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Has Global Warming Peaked?

Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Doly » Fri 14 Jan 2022, 14:29:05

Are your lifestyle changes draconian, or your advocacy of better lifestyles in general, or just your discussion of expected consequences with, maybe a doomer slant?


My "draconian" lifestyle consists of not flying, not driving a car (actually, I can't drive), and being vegetarian. Being vegetarian still gets me funny comments on occasion, though it's far more acceptable because plenty of people are vegetarian these days for religious reasons. Not flying is what gets to people the most. What people seem to have real trouble with, is the fact that I'm not posing or signalling belonging to any particular tribe, but just acting in accordance to what I believe is likely to happen in the future.

People are very comfortable with others talking about things like climate change much like they talk about their religion or belonging to their political party: it's all talk. We all know that in actual fact, it's extremely rare to meet the Christian that genuinely believes he or she will go to heaven after they die, because they don't approach dying people with specific messages to give to relatives when they meet them in heaven or any such things, the way you do when a person is travelling to an actual place that exists. And in the same way, it often happens that political activists will happily behave in ways that contradict the supposed beliefs of their political party, because it's all for show. It can really freak people out when somebody really behaves as if certain things are true.

I don't generally go preaching, because if even the supposedly "green" people I know can give plenty of excuses for flying, what's the point in trying to convince anyone else? And I don't go pressuring green people not to fly, I just make a comment when they say they've just flown somewhere along the lines of: "That isn't supposed to be very good for climate change," in a disappointed tone. Which is guaranteed to make them as defensive as you've ever seen them. The problem is, I make them realise I'm more serious about it than they are, and they can't handle it.

As for talking about expected consequences, I've returned for long enough to this forum for you to notice how much I talk about expected consequences, even in a forum about energy issues. If people are not interested in a topic, I'm not going to bother to talk about it. And I don't go for the catastrophic doom, I go for trying to find out what is a realistic worst case scenario. And then I encounter people like you that refuse to accept that even a mildly bad scenario is even possible. Well, if you don't want to hear it, you won't. It isn't necessary to talk about things to survive them. I'll just shut up and adjust my calculations to include some scenarios even more negative than the previous ones.

Actually, maybe that's the problem. Maybe I should have gone on and on and on incessantly to everyone I know, on the grounds that repetition and brainwashing works. Not let other people set the agenda of the conversation, but let them know that I'm far more important than they are, and my opinions are what count, and I pick the subject. Problem is, it's a difficult trick to pull for a foreigner.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 14 Jan 2022, 16:49:24

To me the “calculations” see straight forward.

Today our global foot print is about 1.75 Earths.
This is calculated without regard to the damage we are doing to the eco system, which will degrade Earths ability to support life.
It also does not work include damage to croplands which we are using at 10 to 40 times the renewal rate. In other words for every crop we should leave thr land fallow for 20 to 40 years.

Todays population is about 8 billion.
8 /1.75 is 4.6 billion, to retain current renewable resource usage sith zero degradation.
4.6/10 is 460 million to retain current life style while allowing farmlands to recuperate, this is a BEST CASE scenario.

Thats a 95% reduction in population, ignoring climate change or depleting aquifers.

Not in my lifetime, but sometime.

No matter how you cut it, we are in for a rude awakening.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Doly » Sat 15 Jan 2022, 17:25:55

I don't agree with every Democrat idea but in the realm of US politics must you take the good with the bad


That sort of thinking is exactly what got the US in the current mess. This candidate is far from good, but it's better than the other one, so please vote. It's a race to the bottom.

Little wonder that there are people questioning even the fundamentals of how the US is run by now. People are just coming to the conclusion that the whole system is rotten.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 15 Jan 2022, 18:52:59

First off what good is mixed in with this bad?
I see the left media now focusing on January sixth as a horror that has us on the edge of a cliff that will "Destroy Democracy".
They are doing this not because it is anywhere near true but because the Biden administration is failing miserably on all fronts and they wish to distract us from the reality of it.
I see a poll that has Biden's approval rating at 33 percent and I wonder if 33% of Americans are that nearsighted or stupid.
Note that I never voted for Trump or would, but Biden/Harris has not been an improvement.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 15 Jan 2022, 22:39:38

Newfie wrote:Now these are nice people, well educated, who listen to NPR and support the far left agenda. But they are simply reacting to their herd. What drives them are their social survival instincts, to blend in with like minded folks. To repeat the mantras.

There are a few among them who can be touched, moved. Those who can see something of the complexity. Those conversations can happen, but they take a lot of care and the. The folks slip back into the herd once again.


