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THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 00:01:02

Given how cheap it is to produce shale gas why is the USA still a net gas importer?
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 00:55:42

Pipelines ... more precisely, lack of.

Canada has an asston of natgas that still ships into the US.

Of course, the LNG plant in Boston harbor brings in gas from Trinidad, Yemen, Russia, cuz the stuff a short car ride away is that stinkin' no good fracked stuff.

Better to pay $175/mmbtu spot on January 5 at Transco Zone 6 than $4 bucks everywhere else.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby marmico » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 12:00:33

To a rounding error, the US was a natural gas net exporter in 2017.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9180us1A.htm
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 16:21:22

marmico wrote:To a rounding error, the US was a natural gas net exporter in 2017.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9180us1A.htm


Look at that! Not only were these the only folks smart enough to laugh off the peak oil fear meme, but they were right about when the US would become a net exporter as well? I'll be darned...good thing we have experts publishing their work so we aren't left with the spam loaf that the likes of heinberg want to serve up to the gullible.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Zarquon » Thu 03 May 2018, 20:04:17

https://www.propublica.org/article/west ... atural-gas

The Coal Industry Extracted a Steep Price From West Virginia. Now Natural Gas Is Leading the State Down the Same Path.
“It’s déjà vu for the people who sat here 130 years ago and gave away our coal wealth to big out-of-state companies,” one state senator said. “That’s what we’re about to do again.”


Long article about politics and natgas in WV. Seems not everyone is happy with the boom.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 03 May 2018, 22:17:03

I only briefly skimmed part of that linked article but will return to it later.

There are many threads, many aspects to this particular situation, West Virginia and its emerging natgas industry, but a crucial component is seldom mentioned.

That is trust.

North Dakota culture demonstrably shows how government, regulators, and industry work in a collaborative atmosphere to ensure maximal societal benefit. This manifests by enabling effective extraction and handling of hydrocarbons with minimal collateral downside and equitable sharing of the overall financial returns.

Described succinctly, little harm, efficient operations, some revenues to all.

Unfortunately, ideologues have used every tool at their disposal, notably 401 water certificates and a gazillion other objections in their zeal to keep it in the ground.

The people of Appalachia are standing atop a hydrocarbon bounty equal to the middle with its oil.

Should prudence and integrity hold sway, generations to come will benefit enormously.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 03 May 2018, 23:41:58

Should prudence and integrity hold sway, generations to come will benefit enormously


Aye...and something I firmly believe in. If the normal Joe on the street was made aware of all the issues...OK. there is climate change and this is what folks say about it from both sides, and there is this about transportation of hydrocarbons the facts versus Greenpeace claims etc...they then could start to make some sense of it all. Instead, they are inundated by incredibly uneducated people telling them that "the bulk of scientists believe this" or "pipelines will destroy our way of life" which is not only largely lies but also not important to the understanding of....what do we do going forward. There is far too much politicization of what Joe Blow (who actually never took science beyond high school) believes is scientific fact versus what should be the normal discussion amongst scientists which involves ranges of the importance of immediate effect, ranges or eventual outcomes and ranges of related impacts.
Instead, we need to embrace the fact we need hydrocarbons from all sorts of sources for decades until alternatives can replace them (if they can...the numbers don't convince me as yet). But we can get those hydrocarbons relatively safely. It is amazing to me that folks here have not been paying attention to the new tech coming out of the oil industry that is focussed on making that industry "greener" (a term I hate because it has bad implications that are not bounded by science). There are all sorts of things that are out there right now from zero emissions well site to full recycling of injected water through the complete elimination of all exhausted gases.
I am a full believer we need to move away from oil and gas as our main energy source but I also know this can't be done in a very short time...there is not enough source from alternatives to replace it now or in the near future. The statistics are not the friends of those who say we can just stop burning fossil fuels. It doesn't work.
That being said we can be a lot smarter about what we do and we can continue to implement good EV tech and other similar things. We do, however, need to make sure that the Hoy Paloy isn't expecting some sort of energy panacea in the next few years....it ain't happening ...in fact, we are stuck with hydrocarbons for many decades as far as I can tell. I am, however, hoping for the ability out where I live in the country to have a number of back up charging cells (AKA Tesla) installed in my barn...and when they have reliable all wheel drive EV's I will probably buy one...but I doubt I will get rid of my back up ICE pickup.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 07 May 2018, 12:36:46

rockdoc123 wrote:
Should prudence and integrity hold sway, generations to come will benefit enormously


