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Heat Waves 2022

Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby Tuike » Fri 29 Apr 2022, 16:06:53

Pakistan, India reel under intense heat wave -reuters
"South Asia, particularly India and Pakistan are faced with what has been a record-breaking heatwave. It started in early April and continues to leave the people gasping in whatever shade they find," Rehman said in a statement. Temperatures were predicted to rise by 6 to 8 degrees Celsius above average temperatures after the hottest March on record since 1961, she said.
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby Tuike » Mon 02 May 2022, 15:56:28

‘We are living in hell’: Pakistan and India suffer extreme spring heatwaves -guardian
Sherry Rehman, Pakistan’s minister for climate change, told the Guardian that the country was facing an “existential crisis” as climate emergencies were being felt from the north to south of the country.
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby Tuike » Wed 04 May 2022, 10:34:57

India and Pakistan heatwave is 'testing the limits of human survivability,' expert says -cnn
"Children who have to traveled to school, many of them are getting nosebleeds, they can't tolerate this heatwave," West Bengal's Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee told reporters last week.

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Wasn't it Guy McPherson person who said we'll all drop dead in a few years? 8O
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 04 May 2022, 13:45:31

Tuike wrote:Wasn't it Guy McPherson person who said we'll all drop dead in a few years? 8O


Yeah, but he said it in 2008. And defined "a few years" as about 6. You being alive to suppose the question proves that he had something else in mind when selling the idea.
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 04 May 2022, 16:55:30

AdamB wrote:
Tuike wrote:Wasn't it Guy McPherson person who said we'll all drop dead in a few years? 8O


Yeah, but he said it in 2008. And defined "a few years" as about 6. You being alive to suppose the question proves that he had something else in mind when selling the idea.


Yes, he is continually wrong. One cannot predict a non-linear event. Even Yogi Berra couldn't.
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 04 May 2022, 17:08:37

Kinda related….maybe.

Last week there was a Tropical Wave crossing the Caribbean and heading NW.

Tropical Wave
An inverted trough (an elongated area of relatively low pressure) or cyclonic curvature maximum moving east to west across the tropics. These can lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. Also known as an easterly wave.



We had to cross it. Our weather router advised us it was about to experience a “energy impulse” N of 22N shortly after Noon Sunday. In short, get your ass South NOW. Monday evening we had a clear sky but could see a long line of cumulus clouds, and as the sun set the fireworks were spectacular. Truly a wonderful image in your rear view mirror. The sea was rough enough with considerable swell from a storm NE of Bermuda and local chop. Uncomfortable, especially for my Wife who choose this instant to get some mild food poisoning.

I have never before heard of this “energy impulse” thing and can. Ot find a google reference. Glad we saw but did not experience it.

Perhaps related to climate change heat increases????
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 05 May 2022, 10:03:04

Newfie wrote:We had to cross it. Our weather router advised us it was about to experience a “energy impulse” N of 22N shortly after Noon Sunday. In short, get your ass South NOW. Monday evening we had a clear sky but could see a long line of cumulus clouds, and as the sun set the fireworks were spectacular. Truly a wonderful image in your rear view mirror. The sea was rough enough with considerable swell from a storm NE of Bermuda and local chop. Uncomfortable, especially for my Wife who choose this instant to get some mild food poisoning.

I have never before heard of this “energy impulse” thing and can. Ot find a google reference. Glad we saw but did not experience it.


That entire story just sounds cool. I think we humans can define our lives by those moments of danger dodged rather than the sedate passage of ho-hum.
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 05 May 2022, 10:14:43

jedrider wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Tuike wrote:Wasn't it Guy McPherson person who said we'll all drop dead in a few years? 8O


Yeah, but he said it in 2008. And defined "a few years" as about 6. You being alive to suppose the question proves that he had something else in mind when selling the idea.


Yes, he is continually wrong. One cannot predict a non-linear event. Even Yogi Berra couldn't.