BOY did you just describe peak oilers of yore as well. Nice people, educated in what they thouoght they needed to know, which was anyone that supported their belief. And reacting to the herd across the board otherwise. in 15 years they HAVE changed a little though, so maybe there is hope with the Democans and Republicrats as well?
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 15 Jan 2022, 22:48:03

Plantagenet wrote:The planet is heading inexorably into a furnace of global warming because global CO2 emissions continue to rise rapidly.
CHEERS!


And you keep up the good work contributing to it while pretending to care Plant!!

What's up for your globe trotting next, some baby seal bashing with diesel powered machinery (sans exhaust and catalytic converters of course), maybe running the harpoon on one of those Japanese whaling research vessels? Now THAT would be a real feather in your "how many ways can I get mine before the permafrost under my cabin melts" exercise!
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 15 Jan 2022, 22:53:34

theluckycountry wrote:

Image

A 70 year chart of coal consumption in the US. An inexorable rise, totally independent of whatever political party was in power. This is the reality and a few campaign promises and a few million dollar projects instigated by congress mean nothing, that is just smoke and mirrors.


Umm....you did notice that the US has been trending DOWN in coal consumption (peak demand anyone?) for like....more than a decade now right, right? So no, no INEXORABLE rise....just the usual...a rise....and then a fall. As happens with all non-renewable mineral extraction. Duh. They don't teach Aussies logic and words and stuff?

Economics made it happen, just as it can make other things happen (good and bad) and rich Australians can continue to burn oil to do nothing more important than run around on high powered toys. Can you imagine that? 6 peak oils this century, and silly doomers hiding in the country can still zoom around the paved roads that those 6 peak oils coulldn't kill either?
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 15 Jan 2022, 23:02:25

theluckycountry wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:It doesn't help that various politicians lie and claim that they are going to fix the climate change problem.


Or that you pretend to care. Don't you have some global jet setting to do?


Or another motorbike to buy! I'm getting another one adam, why not, I have a huge house all to myself and plenty of room in the garage down below.


There you go!! You and Plant should get along fine! Myself, I've got 3 in the garage right now, but I can't claim ownership of all of them. I've had as many as 6, but you know, I'm not young anymore, and haven't been to the track in awhile. Switched back over to elderly street rider, enjoying the wind in the remnants of my hair in mountain rides during nice days. <sigh>

theluckycountry wrote: I'm getting one of those big BMW adventure tourer bikes, 1250cc, man do they suck gas but what the hell, Australia doesn't have many consumers like america does so what we do down here is irrelevant as far as the planet is concerned. If I had my time over I'd buy a petrol station, just so I could smell the gasoline all day long :)


Yeah!! I have more than a little time on a RS1100S myself, but am not much for maintenance on those things (like clutches, endless throttle body balancing and valve adjustments, etc etc) and parts costs. and they are just SO expensive to begin with, even though I bought mine used. But the folks who like preening with BMW gear and expensive bikes and stuff sure seem to like them.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 15 Jan 2022, 23:18:12

Doly wrote:
Are your lifestyle changes draconian, or your advocacy of better lifestyles in general, or just your discussion of expected consequences with, maybe a doomer slant?


As for talking about expected consequences, I've returned for long enough to this forum for you to notice how much I talk about expected consequences, even in a forum about energy issues. If people are not interested in a topic, I'm not going to bother to talk about it. And I don't go for the catastrophic doom, I go for trying to find out what is a realistic worst case scenario. And then I encounter people like you that refuse to accept that even a mildly bad scenario is even possible.


You are completely wrong. I can detail scenarios that are absolute global disasters, and the parameters that underpin such scenarios. What modeler worth spit can't?

You appear to have mistaken my questions for some brand of overall optimism. Or perhaps just because I don't buy into near term peak oil scenarios, and therefore don't discuss the geologic, technological and economic components of them?

Doly wrote:
Well, if you don't want to hear it, you won't. It isn't necessary to talk about things to survive them. I'll just shut up and adjust my calculations to include some scenarios even more negative than the previous ones.


Please...don't shut up. You appear to be one of the few on this forum who has a well thought out position for the information available to you, have some technical understanding and ability to model that information, and can explain it. Assigning value to it that matches it to the physics underpinning everything from the functioning of the economy or the geology and technology might be a bit of a stretch...but that is entirely something else.

You understand that Dennis is about the only other person around here who can discuss modeling from the technical side rather than the "point and scream DOOM!!!" routine that has been part and parcel of peak oil since soon after the internet was invented?
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 15 Jan 2022, 23:21:02

vtsnowedin wrote: Note that I never voted for Trump or would, but Biden/Harris has not been an improvement.


