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Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Jan 2016, 18:15:17

2 years ago the US was exporting 49 million bbls of oil per year
3 years ago the US was exporting 24 million bbls of oil per year
5 years ago the US was exporting 15 million bbls of oil per year

And as of Oct 2015 the US was exporting oil at the rate of 183 MILLION BBLS year and we had the lowest oil price that month then we've seen for many years..

IOW: in Oct 2015 with oil exported at the rate of 183 million bbls/year we had an average price of $42.33/bbl. And 5 years ago when we exported 15 million bbls of oil prices averaged $74.71/bbl. So at a time when we exported 12X as much oil we got 40% less for our oil.

Based on that why would anyone expect the price of oil to go up because the US govt has repealed an oil ban law that has done nothing to limit the export of US oil? IOW who is going to now suddenly buy oil that didn't buy our oil before when there wasn't any real restrictions to doing so? As I've mentioned before I cannot find one waiver request to export US oil to a willing buyer that hasn't been granted. But there have been few requests for such wavers since most of our oil goes to Canada which doesn't even require a waiver.

Some folks seem to be under the impression that's there this huge market overseas just begging to buy US oil. Yet I've seen no one post a statement from such buyers indicating they had any more interest after the repeal of the "ban" then they did before.

Wow! 600,000 bbls of US oil might be on the way to Italy. According to the EIA between 2010 and 2014 the US exported about 234 MILLION BBLS OF OIL to all countries. And if that isn't recent enough for everyone: last Oct (the latest number from the EIA) the US exported 625,000 bo to Italy BEFORE THE US OIL EXPORT "BAN" WAS REPEALED. And the month before it was 333,000 bo. And 600,000 bo of US oil exported to Italy this month. IOW isn't it likely this load of oil was going to Italy whether the "ban" was repealed or not? And who else imported US oil last year: 1.4 MILLION BO US oil exported to Switzerland 12 months ago before the "ban was repealed".

Does anyone other than the Rockman look at the actual numbers before they express their "opinions"? lol.
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby Pops » Thu 07 Jan 2016, 18:30:13

So you finally looked at my link LOL
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 12 Jan 2016, 13:22:06

And yes: I looked at your link. In fact the EIA has always been my primary source for data. “…all anyone needs to do is look at the link to see that no, we haven't been exporting crude forever.” But how close do you look at your links? lol. OK, so you don’t want to look back over the years at the 1.5 BILLION bbls of US oil that has been exported since the “ban’ was passed.

All righty then: let’s just look at the last few months: The GREAT EVENT: they shipped 600,000 bo from Corpus Christi on 1 January and probably heading to Italy. First, such events don’t happen overnight. That oil was contracted and the ship chartered long before the POTUS lifted the “ban”. In fact this oil purchase may be part of a contract that was signed as far back as 5 or 6 months ago. So yes: 600,000 bo in January exported to Italy is a F*CKING NON-EVENT! LOL. Last Sept and Oct 958,000 bbls of US oil was exported to Italy. And guess what: the list hasn’t been update for Nov and Dec yet. Will you be shocked to see US oil exported to Italy during those two months? LOL.

But that’s just Italy: during Sept/Oct 2015 a total of 27.8 MILLION bbls of US oil was exported to other countries. And for the period Oct 2014 – Oct 2015: 186 MILLION bbls of US oil were exported to other countries. So yeah: 600,000 bo in one month vs 187,000,000 bo over the course of a year is a non-event in my book. Now I’ll let you explain why that 600,000 bo exported this month is a game changer for US drilled who saw during the period Oct 2014 – Oct 2015 over 186 MILLION bbls of US oil exported to other countries. Now I’ll let you explain why that 600,000 bo exported this month is a game changer for US drilled who saw 300X as much oil exported during the 12 month period as documented by the EIA…your link source.