Amusing that you and I and Yogi Berra know this, but a PhD ecologist seems to have missed that day in the 4th grade where it was taught and attempted it anyway. I could make an argument that the more educated someone gets, the higher the likelihood that they will discount the old truisms that have worked since time immemorial. One explanation anyway, the other is that when someone is trained in one area doesn't make them smart, or aware of the knowledge contained within other areas of expertise and therefore say and do really stupid things. Think...Colin Campbell and engineering and economics, Hirsch and geology, Ruppert and Savinar everything, and and so on and so forth.
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby Doly » Thu 05 May 2022, 16:09:02

Our weather router advised us it was about to experience a “energy impulse” N of 22N shortly after Noon Sunday.


Considering how many typos in your post, I'm not inclined to believe your claim without independent verification that weather services are talking about things like "energy impulse".
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 06 May 2022, 08:44:53

Doly wrote:
Our weather router advised us it was about to experience a “energy impulse” N of 22N shortly after Noon Sunday.


Considering how many typos in your post, I'm not inclined to believe your claim without independent verification that weather services are talking about things like "energy impulse".


Oh come'on, this is a peak oil forum, having had the entire modern generation of peak oilers discredited by their own words, it isn't reasonable to hold folks to a strict clinical interpretation of much of anything. What's wrong with cool stories in general? I have no doubt that none of us are exactly as we seem around here, and Newfie has been pretty consistent with his boat stories, hasn't demonstrated any tendencies towards ignorance or foolishness, it seems reasonable he ran into a storm, managed to stay out of it, and got to see a great light show. Regardless of the exact language he used to describe it.

Independent verification, please, how about we demand death certificates proving claims of a husband having passed away, or employment records when someone claims they worked on a road crew in Vermont, or lists of published works from anyone claiming to be a scientist, let alone independent researcher.
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby mousepad » Fri 06 May 2022, 08:51:15

AdamB wrote:
Doly wrote:
Our weather router advised us it was about to experience a “energy impulse” N of 22N shortly after Noon Sunday.


Considering how many typos in your post, I'm not inclined to believe your claim without independent verification that weather services are talking about things like "energy impulse".


Oh come'on, this is a peak oil forum, having had the entire modern generation of peak oilers discredited by their own words, it isn't reasonable to hold folks to a strict clinical interpretation of much of anything. What's wrong with cool stories in general? I have no doubt that none of us are exactly as we seem around here, and Newfie has been pretty consistent with his boat stories, hasn't demonstrated any tendencies towards ignorance or foolishness, it seems reasonable he ran into a storm, managed to stay out of it, and got to see a great light show. Regardless of the exact language he used to describe it.

Independent verification, please, how about we demand death certificates proving claims of a husband having passed away, or employment records when someone claims they worked on a road crew in Vermont, or lists of published works from anyone claiming to be a scientist, let alone independent researcher.


Bravo.
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 06 May 2022, 09:04:02

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Doly wrote:
Our weather router advised us it was about to experience a “energy impulse” N of 22N shortly after Noon Sunday.


Considering how many typos in your post, I'm not inclined to believe your claim without independent verification that weather services are talking about things like "energy impulse".


Oh come'on, this is a peak oil forum, having had the entire modern generation of peak oilers discredited by their own words, it isn't reasonable to hold folks to a strict clinical interpretation of much of anything. What's wrong with cool stories in general? I have no doubt that none of us are exactly as we seem around here, and Newfie has been pretty consistent with his boat stories, hasn't demonstrated any tendencies towards ignorance or foolishness, it seems reasonable he ran into a storm, managed to stay out of it, and got to see a great light show. Regardless of the exact language he used to describe it.

Independent verification, please, how about we demand death certificates proving claims of a husband having passed away, or employment records when someone claims they worked on a road crew in Vermont, or lists of published works from anyone claiming to be a scientist, let alone independent researcher.


Bravo.


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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby Doly » Fri 06 May 2022, 14:03:48

Oh come'on, this is a peak oil forum, having had the entire modern generation of peak oilers discredited by their own words, it isn't reasonable to hold folks to a strict clinical interpretation of much of anything.