Sure it has. Better the usual run of the mill incompetent than deliberate malice.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 17 Jan 2022, 10:09:32

Doly wrote:
I don't agree with every Democrat idea but in the realm of US politics must you take the good with the bad


That sort of thinking is exactly what got the US in the current mess. This candidate is far from good, but it's better than the other one, so please vote. It's a race to the bottom.

Little wonder that there are people questioning even the fundamentals of how the US is run by now. People are just coming to the conclusion that the whole system is rotten.

Not sure who said take the good with bad, but it is the only way to keep any faith in our crappy system. Typically we get to choose between 2 platforms. To think I'm going to agree with everything one of them pushes is pretty silly., the best I can do is vote then go with whoever wins and hope for the best—the right is obviously much less satisfied with their past choices because they are voting to burn the whole thing down, nullify elections and install a monarch, by force if necessary.

Parliamentary systems seem much more representative. My views could be in the minority but it might still get a voice in a parliament. In the US most of my views are held by a majority yet because we aren't all that democratic or representative —and because corporations now get to vote—they can and are regularly vetoed by a minority at multiple turns.

I'm left and only subscribe to a portion of the left's agenda, and obviously the people on the right feel the same way. Not hard to understand that the old republican Jim Crow cum Chamber of Commerce platform wasn't doing it for the undiplomaed. They changed their demagogue from Bush/Romney to trump because at least he said he was going to give everyone Big Beautiful Healthcare and lock up the mexican rapists. But what did they get? A corporate tax break.

Back to this topic, republicans and leaners don't believe in gw, don't believe extreme weather has increased so in that area their views now match the views bought fair and square by the Chamber and fossil lobby and sold retail by Mourdoch, Limbaugh, Clear Channel and all the rest.
A large majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (85%) say extreme weather events across the country have been occurring more often than in the past. Far fewer Republicans and GOP-leaning independents (44%) say the same; 52% of Republicans instead say such events are happening about as often as in the past.


Not that evidence trumps belief but here is some anyway:

Image https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4715300347
Last edited by Pops on Mon 17 Jan 2022, 10:49:27, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 17 Jan 2022, 10:41:29

Doly wrote:As for talking about expected consequences, I've returned for long enough to this forum for you to notice how much I talk about expected consequences, even in a forum about energy issues. If people are not interested in a topic, I'm not going to bother to talk about it. And I don't go for the catastrophic doom, I go for trying to find out what is a realistic worst case scenario.

This site has ossified, not many left and of those most are more interested in bitcoin and their portfolio than peak oil.

The oldest line here is "just wait, we'll be overrun as soon as people wake up to PO."

I hope you stick around as you aren't as stuck in your rut as the rest of us.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Doly » Mon 17 Jan 2022, 18:05:56

Or perhaps just because I don't buy into near term peak oil scenarios, and therefore don't discuss the geologic, technological and economic components of them?


You said that no peak oil till 2050 was credible. That is way too optimistic from the data I've seen.

Assigning value to it that matches it to the physics underpinning everything from the functioning of the economy or the geology and technology might be a bit of a stretch...but that is entirely something else.


If you're asking about my personal Theory of Everything, I'd personally pick the Lotka-Volterra equations, with foxes equated to links, and rabbits equated to nodes in a network, and an additional equation to represent available resources (to keep the rabbits and foxes analogy, grass gets its own equation). They work as a pretty good Swiss Army knife to explain an awful lot of useful stuff, and the network stuff is real-life useful and not very well known. They include the logistic curve, useful not just for peak oil but as a very handy approximation to the Gaussian bell curve. If you look at them in the right way, you have a tiny pocket LTG model in them. A version of them would be Daisyworld. Another version would be Peter Turchin's cliodynamics (historical dynamics). I think they may also match as part of Dirac's equations of the electron, but I really have to double-check on that, I'm not a huge fan of quantum mechanics.

You understand that Dennis is about the only other person around here who can discuss modeling from the technical side rather than the "point and scream DOOM!!!" routine that has been part and parcel of peak oil since soon after the internet was invented?


Thanks for that. Can you point me to a thread where he discusses his modeling?
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 17 Jan 2022, 20:55:49

Doly wrote:
Or perhaps just because I don't buy into near term peak oil scenarios, and therefore don't discuss the geologic, technological and economic components of them?


You said that no peak oil till 2050 was credible. That is way too optimistic from the data I've seen.


I did say that. And it is true. I imagine that one of the disadvantages of the independent researcher is a limited budget with which to acquire the best commercial information available.

