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Bitcoin & crypto?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 25 Jan 2022, 22:15:02

Bitcoin and all the spinoffs are like the internet between 1995 and 2005. It was free and democratic with virtually zero censorship and control. Of course the people flocked to it, because people inherently crave freedom. But after watching it develop for a decade the powers that be moved in to monetize it and censor it and basically bring it under government control. I remember the internet back then, eBay fees were non-existent, as they should be considering it's just a bunch of computers, and news was accurate, music was free lol.

We will see the same happen with the digital tokens, they will be taxed in and out of the gate, they will be tracked, they will be worse than cash for private transactions, and in fact already are! There is nothing special about bitcoin aside from the fact it was the first token, that's why it's the highest priced. Its price is based on faith, faith it will always be the best. The best what? The best how? Faith is a tenuous thing to ascribe to a monetary token that isn't backed by a nation state.

The Great Crypto Crash of 2022 is still ongoing, it will be interesting to see where it ends but already there are millions of people across the globe scared witless. They are watching as a chunk of their life savings vanish before their eyes. Sure they were told reversals can happen, but dogecoin is down 82% from its highs. That's a hell of reversal! A coin fan will say "Well not everyone bought in near 73-cents" True, but a hell of a lot did, that's what drove it so high in the first place. And the vast majority would have come in over 14-cents I'd say, seen the run up, dreamed of early retirement, and are now wishing they sold at 50, or 40, or even 30. I have seen my silver assets do similar reversals but never to such extremes. The reality is silver is a critical component in many modern devices and has a floor under it, a floor that goes higher with inflation. Crypto is superfluous, it has no floor, that's it's major flaw.

superfluous: [adjective] exceeding what is sufficient or necessary : extra. not needed : unnecessary.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 26 Jan 2022, 15:08:09

theluckycountry wrote:We will see the same happen with the digital tokens, they will be taxed in and out of the gate, they will be tracked, they will be worse than cash for private transactions, and in fact already are! There is nothing special about bitcoin aside from the fact it was the first token, that's why it's the highest priced. Its price is based on faith, faith it will always be the best. The best what? The best how? Faith is a tenuous thing to ascribe to a monetary token that isn't backed by a nation state.

The history of privately created money is NOT good, re the proportion of such money that became worthless in relatively short order. Crypto is merely the modern form of private currency, supported by computer technology vs. physical printing.

I absolutely agree that there's nothing (much) special about Bitcoin. It has first mover advantage re popularity, and that popularity means it has the largest trading and circulation market CURRENTLY. As fast as the space evolves though, it clearly has significant disadvantages too, including things like energy consumption, speed, and little capacity, re actually acting as a practical currency, as it stands, and over time, there is the potential for literally an infinite amount of competition, which will continue to evolve and have technology improvements as the space matures.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_currency

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7hZjV2rsbQ

(Peter Boyle is an outstanding teacher about financial issues for the layman, including me. Virtually every video of his I've seen was well worth the time, regardless of the specific topic.)

https://www.amazon.com/100-Greatest-Ame ... 128&sr=1-5

theluckycountry wrote:The Great Crypto Crash of 2022 is still ongoing, it will be interesting to see where it ends but already there are millions of people across the globe scared witless.

The internet is trying to decide whether this is just a pause, or whether we're likely to enter annother "crypto winter" where prices get low and stay low for many months (and short term interest greatly wanes). I have no idea, as usual re market fluctuations in the short to intermediate term. OTOH, if I wanted to make a serious investment in popular crypto(s), during a significant crypto winter would be the time to choose for an INVESTMENT timeframe, instead of chasing it while the internet is literally aflame with crypto hype.

theluckycountry wrote:Crypto is superfluous, it has no floor, that's it's major flaw.

True, re having no floor. The ONLY thing supporting crypto C at price P is the belief that other people will want to buy it at higher prices in the future. (The high interest rates that some exchanges currently pay to hold your crypto won't last if there is a long crypto winter. That interest is paid because they can make more than that trading crypto futures).

Unless the global economy literally blows up and can't recover (and if it does, we all have MAJOR problems beyond just money), stocks have a floor, re business value and dividends. The floor could be quite low, as the great depression illustrated (something like 10% to 15% of the 1929 high prices, overall), but the best and strongest companies, as a group, will continue to have value as long as the overall economy functions, providing demand for their products.

...

It will be interesting to see what happens. Re crypto, NFT's, meme stocks, the metaverse, and financial markets in general, the internet is certainly good at getting people fired up about trading (currently) popular financial instruments, and helping people pump such things for profits (like selling Youtube ads).