I may have been discredited, but I don't happen to think it was my own words that discredited me. I think it was other people's words, used against me. And whether I deserve any credit or not is neither here nor there. If it happened to me, I assume it can happen to others.

What's wrong with cool stories in general?


I don't think cool stories in general are a problem. I think some cool stories are a problem, though.

Independent verification, please, how about we demand death certificates proving claims of a husband having passed away, or employment records when someone claims they worked on a road crew in Vermont, or lists of published works from anyone claiming to be a scientist, let alone independent researcher.


If you want proof of any of my claims for any reason, go ahead and ask.
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 06 May 2022, 16:24:34

A good thread, but devolving it into a squabble it seems :lol:

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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 06 May 2022, 16:35:08

It's certainly turning into an oven over there, I can only imagine how many millions of wealthier people are planning to emigrate out of the place. I'm pretty sure the UK still has a policy that allows inhabitants of the old Empires' possessions to move back to Blighty if they wish, if they can afford it. There were many aspects of the corona virus I liked and one was the shutting down of Australia's borders, to EVERYONE. If only it would stay that way...

I don't even want to think about India, but here it's 17-deg-C outside and the sun hasn't even come over the horizon yet. We're in the last month of Autumn and by rights it should be 10 or 12 outside. We have a rain system coming through that promises to drop six months worth in a few days, that on top of unprecedented rainfalls already this year! It's the rain system keeping the temps up, the whole East coast is saturated. This La Nina pattern is drowning us, just as it is drying out the West coast of the USA.
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 06 May 2022, 20:03:25

Doly wrote:
Oh come'on, this is a peak oil forum, having had the entire modern generation of peak oilers discredited by their own words, it isn't reasonable to hold folks to a strict clinical interpretation of much of anything.


I may have been discredited, but I don't happen to think it was my own words that discredited me.


Well, not being familiar with your posting history from way back when, I can't say you've been discredited either. Do you have a history of predictions somewhere that you want to summarize? I've got no beef with people being wrong, all models are wrong, some are useful, but I am ALWAYS interested in when people figured out WHY they were wrong, and then course corrected. That is the true mark of someone doing it right.

Doly wrote:
What's wrong with cool stories in general?

I don't think cool stories in general are a problem. I think some cool stories are a problem, though.


What was the prolem with Newfie's? Wrong verbiage for severe weather?



Doly wrote:
Independent verification, please, how about we demand death certificates proving claims of a husband having passed away, or employment records when someone claims they worked on a road crew in Vermont, or lists of published works from anyone claiming to be a scientist, let alone independent researcher.

If you want proof of any of my claims for any reason, go ahead and ask.


I was being sarcastic because the response to Newfie seemed a bit over the top.

However, now you've got me interested in what your opinions/results/analysis might have been years ago, and how they have changed, and why. Along with changes in results as well. I would be happy to share mine as well, because this learning as you go, with resulting changes in expected outcomes, is something I've been through as well.
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby Doly » Sat 07 May 2022, 17:56:55

Do you have a history of predictions somewhere that you want to summarize?


I don't usually make predictions about things that are going to happen, rather predictions about things that I don't think are going to happen because I don't think they're possible.

I have said (and still maintain) that I don't think economic growth can happen after peak oil, and in fact I expect it to stop before reaching peak oil (between five to ten years before).

What was the prolem with Newfie's? Wrong verbiage for severe weather?


Too many typos for my liking.

However, now you've got me interested in what your opinions/results/analysis might have been years ago, and how they have changed, and why.


My LTG analysis hasn't changed, because I haven't updated it. I've thought about updating it, but I no longer think that there would be much point in publishing an update, so I can't muster the effort of going through the serious revisions that I'd like to do. The energy side I'm still fairly happy with, but I know the population side needs revising, I'd like to include a calculation for the effect of potential wars, describe people with two variables (one for the median person, another for the dispersion, because rich and poor people behave differently) and also go through some serious pruning of the model, taking away everything that doesn't need to be in it. (I now think that the simpler the model, the more likely to be accurate, if it could be properly calibrated, which is a big if). At this point I don't have an actual model, it's more like a mental model held together with back-of-the-envelope calculations, and because I haven't gone through the process of trying to put things together, I'm well aware it could have plenty of holes you could drive oil tankers through.

Actually, the model should probably be rebuilt from scratch, but that would kind of defeat the purpose I had in using the LTG model originally, which was using something that I hoped other people would be already familiar with... except that it turned out that people are familiar with the book, not the model. So that effectively leaves me trying to argue that my model is a good idea, when I have no credentials at all, and the LTG model itself looks like a cautionary tale about something that never took off successfully. Not to mention that, the way things are looking, we may be well past the point that such a model might be useful as an inspiration to anyone. The way I see things now, either somebody somewhere (maybe China) has already a good equivalent of what I've been thinking about, but it's not been talked about, so there is no point in me attempting to do it, or, if it hasn't been done, we are probably so screwed that we need to be thinking about lifeboats rather than modelling.
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 07 May 2022, 18:31:30

Doly wrote:Actually, the model should probably be rebuilt from scratch, but that would kind of defeat the purpose I had in using the LTG model originally, which was using something that I hoped other people would be already familiar with... except that it turned out that people are familiar with the book, not the model. So that effectively leaves me trying to argue that my model is a good idea, when I have no credentials at all, and the LTG model itself looks like a cautionary tale about something that never took off successfully.


I had the opportunity to do one from scratch, and "success" was defined more in its ability to handle the technical and economic aspects properly than what might look good, or be someone else''s good idea. No worries at all about what other folks thought about it, beyond the researchers and peer review boards who periodically checked in to see how it was going, the logic and data involved, etc etc.

Doly wrote:Not to mention that, the way things are looking, we may be well past the point that such a model might be useful as an inspiration to anyone.


I presumed that from the outset with mine, no intent to be inspirational. More like, supremely informative.

Doly wrote: The way I see things now, either somebody somewhere (maybe China) has already a good equivalent of what I've been thinking about, but it's not been talked about, so there is no point in me attempting to do it, or, if it hasn't been done, we are probably so screwed that we need to be thinking about lifeboats rather than modelling.


Mike Ruppert beat you to the lifeboat game (and I doubt the idea was original to him either, he didn't do original) but it isn't particularly original anyway. I wonder if the 1970's Earth Day folks weren't already enunciating the same idea that far back?
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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 07 May 2022, 18:31:45

Doly wrote:.... we are probably so screwed that we need to be thinking about lifeboats rather than modelling.


Even lifeboats won't help.......there is no where else to go. This is the only planet we've got.

People like Bezos and Elon Musk say if things get really bad on Earth we should have colonies on Mars.

I have no problem with that.....I'd like to see colonies on Mars, and then colonies in low earth orbit, in the asteroid belt, on the moons of Jupiter or anywhere else it could be managed.

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Lets start colonies on Mars, and then colonies on the moon and in low earth orbit, then in the asteroid belt, and then on the moons of Jupiter

But even if we have colonies on Mars and a federation of colonies in the asteroids, it won't change the deleterious effects on global warming here on earth.

Its getting really bad........how many years will be until the heat waves in places like Pakistan and India, when combined with the high humidity, start killing large numbers of people.

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Re: Heat Waves 2022

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 08 May 2022, 00:53:02

Doly wrote:The way I see things now, either somebody somewhere (maybe China) has already a good equivalent of what I've been thinking about, but it's not been talked about, so there is no point in me attempting to do it, or, if it hasn't been done, we are probably so screwed that we need to be thinking about lifeboats rather than modelling.


I've been thinking in terms of lifeboats for decades. We were always screwed; it was only a matter of when, not if. We can't fight human nature. Humans evolved to breed and consume as much as possible without any regard for the long term consequences of our actions.
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