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THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 18:03:26

Sure feels like winter here today. Last night we went from occasional frost to 22 F. Everything here is frozen badly.
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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 00:59:14

Yeah, La Nina will bring something more like a normal winter, and that will mean some new cold records will be set in various places. Generally, though, warm/cold record ratios, which should average out to about 1/1, have been more like 3 warm records broken for every cold record broken, iirc, and trending further in that direction.

La Nina's aren't what they used to be:

http://grist.org/briefly/la-nina-is-her ... on-record/

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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 13:51:29

Graph and temperature table at link below the quote.

21 December 2017

The Met Office global temperature forecast suggests that 2018 will be another very warm year globally but is unlikely to be a new record due to a moderate La Niña in the Pacific.

The Met Office forecasts the global average temperature for 2018 to be between 0.88 °C and 1.12 °C, with a central estimate of 1.00 °C, above the pre-industrial average period from 1850–1900. This corresponds to an increase of between 0.28 °C and 0.52 °C, and a central estimate of 0.40 °C above the 1981–2010 long term average of 14.3 °C.

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: “2018 will be very warm globally but is unlikely to exceed the recent record, set in 2016.”

The 2018 forecast is based on the key drivers of the global climate, but it doesn’t include unpredictable incidents such as a large volcanic eruption which would cause a temporary cooling. Professor Scaife added: “For example, Bali’s Mount Agung, which has recently experienced modest eruptions, could cause a temporary but significant drop in global temperatures if it undergoes a major eruption in the coming year.”

The Met Office's forecast for the 2017 global mean temperature agrees closely with the latest observations of global temperature so far this year. Data from Jan-Sep 2017 shows the global mean temperature is 1.05 °C above pre-industrial levels.

The forecast for 2018, including the range of uncertainties, again places the coming year amongst the warmest years on record: 16 of the 17 warmest years on record have now occurred since the year 2000.

Dr Doug Smith, Met Office research fellow, said: “For 2018, the global temperature will remain high, but the current La Niña conditions suggest that average temperatures will be around 0.1 degrees lower than we would otherwise expect in 2018.”


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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 13:56:30

On the other hand, if a La Niña year coincides with even more record heat days .......
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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 13:21:45

Even though it's officially La Nina, we just had the third hottest November on record, globally.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2666/nove ... on-record/
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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 04 Aug 2018, 18:22:51

The chance that El Niño conditions will be in place across the tropical Pacific by the fall is about 65%, and close to 70% by the winter, 


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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby WildRose » Tue 07 Aug 2018, 01:21:59

pstarr wrote:I forget; was it el nino or nina that was associated with the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge," the persistent region of atmospheric high pressure that occurred over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean.[1]


You mean "the Blob", pstarr?

I think it coincided with an El Nino but the explanation for that unprecedented warming in the northern Pacific had more to do with changing weather patterns and winds caused by loss of Arctic sea ice, as detailed in the information below:

"Looking at the study, it appears more likely now that the Northern Pacific Hot Blob of 2013-2014 was not a fluke, but instead an early knock-on effect of Arctic sea ice loss. A kind of event that will tend to become commonplace as the Arctic Ocean ice continues to melt. And that eventually, sooner rather than later, the heat build-up in the North Pacific will translate south to the Equator. First warming the Eastern Pacific in a more persistent El Nino type pattern and then spreading west (see image above).

As with the Blob, everything from the health of sea life to the intensity of extreme weather would be substantially impacted by such large scale changes. In other words, it looks like large scale losses of Arctic sea ice are enough to affect a broad and disruptive change in the global climate regime."

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/06/21/ ... permanent/
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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 07 Aug 2018, 09:05:43

The RRR is also a term associated with the mild weather of the SF Bay Area. I frequently see it maked on the local station weather charts.
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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 07 Aug 2018, 09:27:52

The RRR just means you are stuck in a given weather patter, sometimes one you like and sometimes one you don't. For most of the last century the RRR meant the north Pacific coast of North America from Oregon all the way to the islands of southeast Alaska have rain for months on end. However in recent time some winters it means Ohio is in the warm draft moving up from Texas diagonally and we stay warm for many weeks in Winter while in other times it has meant Ohio gets the cold Arctic air masses down from across Alberta and Minnesota plunging us into negative digits Fahrenheit for weeks on end. Neither situation is 'normal' winter weather around here. When these happen in summer you get heat waves or droughts. They have always happened occasionally as part of normal weather, but for the last decade they seem to happen a lot more as the Polar Jet Stream continues to weaken from melting Arctic sea ice.
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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 07 Aug 2018, 09:35:08

