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Peak Boomers

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 15:44:09

mousepad wrote:
JuanP wrote:most people of my generation are worse than most people of earlier generations. I also think that Millennials are even worse


https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/63219- ... s-contempt
The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.”

― Socrates


Ain't that funny?


yes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. I remember reading Plato quoting Socrates as a teenager and feeling depressed that things were still the same.
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 19:01:57

JuanP wrote: I remember reading Plato quoting Socrates as a teenager and feeling depressed that things were still the same.


Me too.

They even had two main political parties in Athens.....there was a "conservative" political party dominated by the Athenian upper classes and a political party that said they were for the lower classes but actually was dominated by demagogues who were mainly interested in personal political power.

And they had witch-hunts and political trials just like we do now. In fact, Socrates was sentenced to death in a show trial staged by the Athenian political party of the lower classes after they took over Athens, because the fools didn't understand Socrates and his philosophy and they believed Socrates was affiliated with the upper classes.

Image

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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 19:25:35

JuanP wrote:
As a member of the Gen X generation, I have been convinced for at least 4 decades that most people of my generation are worse than most people of earlier generations. I gave up on the idea of the Gen X generation fixing anything or making anything better as a teenager. I also think that Millennials are even worse, on average, than people my age.


As a Gen-X I agree, and it wasn't until I read the work of Howe, Generational Turnings, that I understood 'Why'. Gen-X is the nomad generation, we don't engage in politics like the boomers, we like to do it all ourselves if possible, we're happiest offgrid, loners for the most part. People with these attributes don't build society as a whole or add much to it. Their description fits me to a T, and my sister, a boomer two years older is exactly the opposite, a real social animal, politically alert, always building on the network of friends.

You can't get a round peg in a square hole and you can't expect people in a certain generation to behave differently that they do. Psychology for the most part is oblivious to this.

Here is a downloadable link, an interview with Howe from 2020.
The webpage: https://www.peakprosperity.com/neil-how ... h-turning/
https://cm-us-standard.s3.amazonaws.com ... 20-5-5.mp3
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 21:10:01

theluckycountry wrote:
JuanP wrote:
As a member of the Gen X generation, I have been convinced for at least 4 decades that most people of my generation are worse than most people of earlier generations. I gave up on the idea of the Gen X generation fixing anything or making anything better as a teenager. I also think that Millennials are even worse, on average, than people my age.


As a Gen-X I agree, and it wasn't until I read the work of Howe, Generational Turnings, that I understood 'Why'. Gen-X is the nomad generation, we don't engage in politics like the boomers, we like to do it all ourselves if possible, we're happiest off grid, loners for the most part. People with these attributes don't build society as a whole or add much to it. Their description fits me to a T, and my sister, a boomer two years older is exactly the opposite, a real social animal, politically alert, always building on the network of friends.

You can't get a round peg in a square hole and you can't expect people in a certain generation to behave differently that they do. Psychology for the most part is oblivious to this.

Here is a downloadable link, an interview with Howe from 2020.
The webpage: https://www.peakprosperity.com/neil-how ... h-turning/
https://cm-us-standard.s3.amazonaws.com ... 20-5-5.mp3


That description fits me, too. Thanks for the links!
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 23:54:21

An excert from the pdf: survival TheFourthTurningJMD
Which should be up online. Howe has a lot of papers out and has done innumerable podcasts.

Finally there is what we call a Nomad archetype. Nomads are typically raised as children during Awakenings, the great cultural upheavals of our history. Whereas the Prophet arche-type is indulgently raised as children, the Nomad archetype is underprotected and completely exposed as children. They learn early that they can’t trust basic institutions to look out for their best interests and come of age as free agents whose watchword is individualism.

They are the great realists and pragmatists in our nation’s history. The most recent example of the Nomad archetype is Generation X. This generation grew up during the social turmoil of the 1960s and ‘70s and are now beginning to enter midlife. They are the ones that know how to get things done on the ground. They are the stay-at-home dads and security moms trying to give their kids more of a childhood than they them-selves had. Their burden is that they tend not to trust large institutions and do not have a strong connection to public life.

They forge their identity and value system by “going it alone” and staying off the radar screen of government. It could be very interesting to see the rest of the life story of this generation, particularly as they take over leadership positions.
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby careinke » Fri 19 Nov 2021, 05:04:00

DiggitySmiggity wrote:
Uh, no. Baby boomers did not begin retiring, as shown by the green line from chart #1 of Mish's article, which continually rises from 2005 until the year 2020.


Image


If I were grading Mish's graph I would give him a D. I'm not sure why he made those divisions. For example:

1. A 55+ category is crazy, it should be 55-64, with another line 65 +. The "normal" retirement age. If the purpose was to catch all the boomers with one line, then it should start at 57, the youngest boomer.

2. Why not just one line for 15-24 year old's? Maybe because it would be higher than the boomer line.

Another thing to consider, is today both spouses usually work, and single parent homes have risen dramatically, so of course more working boomers will show up.

