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Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Be Worthless by 2036

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Be Worthless by 20

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 31 Dec 2021, 06:06:58

Pops wrote:Eventually a capitalist world made by robots and AI will grind to a halt.

Yes and that will be a real fun to watch.
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Re: Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Be Worthless by 20

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 31 Dec 2021, 09:13:19

BrianC wrote:Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Become Worthless by 2036 in Net Zero Transition


A pretty shallow article? No mention of fossil fuels' other uses, and they have quite a few, like blacktop roads, pesticides, plastics, fertilizer, all things which are Zero emissions. At current consumption the remaining fuels could provide these sectors for hundreds of years perhaps. How much of a barrel? 21% according to this Canadian report https://www.capp.ca/oil/uses-for-oil/

Another link
Petrochemicals are used in millions of products, from plastics, detergents, shampoos and makeup to industrial solvents, lubricants, pharmaceuticals, fertilizer and carpeting. Over the next 20 years, oil company BP projects that this market will grow by 16% to 20%.
https://theconversation.com/oil-compani ... ete-153598

Anyway the whole stupid article from the Guardian bases it's case on the opinion we "can" transition to 100% renewable, which of course is a total delusion understood by anyone with half a brain and no stake in the alternative market. Every study I have ever read on the "renew-ability" of solar panels was based on dollar equivalents (cheap oil) and not on energy equivalents. I don't know why we even discuss half this crap anymore...
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Re: Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Be Worthless by 20

Unread postby Doly » Fri 31 Dec 2021, 15:59:32

I like the idea of governments capitalizing their citizens, very much like banks do, but without restriction. The program could work something like this: when you first become of age, you are eligible to borrow for a purpose. The purpose would be to borrow toward something for which the money you borrowed was actually capital.


Giving the same opportunity to everyone sounds fair, but in practice it may not be. Somebody from a rich family would have their family's money to fall back on if they made a mistake. While somebody in a poor area may find increased risks in their area, and be more likely to find themselves unable to repay the loan, through no fault of their own. It's my observation that loans seem like very different things to poor people and to rich people.
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Re: Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Be Worthless by 20

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 31 Dec 2021, 22:36:35

BrianC wrote:Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Become Worthless by 2036 in Net Zero Transition (theguardian.com) 7
Posted by msmash on Friday November 05, 2021 @02:46PM from the closer-look dept.
About half of the world's fossil fuel assets will be worthless by 2036 under a net zero transition, according to research. From a report:
Countries that are slow to decarbonise will suffer but early movers will profit; the study finds that renewables and freed-up investment will more than make up for the losses to the global economy. It highlights the risk of producing far more oil and gas than required for future demand, which is estimated to leave $11tn-$14tn in so-called stranded assets -- infrastructure, property and investments where the value has fallen so steeply they must be written off. The lead author, Jean-Francois Mercure of the University of Exeter, said the shift to clean energy would benefit the world economy overall, but it would need to be handled carefully to prevent regional pockets of misery and possible global instability. "In a worst-case scenario, people will keep investing in fossil fuels until suddenly the demand they expected does not materialise and they realise that what they own is worthless. Then we could see a financial crisis on the scale of 2008," he said, warning oil capitals such as Houston could suffer the same fate as Detroit after the decline of the US car industry unless the transition is carefully managed.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... transition



This is just another round of ETP thinking and I can not understand why otherwise intelligent people take it seriously.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Be Worthless by 20

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 01 Jan 2022, 00:36:24

"Its tough to make predictions, especially about the future ----Yogi Berra

I don't know what's going to happen in 2036 but I know what's going to happen next year.......

I predict oil consumption will continue to increase and the world will set a new record in fossil fuel consumption next year.

I predict the return to growth in oil consumption will drive up oil prices next year.

I predict more CO2 will be emitted due to fossil fuel consumption then ever before

I predict global warming will increase to a new high next year.

AND....I predict senile old Joe Biden will continue to do incredibly stupid things next year.

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I can predict the future ...... but only one year ahead at a time!

Cheers!
250 million thousand people have died of covid---Joe Biden
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama

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Re: Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Be Worthless by 20

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 03 Jan 2022, 20:28:08

Plantagenet wrote:"Its tough to make predictions, especially about the future ----Yogi Berra

I don't know what's going to happen in 2036 but I know what's going to happen next year.......

