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Have we hit the peak?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 21:37:36

The price of oil is up by almost 70%. Electricity is up by 80%. If this isn't peak oil, what is it?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 22:35:28

Revi wrote:The price of oil is up by almost 70%. Electricity is up by 80%. If this isn't peak oil, what is it?



We’ve hit peak everything, literally.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 00:20:43

Revi wrote:The price of oil is up by almost 70%. Electricity is up by 80%. If this isn't peak oil, what is it?


This is peak oil world Revi. You are no more a spring chicken than I am, did you miss the last real energy crisis of the 1970's? The price of oil isn't anywhere near it's all time high, it isn't even going to average across an entire year as high as it was during the 2011-2014 timeframe, and you might be taking it up the backside in electricity costs in "ain't got nuttin but syrup and lumber" land, but we don't all live in nowhere-ville Maine. Try a dog sled? With an EV you shouldn't care the least about fuel costs anyway, so what's the deal? Let the ill-informed in their obsolete transport suffer the economic consequences of their poor choices, it doesn't bother EVers like you and me in the least!
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 09:43:31

Revi wrote:The price of oil is up by almost 70%. Electricity is up by 80%. If this isn't peak oil, what is it?

• Oil prices slipped to their lowest level in almost six weeks amid indications that more supply is on the way.
• Inventories at the main delivery hub for US oil futures saw their first weekly increase after five straight declines.
• The IEA forecast earlier that it sees US producers ramp up their oil production.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ng-2021-11


This isn't peak oil, this is still COVID messing with the supply chain—and the US exporting oil as fast as possible. 5 years ago I was ranting that allowing exports of oil and gas would screw US consumers in the end and I was right... we've been printing money to give drillers so they can export our last great endowment—at a loss. Brilliant.

Don't expect any more stability in oil price than there ever was, no matter what happens. There are trillions of dollars of loose money out there looking for a return and you can bet they will be piling on any rise or fall in oil in storage.

Here is the good news, $80 feels a little high but Rystad says $80 will get you 1,400 Billion barrels—actually that the average cost of 100mmb/d is about $45. That's down from $100/bbl for the same amount in 2014. Also, potential production is about 115mmb/d through 2030 at least. Unless you're just wanting to be skeered, read that link.

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Hopefully that gives us some time to transition. If so we can lower demand before decline kicks in. It feels like there is too much emphasis on defunding the oil companies and not enough on building out RE, charging networks, conservation etc. Here is what Rystad said
“As the theoretical supply in 2030 exceeds the demand trajectory by more than 10 million bpd, climate policies should be more demand-focused rather than supply-focused. Supply cuts enacted within one country will largely be countered by supply increases from other countries, while demand cuts are not met with new sources of demand,” says Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at Rystad Energy.

IOW, forcing institutions to defund fossils only gives less scrupulous investors less competition. Better to reduce demand.

Doesn't help that half our representatives are bought and paid by the carbon industry. To be fair, neither does it help that the other half's biggest program in its "social" infrastructure bill's is a SALT tax break for the rich rather than, say, demand focused conservation rebates, EV rebates or whatever. Hard to claim the high ground when you're slopping the pigs.

Lest anyone think I've gone all corny, I almost bought a little place in Iowa last week. Just big enough for small tight house and growing a little corn and a cow. We're visiting ND next week and will look around N MO and Iowa on the way... unless it blizzards...

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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby rangerone314 » Tue 23 Nov 2021, 09:58:26

Good at chopping wood?
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 25 Nov 2021, 11:30:32

rangerone314 wrote:Good at chopping wood?

Actually, having a little woodlot in a woods area is a main goal this time out.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 25 Nov 2021, 11:52:34

How much longer can you peak oil denier shills keep up your charade?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 25 Nov 2021, 13:48:04

Armageddon wrote:How much longer can you peak oil denier shills keep up your charade?


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StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 25 Nov 2021, 20:17:47

Time to bring on another Covid variant to slow the economy to hide the energy cliff.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 26 Nov 2021, 11:01:55

Right on cue
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 26 Nov 2021, 20:58:06

Pops wrote:
rangerone314 wrote:Good at chopping wood?

Actually, having a little woodlot in a woods area is a main goal this time out.


I hope you find a great place with a woodlot, pops.

I've got four acres of birch and alder around my cabin here, and every fall I chainsaw down some trees and then I cut 1-2 cords of firewood from trees I cut down the year before.

I enjoy it. I cut a few selected trees when they get big enough to block my view of Denali and the Alaska Range, and then I let them dry for a year or two before chainsawing the the dry wood into smaller pieces that I can cram into my wood stove in the winter.

Its a good healthy thing to do......and when it gets down to -30--as is predicted here for Sunday---- If I didn't have that wood to burn I'd pretty much freeze to death. I feel good when I cut it, good when I haul it, good when I stack it, and good when I burn it. And I feel great when I look out from my warm cabin in winter and see the mountains. Its a win-win-win-win deal.

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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby randomguyonabike » Sat 27 Nov 2021, 20:36:43

the system is on the verge of collapsing right now

mass volatility starting up again

the federal govt is now borrowing to pay the debt and the interest

we are in the end game now

oil production is falling hence.....COVID-19 scamdemic

the shales are going belly up

it is going to be all over soon
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 27 Nov 2021, 23:21:18

Plantagenet wrote:I've got four acres of birch and alder around my cabin here, and every fall I chainsaw down some trees and then I cut 1-2 cords of firewood from trees I cut down the year before.


And is the electrical service at the cabin sufficient to charge your EV? :)
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 27 Nov 2021, 23:23:22

randomguyonabike wrote:it is going to be all over soon


Well, we are some 13 years past the last "going to be over soon", do you figure this one will be any sooner than the one claimed in 2008?
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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