Subjectivist wrote:Maybe that El Papa you guys were talking about a while back will happen after all?

https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/sh03500i.html


Perhaps.
Abstract

During the warm early Pliocene (∼4.5 to 3.0 million years ago), the most recent interval with a climate warmer than today, the eastern Pacific thermocline was deep and the average west-to-east sea surface temperature difference across the equatorial Pacific was only 1.5 ± 0.9°C, much like it is during a modern El Niño event. Thus, the modern strong sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific is not a stable and permanent feature. Sustained El Niño-like conditions, including relatively weak zonal atmospheric (Walker) circulation, could be a consequence of, and play an important role in determining, global warmth.
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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 02 Oct 2018, 22:32:25

Temperature, winds, and cloudiness across the tropical Pacific were mostly neutral in August 2018, but they gave hints that support model forecasts of a transition to El Niño by later this fall (50-55% chance) or winter (65-70% chance). Below the ocean surface, a wave of warm water was spreading eastward, boosted by periods of weak trade winds.


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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 15 Feb 2019, 17:25:57

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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 19 Feb 2019, 16:54:21

Sure doesn't feel like it. Normally El Nino means a mild steady winter, but this year we have yo-yoed all over the thermometer.
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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 19 Sep 2019, 12:35:08

AI Application Able to Predict El Niño Events Up to 18 Months in Advance

https://phys.org/news/2019-09-deep-appl ... vents.html
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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 19 Sep 2019, 18:16:55

Subjectivist wrote:Maybe that El Papa you guys were talking about a wile back will happen after all?

https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/sh03500i.html


Permanent El Nino during the Pliocene: Sediment cores taken in the east and west equatorial Pacific show that the present-day surface temperature gradient existed only during the past 2 Myr or so, and was most likely not present during 2-5 Myr ago. This equatorial temperature gradient is eliminated during present-day El Nino events, and this was therefore termed the Pliocene "permanent El Nino". We suggested that this may have been caused by "atmospheric superrotation", which refers to westerly winds at the equator, moving at the same direction as the earth rotation, but at a faster rate. Specifically, with Brian Farrell, we suggested that such superrotation may have been caused by stronger/ reorganized atmospheric convective activity at the equator due to the warmer climate of the Pliocene. The stronger convective noise excites atmospheric Rossby waves which propagate poleward, inducing westerly momentum at the equator, weakening the equatorial easterlies and therefore causing a permanent El Nino [1]. With Nathan Arnold, we then proposed a resonance mechanism between the propagating Rossby waves and the induced westerlies, potentially leading to an abrupt transition to a superrotation state, and perhaps even to a permanent El Nino [2]. Finally, Nathan showed that warmer tropical sea surface temperature, indeed leads to stronger convective "Madden-Julian oscillations" in the tropics, which may excite enhanced Rossby waves [3].


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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 12 May 2022, 21:27:58

Synopsis: Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance).

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted during April across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Over the past month, the Niño index values decreased, with the latest weekly values ranging from -1.1°C to -1.5°C [Fig. 2], which are quite negative for this time of year. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) remained negative [Fig. 3], reflecting an extensive area of below-average temperatures from the surface to ~100m depth across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies dominated the equatorial Pacific. Convection remained significantly suppressed around the Date Line and was enhanced over the Philippines [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts borderline La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with increasing odds for La Niña into the fall [Fig. 6]. Similar to last month, the forecaster consensus predicts Niño-3.4 index values to weaken into the summer, but remaining below the threshold of La Niña (Niño-3.4 values equal to or less than -0.5°C). In the near-term, westerly wind anomalies are predicted for mid-late May which supports the weakening of below-average surface and subsurface oceanic temperatures in the coming months. However, much of the model guidance is also hinting at a re-strengthening of La Niña conditions again in the fall and upcoming winter. In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 June 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].


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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 15 May 2022, 06:56:54

La Nina better not continue. We are drowning down here on the east coast of Australia. I haven't had a motorbike out of the garage in a week! Damn uncivilized, I and won't go into the potholes and bridge damage. Brisbane had a major flood in 2011, the typical 37 year (average) flood. But we had another in February this year, and damn near another earlier this week! As it was there was major flooding through dozens of town centers, Brisbane dodged a bullet because the dam had been half emptied and that extra storage held back the water that would have come down through it. My town was all but cut off for 2 days this week.
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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 15 May 2022, 10:28:29

theluckycountry wrote: My town was all but cut off for 2 days this week.


Well, you know, as a lackey country within the monarchy, ask the Queen to get you moved to a real location, like New Zealand. Bunch of whiners, you colonies that don't have the cajones to free yourselves.
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