Aye...and something I firmly believe in. If the normal Joe on the street was made aware of all the issues...OK. there is climate change and this is what folks say about it from both sides, and there is this about transportation of hydrocarbons the facts versus Greenpeace claims etc...they then could start to make some sense of it all. Instead, they are inundated by incredibly uneducated people telling them that "the bulk of scientists believe this" or "pipelines will destroy our way of life" which is not only largely lies but also not important to the understanding of....what do we do going forward. There is far too much politicization of what Joe Blow (who actually never took science beyond high school) believes is scientific fact versus what should be the normal discussion amongst scientists which involves ranges of the importance of immediate effect, ranges or eventual outcomes and ranges of related impacts.
Instead, we need to embrace the fact we need hydrocarbons from all sorts of sources for decades until alternatives can replace them (if they can...the numbers don't convince me as yet). But we can get those hydrocarbons relatively safely. It is amazing to me that folks here have not been paying attention to the new tech coming out of the oil industry that is focussed on making that industry "greener" (a term I hate because it has bad implications that are not bounded by science). There are all sorts of things that are out there right now from zero emissions well site to full recycling of injected water through the complete elimination of all exhausted gases.
I am a full believer we need to move away from oil and gas as our main energy source but I also know this can't be done in a very short time...there is not enough source from alternatives to replace it now or in the near future. The statistics are not the friends of those who say we can just stop burning fossil fuels. It doesn't work.
That being said we can be a lot smarter about what we do and we can continue to implement good EV tech and other similar things. We do, however, need to make sure that the Hoy Paloy isn't expecting some sort of energy panacea in the next few years....it ain't happening ...in fact, we are stuck with hydrocarbons for many decades as far as I can tell. I am, however, hoping for the ability out where I live in the country to have a number of back up charging cells (AKA Tesla) installed in my barn...and when they have reliable all wheel drive EV's I will probably buy one...but I doubt I will get rid of my back up ICE pickup.


Illogical and clear as mud.

No elaboration on what the energy alternatives actually are...
"Hydrocarbons from all sorts of sources"....there are no other sources.

"I am a full believer we need to move away from oil and gas as our main energy source..." but you have no idea what it is. LOL

FAIL. Total Collapse.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 26 Jan 2022, 00:11:38

Chesapeake beefs up shale gas play with $2.5 bln Chief E&D deal

Jan 25 (Reuters) - Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK.O) said on Tuesday it will buy privately held oil and gas producer Chief E&D Holdings LP for about $2.5 billion expanding its position in the gas-rich shale plays of the U.S. northeast.

The acquisition by Chesapeake, a U.S. shale gas and oil producer that emerged from bankruptcy just last year, underscores the recovery of parts of the energy industry as commodity prices surge.

Reuters reported exclusively last week that Chesapeake was in advanced talks to buy Chief E&D.

Chesapeake will buy the company and some stakes held by Chief E&D's asset partner for $2 billion in cash and about 9.44 million worth of shares. That represents a deal value of about $2.6 billion, according to Reuters calculations, based on Chesapeake's last close.

Chesapeake also agreed to sell its Powder River Basin assets in Wyoming to Continental Resources Inc (CLR.N) for about $450 million on Tuesday.

Chief E&D, founded and controlled by Texan Trevor Rees-Jones, was launched in 1994. The company operates in the Marcellus shale in northeastern Pennsylvania and has around 600,000 net acres, producing more than 1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas.

Chesapeake has focused on natural gas production, a return to its roots as a company founded in 1989.

The sale of Chief E&D will be the latest combination of U.S. natural gas producers in the last few months. Chesapeake last year bought Vine Energy for $615 million, while EQT Corp (EQT.N) bought Alta Resources.

The Chief E&D deal will immediately add to production and cash flow, the companies said, adding that they expect annual cost savings of $50 million to $70 million.

Chesapeake also said it plans to raise its annual dividend by about 14% from the second quarter to $2 per share.

REUTERS
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Doly » Tue 01 Feb 2022, 16:32:55

No elaboration on what the energy alternatives actually are...
"Hydrocarbons from all sorts of sources"....there are no other sources.