...

Just as a level-set: A year or two ago, there were lots and lots of predictions of Bitcoin hitting $100K to $300K in 2021. There was lots of confident repetition and assertion by many (including some here) that this was almost certain. And of course, the pumpers are still hard at it, but the masses who bought BTC at over $50K a coin aren't particularly amused any more.

At least the pumpers like Cathie Wood do so for investment timeframes (like 5 or more years out). But clearly this is a high risk thing to "invest" in, which given all the hype, far too many young internet speculators don't seem to realize much, if at all. (Get rich quick schemes never go away, the pitch just changes).

I think there will be a lot more regulation on crypto over time, which can end up being a good thing, but can also be a significant risk for crypto longs, depending on what ends up in the regulations.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 27 Jan 2022, 22:20:54

Outcast_Searcher wrote:The history of privately created money is NOT good


I remember a system called "LETS" back in the late nineties, Everyone in my city was raving about it, stores of all types were accepting them, a friend with a mowing business and another with a point of sale software business were both accepting them for up to 50% of their fees. You could buy Pizza for LETS, get your car washed. I don't remember the actual system, it was a ledger of sorts from memory? I never took part and it all blew up one day when the government declared it illegal lol lol.

Bitcoin looks the same to me except no one is buying with it, they all hodl for the most part, then freak out when it tanks. Strange currency alright.

The internet is trying to decide whether this is just a pause, or whether we're likely to enter another "crypto winter" where prices get low and stay low for many months (and short term interest greatly wanes).


That's another thing, there are no tangible dynamics to explain the collapses and lull, I say lull because we only had one, these coins have no real history to draw on do they. Why did bitcoin stay down for those years? Why did it take off like a space launch after that? There is no explanation other than Fear and Greed. Those are the only fundamentals of the crypto market. Fear and Greed.

I think there will be a lot more regulation on crypto over time, which can end up being a good thing, but can also be a significant risk for crypto longs, depending on what ends up in the regulations.


I agree.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Doly » Sat 29 Jan 2022, 15:10:08

Why did bitcoin stay down for those years? Why did it take off like a space launch after that? There is no explanation other than Fear and Greed. Those are the only fundamentals of the crypto market. Fear and Greed.


What I don't understand about cryptos is, they go up when people are fearful, but if a sufficiently bad disaster happened, you probably wouldn't be able to transact cryptos anyway. What's the logic in that? I understand gold bugs a lot better. If a disaster happened, and you actually had gold in your possession, you could still use it. Of course, you may disagree with gold bugs that gold is the best thing to have in a disaster, but that's a different question.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 30 Jan 2022, 06:01:46

Doly wrote:
Why did bitcoin stay down for those years? Why did it take off like a space launch after that? There is no explanation other than Fear and Greed. Those are the only fundamentals of the crypto market. Fear and Greed.


What I don't understand about cryptos is, they go up when people are fearful, but if a sufficiently bad disaster happened, you probably wouldn't be able to transact cryptos anyway. What's the logic in that? I understand gold bugs a lot better. If a disaster happened, and you actually had gold in your possession, you could still use it. Of course, you may disagree with gold bugs that gold is the best thing to have in a disaster, but that's a different question.

I suspect that with the age and the tech. focus of MUCH of the crypto bull community, they are so involved with their phones and the idea of solar panels, etc. that a LOT of them simply can't imagine being without power or the crypto networks working reliably, for any length of time.

I think it's decades before, say, 90% or more of first world homes have lots of solar generation and backup batteries to make the power fairly reliable (if conserved), even if the grid is down for weeks at a time.

So, crypto might not be as highly reliable as they assume, IMO. But as usual, I could well end up being wrong, re trying to predict the future.

But I have to agree that if things get really bad it's a lot easier to imagine people bartering, say, 90% silver quarters for a little food than the BTC network with its MASSIVE power needs reliably humming along and constantly accessible through one's smart phone.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 03 Feb 2022, 10:44:44

Doly wrote:Of course, you may disagree with gold bugs that gold is the best thing to have in a disaster, but that's a different question.


All I have to go on is history, and only a few thousand years of it. I can't think of a single time during all that period where gold wasn't a godsend in disastrous times for those that had it. Even the 1933~ period was a boon for gold holders if they had trusted themselves and kept their gold in their own possession. The law stated that anyone could be in possession of 5 ounces after surrendering the bulk of it. Within a very short time the gold went up 50%, in a time of deflation at that! So you sell two ounces to the dealers, who were all still trading in coins, and 3 months later another 2 or 3, and so on.

