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Miocene Anthropocene Future

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 27 Jan 2021, 21:36:21

Peak_Yeast wrote:Concerning the end of this interglacial:

Without having sufficient time to investigate the claims - this video claims that we are not going to see any interglacial soon - simply because of the combination of milankovich and other cycles that appears to have caused the many previous glacial/interglacial periods.

(Is an Ice Age Coming? | Space Time | PBS Digital Studios)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztninkgZ0ws

Seems convincing to me.. What do you people say?


This is pretty much settled science. We have known since at least the mid 1980's that the climate had dipped into a "little ice age" which we came out of between 1750-1850. We even have tidal records from ports like London and Marseilles that show from around 1350-1800 sea levels were falling on around a 1 mm per year rate as mountain glaciers world wide were growing strongly. Then around 1850 the freeze down reversed and sea level stopped going down. Now sea level is rising at about three times the rate it was falling during the Little Ice Age but it will still take us a few decades to get back where sea level was in 1300, a fact most people are completely oblivious to.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Jan 2021, 19:09:52

Subjectivist wrote:
Peak_Yeast wrote:Concerning the end of this interglacial:

Without having sufficient time to investigate the claims - this video claims that we are not going to see any interglacial soon - simply because of the combination of milankovich and other cycles that appears to have caused the many previous glacial/interglacial periods.

(Is an Ice Age Coming? | Space Time | PBS Digital Studios)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztninkgZ0ws

Seems convincing to me.. What do you people say?


This is pretty much settled science. We have known since at least the mid 1980's that the climate had dipped into a "little ice age" which we came out of between 1750-1850. We even have tidal records from ports like London and Marseilles that show from around 1350-1800 sea levels were falling on around a 1 mm per year rate as mountain glaciers world wide were growing strongly. Then around 1850 the freeze down reversed and sea level stopped going down. Now sea level is rising at about three times the rate it was falling during the Little Ice Age but it will still take us a few decades to get back where sea level was in 1300, a fact most people are completely oblivious to.


At least a decade if not 15 years ago Dr. David Archer of Chicago University put models up online where you can play with the variables about all aspects of the Milankovitch cycles interacting with human induced CO2 levels. Even in the worst case in terms of initiation of a glaciation cycle current CO2 levels are so high they prevent an ice sheet from forming above 65 degrees north, which is the trigger event. With no trigger there is no major glaciation for the next 100,000 years.

Archer Online Models

Archers Page at U Chicago with many embedded links
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dissident » Fri 29 Jan 2021, 17:57:14

Thank you for the links.

As for the "Little Ice Age". It was not a global climate anomaly. It was essentially confined to the northern hemisphere and with a high localization in Europe. It appears to have been an aerosol induced regional climate effect with some dynamics induced non-locality. The earlier stages are likely heavily influenced by a series of large volcanic eruptions that released a lot of sulfate. But throughout this cooling period there was substantial deforestation even if the Black Death removed a large percentage of the European population. Deforestation works in two ways:

1) Aerosol driven effects: Black carbon released by wood combustion and associated cloud albedo effects.

2) Increased albedo from cleared land. This is not trivial since Europe was essentially cleared of forests and covered with grasslands.

The sulfate pollution cooling following the 1950-60 emission peak during the 1970s was not as pronounced since CO2 levels were higher and there was a regulatory response to reduce sulfate pollution.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 22 Oct 2021, 14:57:00

A few interesting facts about CO2 emissions by humanity.

1950 6 Billion tons emitted.
1967 12 Billion Tons doubling in 17 years.
1996 24 Billion tons doubling in 29 years.
2018 36 Billion tons a 50% increase in 22 years.

Over the long run since 1950 the rate of increase has been constantly slowing down. During that same time period the number of humans on the planet has gone from 2.5 Billion to 7.5 Billion, triple the 1950 number. Even more interesting the world wide standard of living where people live in at least a 1950 level of luxury has also vastly increased with 6.8 Billion people now connected to electrical supplies around the world.

Following these trends to their peak without concern for climate change would lead us to expect a peak emission rate of 60 Billion tons some time around 2050. This is based on world trends continuing on uninterrupted and a population somewhere around 10 Billion all with a 1950 or better level of luxury.