I predict oil consumption will continue to increase and the world will set a new record in fossil fuel consumption next year.

I predict the return to growth in oil consumption will drive up oil prices next year.

I predict more CO2 will be emitted due to fossil fuel consumption then ever before

I predict global warming will increase to a new high next year.

AND....I predict senile old Joe Biden will continue to do incredibly stupid things next year.

Image
I can predict the future ...... but only one year ahead at a time!

Cheers!

By 2036 we should be getting to somewhere around 50% or so of new car production being electrified (BEV or PHEV). That will help AGW and reduce global oil demand relative to what it would have been.

BUT, we'll still need a hell of a lot of crude oil for planes -- especially long haul jets, high performance military aircraft, etc. And asphalt and petrochemicals, etc. for many decades to come.

I continue to hold some oil majors for the dividends and as an inflation hedge, even though I believe BEV's are very much going to take over in the next several decades (it will take longer in the third world, IMO).

So instead of considering such oil assets "stranded", I consider them saved by economic forces (thankfully) until oil gets more scarce and demand UNstrands them with higher prices. Because I very much doubt that the demand for things like affordable plastics and cheap roads is going away any time soon: internet or not, and stories of flying cars or not.

....

And since you insist on bringing right wing politics into it, since as usual, you can't help yourself:

I predict that whatever "dumb" things Biden does in 2022, he'll still have about 100 IQ points on Trump, re practicality. And about 10X re frequency of truth telling vs. making things up and claiming FACTS to the contrary are "fake news", etc.

Of course, those hip deep in science denial, far right agitprop, etc. will pretend that's not so, as per usual.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Be Worthless by 20

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 03 Jan 2022, 23:49:44

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
I predict that whatever "dumb" things Biden does in 2022, he'll still have about 100 IQ points on Trump, re practicality.


How is Joe Biden going to do well on an IQ test when he can't remember anything? Joe Biden is a laughingstock around the world because he is a senile old fool who gets lost when he attends international meetings and can't ever quite remember anyone's name.

Outcast_Searcher wrote: Joe Biden....about 10X re frequency of truth telling vs. making things up


Joe Biden claimed last July the pandemic was over. Hey....he was lying, wasn't he?

And Joe Biden claimed when he rain for president that he had a "plan" to "end the pandemic".

What is Joe's plan to end the pandemic?

Was Joe lying when he said he had a plan to end the pandemic?

Or is what we are experiencing now Joe's plan?

In case you didn't notice we've got record levels of covid infections occurring across the US right now......was that Joe Biden's secret plan all along?

Image
Is this Joe Biden's secret plan to end covid?

Cheers!
250 million thousand people have died of covid---Joe Biden
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama

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Re: Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Be Worthless by 20

Unread postby dissident » Tue 04 Jan 2022, 12:39:48

Image

The US has a shockingly small fraction of power from PV. I would have thought that its advantageous geography (Texas, New Mexico, etc.) would have resulted in more investment compared to Scandinavia.

Green utopians like the ones afflicting U-rope are a disaster. Investment in nuclear power is the only sane option until the storage problem is substantially addressed. I see lots of hype about new storage tech but there is nothing to show for it year after year.
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Re: Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Be Worthless by 20

Unread postby suxs » Wed 05 Jan 2022, 01:15:43

Planty, always the same schoolyard tantrums, cheap shots, and fake quotes. Try finding for yourself a girlfriend. It would do wonders to ease your overflowing rage and anger.
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Re: Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Be Worthless by 20

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 05 Jan 2022, 17:52:11

Worthless??? Interesting expectation given recent FF export bans by Mexico, Indonesia and others. And of course no energy worries in the EU. LOL. So many folks seem to live on another planet. At least in their minds.
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Re: Half World's Fossil Fuel Assets Could Be Worthless by 20

Unread postby Doly » Fri 07 Jan 2022, 15:57:20

Investment in nuclear power is the only sane option until the storage problem is substantially addressed. I see lots of hype about new storage tech but there is nothing to show for it year after year.


That's because people are obsessed with batteries and with new stuff. In actual fact, hydro storage has been around forever. Molten salt storage is also viable. Efficiency in both cases is less than ideal, but they're both cheap options. Also, choosing windfarm sites that are spread enough reduces a lot the need for storage.

Not saying that nuclear is not needed. Clearly it is. But storage is not as big a problem as some people say.
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