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Peak Oil 2020/2021

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 10 Nov 2021, 15:06:28

"Oil Demand Is Back at 2019 Levels and Set to Rise, Vitol CEO Says"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=fyhEsXfZ

"The head of Vitol Group, the world’s biggest independent oil trader, said global demand has recovered to 2019 pre-pandemic levels and is poised to go even higher early next year.

Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy said demand for oil will exceed 2019 levels during the first quarter of 2022. He spoke online at the Reuters Commodities Trading Conference on Tuesday."

We need a new virus pronto!
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 10 Nov 2021, 15:11:51

I believe we will have peak 'affordable oil' in 2022 curtsy of the Biden administration. :x
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 10 Nov 2021, 16:19:39

vtsnowedin wrote:I believe we will have peak 'affordable oil' in 2022 curtsy of the Biden administration. :x


Ah...affordable is relative. Just go back and look at the McPeaksters soiling themselves over $40/bbl oil 15 years ago over the 2nd claimed big bad peak oil of the century (the 2005 one). Nowadays? $100/bbl? Been there..done that. OPEC back in charge of prices because US E&Ps are focusing on building forts out of their balance sheets? $150 could be completely reasonable. Oil climbs to $150/bbl like it did in 2008? That spike caused transport like the Volt and Leaf to get invented, Elon got a woody over it, and here we are. After all the claimed peak oils of this century, what is happening with the discerning consumer of modern transport? They don't give a crap about what the fuel price at the local jihadi support station is, if others want to drive horse and buggy equivalents and pay the ever higher accompanying costs while complaining about taking it up the tailpipe, it's a free country.

Now, you start raising my rate for a kWh, and NOW you've got a fight on your hands!! :-D
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Sat 13 Nov 2021, 09:25:03

“…the IEA estimates that the oil industry needs to invest $365 billion per year. Last year, global capex fell to $350 billion and has not rebounded in 2021, and probably won’t in 2022 either. If capex stays stable at current levels, global oil supply will likely roll over around 2024 and then decline sharply thereafter.”
Morgan Stanley research note, quoted in Oil & Gas Journal

h/t Energy Bulletin
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 13 Nov 2021, 09:38:24

AdamB wrote:
Now, you start raising my rate for a kWh, and NOW you've got a fight on your hands!! :-D

Electricity prices are up 6% and climbing under the Biden administration.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 13 Nov 2021, 13:05:51

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Now, you start raising my rate for a kWh, and NOW you've got a fight on your hands!! :-D

Electricity prices are up 6% and climbing under the Biden administration.


Mine aren't. Yet.

The parents and their new "we can save you money if you let us find you spot market pricing for your home" electricity provider has clobbered them twice now, each time related to spikes in NG prices, first back in February when Texas froze, and here again recently. I was surprised how much their electricity spiked because of a surge in NG prices.

It'll be interesting to see how much the US being a major exporter of NG will begin to intertwine our domestic markets with the international one, with resulting price changes to either, or both.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 13 Nov 2021, 17:44:53

I saw that 6%+ figure on a news show today so we can assume it is a nationwide average. Compared to the gasoline heating oil, used cars, and food prices they listed electricity is a laggard but give it a couple of years as I have seldom seen an electricity rate go down once an increase has been approved.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 16 Nov 2021, 20:29:47

Chinese newspaper reports that Joe Biden begged Chairman XI to release oil from the Chinese strategic oil reserve during their phone call summit

biden-reportedly-begged-china-release-oil-reserves-during-xi-call

First Biden was begging the Saudis to pump more oil and now he's begging the Chinese to release oil from their strategic reserve.

Biden sure seems to spend a lot of his time begging for more oil, considering he is supposedly against oil.

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Please Chairman Xi, please release some oil for me. I'll do anything you ask if you'll only release some oil.....

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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 16:27:40

Here in Oz we pay an average rate of 22-cents a kWh, and cheaper overnight from state controlled power entities, healthcare is mostly state run too. It never goes up randomly like in the US, the US consumers get totally ripped blind on healthcare, energy, and education. Some things are better left for the government to run.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Revi » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 21:30:43

Peak oil is here. Price for heating the average house in Maine is going up by about $250 per month, and they just announced that electricity is going up by 80%. It's going to be a long, cold winter for most people around here.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 00:26:24

Revi wrote:Peak oil is here.


Again. We know Revi. It isn't near as terrifying as the 2005-2006-2008 triplet, but I can understand that the weak kneed McPeaksters swoon for anything peak looking. It was all the rage around even this website 15 years ago.

Revi wrote:Price for heating the average house in Maine is going up by about $250 per month, and they just announced that electricity is going up by 80%. It's going to be a long, cold winter for most people around here.


The goobermint just signed various bills and programs to make everyone's life easier! Rejoice!! And what did all these same folks do when the same problem cropped up all the other times this century? You aren't seriously still using heating oil to run a furnace in rural Maine are you? I mean, this isn't the early 20th century any more Revi, surely you've got...WOOD...or something?
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 05:29:41

Yes the wood pile under my deck has gone up in value as that is my only heat source but it takes no more labor to split and stack a cord of $300 wood then it did when it was worth $200. Diesel for the tractor and gas for the chainsaw and wood splitter are both up over 50 percent but at less then two gallons per cord a minor issue.
On the other hand a friend that lives in a mobile home got his Kerosene tank filled for a whopping $800 where $500 would have filled it last winter.
The girls went shopping yesterday and prices are much higher then the government is admitting to. Pork loin that was $1.50 per pound is now $3.00. Chicken breasts are $2.00/lb ,hamburger and chuck roast $4.00/lb. all 30% higher or more then last year.
and all the other things from potatoes to laundry soap and cat food are up a good bit as well. I was considering buying a choice grade prime rib roast for a big Holiday meal but at $19.00/lb will feed them tacos instead. :)
But it does us effect us a lot less then a family with two commuting workers and oil or propane central heating and a couple of teenagers with their heads always in the fridge door.
The Mises complained that it cost her $45 to fill up her Subaru but she has had it five months and still doesn't have enough miles on it for it's first 5000 mile synthetic oil change. Something tells me that will cost more then $19.95 when I go to get it.
Being a not working retiree I have not put more then 40 miles on my truck this week and can choose how much and when to drive which is something I was not able to do all the years I commuted to the next state for work. Going from 45K miles a year to about 5K sure saves a lot of money.
And then there is this. Even if inflation eases off back down to +2% a year that does not mean any of these high prices will drop back. They will just stay where they then are and only increase at the slower 2% rate from that level. We will never see $2.00/lb. hamburger again so we might as well get used to $4.00 and up.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 15:52:24

Plantagenet wrote:Chinese newspaper reports that Joe Biden begged Chairman XI to release oil from the Chinese strategic oil reserve during their phone call summit

First Biden was begging the Saudis to pump more oil and now he's begging the Chinese to release oil from their strategic reserve.

Biden sure seems to spend a lot of his time begging for more oil, considering he is supposedly against oil.

Please Chairman Xi, please release some oil for me. I'll do anything you ask if you'll only release some oil.....

Cheers!


And it worked! the Chinese announced yesterday that they will be releasing oil from their strategic reserves to help balance supply and demand, and oil prices went down a few glorious pennies after the Chinese announcements.
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"We have met the enemy and he is us." Pogo
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby gollum » Fri 19 Nov 2021, 13:35:32

Nothing like draining your savings to make your monthly credit card bill.
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