Unfortunately current emissions are already increasing the level of CO2 by a rate of about 2.5 ppm/year. In 2021 we peaked at over 419 ppmv/CO2 and a number of scientists have been reporting for well over a decade now that if/when we hit the 450 ppmv level of CO2 the process becomes irreversible. So our entire margin of remaining emissions is less than 31 ppmv and we are emitting 2.5 ppmv/year even if we hold levels where they were for 2021 which is highly unlikely. 31/2.5 = 12.4 years. IOW unless we start very steeply cutting emissions today we will pass the point of no return in early 2032. If we were to overnight switch all our fossil fuel consumption to Natural Gas then we could put off that date of no further emissions possible to perhaps 2045.

Does anyone actually believe we will genuinely have a world wide CO2 emission reduction next year and every year after that until we reach zero net emissions?
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 22 Oct 2021, 15:11:23

Average Carbon Dioxide Levels Increasing Faster Than Ever, NOAA Says

The average rate of carbon dioxide increase is faster than ever and in-air levels are 50 percent higher from when the industrial age commenced, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Monday.

The NOAA reported the average carbon dioxide level in May clocked in at 419.13 parts per million. NOAA climate scientist Pieter Tans said this was a 1.82 parts per million increase from May 2020 and 50 percent higher than the 280 parts per million level from before the industrial age.

Carbon dioxide levels are at their highest during the month of May when Northern Hemisphere greenery hasn't yet bloomed and absorbed some of the gas, the Associated Press reported. However, the volume of carbon dioxide consumed by plants is always eclipsed by increasing carbon dioxide emissions year after year from burning fossil fuels, transportation and electricity.

Natalie Mahowald, a Cornell University climate scientist, said the 50 percent increase of in-air carbon levels is "setting a new benchmark and not in a good way."

"If we want to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, we need to work much harder to cut carbon dioxide emissions and right away," she said.

Climate change does more than increase temperatures. It makes extreme weather—storms, wildfires, floods and droughts—worse and more frequent and causes oceans to rise and get more acidic, studies show. There are also health effects, including heat deaths and increased pollen. In 2015, countries signed the Paris agreement to try to keep climate change to below what's considered dangerous levels.

The one-year jump in carbon dioxide was not a record, mainly because of a La Nina weather pattern, when parts of the Pacific temporarily cool, said Scripps Institution of Oceanography geochemist Ralph Keeling. Keeling's father started the monitoring of carbon dioxide on top of the Hawaiian mountain Mauna Loa in 1958, and he has continued the work of charting the now famous Keeling Curve.

Scripps, which calculates the numbers slightly differently based on time and averaging, said the peak in May was 418.9.

Also, pandemic lockdowns slowed transportation, travel and other activity by about 7 percent, earlier studies show. But that was too small to make a significant difference. Carbon dioxide can stay in the air for 1,000 years or more, so year-to-year changes in emissions don't register much.

The 10-year average rate of increase also set a record, now up to 2.4 parts per million per year.

"Carbon dioxide going up in a few decades like that is extremely unusual," Tans said. "For example, when the Earth climbed out of the last ice age, carbon dioxide increased by about 80 parts per million and it took the Earth system, the natural system, 6,000 years. We have a much larger increase in the last few decades."

By comparison, it has taken only 42 years, from 1979 to 2021, to increase carbon dioxide by that same amount.

"The world is approaching the point where exceeding the Paris targets and entering a climate danger zone becomes almost inevitable," said Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer, who wasn't part of the research.


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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 22 Oct 2021, 16:48:05

Tanada wrote:
[b]Average Carbon Dioxide Levels Increasing Faster Than Ever, NOAA Says


And here I thought COP21 was going to save the world? Imagine that...selfie taking opportunities to yack it up and create no change still is the norm, even when it is important.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 23 Oct 2021, 00:00:49

AdamB wrote:
Tanada wrote:
[b]Average Carbon Dioxide Levels Increasing Faster Than Ever, NOAA Says


And here I thought COP21 was going to save the world? Imagine that...selfie taking opportunities to yack it up and create no change still is the norm, even when it is important.


