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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Doly » Wed 26 Jan 2022, 16:03:49

His perfect theory completely ignores the fact that there is an oven pumping heat into the system, of such thermal mass and conductivity to absolutely dwarf any cooling effect of water injected.


So you reckon that Baduila's theory of what makes oil harder and harder to extract is wrong. You may well be correct. But it's still true that oil is getting harder and harder to extract.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 26 Jan 2022, 16:41:38

Doly wrote:
His perfect theory completely ignores the fact that there is an oven pumping heat into the system, of such thermal mass and conductivity to absolutely dwarf any cooling effect of water injected.


So you reckon that Baduila's theory of what makes oil harder and harder to extract is wrong.


I know EXACTLY what makes oil harder to extract, and spent a career in industry doing it every day of the week. I guarantee the following....it never had anything to do with downhole temperature, or changes in that temperature because of production operations, including frack water flowback post completion whereby I removed all that heat, and then temperature logs couldn't find the difference pre and post completion. Magma...bucket of water...etc etc.

Depth matters in terms of the lifting energy required. Simple physics. 300# of oil lifted by sucker rods from 3000' might require 1 hour of a 10HP electric motor running to get it to surface. If lifted from 1500', it would require 30 minutes. Calculate the energy used per unit time. The difference? Based on depth. Throw in some friction losses, and the same would hold true down to 6000'. 10 years later when I returned to production operations the same energy was still being used to get all the "harder" to get oil. The volume per unit time had changed, and again, that had nothing to do with temperature. The energy/work physics hadn't changed in 10 years any more than the downhole temperature.

But reservoir properties that WEREN'T temperature.....and presto...now we are back to WHY production is harder. Baduila didn't ask a professional in the field any more than Bedford did. Baduila can't figure out the direction of the thermal gradient that people who install residential sub-surface WATER PIPES use to their advantage, let alone what happens to temperatures in an oven when you drop a cold rock into it.

Doly wrote: You may well be correct. But it's still true that oil is getting harder and harder to extract.


It absolutely is. And Baduila doesn't have a clue why.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Fri 28 Jan 2022, 03:55:30

My calculations are based on the 2nd law. The 2nd law is always valid. So i must believe, the calculation is valid too.
Lets take Ghawar as an example. Each day, about 8 Million barrels of water are pumped down to a depth of about 2000 m, to the bottom of the oil reservoir. Lets do the reservoir temperature measurement near the water inlet. Its is against all laws of physics and against all logic, that the reservoir temperature will not decrease. Lets do the measurement near the oil outlet. It will take a long time, before the temperature influence of the water can be detected. Eventually, the effect will be detectable only when the water layer reaches the sensor. You see, it it not sufficient to measure the reservoir temperature, the measurement must be done in the right way.

The pity is, that the huge amounts of energy, consumed during oil production, can’t be measured directly. I use two indirect methods: price of oil (daily) and number of car sales (monthly). Both methods tell me since years, that my calculation is correct.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 28 Jan 2022, 11:43:06

Baduila wrote:My calculations are based on the 2nd law. The 2nd law is always valid.


I agree with you, the 2nd Law is always valid. Your misinterpretation of its principles in a system you do not even partially understand is the problem.

Baduila wrote:So i must believe, the calculation is valid too.


I don't question your calculations, I almost never do that to theorists. I question every scintilla of your proper application to the system under discussion.

What happens to the temperature INSIDE THE OVEN when you insert a cold rock Baduilla? Does the oven using an external energy source mean that your thermodynamic problem is a closed system, or a open/dynamic one? Why does the temperature gradient EXIST in the first place? Are you familiar with heat generation through radioactive decay, and the principle forces that govern the geology and tectonic underpinnings of the very ground upon which you stand?

Do you understand that a bucket of cold water thrown on a stream of magma doesn't phase the operation and direction of the magma in the least, even if you could measure an infinitesimal change in surface temperature on 1 square inch of that surface?

Baduilla wrote:You see, it it not sufficient to measure the reservoir temperature, the measurement must be done in the right way.


Please show the thermodynamic calculations (as you do seem to like them) for the amount of energy absorbed by the water as it is warmed by the thermal mass around it (thereby reducing the temperature of the formation). Then, account for the specific heat and thermal conductivity and mass of the rock (and accompanying fluids within the pore volume) making this possible. With the energy/mass relationship established, you can talk about 2 things, the energy content of the entire greater system of rock, and the energy content needed from that system to constantly warm up the water. Once you have that difference, then you can run the same calculation on the rock surrounding the specific formation, and figure out that difference. . Continue this process a few more steps and presto....you discover at the heart of it all...there is an oven pumping heat into the entire system making it possible. You will also discover things already known. Rock is a good insulator. There is a volume of water that sooner or later MIGHT change the specific formation temperature that would be discernable on a temperature log, and if you continue this exercise you will discover that this POSSIBLE change in temperature will not bother the ability to recover oil or natural gas in the least. Straight up, simple physics, figured out by the folks who wrote "Applied Petroleum Reservoir Engineering" B.C. Craft and M.F. Hawkins from Louisiana State University published by Prentice-Hall, Inc. in Englewood Cliffs NJ Copyrighted in 1959 First Edition, as you seem to like textbooks, and when you've got your physics right, you don't need the newest version of anything.

