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SHIFT Project

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

SHIFT Project

Unread postby Pops » Mon 22 Nov 2021, 10:41:25

The EU can expect to suffer oil depletion by 2030 – our new study on “peak oil” finds
Abstract
The likely decline, by 2030, in the production capacity of those countries that currently supply more than half of the oil consumed by the European Union (EU) could lead to severe constraints on EU supplies.
From 2019 to 2030, the total volume produced by the EU’s current oil providers is likely to shrink by up to nearly 8%, according to an analysis featuring a level of detail unavailable sofar in any public study; the report is mostly based on estimates of future global crude oil production capacity provided by a Norwegian market intelligence agency, Rystad Energy. The highest potential rates of this decline would exceed the decline rate of oil consumption in the European Union since 2010 (notwithstanding, the EU currently imports more crude oil than China or the United States).
The combined production of Russia and all former USSR countries, which together account for more than 40% of the EU's oil supply, seems to have entered a systematic decline in 2019. Africa's oil production (more than 10% of EU supplies) appears set to decline at least until 2030.
The production growth expected by Rystad is highly dependent on the development of new oil prospects whose technical and economic potential remains to be assessed, or on hypothetical future discoveries. As a result, a significant share of the expected growth trends is more uncertain than the expected decline, which is induced by the well-known and precisely measured evolution of existing “mature” production.


This is ASPO France and the usual suspects from Total Oil as well as some IEA oughts folk.

Nothing really new and Eurocentric as well as pretty long but if you need a PO fix this will suffice
.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: SHIFT Project

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 22 Nov 2021, 16:39:17

Pops wrote:This is ASPO France and the usual suspects from Total Oil as well as some IEA oughts folk.

Nothing really new and Eurocentric as well as pretty long but if you need a PO fix this will suffice
.


Usual suspects indeed. Any ASPO and Lahherrere involved was enough of a heads up for any thinking peak oiler.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: SHIFT Project

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 23 Nov 2021, 05:16:55

It's nice to know things are on track, makes me feel secure in my investments. The lockdowns from the magic virus, and now the flow on supply chain issues could really put a dent in demand though, how convenient... I see the lockdowns are ramping up all over Europe again too.

This is all good for demand destruction. As the World Economic Forum alludes to:

"Our research began in 2020 before the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, led to a global pandemic in the first quarter of that year. The COVID-19 crisis represents a threat to both lives and livelihoods, but it also serves as a market-shaping force."
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/11/ ... alue-2030/

The markets certainly need to be reshaped, I agree with Klaus Schwab on that one.
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