Who's to know how many a person had? 5 for you 5 for the wife five each for the kids lol, of just 200 ounces well hidden. The penalties for hoarding were very serious but I couldn't find a single case of a conviction or even prosecution. The government had raked in probably 98% of it and weren't about to waste valuable resources chasing the dregs. Most people in society police themselves, out of fear. A study of gold coinage after the fall of Rome is even more interesting. Roman gold coins were traded for centuries and other forms took their place. At some level everyone knows the value of gold. Women certainly.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 03 Feb 2022, 11:55:22

Now here is a typical expert on bitcoin, bum-fluff still on the face, the latest buds in the ears, and his analysis? "Bitcoins' long term objective is to replace something like gold" He believes, obviously, that bitcoin is some kind of AI, that has a mind of it's own and has decided that it "wants to be like gold"

This is root problem when looking at the cryptos, no one has a CLUE what is driving the trades, they just make $hite up and try to sound knowledgeable.

Image

Here's another coin clown interviewed on Yahoo finance. He refuses to look at the current price action because he's looking 100 years ahead, no kidding! Hell the planet could be nuked into ash by then but the CEO of Microstrategy has found a way around the fact that bitcoin is about as pedictable as a volcano.

Image


Here is the full life chart of bitcoin. What is it? it's a meaningless chart, it has nothing in it that could be evaluated, aside from possibly the double top pattern which may be linked to cycles in human behavior, no can define pattern that with any certainty other that after it occurs, it's typically over for the investment class, at least for a couple of decades or more. The chart of bitcoin doesn't compare to any financial chart I have ever seen aside from the other cryptos.

Image

But if you want to see conventional madness, look at the chart of TSLA, it' nearly a grand a share today and in 2019 it was under $40. Now that's madness. Tesla has a PE of 187 Price/earnings ratio. What this means is that if you own 1000 shares, a million dollars worth, you have a claim on $5300 worth of automaker. One that is fast being superseded by the European makers like Audi Mercedes and BMW.

https://www.discoverev.co.uk/images/news/2020/october/mercedes-eq/Mercedes-VISION-EQS_480px.jpg
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 26 Feb 2022, 03:18:30

Doly wrote:
What I don't understand about cryptos is, they go up when people are fearful, but if a sufficiently bad disaster happened, you probably wouldn't be able to transact cryptos anyway. What's the logic in that?


Now they are going down in a very fearlful international period, whereas gold is going up. These coins seem to track stocks more that anything I think.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 26 Feb 2022, 08:47:06

theluckycountry wrote:
Doly wrote:
What I don't understand about cryptos is, they go up when people are fearful, but if a sufficiently bad disaster happened, you probably wouldn't be able to transact cryptos anyway. What's the logic in that?


Now they are going down in a very fearlful international period, whereas gold is going up. These coins seem to track stocks more that anything I think.

That certainly has been true recently. I think the speculators in cryptos are the same speculators that buy and sell stocks based on the news of the day instead of looking at the underling company value and profits.
If the looked at the underlying value of a crypto they would see it is indeed rat poison.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 26 Feb 2022, 21:53:45

vtsnowedin wrote:I think the speculators in cryptos are the same speculators that buy and sell stocks based on the news of the day instead of looking at the underling company value and profits.
If the looked at the underlying value of a crypto they would see it is indeed rat poison.


Indeed. The recent announcement that cyrpto is going to be regulated (and taxed) in the future certainly wouldn't help but that doesn't explain the selloffs, or price declines, over the past 3 or 4 months. There is simply no logic to that sh*t, Tulips made more sense than crypto coins.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Mon 28 Feb 2022, 02:40:32

You people are hilarious. It reminds me of the Arabic Tale where six esteemed scholars ended up in an argument over how many teeth were in a camels mouth. After many hours of discussion, a young boy raised his hand and asked "Has anybody just counted them?" :)

Most of you have used the term "I don't understand" several times in your posts. Have you tried? Or, are you basing your beliefs on your considerable knowledge of stocks, bonds and hard assets without doing due diligence on Bitcoin and any other cryptos you may find interesting.

I wonder what you were thinking when Amazon crashed 95%? Maybe it was proof this whole internet thing was a scam, who would buy books without actually holding them?

