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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 30 Apr 2022, 10:29:44

AdamB wrote: How....touching.


Don't give into cynicism and despair, Adam.

There is a very very very slim chance that someday you'll actually manage to post something intelligent and then maybe somebody somewhere somehow someday will like one of your posts. Its claimed that if a million million monkeys randomly hammer away at typewriters, one of them will accidentally write something significant. The same principle applies to you. There is a chance that something you post... or maybe just a sentence or even a sentence fragment..... will be intelligent and interesting, perhaps, maybe, someday, if you just keep hammering away long enough.

Its not a very big chance, but anything can happen.

Image
Adam...don't lose hope. There is a very very very slim chance that someday you'll actually manage to post a hint of something intelligent and interesting

Cheers!
250 million thousand people have died of covid---Joe Biden
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Apr 2022, 17:21:51

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote: How....touching.


Don't give into cynicism and despair, Adam.


Never have Plant, so don't you worry. :)

So, where is your next CO2 emitting extravaganza off to? I liked your Forbidden City pixs, maybe when you get back home you can teach some classes in geography to the intelligentsia? Can you see Russia from your cabin?

Plantagenet wrote:
There is a very very very slim chance that someday you'll actually manage to post something intelligent and then maybe somebody somewhere somehow someday will like one of your posts.


Well, I'll just stick with the professional accolades that continue to accrue for knowing peak oil was a crock back in 2005, in lieu of cheers from the peanut gallery. You understand, a quality versus quantity kind of thing. Then again...maybe you wouldn't.

You have a good time on your next jet setting vacation though, and don't forget to pretend to care about CO2 emissions in general when you get back!
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 30 Apr 2022, 23:11:28

AdamB wrote: ....CO2 ...


Image
Bzzzzzzzzzt!

As usual you are instantly off topic and back to trolling and attacking other posters.....in fact that is the main thing you do at this site.

Did you ever wonder why you do this all the time?

Well.....I can help answer that question for you.

It turns out that constant trolling is not a good thing.....for the troll.

Check this interesting article out:

internet-trolls-are-narcissists-psychopaths-and-sadists

Based on your posts, I'd say you aren't the narcissist type of troll.....There doesn't seem to be anything positive or special or even slightly good about you for you to be narcissistic about.

And I don't think you are the sadist kind of troll.....your posts are too stupid and ill conceived to be hurtful to other people, so you'd be a flop as a sadist.

SO that leaves the psychopathic variety of troll.

Psychopathic trolls are typically immature, anti-social, disruptive, combative and antagonistic liars who are get a charge out of derailing things....and that fits you perfectly.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK....back to the thread topic.

The stock market is responding badly to the economic mismanagement of the Biden administration. In fact, the market is off to the worst start since 1939.

a-rough-4-months-for-stocks-s-p-500--worst-start-to-a-year-since-1939

The stock market often does a good job of predicting recessions, and the huge collapse in the US stock market would seem to be signaling a huge collapse is coming in the economy. And....right on schedule, the GDP shrank by over 1% in the first quarter.

One more quarter of shrinking GDP and we'll be in the Biden recession........

Its kind of amazing really....after only one year with Biden in office we've got the worst inflation in decades, the worst stock market collapse since 1939, the worst pandemic death toll since the 1918 influenza, and we're fighting a proxy war with Russia.

What comes next? Will Biden bring us the worst depression since 1939 later this year?????

Cheers!
250 million thousand people have died of covid---Joe Biden
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 May 2022, 14:14:20

Plantagenet wrote:As usual you are instantly off topic and back to trolling and attacking other posters.....in fact that is the main thing you do at this site.


Hey, if this place can tolerate right wing trolls, it can certainly withstand folks who knew the entire 2005 peak oil premise was a crock.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby Tuike » Tue 03 May 2022, 05:20:54

U.S. ten year bond interest is now around 3%. Where's the hype about debt crisis? Everyone died to coronavirus?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 03 May 2022, 06:17:33

Tuike wrote:U.S. ten year bond interest is now around 3%. Where's the hype about debt crisis? Everyone died to coronavirus?