Baduilla wrote:The pity is, that the huge amounts of energy, consumed during oil production, can’t be measured directly.


It can. Just not at the global level. I can quantify every barrel of product coming out of a well I've drilled and completed, and every product put down the hole to make that production possible, and all the ancillary fuels and solvents and manpower to manage all of this, but just because I have all of it DOESN'T mean I care, as it isn't relevant to the driving motivation force of producing oil and gas.

This means that, like you, when we discuss these topics, even knowing and having information on every component of MY system, I can't assume that the next operator over the hill, or with different geologic and operational conditions, will be the same. And presto...we are now back to generalizations.

Baduilla wrote: I use two indirect methods: price of oil (daily) and number of car sales (monthly). Both methods tell me since years, that my calculation is correct.


I don't dispute your calculation, as I said, I don't tend to need to with theorists. But you are bonkers if you believe that CAR sales has anything to do with the effort (energy or money) that goes into the decision making process to explore for, the drilling, completion, production and duration of said production of an oil and gas producing well.

Price however factors into all of this, but in different ways based on where you are in the sequence.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Doly » Fri 28 Jan 2022, 14:43:48

The pity is, that the huge amounts of energy, consumed during oil production, can’t be measured directly.


Surely the facilities extracting oil know how much energy they are using for oil extraction. The data may not be publicly available, but somebody is measuring it.

Depth matters in terms of the lifting energy required.


Sounds reasonable, and more in line with what I assumed was the main reason for oil extraction becoming more energy intensive. Though, I also understand that the natural pressure in the reservoir, that has to do with temperature, also has something to do with it. But I know little about the details of oil extraction myself, so I'm not going to argue the point.

Since you agree that oil is getting harder to extract, at some point the energy needed to extract the oil would be less than the energy provided by the oil, which is what EROEI tries to measure. It may still be technically possible to extract the oil, but pointless for the purpose of using oil as an energy source. Do you agree so far?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Fri 28 Jan 2022, 16:23:04

Doly wrote:Since you agree that oil is getting harder to extract, at some point the energy needed to extract the oil would be less than the energy provided by the oil, which is what EROEI tries to measure. It may still be technically possible to extract the oil, but pointless for the purpose of using oil as an energy source. Do you agree so far?


Not necessarily. It would depend on what energy source you use to extract the oil and the economics of the project. If your energy source is natural gas that would otherwise be flared or renewable energy that could not be used otherwise, stored, or distributed, then it would "make sense" to continue extracting that oil for as long as it remained economically profitable, even if you only get out a fraction of the energy invested in extracting it. It sucks, particularly for the environment, but it's true. I expect this to happen.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 28 Jan 2022, 17:09:07

Doly wrote:
Depth matters in terms of the lifting energy required.


Sounds reasonable, and more in line with what I assumed was the main reason for oil extraction becoming more energy intensive. Though, I also understand that the natural pressure in the reservoir, that has to do with temperature, also has something to do with it. But I know little about the details of oil extraction myself, so I'm not going to argue the point.


Temperature factors into just about every multi-dimensional chart used in common reservoir steady state equations. But not in pore volume compressibility versus overburden pressure. Slightly in formation volume factor, but that is because you are moving from in-situ conditions to standard conditions, temperature matters there. Static reservoir temperature is very important to insitu conditions related to bubble point calculations, again in-situ. Solubility of natural gas in water changes with temperature. Water compressibility is effected by in-situ condition.

Certainly temperature is accounted for all over the place. But for original in-situ conditions....because it doesn't change enough to matter across the life of a reservoir.

Pressure however, under saturated or saturated oil, permeability, porosity, now we're talking!

Doly wrote:Since you agree that oil is getting harder to extract, at some point the energy needed to extract the oil would be less than the energy provided by the oil, which is what EROEI tries to measure.


I am aware of how EROEI is measured. And how I can use 10,000 BTUs of electricity to make 5,000 BTUs of oil and make money on it while having an EROEI<1.

Have you figured out a way around this inconvenient fact yet? :)

I can run a rig on diesel, natural gas or electricity. And that electricity coming from the local grid can be derived from solar, wind, nukes, biogas, hydro, etc etc.

Doly wrote: It may still be technically possible to extract the oil, but pointless for the purpose of using oil as an energy source. Do you agree so far?


I don't extract "technically possible" oil and gas. I extract economically profitable oil and gas. Drop the price of the commodity, or raise my costs above the IRR level, and my oil comes off the market. I agree with the facts on WHY I produce oil and gas. I can assemble the prices and cost in such a way that my economic oil becomes uneconomic with EROEI>10. I can also assemble costs and prices in such a way that it stays economic with EROEI<1.

You have a supposition on a relationship between EROEI and oil and gas production. But I don't have to figure out how your theory applies to the facts of oil and gas production, you do.

Maxim semper necessitas probandi incumbit ei qui agit
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