Here are some clues:

1. Crypto winter is related to the Halving.

2. Bitcoin has been used to bypass the Canadian fascists', Russians Occupying Ukraine, and the IMF.

3. If used responsibly it can not be confiscated.

4. Centralization decreases freedom, Decentralization increases freedom.

OK enough protolyzing.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 28 Feb 2022, 21:30:37

careinke wrote:
Most of you have used the term "I don't understand" several times in your posts. Have you tried?
Here are some clues:

1. Crypto winter is related to the Halving.

2. Bitcoin has been used to bypass the Canadian fascists', Russians Occupying Ukraine, and the IMF.

3. If used responsibly it can not be confiscated.

4. Centralization decreases freedom, Decentralization increases freedom.


So there are crypto seasons then, care to explain the cycles? Care to explain ANYthing you wrote? Care to explain why dogecoin began its epic collapse back 10 months ago?

I know you are a true believer, and nothing will dissuade you of that until the coins are in the toilet for a decade, but surely you must have a sentient explanation for the above. I can explain the stock market, lots of cheap money and hubris pushing them up to an overvalued state then a fearful major correction. And as those corrections get underway, the PM's take off, and ultimately correct when they are overvalued. It seems though that crypto bugs believe that their asset has no overvaluation limit. Every correction is a pause before the big moon launch, bitcoin $100,000. $200,000. Some people in the PM camp believe that nonsense about gold, but the rest of us just chuckle. Nothing performs the way crypto had in the last two years except tech stocks leading up to Y2k, gold and silver in it's manic 1970's bubble, and tesla lol lol.

At the end of those bubbles though gold and IT stocks, and even tesla's are still a needed commodity and in demand. But crypto? Anyone can make any number of them, in any amounts, so there is no demand other than that linked to a meme or a perceived notion of value.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Doly » Wed 02 Mar 2022, 16:14:29

But if you want to see conventional madness, look at the chart of TSLA


And what is your explanation for that? As far as I can tell, people seem to buy Tesla to indicate that they think that Elon Musk rocks. Why they think that he rocks is a mystery to me, but clearly lots of people, or some very rich people, seem to think that.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 02 Mar 2022, 16:37:11

Doly wrote:
But if you want to see conventional madness, look at the chart of TSLA


And what is your explanation for that? As far as I can tell, people seem to buy Tesla to indicate that they think that Elon Musk rocks. Why they think that he rocks is a mystery to me, but clearly lots of people, or some very rich people, seem to think that.

Personality aside Tesla was developing and did develop a new state of the art product that they can sell as fast as they can make them. The next Apple or Microsoft of the decade, and forward looking investors got in to not miss the ride. You could have got in for $50/share back in June of 2019 before Tesla had ever shown a profit. Those shares are worth $863 today and have been as high as $1200. The guys that bought shares at $1200 are not looking happy as yet but it may come back if Tesla can stay cutting edge and keep ahead of Ford and GM.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 03 Mar 2022, 14:25:00

careinke wrote:You people are hilarious.

OTOH, most of the claims re crypto and NFT re the likely reality, are rather hilarious.

Hint: Hand waving doesn't equate to reality. This video by someone who actually knows what he's talking about, which has been viewed millions of times, has quite of a few of the same concerns for BTC that I have cited.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g

And of course, your ilk wouldn't want to HEAR any of the sort of due diligence things like this video represent, while you're claiming only you know the "truth". :lol:

But of course, the pumpers claim that anyone with legitimate concerns is "hilarious", and that nothing could possibly go wrong.

Mean time, in the real world, with the Russians on the move and the global markets in chaos, crypto has NOT been doing well as a refuge overall.

By my math, current prices for BTC are NOWHERE NEAR the $100K to $300K it was supposed to go to by the end of 2021, much less the $500K to cool $million it's supposedly going to by mid decade, re various pumpers on Youtube.

But if things don't go well, the pumpers blame crypto winter, pretend that none of their past claims, forecasts, etc. happened (or if they did happen, given that the internet and data exist, they don't matter), yadda yadda. :roll:

What could possibly go wrong in the future as the pumpers will never stop pumping? As a reminder, cryptos are privately issued currencies, and the historical results of privately issued currencies is that they fail in time. Period. Even worse than fiat, re gradually being inflated away, privately issued currencies just leave big groups of bag holders. Wrapping them in some computer code and yelling "but the BLOCKCHAIN", as though that's a magic spell that guarantees profits for BTC et. al. doesn't change the fundamental reality.

...

