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THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 10 Dec 2021, 22:17:54

On demand destruction, the working commuter has little choice unless a car pool is practical or a smaller more efficient car can be substituted. Both seldom the case.
What actually is the demand that is first destroyed is the optional trips that people take that are not driven by necessity. Three trips to the mall in a week can become one once the price of gas begins to hurt. Better planning like doing that shopping on the way home from work vs. a separate trip a day later becomes more then common sense.
The average person can probably reduce their total miles driven by ten to twenty percent when pressed into thinking about it. That ten to twenty percent reduction multiplied by a hundred million drivers will reduce demand enough to drop the price of gas without reducing the days worked or the amount of groceries hauled home.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Doly » Sat 11 Dec 2021, 09:05:08

On demand destruction, the working commuter has little choice unless a car pool is practical or a smaller more efficient car can be substituted. Both seldom the case.


It's my observation that lots of people have a bigger car than they actually need. And for the purposes of commuting, often a scooter, that uses little fuel, would be good enough for the purpose, but most people don't even contemplate the possibility, in spite that some scooters are specifically designed to be comfortable commuter vehicles.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Pops » Sat 11 Dec 2021, 09:43:10

vtsnowedin wrote:On demand destruction, the working commuter has little choice unless a car pool is practical or a smaller more efficient car can be substituted. Both seldom the case.
What actually is the demand that is first destroyed is the optional trips that people take that are not driven by necessity. Three trips to the mall in a week can become one once the price of gas begins to hurt. Better planning like doing that shopping on the way home from work vs. a separate trip a day later becomes more then common sense.
The average person can probably reduce their total miles driven by ten to twenty percent when pressed into thinking about it. That ten to twenty percent reduction multiplied by a hundred million drivers will reduce demand enough to drop the price of gas without reducing the days worked or the amount of groceries hauled home.

Energy prices are up 33% in the last year, have you changed habits?
We don't drive much normally and only make about half the average income but we have changed nothing.

High fuel price can causes a slight reduction in passenger miles. This reviews studies that indicate a 10% increase in price = 2.5% reduction quickly. But a 300% increase doesn't reduce miles by 75%, just look at 2005-15.
Image

The chart below shows that real GDP was either stagnant or falling for the 10 years of high priced oil —a time when trillions in real estate bubble money and then trillions more in stimulus were attempting to inflate the economy.

Image



The reason is passenger vehicles are only about 25% of consumption if I remember. High fuel prices lead to everything inflation because everything comes from somewhere else, nothing is local. That increased transport cost causes Inflation that drags the economy. It happened just 10 years ago when every delivery had a fuel surcharge.

Image


It is happening right this minute, oil is up and so is inflation—oil price isn't the only factor of course.

Anything that reduces or diverts disposable income by definition lowers other spending, and every bit of that other spending is someone's income
.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby malyessarah71 » Mon 13 Dec 2021, 11:58:15

With the price of oil above $50 a barrel, political instability in the Middle East on the rise, and little slack in the world oil economy, we need a new energy strategy. Fortunately, a new strategy is emerging using two new technologies.

Gas-electric hybrid engines and advanced-design wind turbines offer a way to wean ourselves from imported oil.

If over the next decade we convert the U.S. automobile fleet to gas-electric hybrids with the efficiency of today’s Toyota Prius, we could cut our gasoline use in half. No change in the number of vehicles, no change in miles driven just doing it more efficiently.

Several gas-electric hybrid car models are now on the market including the Toyota Prius, the Honda Insight and the hybrid version of the Honda Civic.

The Prius a midsize car on the cutting-edge of auto technology — gets an astounding 55 mpg in combined city/highway driving. No wonder lists of eager buyers are willing to wait six months or more for delivery.

With gas-electric hybrid vehicles now on the market, the stage is set for the second step to reduce oil dependence: the use of wind-generated electricity to power automobiles.