With eight percent inflation that yields a negative five percent.
One way to look at it is that at those rates they will inflate away the value of the 30.4 trillion National debt at the rate of 5% a year or 1.5 trillion a year.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 05 May 2022, 07:27:12

On the day the Fed announced a fifty basis point rate increase, my stocks went up over five percent. That was cool.

It's earnings season. Not every stock I own is losing money. Some of this EV stuff is already paying off. LTHM, Livent, was up over twenty five percent, at one point. They crushed earnings, and said that they could see themselves making a whole lot more money. The lithium business appears to be good.

So, LTHM went from around $22 to about $28, in one day. The market is like that. There are plenty of days for giving up, and usually those few when you realize you shouldn't.

With this stock, it's mostly about making me feel better, as opposed to making immediate money. Livent is a long term holding for me. I think it will go to a hundo, or more. I don't want to sell during increases like this on the way. I fear selling into an up market that leaves me behind. If I try to time it, I could get caught holding the bag. I have energy and internet security stocks for timing purposes. Some of those did pretty well today too.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 05 May 2022, 07:45:33

I had a good day as well up 3.8%. That puts me back to where I was January 18th.but still down year to date. Futures this A.M. are not looking good but we will see.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby careinke » Thu 05 May 2022, 15:03:41

vtsnowedin wrote:I had a good day as well up 3.8%. That puts me back to where I was January 18th.but still down year to date. Futures this A.M. are not looking good but we will see.


Well today the markets do not feel nearly as rosy as they did yesterday. Kind of reminds me of 1974... Hope I'm wrong.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 06 May 2022, 07:23:37

After yesterday's close, two machine vision stocks are trading quite low. Cognex is the best machine vision stock I know of that trades in a place that doesn't cost me a fee to buy it and Ambarella has this system on a chip approach to machine vision. System on a chip is very good for vacuum cleaners, and anything else that has to make autonomous decisions. Cognex is down to around $60 and Ambarella is below $80. Both of these could drop more. I point them out as examples of how downturns provide opportunity. Machine vision is a necessary concept for the future. Its importance will rise. It can be easy to let the immediate downturn distract us from that. People will fear.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 06 May 2022, 21:38:49

The current market it not much to be enthusiastic over. I'm not going to sell anything I have as I think all of them will recover nicely in time but I am reducing the amount of new cash I am putting into my portfolio (tiny as it is) as inflation has reduced the amount of free cash I have after the bills are paid. So this month I'm going to just buy $200 worth of a stock with a long track record that pays a dividend above 4%. That narrows your choices considerably.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 06 May 2022, 21:56:08

vtsnowedin wrote:The current market it not much to be enthusiastic over. I'm not going to sell anything I have as I think all of them will recover nicely in time but I am reducing the amount of new cash I am putting into my portfolio (tiny as it is) as inflation has reduced the amount of free cash I have after the bills are paid. So this month I'm going to just buy $200 worth of a stock with a long track record that pays a dividend above 4%. That narrows your choices considerably.


Funny isn't it.........

In theory we should invest MORE when the market has gone down and prices are low and LESS when the market is going up and prices are high.

But its pretty hard to gin up much enthusiasm for buying stocks in a market as bad as this one is.

Personally, lately I've been buying a little biotech company with a promising new COVID treatment drug.

I was up 50% until a couple of weeks ago.....now down 10% after the big sell off of the last two weeks.

On the bright side I'm happy I'm not down even more......and I picked up some more at the current low prices.

The drug is up for an EUA at the CDC.....I'm hoping it will get the EUA by the end of May and then it will start an inexorable upward climb to immense profits.

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it will hopefully start an inexorable upward climb to immense profits

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 06 May 2022, 22:28:12

Hope springs eternal. A few of those medical stocks are going to grow through the roof. The question is which ones.
Other then marring my wife, now of 45 years, the best decision I have made has been buy Moderna at $63 a share. Perhaps the worst was not selling it all when it hit $490 a share. It closed at $134 today.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 May 2022, 23:44:00

Today I am looking for stocks where the company has products people will not do without and have a history of paying good dividends. Inflation has already reduced the free cash I can dump into stocks but I am investing what I can plus all dividends received back into stocks that pay above 4% dividend. Sturm Ruger (RGR) is one of my favorites paying 4.99%.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 08 May 2022, 01:45:32

vtsnowedin wrote:Hope springs eternal. A few of those medical stocks are going to grow through the roof. The question is which ones.
Other then marring my wife, now of 45 years, the best decision I have made has been buy Moderna at $63 a share. Perhaps the worst was not selling it all when it hit $490 a share. It closed at $134 today.