"there are three types of lies; Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics."


I'm a Boomer, but I retired at 49!

PEACE
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 20 Nov 2021, 12:12:08

You know what's really going on. All of those people are now concentrated in nursing homes. They sit there in front of some of the largest televisions on the planet, all day long. Almost to a person, they watch Fox News. They are all so lonely.

Nursing homes are boredom factories. As far as I've observed, I used to work at a job where I went into them often, the people there spend all of their time watching one of several things, actually. They love monster truck racing and all-star wrestling too.

Anything with action going on, and flashy stuff. Anything that describes meaning in a quick way, for a person who doesn't necessary have all that much time left to ponder life's harder questions. Those people wouldn't be there, if they could take the Indian's way out, and disappear into the woods, where they would be found against a tree, in a few years.

You know they all vote, right? Some of them used to be liberals.

Yeah, talk about battery packs. This is a real battery pack. It is made up of so much political capital, in fact, that is has power to waste. In some jurisdictions, a person probably can't be elected dog catcher, or to the school board, if they don't tow the line.
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 20 Nov 2021, 15:13:23

careinke wrote:
DiggitySmiggity wrote:
Uh, no. Baby boomers did not begin retiring, as shown by the green line from chart #1 of Mish's article, which continually rises from 2005 until the year 2020.


Image


If I were grading Mish's graph I would give him a D. I'm not sure why he made those divisions. For example:

1. A 55+ category is crazy, it should be 55-64, with another line 65 +. The "normal" retirement age. If the purpose was to catch all the boomers with one line, then it should start at 57, the youngest boomer.

2. Why not just one line for 15-24 year old's? Maybe because it would be higher than the boomer line.

Another thing to consider, is today both spouses usually work, and single parent homes have risen dramatically, so of course more working boomers will show up.

"there are three types of lies; Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics."


I'm a Boomer, but I retired at 49!

PEACE

I'm a boomer, and retired at 48, primarily through frugality and having no kids, and needing to do things like take care of my parents and my girlfriend and her ailing parents.

(Re the no kids decision, it's not hard to do the math on what the human population spiral leads to over time. Too bad more people won't think more about that before having kids early and often. Maybe things like AGW will change that, over time.)

BTW, how about a link for the "Mish Article", Diggity? I tried a quick search and got a bunch of hits, and don't feel like digging through a bunch of stuff from "Mish" if he publishes such charts with a straight face. But I'd like to know how that data is sourced, because quite frankly, I think that green line looks like complete nonsense until I see CREDIBLE data to support it.

My circle of friends do a LOT of retiring from age 55 to 65, and NONE of them decide to enter the labor force after retiring. (That was one of my key retirement criteria -- I did NOT want to EVER HAVE to go work at freaking Arby's because I couldn't pay my bills. Better to just endure my current hellish, stressful job for another year or three, but at least be paid fairly well for my time.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 20 Nov 2021, 15:25:21

careinke wrote:Another thing to consider, is today both spouses usually work, and single parent homes have risen dramatically, so of course more working boomers will show up.

That was my first thought, upon seeing that green line.

BUT, why wouldn't that trend also show up quite a bit for people in their 30's and 40's as well? After all, that trend has been going on for several decades, and it certainly wasn't all at once.

I find the slope of the green line vs. all the other lines ENTIRELY unconvincing, barring some sort of credible, meaningful data to back it up.

And glancing at the "usual arm waving doomer" nature of Mish's "economics" site, let's just say, I don't expect to find much of that.

You were absolutely correct re your "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" comment, as a principle when data is presented like that, UNTIL credibly proven otherwise.

For example, doing a quick search on US working population demographics, the first appropriate (re subject and detail) hit I get is from the BLS. A credible source.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2002/05/art2full.pdf

See table 3 on page 5. Under the "change in thousands", the last section, it shows the age 45-54 working populations having a net increase from 2000 to 2020. Just the opposite of what the bogus looking chart above from "Mish" shows.

Also, with an aging population, some of that uward skew for older people is built in (again, playing games with statistics, if they're not ADJUSTED for such things -- if we're trying to learn something valid vs. make bogus points, of course).

See the continuation of table 3 on page 6, where the overall population by decade percentage growth statics CLEARLY show how much more growth was going on overall in the older population (baby boomers), and was actually shrinking in the 35 to 44 year olds, for example.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 21 Nov 2021, 03:34:45

Those people in nursing homes are just going what they did with their leisure time when working, spending it in front of the idiot box. When first retired they generally spend a lot of time around the garden, mowing and pulling weeds, the rest of the time is the idiot box. When they're so old they can't even push a lawnmower they get herded into these corpse factories and spend all their time with their beloved idiot box. I have seen this time and again in my career, and seen the odd one who actually had an authentic hobby or two, which they upped in retirement and even managed to continue in these homes. Amateur radio works, on a limited scale, but nothing requiring tools. Nursing homes are disgusting but necessary places in our society that abandons it's elderly.
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