If we add to the gas-electric hybrid a plug-in capacity and a second battery to increase its electricity storage capacity, motorists could then do their commuting, shopping and other short-distance travel largely with electricity, saving gasoline for the occasional long trip.

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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby eltonwisk » Thu 16 Dec 2021, 10:33:47

If over the next decade we convert the U.S. automobile fleet to gas-electric hybrids with the efficiency of today’s Toyota Prius, we could cut our gasoline use in half.

No change in the number of vehicles, no change in miles driven just doing it more efficiently. Several gas-electric hybrid car models are now on the market including the Toyota Prius, the Honda Insight and the hybrid version of the Honda Civic.

The Prius a midsize car on the cutting-edge of auto technology gets an astounding 55 mpg in combined city/highway driving. No wonder lists of eager buyers are willing to wait six months or more for delivery.

With gas-electric hybrid vehicles now on the market, the stage is set for the second step to reduce oil dependence: the use of wind-generated electricity to power automobiles.

If we add to the gas-electric hybrid a plug-in capacity and a second battery to increase its electricity storage capacity, motorists could then do their commuting, shopping and other short-distance travel largely with electricity, saving gasoline for the occasional long trip.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby eltonwisk » Thu 16 Dec 2021, 10:37:11

If over the next decade we convert the U.S. automobile fleet to gas-electric hybrids with the efficiency of today’s Toyota Prius, we could cut our gasoline use in half.

No change in the number of vehicles, no change in miles driven — just doing it more efficiently. Several gas-electric hybrid car models are now on the market including the Toyota Prius, the Honda Insight and the hybrid version of the Honda Civic.

The Prius a midsize car on the cutting-edge of auto technology — gets an astounding 55 mpg in combined city/highway driving. No wonder lists of eager buyers are willing to wait six months or more for delivery.

With gas-electric hybrid vehicles now on the market, the stage is set for the second step to reduce oil dependence: the use of wind-generated electricity to power automobiles.

If we add to the gas-electric hybrid a plug-in capacity and a second battery to increase its electricity storage capacity, motorists could then do their commuting, shopping and other short-distance travel largely with electricity, saving gasoline for the occasional long trip.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Revi » Fri 24 Dec 2021, 05:15:16

The price of gas is actually cheaper than when it cost 25 cents. The value of a silver quarter from that time is about $4.15 now. Gas is not quite at that level yet in most of the country. People are freaking out, but the cost of that particular commodity is about the same or cheaper than it was back in the 60's here in the US. I don't think it will stay that way, but I just heard that because of the refinery fire in Texas gas could go over $4. Maybe as high as $4.15?

https://news.yahoo.com/major-industrial ... p_catchall
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 24 Dec 2021, 08:50:57

An apology from the Mods.

A couple of new posters contributed but their posts were not approved in a timely manner. Not sure how this slipped by us but slip it did.

Welcome aboard to the new posters.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Doly » Fri 24 Dec 2021, 11:36:39

The reason is passenger vehicles are only about 25% of consumption if I remember.


Really? According to this chart (admittedly, it puts together cars and light trucks, but surely light trucks can't be a big proportion of the fuel), it looks it must be at least half:

https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10566
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 24 Dec 2021, 14:16:59

Pops wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:On demand destruction, ......
.......././.
The average person can probably reduce their total miles driven by ten to twenty percent when pressed into thinking about it. That ten to twenty percent reduction multiplied by a hundred million drivers will reduce demand enough to drop the price of gas without reducing the days worked or the amount of groceries hauled home.



Energy prices are up 33% in the last year, have you changed habits?

Quite a bit actually. I let Covid lockdowns drive me to fully retire and this year I have reduced even my routine driving by about two thirds. I'm not driving 500 miles a month now vs the 2500= when I was working.

We don't drive much normally and only make about half the average income but we have changed nothing.

High fuel price can causes a slight reduction in passenger miles. This reviews studies that indicate a 10% increase in price = 2.5% reduction quickly. But a 300% increase doesn't reduce miles by 75%, just look at 2005-15.
Image

The chart below shows that real GDP was either stagnant or falling for the 10 years of high priced oil —a time when trillions in real estate bubble money and then trillions more in stimulus were attempting to inflate the economy.