Doly wrote:
Assigning value to it that matches it to the physics underpinning everything from the functioning of the economy or the geology and technology might be a bit of a stretch...but that is entirely something else.


If you're asking about my personal Theory of Everything, I'd personally pick the Lotka-Volterra equations, with foxes equated to links, and rabbits equated to nodes in a network, and an additional equation to represent available resources (to keep the rabbits and foxes analogy, grass gets its own equation). They work as a pretty good Swiss Army knife to explain an awful lot of useful stuff, and the network stuff is real-life useful and not very well known. They include the logistic curve, useful not just for peak oil but as a very handy approximation to the Gaussian bell curve. If you look at them in the right way, you have a tiny pocket LTG model in them. A version of them would be Daisyworld. Another version would be Peter Turchin's cliodynamics (historical dynamics). I think they may also match as part of Dirac's equations of the electron, but I really have to double-check on that, I'm not a huge fan of quantum mechanics.


I will have to investigate some of those at the least a theoretical level, they might be interesting. I do stochastic modeling and as a XOM researcher testing my models once said, "oh...you simulate EVERYTHING"...which sounded like a fair description. As a reservoir engineer modeling oil and gas production, I can't say that theoretical techniques do me much good compared to plain ol', been around since my first Craft and Hawkins textbook was handed to me, reservoir engineering principles. Start with those, model all of the geoscience's related resource categories including discovery process modeling as researched by Arps and Roberts and used by most everyone for discrete accumulations, the USGS solving the field reserve growth problem at both the theoretical and practical levels (reserve growth, as it turns out, rulz), and then build on the economic overlay. That's the real kicker, and the thing needed to stop getting peak oil wrong. Learned it from some private industry folks who couldn't get global supply analytics sorted out, but damn could they do econmics of oil and gas. So I began a career learning economics, and how to apply them to the problem.

Doly wrote:
You understand that Dennis is about the only other person around here who can discuss modeling from the technical side rather than the "point and scream DOOM!!!" routine that has been part and parcel of peak oil since soon after the internet was invented?


Thanks for that. Can you point me to a thread where he discusses his modeling?


Of course. You'll have to wade through quite a bit of idiot trolling from the likes of Mustang19, but in between Dennis and I were going through his work, some of my ideas on why peakers got it wrong and will continue getting it wrong if they don't fricking LEARN some stuff, and then we began conversing through PMs here and then exchanged emails.

If you put Mustang19 on ignore, many posts of just bullshit will disappear and it'll make easier reading. Ignore mine where I was hassling Mustang as well, if you searched these threads and went looking for Dennis you'll see his explanations to my questions and whatnot.

Wolfcamp and Hubbert Part 1: wolfcamp-here-s-the-hubbert-curve-pt-1-t77846.html

Wolfcamp and Hubbert Part 2: wolfcamp-here-s-the-hubbert-curve-pt-2-t77847.html
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 18 Jan 2022, 02:13:02

China just set a new record for coal production......up over 7% from a year ago

china-coal-production-hits-record-avoid-energy-crisis

There is no way global warming in going to "peak" as long as record amounts of coal are being burned, and record amounts of CO2 are being emitted into the atmosphere.

Image
China just set a new record for coal production......

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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Doly » Wed 19 Jan 2022, 16:27:28

I imagine that one of the disadvantages of the independent researcher is a limited budget with which to acquire the best commercial information available.


I imagine that if you had such information, you could just explain the main data-points, instead of making vague sweeping offensive comments.

reserve growth, as it turns out, rulz


Only for as long as the engineering doesn't get so complicated that all sorts of other things start falling apart.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 19 Jan 2022, 18:19:31

Pops wrote:
Parliamentary systems seem much more representative. My views could be in the minority but it might still get a voice in a parliament.


A lot of people point to the (former) success of the US as evidence the presidential system is the best, but in reality the success was due to the abundant oil and mineral base. If Japan or Germany had such a natural bounty within their borders they would no doubt have won WW2 in their theaters of operation, nuclear weapons aside. Logistics won WWII, Millions of tons of steel, powered by oil.

Timing also aided in the success of the US. What luck to have come out on top after the war with the sea lanes under their control, with bases established all over Europe and Asia, and the only competition left being the tired old empires of Europe that lay in ruins. It was a perfect setup really. They had control from the West coast all the way around and up to the Franco-German border.