"I am a full believer we need to move away from oil and gas as our main energy source..." but you have no idea what it is. LOL


Valid point. Rockdoc, what sort of energy mix do you imagine is workable in the coming two decades?
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 02 Feb 2022, 17:18:04

Doly - I'll jump in ahead of Doc. Take a look at US natgas production history from 1900 to 2021. And I'll explain some of the curve. The 1950 to early 70's ramp up came from exploiting conventional reservoir trends (including offshore). And the static until 2008 or so. That production came from progressively smaller convention reservoirs that were more easily discovered due to new technology...essentially seismic data. And then the ramp up from the horizontal development from unconventional reservoirs...the shale formations.

And where are we today? Can't really say from the graph. Looks like shales may be peaking. But need to see about another 10 years or so to be more confident.

But this brings us back to you question:"...what sort of energy mix do you imagine is workable in the coming two decades?" Obviously without natgas supplementing oil, hydro and coal for the last 70 YEARS the US economy would have struggled to have grown as it has. The future? Not much hydro left to develop. Oil? Again the site is called "PEAK OIL". Coal? It is supposedly the worst sin we can play. And nuclear the second worst sin...especially by those who will have to pay for it, including waste disposal and decommissioning. So then it seems like solar, wind and maybe natgas. So, who wants to bet their (and their children/grandchildren) economic future on wind and solar ramping up fast enough? And do so while hoping natgas hangs in there for another 30+ years?

Yeah, I know I answered your question with a question. Sorry about that. LOL.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Pops » Thu 03 Feb 2022, 09:35:43

ROCKMAN wrote:So, who wants to bet their (and their children/grandchildren) economic future on wind and solar ramping up fast enough? And do so while hoping natgas hangs in there for another 30+ years?

Way back wasn't Boone Pickens betting on a big gas bust? I can't figure out why all of a sudden there is the gas problem when it was going to be the "brige fuel" - bridge to nowhere more like.

But to the question about who wants to bet that solar will ramp up, I think betting that "they" will fix things is probably the wrong bet. Here is a kid talking about a pretty cheap PV system.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 04 Feb 2022, 00:29:54

Pops wrote: I can't figure out why all of a sudden there is the gas problem when it was going to be the "brige fuel" - bridge to nowhere more like.


There actually is plenty of natural gas......remember it was exactly 10 years ago in 2012 when Obama boasted that we had enough gas for the next hundred years, making the US energy independent. BUT, so much natural gas came on the market that the NG price plummeted, and when the price of NG fell too low exploration and development of new NG resouces stopped.

Its a classic supply and demand story....now that the price of natural gas is going up again exploration and develop of new natural gas fields will begin again and soon there will be plenty of NG again.

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In 2012 Obama boasted that thanks to shale fracking the US had a 100 year supply of NG reserves.....but he forget to mention that the price of NG would still go up and down in response to supply and demand

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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby dissident » Fri 04 Feb 2022, 15:58:11

Elasticity of supply from tight gas plays ain't all it's cracked up to be.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 04 Feb 2022, 18:39:34

dissident wrote:Elasticity of supply from tight gas plays ain't all it's cracked up to be.


Good thing that apparently wasn't needed to make the US the world's largest producer of it first, then the largest exporter of it next!!
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 05 Feb 2022, 14:12:29

coffeeguyzz wrote:Pipelines ... more precisely, lack of.

Canada has an asston of natgas that still ships into the US.

Of course, the LNG plant in Boston harbor brings in gas from Trinidad, Yemen, Russia, cuz the stuff a short car ride away is that stinkin' no good fracked stuff.

Better to pay $175/mmbtu spot on January 5 at Transco Zone 6 than $4 bucks everywhere else.

But financials can change very rapidly, and unexpectedly. Not that many years ago, NG was generally considered "dirt cheap", and many producers were really hurting. Articles I read were NOT expecting major price rises any time soon.

And here we are. I was shocked at my high NG bill recently, but between it being cold in recent weeks (for here) and what NG prices have been recently, it makes sense, whether I like it or not .

To change such things takes some serious time in terms of planning, permitting, building, etc. for enough pipelines to make a major difference. And to anyone contemplating doing that, there's PLENTY of financial risk -- what if NG prices plummet again and the payoff period for new NG pipelines goes from years to decades?

As long as utilities can just pass on high prices to consumers, it's only when the long term financial risk looks WELL worth it that I'd expect major changes, vs. building lots of US NG pipelines to "alleviate high NG prices" to occur.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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