Image



The reason is passenger vehicles are only about 25% of consumption if I remember. High fuel prices lead to everything inflation because everything comes from somewhere else, nothing is local. That increased transport cost causes Inflation that drags the economy. It happened just 10 years ago when every delivery had a fuel surcharge.

Image


It is happening right this minute, oil is up and so is inflation—oil price isn't the only factor of course.

Anything that reduces or diverts disposable income by definition lowers other spending, and every bit of that other spending is someone's income
.

People can't trade in their gas guzzlers the moment the price of gas rises as the cost of a trade is usually about $3000 reguardless of which way you are moving. $3000 will buy a lot of gas even at $4.00/g. So you get the small reduction first from skipped trips and car pooling etc. then if the high prices persist and people finish paying off their present vehicle they will move to the more economical vehicle. I do not recall a price hike for gas lasting anywhere near long enough to turn over of even a quarter of the fleet and today that quarter turnover takes three to four years.
Perhaps this time, with the Biden Administration's fixation on moving to EVs ,they will manage to keep it up until 2024.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Pops » Fri 24 Dec 2021, 14:56:10

Doly wrote:
The reason is passenger vehicles are only about 25% of consumption if I remember.


Really? According to this chart (admittedly, it puts together cars and light trucks, but surely light trucks can't be a big proportion of the fuel), it looks it must be at least half:

https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10566

You're right, sorry, I should have said passenger vehicles only account for 25% of total oil demand globally.

As a percentage of fuels they are as you say 40%, but there are lots of other uses.

I didn't really make the point very well anyway.
I was trying to say that higher fuel price does cause a small drop in passenger car miles, but you can't escape by simply driving less. Everything comes on ships trains and trucks from somewhere else and they all use oil.


IEA 2018 World Energy Outlook cited here
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Pops » Fri 24 Dec 2021, 15:10:05

vtsnowedin wrote: People can't trade in their gas guzzlers the moment the price of gas rises

Right, they say demand is "sticky" short-term. But longer term you adjust where the kids take their opera lessons, maybe move closer to work (or get a closer job), decided it isn't worth the commute.

Most of the savings anyway is between say, 10 and 20 MPG and even my 1999 7.3 Diesel smoker gets 18. Trading from a typical used 30 to a new 40 mpg is the same 10 mpg but only a 33% improvement rather than 100%.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 24 Dec 2021, 15:20:39

Pops wrote:You're right, sorry, I should have said passenger vehicles only account for 25% of total oil demand globally.

As a percentage of fuels they are as you say 40%, but there are lots of other uses.

I didn't really make the point very well anyway.
I was trying to say that higher fuel price does cause a small drop in passenger car miles, but you can't escape by simply driving less. Everything comes on ships trains and trucks from somewhere else and they all use oil.

I think you are spot on with that. I think oil prices are the main driver of the present inflation coupled with the tons of easy money the government has put out there. The oil component comes from the fact that oil is used at every point in the creation of a product from the mining of the raw materials (often oil itself as in plastics) to the heating of the factory then on to transport to the oil heated warehouse then on to the retail store or the UPS truck delivering to your door.
Even our food will be effected from fertilizer costs to tractor and farm truck fuel then on into the distribution system.
Having lived and worked during the Carter years I see no reason not to expect 2022's final inflation number to be any less then 15 percent.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Doly » Sun 26 Dec 2021, 16:42:06

I was trying to say that higher fuel price does cause a small drop in passenger car miles, but you can't escape by simply driving less. Everything comes on ships trains and trucks from somewhere else and they all use oil.


Well, as your own graph indicates, passenger cars are in actual fact the bigger chunk of the pie. And if people both drive less and fly less, which is the sort of thing that has been happening in the pandemic, it would definitely make a noticeable difference. Besides, it's also the place where there is more potential room for change.
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