But that was then and the US has squandered it's incredible luck, it's just a husk now, a dilapidated shopping mall. To keep the facade going they blow the tops off mountains for coal, pollute the ground water with fracking chemicals, turn their farmlands into franken-food factories. When you look at each element by itself it's a hair raiser, when you add them all together it's an unmitigated disaster! If you set out to deliberately destroy an entire continent by conventional means I doubt you could come up with a more efficient method than using the reserves of fossil fuels to power the destruction.

A cursory look at the old established nations like Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, even England still, shows a different story. These nations actively resist the American model of national destruction. They push back against GMO foods, against fracking, against turning their nations into concrete paved shopping malls. The living standards as well point to the success of these parliamentary systems. They are corrupt for sure, but the system lends itself less to corruption than all the presidential systems around the globe it seems. Perhaps with some it's the Monarchy sitting at the top of the pyramid of power? True they are a figurehead, but here in Australia the Governor General retains the power to dismiss a federal government if it gets too out of line. This power was exercised back in the 1970's when the opposition blocked supply (money) and there was no effective way around the problem unless the opposition caved in to the Sitting governments demands. In America you don't have that problem. There all the politicians in power from either side of the floor work in concert to ensure the money gets printed and their masters are served. They have no higher authority to answer to except the bankers.

Other examples of Presidential systems are Mexico; Venezuela, Brazil, Philippians, Russia, South Africa... If anyone can find an example of one that is not actually corrupt to the core and on the brink of collapse I'd be interested to know? The Presidential system was an interesting experiment, but the results are in, it's a failure in the short term even.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 19 Jan 2022, 19:11:16

Doly wrote:
I imagine that one of the disadvantages of the independent researcher is a limited budget with which to acquire the best commercial information available.


I imagine that if you had such information, you could just explain the main data-points, instead of making vague sweeping offensive comments.


Of course I have such information. And I can talk about it in a vague and sweeping way if you have any specific questions. Handing out main data points from propritary data sets? That's a no-no. And offensive comments? :) Well...maybe on occasion. But you are talking on this topic with someone banned on every peak oil website there was for knowing in real time the ins and outs of why the earlier peak oils claimed this century were nonsense. And that includes TOD. I recommended a scientist of at least national renown and expert on Hubbert and his work, and resource scarcity in general. He was in Australia, and after they told me that such a speaker would emit too much CO2 flying from the other side of the planet, can you imagine how many of them flew to the conference? Noticing such duplicitous behavior isn't appreciated much by zealots.

Doly wrote:
reserve growth, as it turns out, rulz


Only for as long as the engineering doesn't get so complicated that all sorts of other things start falling apart.


A reasonable caveat. Once course, such a caveat would also mean that all Happy McPeakster wet dreams would probably be occuring at the same time.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 20 Jan 2022, 10:44:18

theluckycountry wrote:A lot of people point to the (former) success of the US as evidence the presidential system is the best, but in reality the success was due to the abundant oil and mineral base.

I've not really studied other countries politics, why would I, I'm American after all. But our longish success story is mostly as you say about virgin resources and private rather than government/sovereign exploitation. The other thread is we were a for the longest while a white protestant majority country, Most of my family came in the 1600s from Scotland and England and were the picture of white, religious fanatics. We were 150 years a slave economy, another 100 Jim Crow. Back when America was great both parties were run by white men and everyone else kept their place. What a country.

On'y in the last 50 -60 years has that begun to change, the parties were oddly formed to begin with years ago on one side were small farmers, labor and racists, and on the other side were mostly educated, wealthy business class... and black people. The realignment in the 50-80s has mostly been a complete flip, with educated city people and minorities now on the D side and rural, religious whites, and the profiteers of extraction on the R.

The anarchy of the common mob —otherwise known as democracy—has always skeered the begeesus out of Republicans—hence our system of minority rule. As is obvious in the R parties continuing push to disenfranchise as many as possible, actual democracy is bad for business. Majorities of the country were trending toward some serious action against warming. With the recent low point of attempting to delete entire slates of electors and kill people if needed the extractors are as powerful as they've been since the last gilded age. The funny thing is how Rs rail against the nanny state yet worship an authoritarian wannabe.

At any rate republicanism obviously benefits the extractors, if it wasn't for minority rulle no telling what the mob would do...

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https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2021 ... -and-work/
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 20 Jan 2022, 12:31:41



WILLING TO MAKE CHANGES 80%. Hahahahahahaha.

A common sight in libtard california in January is outdoor heaters. What a great use of fossil fuel.
Damn F350 driving republican redneck. Why doesn't he change? Lets drive in our brand new imported BMW to our favorite restaurant to sip on imported wine and plan our next overseas vacation. And let's also lament to the world how much we are willing to change.
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