The very large majority of human beings are a short sighted very tribal in outlook species. If what I do today helps me and doesn't harm my tribe in a way that will make the tribe punish me then all is sunshine and lollipops and we will let next week/month/year/generation look after themselves.

Every year we are more and more committed to flipping the climate so the Northern Hemisphere goes into greenhouse mode. The earth persisted in this climate state for a span of 30 million years aka 30,000,000,000 or about 500,000 times the adult average lifespan before modern medicine made us live past 50. Something to remember, all those statistics that mumble on and on about how people only lived to 36 years old on average are including the 40% of humans who died before the age of 5 when there were no vaccinations for childhood illnesses. It must have been really horrible to be a parent knowing that half of your children would die before reaching the official age of adulthood at 21. But when you add in all those childhood and teen deaths in a pre modern society to the statistics it really drops the overall average lifespan, which is very deceptive. If you made it to age 21 you had a good chance of making it to 42 and a fair chance of making it to 63, which is why when Social Security was created in the USA you could get partial benefits at 62 as a way of making your last year or so of life less desperate. The whole system was never intended for people like my parents who lived to be 85 and 89 respectively. My father drew social security for 18 years after retiring at 67 and my mother drew funds 27 years having started at 62 and living months past her 89th birthday.

My great concern as I approach those years is that some time between now and 62 the climate flip will take place and when it does the economy might come all the way unraveled eliminating all my savings and eliminating my meager hopes for drawing SSI. I think humanity is going to do fine in the Miocene Anthropocene climate condition. If all else fails we know from paleoclimate records that the southern hemisphere including Australia, about 80% of South America and about 40% of Africa will have a climate pretty much the same as it is today. Unfortunately all told only about 25% of the land surface of the planet is in the southern hemisphere and a good chunk of that is Antarctica which will still be pretty cold and ice covered for centuries. Europe-Asia-North America is the vast bulk of land on the planet and currently also the vast bulk of the population. If it turns out like the pessimists keep screaming and the lowlands become uninhabitable so you have to live up in the mountains or die of heat stroke then Denver will be fine but everyone in NYC and LA is going to be looking for a new place to live ASAP. That will fill up the mountains from Colorado to California with lots of humans still looking for a place to live which means a scenario where China relocates as many as possible to Australia after doing whatever is necessary and the teeming millions now living in the Nile Valley migrating up stream to Uganda where the Central African Plateau is at high enough elevation to make the lowland climate shift barely noticeable.

I don't believe that will happen but heck I never though I would end up divorced from my spouse deciding that having affairs was better than solving interpersonal problems. Twice. Anyhow, the point remains the same. I think we are dead set on full speed ahead to the climate flip and it could happen any time in the next two decades. The preponderance of scenario predictions that are based on hemispheric instead of global models predict the flip will happen in two phases. First phase will be very mild winters from the arctic circle south and the tropical/sub-tropical zones up to around 30 degrees north of the equator will become even warmer also mostly during the winter months. Then after from 7-14 years the second phase kicks in as the soil south of the Arctic Circle has spent that long absorbing solar energy in summers and the Arctic phase kicks in where Greenland and the Arctic Ocean reset to an ice free condition. Before anyone freaks out that means Greenland in summer has extreme melting but still the ice cap persists for as much as a century because winter temperatures aided by very low solar energy in the months of November through February refreezes the surface and accumulates fresh bright white snow that reflects sunlight until it melts in late spring. Given the freeze thaw cycle and massive volume of ice it could take as long as 300 years or as little as 90 years for the ice cap to completely melt away. A great deal depends on how accurate the sonar maps are that show Greenland being below sea level through the vast center of the island with Fjords that extend all the way to the sea. If those maps are correct then the cap could destabilize of be gone in 90 years. If those maps are correct and nothing is done to combat the situation I should say because in theory humans could place dams across each Fjord as it is exposed and prevent the ocean water from being able to undermine the ice cap. If the maps are wrong or humans effectively intervene then the melt should take around 300 years after the climate flips. No matter how you slice it though with a Northern Hemisphere Greenhouse climate state Greenland will all be ice free sooner or later which will bring up sea levels around 7 meters or 23 feet whichever measure you are more comfortable with. The naughty little secret that isn't talked about much is, once Greenland starts seriously melting and sea levels rise a meter or so that rise is likely to destabilize the West Antarctic Ice Sheet which we are fairly certain does have deep water channels right into its main mass that will cause a rapid collapse on the order of 90 years to drain the West Antarctic Basin.

