report from 2017 showing solar still more expensive than natural gas:

Code: Select all
Plant Type LCOE
Gas CC     $59
Solar PV   $74
Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2017

Now the 2022 report has renewables just about coming out even with natural gas. But don't forget the time lag for plants to become operational. The data given this year is for power plants entering service 5 years from now in 2027:

Estimated capacity-weighted levelized cost of electricity for new resources entering service in 2027
Levelized Costs of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2022

It is unrealistic to expect power plants that haven't even been built yet to set prices for electricity markets today. The renewable powerplants operating today were built back when costs were higher. And they make up a minority of the grid. Despite a large buildout of renewables the US grid is still predominately powered by FFs.

Further, the EIA warns that comparing non-dispatchable power sources like Solar PV and Wind to dispatchable power sources is problematic. They go into detailed reasons why this is so but don't expect your typical journalist to dig into the weeds like this when even the EIA doesn't give any kind of dollar value adjustment for dispatchable vs not-dispatchable. To be fair, their most recent report does make an effort to address this issue. They included a new category for Solar PV called "Solar Hybrid". That is Solar PV + 4 hours of battery storage. And surprise surprise, once you include the extra cost of the batteries solar is no longer cheaper and gas is the cheapest once again. Although a new solar hybrid installation is half the levelized cost of a new peaker plant.

Code: Select all
Plant Type   LCOE
Gas CC        $37
Solar Hybrid  $59
Gas Peaker   $124

In AEO2022, solar LCOE, on average, is lower than natural gas-fired combined-cycle (CC) LCOE in 2027. However, more CC generating capacity is installed than solar PV between 2025 and 2027. We project more CC capacity to be installed than solar PV capacity because the relative value of adding CC to the system is greater than for solar PV, which LCOE does not capture.
Levelized Costs of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2022
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4714
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Illinois

Previous

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests