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CO2 Clock

Re: CO2 Clock

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 28 Apr 2022, 17:37:40

421-ppm now, and 350.org is still begging for donations, because once you're on a good racket...
Their webpage Leader is "Stop fossil fuels Build 100% renewables. There is so much delusion in that one statement alone, but it's what 98% of the population believe can happen so it's fit to purpose.
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Re: CO2 Clock

Unread postby Doly » Sun 01 May 2022, 09:44:09

421-ppm now, and 350.org is still begging for donations, because once you're on a good racket...


To be fair, when 350.org started it was already above 350ppm, and they made no secret that they were aiming for something unrealistic. Their justification was to say that they were demanding projects to extract CO2 from the atmosphere, as if that was easy.

Their webpage Leader is "Stop fossil fuels Build 100% renewables. There is so much delusion in that one statement alone, but it's what 98% of the population believe can happen so it's fit to purpose.


From a purely technical perspective, making a reasonably smooth transition to 100% renewables was probably possible up to about 10 years ago. I'm guesstimating, based on my LTG modelling.

The main issue was never solving the technical problem (even though it would have been a challenge), but that in order to actually do the things needed, it would have been necessary to give up on a big chunk of the main tenets of our current economic system. Which will be given up fairly soon anyway, because our current economic system is unsustainable. But in the meantime, the chances of making a smooth energy transition have vanished, we're heading to WWIII, and we're dealing with several public health emergencies at once. Interesting times indeed.
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Re: CO2 Clock

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 May 2022, 14:11:56

Doly wrote:The main issue was never solving the technical problem (even though it would have been a challenge), but that in order to actually do the things needed, it would have been necessary to give up on a big chunk of the main tenets of our current economic system. Which will be given up fairly soon anyway, because our current economic system is unsustainable.


The caveat you mention, with respect to never solving the technical problem, would have applied back then, same as now. Making the technical aspect, even a decade ago, irrelevant.

Humans just don't want to do what they need to do, preferring to do what they like to do instead.
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Re: CO2 Clock

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 01 May 2022, 19:07:22

Doly wrote:
From a purely technical perspective, making a reasonably smooth transition to 100% renewables was probably possible up to about 10 years ago. I'm guesstimating, based on my LTG modelling.


Yes well the problem with renewables Doly, is that they are not, Renewable, they are in all cases, Rebuildable. The great delusion put forward decades ago was that if we built enough of them they would supply the energy to Rebuild themselves, and run the complex society we have come to depend on. I have read the studies, on solar, wind, they are all the same in that they quote everything in dollar terms not in units of energy, and so a solar farm built from cheap fossil fuels appears to generate a lot of energy over a 20 year period. But if you were to try and build the same farm, using only Rebuildable generated energy, you would never get there.

Electricity is not oil. And it's well past time for people to figure that one out. In the decades ahead everything outside of a few wealthy enclaves is going to grind to a halt and people who haven't made the right decisions and taken the appropriate actions are in for a world of pain. But everyone is just carrying on like it's the 20th century, they are trusting the government and the smart people in the universities to look after their future for them. Good luck with that.
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Re: CO2 Clock

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 01 May 2022, 20:31:31

Doly wrote:From a purely technical perspective, making a reasonably smooth transition to 100% renewables was probably possible up to about 10 years ago. I'm guesstimating, based on my LTG modelling.


Yup. Technology for alternative energy was rapidly improving 10 years ago. It seemed like the transition from fossil fuels to non-carbon energy might actually happen. All the world needed was a decision by the world's leaders to mandate a change to alternative energy as the only way to reduce CO2 emissions.

And the way to get the world's leaders to drive the change to alternative energy is to have them locked into a UN climate treaty that REQUIRED CO2 emission reductions. Thats why I also think the 10 year period leading up to the Paris Accords was a critical time in the climate change story. There was still a chance that something might go right.....until it didn't.

The world had the horrible example of the Kyoto Accords to show them that voluntary pledges to reduce carbon emissions meant nothing. The only chance the world had left to avoid horrific amounts of global warming was to craft a UN climate Treaty that mandated CO2 reductions rather then relying on voluntary pledges.

And the world actually managed to write a pretty good climate treaty which included mandatory CO2 reductions at the Bali meeting. That was the draft treaty that was going to be signed by the world's leaders when they assembled at the Copenhagen COP meeting in 2009. Unfortunately Obama got into a tiff with the Chinese leader at Copenhagen. Obama tried to set things right but the Chinese leader sent a low level delegate to a meeting that Obama had requested because they felt that Obama had insulted them and they wanted to insult him right back. In the end, the Climate Treaty that all the world's leaders had assembled to sign----the draft treaty that would've required CO2 emission reductions----- was never ratified and never signed. Instead the delegates cobbled together a weak substitute statement at the end of the Copenhagen meeting, but the opportunity to sign a truly binding treaty mandating CO2 reductions was lost.....most likely forever.

the-ugly-truth-about-obamas-copenhagen-accord

It took 6 more years for a new UN climate Accord to be signed in Paris....the so-called Paris Accords-----but the Paris Accords gave up on the idea of mandatory CO2 reductions and went back to voluntary pledges, so the Paris Accords are just a re-hash of the same approach that failed in Kyoto Accords, and sure enough its already clear that the Paris Accords have failed to reduce CO2 emissions just like the Kyoto Accords failed before them.

So now the world's leaders have wasted three decades patting themselves on the back for signing on two phony UN climate treaties that don't actually require CO2 reductions. The world has been stuck in the worthless Paris Accords for 6 years now, and every year (except when we have a pandemic shutdown) global CO2 emissions go higher and higher. The Paris Accords are nothing but greenwashing.....SHEESH!!

Image
Its time to abandon the Paris Climate Accords and and start negotiations on a real climate treaty that really requires global CO2 emission reductions

Personally, I think those lost decades mean its too late to stop global warming now......especially when global CO2 emissions continue to go up every year

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Re: CO2 Clock

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 May 2022, 22:56:10

theluckycountry wrote:Electricity is not oil.


I suppose coming from an educational system that can't create folks capable of building a domestic automobile, you have to prove it by sticking with something obvious to everyone else in the properly educated countries?

Electricity isn't oil. True. But electricity gets you to hydrogen, and anyone who has ever taken an organic chemistry class knows that HYDROcarbons (capitalized for the folks who aren't even smart enough to build their own cars) contain lots of HYDROGEN. Duh.

Give me a nuke plant by the sea and I'll give you as much liquid fuels as the plant can be designed to crank out. For decades. I understand that Australians who can't build cars running on a tank of gasoline might be confused by using a tank of hydrogen instead (let alone a fuel cell) to power a device they can't build, but what do you expect from a Chinese mining colony.

luckycountry wrote: And it's well past time for people to figure that one out.


And what elment in HYDROcarbons matter. Now run along, there must be a foreigner running what passes for a high school in your land who's job it is to explain how to add and subtract to the locals being trained to run an excavator or something. Go get it figured out with them, no need to bother us with your ignorance on this topic.
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Re: CO2 Clock

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 04 May 2022, 17:26:43

Folks who want to talk about the German Energiewende situation were getting pretty far off topic so I moved your posts to the proper thread. Please feel free to continue
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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