If you are a climate refugee that might be good news, plant your flag ASAP in the Antarctic Peninsula and as the ice cap collapses you have a toe in the door to claim all those much less ice covered bits that are in the zone currently claimed by Chile and Argentina, the UK and Norway. The Chile/Argentina/UK claims are mostly an overlapping set of zones and it is no longer certain the UK could defeat the other two nations in forcing its claims forward in 2050 when it might actually be important. .

https://discoveringantarctica.org.uk/wp ... laims1.png

No matter how you slice it though I am not likely to live long enough for Antarctica to be viable living space so it is for me at least purely idle speculation. What concerns me is condition in North America between say 34 and 54 degrees north which is the zone where I have spent my whole life including a summer in New Mexico as a teen. I firmly believe this area will still be quite livable in the post flip climate, if I thought otherwise I would have moved somewhere else. I did not take it on faith either, I poured through every paleoclimate study I could access for information about this stripe of land across North America. The Great Plains are quite possibly destined to become a desert while the shifting wind patterns may turn southern California, Arizona and New Mexico green as rainfall patterns shift from moving most west to east to moving in a north by northwest angled directions which will carry the rain up the long valleys between the mountain ranges and drop that moisture where today we have rain shadow deserts caused by the western mountain ranges. Arizona and New Mexico would actually be substantially cooler than today in summer because there would be heavy cloud cover instead of the endless relentless blue desert sky they experience today. Lake Powell and Lake Meade will be at a constant near full pool condition which will allow a steady flow of electric power generation where today the lack of rainfall causes considerable periods of lower than optimal generation because the lake levels are too low to generate their full potential current.

In the south east Louisiana will be swamped fastest but Florida won't be too far behind. All of the Florida Keyes are former coral reef structures meaning they used to be from one to fifteen meters below sea level and the same is true of communities like Coral Gables and Miami that are actually built on bedrock that was formed as coral reef structures during the Pliocene when world sea levels were substantially higher than today.

If we survive as a technological culture through the climate flip and the bulk of the population survives the changes then I expect those folks and their descendants to decide climate flip was not the death spiral nightmare some people predict. Therefore they will look at the world that resulted and decide life is better with cheap electricity and resume burning coal without CO2 restriction even being contemplated. That would in turn lead to a world that would shoot past the 800 ppmv level where event the deep East Antarctic Ice Sheet will not longer be a feature. What I mean is, the Antarctic only started developing its ice sheet when world CO2 levels fell below 800 ppmv. In a world where no powerful people fear anything about Global Warming because they or their parents survived the climate flip there would be no reason to restrict CO2 generating activities like burning whatever fossil fuels you can access. Given the vast supplies of coal and very heavy oil that could be extracted if we had no hesitation to burn everything flammable our species could easily push CO2 levels up as high as 3,000 ppmv aka 3% of the atmosphere being CO2. We couldn't do this overnight of course, but without the fear of global warming to slow us down even the little bit that it has we will probably see increase rates of 3 ppmv to 5 ppmv by 2050. At those rates the change from 450 and flip north to 800 and flip southern hemisphere as well would take under a century. This means ultimately by 2150 all the damage is done because at that point further CO2 increases have very little impact meaning there is no real incentive to stop until fuel grows short and prices grow extreme.

And as unlikely as I am to see 2050 I am a hundred times less likely to see 2150 so this also is I suppose best called idle speculation. Greer wrote about this world in his Star's Reach novel except his belief is civilization would collapse at the first flip around 2050 into a kind of lawless era of warlords fighting over territory across North America and by the time things start to recover technology wise Antarctica has melted and the GOM extends all the way to Memphis, Tennessee as it did millions of years ago.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 23 Oct 2021, 06:10:44

Well I have an appointment with an undertaker in 2040 give or take a few years, so 90 years out is beyond my worry point. If the present rate of CO2 increase continues, (and I expect it will in spite of our best efforts) it would be at about 470 ppm in 2040. I am pretty sure humanity will adapt to that and it's consequences well enough.
If social security fails or more likely is cut back substantially by a third or more then all the retirees will be in the same boat and the price of golf and depends will go down.
A much more worrisome development is the Chinese development of nuclear tipped hyper-sonic missiles. A miscalculation there could dramatically change the world and it's climate overnight instead of decades.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 23 Oct 2021, 07:54:33

Tanada,

Thanks for that round up.

The question, in MY mind, is how humanity reacts to the inevitable changes. Human migration alone is very unsettling, as we can see today, with very minot pressure.

If Covid is any guide, we will not react well.

So I see you review as a best case scenario. I like your analysis about how people wont care in the future, provided they survive. I had not heard that before but it makes sense.

If course the active but there is “provided they survive.” I see Africa and China as the two inflection points. Africa because it is already very poor and has a high population growth rate and you can walk to Europe. China because it has a very low arable land per capita metric, with an aging and expectant population. They are sitting on a human time bomb. I think India is very aware of this.

Interesting time. I am 71 in a month. So there is that.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Oct 2021, 14:47:54

Tanada wrote: If it turns out like the pessimists keep screaming and the lowlands become uninhabitable so you have to live up in the mountains or die of heat stroke then Denver will be fine but everyone in NYC and LA is going to be looking for a new place to live ASAP.


Like it isn't happening already? Denver is already suffering a vermin infestation, usually spotted by the Texas and California and Illinois and Minnesota license plates you see when stopped at any traffic light.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Revi » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 20:59:12

Of course an ice age is coming, but we will need to endure Gaia's self cleaning oven cycle first. Then after we're gone it will revert back to the holocene again.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Oct 2021, 12:06:47

AdamB wrote:
Tanada wrote: If it turns out like the pessimists keep screaming and the lowlands become uninhabitable so you have to live up in the mountains or die of heat stroke then Denver will be fine but everyone in NYC and LA is going to be looking for a new place to live ASAP.


Like it isn't happening already? Denver is already suffering a vermin infestation, usually spotted by the Texas and California and Illinois and Minnesota license plates you see when stopped at any traffic light.


Tourists are annoying but only a minor symptom. Let me know when those out of state plates get replaced with in state plates because they have permanently relocated to your demesne.
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Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Oct 2021, 12:19:34

Newfie wrote:Tanada,

Thanks for that round up.

The question, in MY mind, is how humanity reacts to the inevitable changes. Human migration alone is very unsettling, as we can see today, with very minot pressure.

If Covid is any guide, we will not react well.

So I see you review as a best case scenario. I like your analysis about how people wont care in the future, provided they survive. I had not heard that before but it makes sense.

If course the active but there is “provided they survive.” I see Africa and China as the two inflection points. Africa because it is already very poor and has a high population growth rate and you can walk to Europe. China because it has a very low arable land per capita metric, with an aging and expectant population. They are sitting on a human time bomb. I think India is very aware of this.

Interesting time. I am 71 in a month. So there is that.


China today is very heavily invested in Africa, especially with rail systems being upgraded or newly built leading from the Indian Ocean port cities to the great central Upland Plateau. If I were paranoid I would say this is all in preparation for a mas migration to those upland where climate has been pretty stable for millions of years.

Central Africa is both equatorial and at fairly high altitude which gives it an incredibly stable climate. Just the part of this map in Yellow or Orange between 10 north and 10 south is larger than modern day China including Tibet. Tibet itself is also a place with projections of a good post warming climate. The Andes in South America have hosted several long lived civilizations most famously the Mapuche and Inca empires because mountain climates tend to be more stable than lowland climates. As far as that goes some of the oldest European settled locations were in the Swiss Alps, as ancient as any of the more famous locations but they went in for wooden structures so most of their physical villages/towns have long since rotted away or been paved over by modern peoples. I have no fear of "human extinction" given that we are the most wide spread species on the planet and our ancestors managed to live and thrive from the coast of the Arctic Ocean to the tip of South America and in every climate zone in between.
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