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Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 11 Nov 2021, 23:57:34

Revi wrote:
Newfie wrote:Stay tuned for next weeks exciting episode.


I think it will result in falling off the cliff.


Jan Lundberg thought the same thing for the 2nd peak oil of this century, wrote a classic peak oil scenario based on it.

Sadly, if it hasn't happened during the first 6 peak oils of this century, you are a bit short on proof that it will 3 years AFTER the 6th one, or any other that may pop up during at LEAST the remainder of the first half of it.

Someday Revi you might learn that just because you have hopes and dreams, doesn't mean it will occur because of either. Hard nosed, critical thinking, the application of logic and experience, that is how we will calculate when peak oil will arrive.

Revi wrote: Right now the price of off road diesel is $3.80. Lots of people in my neighborhood heat their houses with it. It's going to cost them like $16 a day to do that in the cold months. That's $112 a week. They don't have that much on top of groceries and rent. It's going to be a long, cold winter and some will have their pipes freeze which will add to their woes. It's a collapse already here in Maine.


Well, maybe AFTER they stop paying their heating bills and freeze to death, but that ain't happened yet, so it sure can't be claimed as collapse. And you should know better, expensive fuels aren't any more correlated with peak oil than the highest crude price in human history in 2008 correlates with that peak oil (4th claimed of this century).
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby rdberg1957 » Fri 12 Nov 2021, 12:23:53

When the topic is collapse, it is very important to define what we are speaking about. Individual civilizations have risen and fallen in somewhat predictable ways throughout history. Anthropologists (Turin) have used predator-prey animal models, extrapolating them to human populations. Some of the factors cited by historians and others as leading to the fall of nations include resource depletion, gross wealth inequality, poverty, famines, pestilence, pandemics, loss of social cohesion, loss of problem-solving ability (political decay), violence.

Many of these factors appear to be present in the United States currently, for example. It is difficult to assess how far along the path the society is when we are in the middle of it. And it is very difficult to extrapolate what is happening in one society with the rest of the world. One society may react to resource depletion creatively, while another will retreat into rigid ideologies unable to cope with problems. The United States still has many creative people, but a sizeable minority of the population has reacted to the pandemic by latching on to conspiracy theories, turning against those who are creative, and rendering available solutions much less effective.

The American economy is actually not doing badly compared with some other countries, but income inequality has kept many people on the edge of poverty, so that a job loss, mild inflation, and solvable problems push people into poverty and desperation with less provocation than in the past. My thesis is that societal collapse will occur as it has throughout history, that it will be more widespread and contagious. Social problems which precede actual resource depletion will be the proximate causes of collapse. It will not take much resource depletion to push societies into violence when social inequality is so pronounced.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 12 Nov 2021, 12:33:32

Rdberg wrote:

My thesis is that societal collapse will occur as it has throughout history, that it will be more widespread and contagious. Social problems which precede actual resource depletion will be the proximate causes of collapse. It will not take much resource depletion to push societies into violence when social inequality is so pronounced.



That is an interesting and believable thesis. All these bits interplay on one another. The specifics, exactly who become the scapegoats, are difficult to suss out.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby mousepad » Fri 12 Nov 2021, 13:32:41

rdberg1957 wrote:When the topic is collapse, it is very important to define what we are speaking about.


And yet we've been going on this forum for more than 10 years and squabbling about collapse without defining it.

For some there is no collapse. There's only opportunity and change. For other, any change is collapse.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Pops » Fri 12 Nov 2021, 20:41:06

rdberg1957 wrote:Many of these factors appear to be present in the United States currently,

Nice post. My idea of collapse is a permanent failure of one or more systems that provide essential services that enable society. Whether the system is fishery or forrest or farmland.

It feels like we're nearing a social tipping point in the US. Citizens are arming up, some with the encouragement of politicians who actively undermine the very institution they are sworn to protect. Others in fear of the first. Many taboos have been breached, norms broken, inconvenient facts and public good flouted at the urging of TV stars, and TV stars cum politicians. Rule of law is undermined by the highest officials because their constituents and internet heroes demand it.

But alas those are temporary problems, passing political problems. The world wars destroyed nations but they sprang back to life because essential natural services remained. The US civil war tore us up but we recovered because of abundant resources to exploit and capitalist industry to profit. We survived overshoot, temporarily, because we discovered artificial fertilizer and cheap pumped water and mechanical traction — because of cheap concentrated energy resources.

Now the most nominally valuable innovations are programs that distract while mining our habits for marketing targets. The systems that support us are no longer the center of our daily lives they once were. In fact we are far removed from any but our own tiny slice of specialization, a dozen rungs above that basic level that sustains us. We have no clue how to survive outside our built environment—and it is itself unknowably complex. We're postindustrial in our multitudes and luxuries but our subsistence is still based on the same natural systems as our distant ancestors—plus a heavy dose of fossil energy.

I personally have always felt pretty optimistic, simply because I'm fairly handy. As more and more folks are divorced from nature, physical work and basic subsistence skills I'm not as optimistic. Unlike the failure of past nations or tribes whose society collapsed, this time collapse will be global, there won't be another virgin territory a hundred miles away to move to when our fields fail to yield or our king is beheaded.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 13 Nov 2021, 16:13:38

rdberg1957 wrote: My thesis is that societal collapse will occur as it has throughout history, that it will be more widespread and contagious. Social problems which precede actual resource depletion will be the proximate causes of collapse. It will not take much resource depletion to push societies into violence when social inequality is so pronounced.


Thats certainly a reasonable thesis. Even if it doesn't lead to collapse the growth in social inequality due to the loss of good jobs and the impoverishment of many people in the USA is a huge problem if we want to maintain a civil, cohesive and legally egalitarian society.

Its one of the reasons its so stupid for Biden to essentially open the southern border and allow millions more poor and uneducated people to steam into the US. And now Biden is going to incentivize more illegal immigration by paying some illegal alien families ca. 1 million dollars. Its almost as though Biden wants MORE people living in poverty and MORE social inequality and MORE of the problems that this creates in the USA.

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