OTOH, gold, oil, and many traditional commodities, as traditional inflation hedges, have been doing rather well. (When the inflation doesn't last, that might not end well, but that's another issue, and we don't know the future re how bad things get with Russia and its aggression and the economic fallout).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 04 Mar 2022, 17:25:05

Doly wrote:
But if you want to see conventional madness, look at the chart of TSLA


And what is your explanation for that? As far as I can tell, people seem to buy Tesla to indicate that they think that Elon Musk rocks. Why they think that he rocks is a mystery to me, but clearly lots of people, or some very rich people, seem to think that.


Small illiterate investors think that way but not institutional funds, not pension funds, and that is where the trillion dollars has come from. The explanation is simple, the institutional investors have to deliver a return, especially pension funds. They will put the money anywhere there is growth, regardless of this level of risk. While this big money flows in the price goes up, simple supply and demand.

From Sydney to London to Helsinki, fund managers are seeking returns and Tesla is one destination. Of course it must end, just like it did in the GFC, a big reset, a wipe-out of value across the board. That's ok too, the fund managers can simply hold up their hands and say "No one could have seen this coming" and they won't be blamed for their mismanagement.

Why anyone with a modicum of intelligence would expect the real value of anything, other than natural resources, to be going up beyond these levels is bewildering to me. It's all a shell game now.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 04 Mar 2022, 23:48:13

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
careinke wrote:You people are hilarious.

OTOH, most of the claims re crypto and NFT re the likely reality, are rather hilarious.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g

Excellent video, totally nails the mortgage debacle. I call it a debacle because I didn't have any money on that table, if I had I'd be calling it a tragedy, or suchlike. People need to understand that when reading posts hey, a persons choice of language often relates to how the subject effects them personally.

But if things don't go well, the pumpers blame crypto winter, pretend that none of their past claims, forecasts, etc. happened


careinke is laughing now because they never got memo that it's time to move into the "anger" stage. Most hodlers are either angry or despondent now, I haven't noticed any levelheaded acceptance of a pullback or the like, that sort of analysis requires fundamentals other than Fear and Greed.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 05 Mar 2022, 00:03:08

vtsnowedin wrote: Personality aside Tesla was developing and did develop a new state of the art product that they can sell as fast as they can make them... The guys that bought shares at $1200 are not looking happy as yet but it may come back if Tesla can stay cutting edge and keep ahead of Ford and GM.


GM and ford are basically bankrupt old hasbeens, if it wasn't for their finance arm and the government bailouts they'd be long gone. As for tesla developing a new state of the art product, all they did was copy the technology of the Toyota Prius, beefed up the battery and stripped out the gas engine. Toyota was selling their EV hybrid to the market in 2003 when Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning were first penciling out the basics.

If you look at the two paragraphs above you will notice I am exposing the fallacy of the "Made in America" meme, where everything made in America is wholesome, the best there ever was. The truth is, aside from tools, most native american product is rubbish today, and most of it constructed from cheap parts made offshore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1cvWTBK9zI
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 05 Mar 2022, 00:07:53

theluckycountry wrote:Most holders are either angry or despondent now, .

Only the ones that jumped in when it was $50,000 and above. :o
It is like any other property as it is worth what it will bring when put up for sale.
But unlike common stocks that have a company doing business and hopefully making profits and owning plant and equipment, plus other salable items like patents to support a base value of their share prices, the cryptos have only the value the speculators place on them at the moment.
Rat poison.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 05 Mar 2022, 00:20:54

theluckycountry wrote:GM and ford are basically bankrupt old hasbeens, if it wasn't for their finance arm and the government bailouts they'd be long gone.


I wonder what cars Australians drive, banana bender or not?

Australian car brands: Everything you need to know
Toyota Corolla.
Holden Commodore.
Holden Cruze.
Ford Territory.
Ford Falcon.
Toyota Camry.
Holden Ute.
Nissan Pulsar.


Anyone know who makes Holden cars? Oh yeah...a subsidiary of GM. Australians like those bankrupt hasbeens for some reason?

Well, at least 2 Japanese brands made it in, can you imagine how stupid all those other Australians are buying American brands?

Australians can't bolt an internal combustion engine onto a transmission and get it attached to wheels, can you IMAGINE folks that mechanically incompetent standing the watch in the control room of an American nuke sub? My god, they'll need Americans crewing the thing while they cook shrimp on the barbie or something tasty in the galley, does anyone here know what the average IQ of convicts might be, so we can get a sense of how low an iQ it requires to NOT be able to bolt together a car for themselves?
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