“I can't figure out why you'd pretend it is a non-event?” I’m not pretending it’s a “non-event”: I’m providing solid EVIDENCE that it is absolutely a non-event. I must say I’m shocked that you’ve been taken in by the MSM hype about the “first US oil exports in 4 decades” bullsh*t…you’re usually as suspicious of them as I am. lol.
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Fracking drives US oil exports to record high

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 12:36:27


The world's largest oil consumer exported more hydrocarbons than ever before in 2017 and shows no signs of slowing down. You name it - crude oil, gasoline, diesel, propane and even liquefied natural gas - all were shipped abroad by the US at a record pace. While the surge comes many years after the shale boom started, it can be traced straight back to the growth of horizontal drilling and fracking. US exports are poised to expand even further, as the fear of peak oil supply has all but vanished just as a new demand threat emerges in the form of electric vehicles. Americans are expected to end the year pumping oil out of the ground at rates unseen since the early 1970s. More and more of it is going overseas, giving OPEC a headache as the group restrains its own output. Last year the


Fracking drives US oil exports to record high
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 16:34:07

According to the EIA in 2016 the US exported 216 million bbls of oil. Same year the US exported 1.7 BILLION BBLS of refinery products. Same year the US imported 2.9 BILLION BBLS of oil. Same year the US imported 800 million bbls of refinery products. So total bbls petroleum exported: 1.9 billion bbls. Total petroleum imported: 3.7 billion bbls. So we were still a net importer of 1.8 billion bbls of oil + refinery products. Or about 4.9 million bbls/day. Or bottom line in $’s: the US runs a huge deficit in petroleum.

FYI: In 2016 the US exported 216k bbls of oil. In 1980 it exported 105k bbls of oil. The year after the "ban" became law the US exported more oil then during the year before Congress passed the "law".
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 15:29:45

Obviously in 2016 the US exported 216 million bbls of oil. In 1980 it exported 105 million bbls of oil. The year after the "ban" became law the US exported more oil then during the year before Congress passed the "law".
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 17:35:54

There's talk about modifying LOOP to make it an export point.
Being able to load the world's largest capacity ships would give US producers a significant cost advantage on the global market.
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 17:40:07

coffee - Especially with the Panama Canal able to handle the "big boys".
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 17:55:07

coffee - Especially with the Panama Canal able to handle the "big boys". But might make more sense to expand Corpus Christi. They've already reversed 2 pipelines to haul EFS to the coast there. And some plans on the way to haul Permian oil to the Texas coast. Other then re-exporting oil there's not much new oil being produced on the La. end of the basin. La has never been much of an oil producer: peaked at 187 million bbls/yr in 1984 and down to just 56 million bbls in 2016. In 2016 Texas produced 1.2 BILLION bbls of oil...20X as much as La. Plus we have about 1 billion bbls/yr of Canadian oil reaching Texas.
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby Pops » Wed 22 Sep 2021, 09:41:47

America needs to be conserving its remaining hydrocarbon resources like our lives, and the lives of our kids, depends on it. Instead, in 2020 the US exported 1.28 billion barrels of Texas tight oil to Asia, etc. and America exported over 5.4 TCF of natural gas. We're going to wish, very soon, we had all those exported hydrocarbons back.

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h/t Hole in Head @ POB
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 22 Sep 2021, 14:32:47

As I've pointed out numerous time before our export of crude oil is not the prime issue. Last I checked we were the largest exporter of refinery products in the world. We peaked out at 3.44 million bbls/day in 2018. Latest reported number from the EIA in 2020 was 2.80 mmbpd. To see the true export raw crude exports need to be added to the refinery exports. That will show the true impact of our exports. IOW much of the crude we import is exported back out as product.
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby Pops » Wed 22 Sep 2021, 16:29:08

Our imports of crude has fallen: 3.5GB to 2.5GB in 10 years
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/imports/b ... D-US-ALL.A

Our exports of crude have risen: from very little to over 1GB

But finished product exports have stayed relatively stable at around 1GB
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_e ... mbbl_a.htm

A difference of 2Gb a year. 2GB a year that we will be wishing we'd kept around here in a very few years when OPEC is calling the shots.

Or this winter after Nat gas prices double a few more times.

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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 22 Sep 2021, 20:15:33

Crude ,in to finished products out, dose make the figures murky. But consider that what we are doing is taking somebodies oil and refining it then sending it off to the final customer, perhaps the producer but more often to another market. It makes zero difference to our own domestic supply but does generate a tidy little profit for the transporters and refiners that did the work.
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 22 Sep 2021, 23:17:52

Pops wrote:A difference of 2Gb a year. 2GB a year that we will be wishing we'd kept around here in a very few years when OPEC is calling the shots.


Bob Hirsch wrote the same idea down and published it in the late 1980's, OPEC taking over the world for an early 1990's early crisis. That was before he did that 2005 DOE report and finished discrediting himself on resource economics.