I feel your pain.

Image

I've got Moderna in my portfolio too, and I got in a bit higher then you.

I'm still pretty upbeat on Moderna. When you look at Moderna's financials its price has fallen so much while earning so much money that its got a PE ratio under 5. Moderna could quadruple from here and still only have a PE of about 20 and 20 used to be really low for an exciting biotech stock.......

I admit I bought a bit more Modern a couple of weeks ago when it was even lower then it is now. I'm definitely hanging on to my Moderna stock no matter what. Moderna's dual covid vaccine will be out by this September and their amazing new cancer vaccine should be on the market by this time next year. IMHO the cash registers will be going KA-CHING!!! at Moderna and the stock will be going up, as long as Biden's stupid policies don't trigger stagflation and push the USA into a deep recession.

Cheers!
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Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 08 May 2022, 07:43:43

Yes Moderna is a one trick pony right now with just the one product on sale. But let that cancer drug get approved or one of the others they are working on and their fortunes will soar. If stagflation and recession does hold them back a bit they will just be following the crowd.
If a new drug is good enough it might be stagflation proof.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 09 May 2022, 21:25:41

Well the market continues to go down and the pundits are beginning to talk about "complication " where both amateur investors and overpaid retirement fund managers all throw in the towel and their selling drives the market to far below it's real value. So a buying opportunity awaits where you can buy good stocks at 25 to 50% off what you could buy them for last Christmas.
Only trick is picking stocks that will do the best after the crash.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby careinke » Tue 10 May 2022, 04:49:05

vtsnowedin wrote:Well the market continues to go down and the pundits are beginning to talk about "complication " where both amateur investors and overpaid retirement fund managers all throw in the towel and their selling drives the market to far below it's real value. So a buying opportunity awaits where you can buy good stocks at 25 to 50% off what you could buy them for last Christmas.
Only trick is picking stocks that will do the best after the crash.


I think you were hacked by your spell checker. I believe the word you meant to put in quotes was "capitulation" which fits in with the rest of your narrative.

I tend to agree, this is a very fast, very broad, and complicated crash. People are in a panic and selling to reduce their losses. The dollar is getting stronger and stronger against all other currencies because their countries are in even worse economic shape than ours. The odds are increasing for a global recession/depression.

Once you sell, what do you do with the cash? Treasuries? have doubled to 3% but inflation is 8% so you lose 5% a year. (I'm bring optimistic). Buy gold?, it hasn't even kept up with the market, crypto, or inflation. Keep it in cash? Your dollar will be worth 85 cents next year. Spend it????

The crypto markets were in total capitulation mode today. The streets were covered in blood today, including some of my own blood. Three of my limit buy orders were triggered today. :-D

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 10 May 2022, 07:37:18

Mostly, I am in buy mode. I am thinking in terms of lowering my average cost per share. I don't know if every stock I am interested in will do well after things get better, but that's why I diversify. I try to handle that risk there, not by holding back my money and not buying now.

So, my biggest problem is making sure I spread what little I have to invest right now around. I don't want to insist on one stock, except for very good reasons, over another one.

I like to step back every once in a while and look at the balance of my portfolio. One division it has is between the top positions and the bottom, or developing, ones. The top positions have been around a little while. I saw a reason to own them sooner. That doesn't mean those reasons outweigh the reasons I have for owning a developing stock, though. The challenge is to keep developing while still adding to the old positions. I find myself tempted to only add to the ones I have the most confidence in. But we diversify because we can't know.

I find this way of thinking important with tech. I am into industrial automation and EV stocks. I keep finding out about companies that do things. Just because I only just found out about them doesn't mean they aren't potentially more viable than some of the companies I already own. It helps when everything is on sale.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 10 May 2022, 10:53:17

Yes "capitulation" was the word I was going for.
Things are going a bit better today <So far. >.
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