Yamani knew exactly how much OPEC should be calling the shots, and they did without much complaint from anyone except domestic producers all the way through the end of the 20th century and then some. February of 2013 if I was to put a finger on the when.
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby Pops » Tue 28 Sep 2021, 09:07:46

So far in 2021 LNG exports from the United States are up a startling 42% from 2020, to 9.6 BCFPD. Total gas exports including to Canada and Mexico are approaching 15 BCFPD. Man, that's a lot of gas. That is partially why Henry Hub has been trading in the low $5 range and its clearly hurting American industries and the American consumer.

The shale industry, where all this LNG is coming from, doesn't give a rats ass about the American consumer; if it can expand its market to a gas starved Europe, for instance, it will sell it there.

If you think the exact same thing won't happen to crude oil some day, soon, your gonna be shocked. It would have already happened but for the lousy quality of light tight shale oil and the discounts it receives when sold over seas.

https://www.oilystuffblog.com/news-stuff

Seizing on higher US natural gas prices expected this winter, a group of industrial manufacturers is making a pitch for the Department of Energy to limit LNG exports and put a hold on some pending export project authorizations.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... ng-exports
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 28 Sep 2021, 09:31:40

Pops wrote:
Seizing on higher US natural gas prices expected this winter, a group of industrial manufacturers is making a pitch for the Department of Energy to limit LNG exports and put a hold on some pending export project authorizations.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... ng-exports


Boy I knew this one was coming. There have been serious expectations for more than a couple years now about exactly this consequence of LNG exports. Once the global fungibility of natural gas reached a certain point, and prices began to reflect global supply/demand dynamics, domestic consumers were going to be in for a rude awakening. Domestic producers will be thrilled of course, but they aren't the ones the political types are going to be listening to, screaming as they will be at increased residential heating costs.

And when prices go high and stay there, and power generation utilities equilibrate longer term contracts against natgas fired power generation costs, katie bar the door on all the electricity using world howling bloody murder.
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 29 Sep 2021, 02:00:44

Pops wrote:
America needs to be conserving its remaining hydrocarbon resources like our lives, and the lives of our kids, depends on it. Instead, in 2020 the US exported 1.28 billion barrels of Texas tight oil to Asia, etc. and America exported over 5.4 TCF of natural gas. We're going to wish, very soon, we had all those exported hydrocarbons back.

Mike Shellman
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https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-po ... fe4de5fc22
h/t Hole in Head @ POB

I'm not convinced it's a disaster (time will tell), BUT, I'd certainly prefer we held onto our supplies for at least a decade or three, and see where we are.

At that point, if the world is 95% or more BEV's and Hot Fusion is a thing, etc., then it might not matter. If that sort of scenario falls through, we might need it a lot. And even if we no longer want to burn much of it for energy or transport, we'll need LOTS of petrochemicals for a LONG time to come unless technology allows massive substitutions at low prices.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Wed 29 Sep 2021, 12:51:54

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I'm not convinced it's a disaster (time will tell), BUT, I'd certainly prefer we held onto our supplies for at least a decade or three, and see where we are.


That's a tough sell in a society that is very focused on the now and not the future. A huge amount of domestic oil would still be in the ground if the US had European level taxes on fuel. That would be political suicide though as so many Americans have built a lifestyle on the basis of having unlimited supplies of relatively cheap fuel.
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Re: Lifting The US Crude Export Ban

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 29 Sep 2021, 16:36:51

yellowcanoe wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:I'm not convinced it's a disaster (time will tell), BUT, I'd certainly prefer we held onto our supplies for at least a decade or three, and see where we are.


That's a tough sell in a society that is very focused on the now and not the future. A huge amount of domestic oil would still be in the ground if the US had European level taxes on fuel. That would be political suicide though as so many Americans have built a lifestyle on the basis of having unlimited supplies of relatively cheap fuel.

Good points. After a lifetime of relative success borne of learning to be patient, learned from my frugal depression era parents, I suppose I can't help myself.

And hell, as an early computer tech. adopter and career computer geek, I just LOVE video games! Go figure.

So it can be political suicide in the short term (which if true, clearly the politicians won't go for), or perhaps better outcomes in the long term (which you're right, most Americans won't wait for), so either way, we better hope we get lucky, because being prudent and patient won't fly with most of the "I can comment on the internet, so I'm an expert on everything I have an intuition about" crowd.

But of course, no matter WHAT happens, 90%+ of the impatient will blame someone, ANYONE but themselves, and convince themselves they're "right, because my intuition tells me that", if things don't go their way.

What could POSSIBLY go wrong with such thinking? /s
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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