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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Sep 2021, 18:02:35

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: I agree on Medicare as a heart bypass operation costs as much for one patient as another but social security is pegged to how much the individual paid in, so the person retiring from a $40K job gets half what a person retiring from an $80K job.

No, they don't re the wages doubling means SS income doubles. That's a false assumption and simply factually incorrect for anyone making more than about $800 a week.

Well at least I got you to do the googling. :)
Of course all those earning above the maximum (145K or so today) get the same amount reguardless of how much more above the limit they make and frankly I don't worry much about people making over $200K a year.
I started drawing social security at age 62 and am still getting a little over $20K from it along with over $15K from my state retirement plus healthcare. Most of my working career I made a bit less then the median income for the year so I am pretty average. My only advantage was in getting myself fully out of debt with house and cars all paid for etc. before I retired.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 14 Sep 2021, 05:55:31

theluckycountry wrote:
mousepad wrote:
theluckycountry wrote: It is the little guy that takes most of the money back off the government


It's almost as if the gov tries to encourage mooching.


Yes they have haven't they, by incompetence, or design? One thing is for certain, people have very little independence now, GOV is mother Father and Big Brother.

I don't know. Doesn't it sort of depend upon what a person means when they talk about suffering? I mean, you can say that a person "suffers" if they deviate from some normal state of happiness. That happy state doesn't have to necessarily be a fulfilling state. It could actually keep a person from taking the chances they need in order to fulfill themselves.

It is also possible to associate this sort of state with some common emotional state that everybody feels because of certain things going throughout society. I wonder if you can trust that state to fulfill you? It may seem like it, but, since everything it talks about is a defined by being part of a group, you will have to take a huge chance to try.

Because of the danger of how we tend to look at sunk costs, there is little likelihood of finding the breadcrumbs back to the way it was before you let them take over. If you are unlucky enough to lose everything there is the greatest danger because doubt over the very ability to achieve success lies at the heart of so much of what they say. If you accept it was rigged, it is getting late for you.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 14 Sep 2021, 13:42:02

vtsnowedin wrote:.
Well at least I got you to do the googling. :)
Of course all those earning above the maximum (145K or so today) get the same amount reguardless of how much more above the limit they make and frankly I don't worry much about people making over $200K a year.

I knew the concept re the SS payments offhand, but given how things change re rules, inflation, etc. I wasn't at all sure on where the percentages changed. And I knew the percentages were ABOUT 90%, 30%, and 15%, but that's as close as I could remember.

Google is a great help for those of us without anything like the reliable and detailed memories we had back in our 20's. :)

I agree completely re those making large salaries being all set. (They can make various lifestyle choices if they live in an expensive area, and increasingly at those salary levels they can often telecommute and live somewhere cheap).

My maximum salary was about half that $200K figure in 2006 -- I had exactly ONE year where I finally hit the SS max before retiring, as IBM quit giving decent merit raises in the 00's.

So trust me, I did NOT get to a comfortable retirement by having some massive job income, but in being frugal, and saving and investing very consistently my entire working life (from age 12), though until post college, "investing" was in high yield savings accounts and CD's which at least kept up with 70's inflation overall.
I helped pay my way through college (which also helped motivate me to study more), but it was possible not to accrue huge student loans back then, even for fairly poor people who would work part time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Tuike » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 10:35:34

Morgan Stanley Sees Growing Risk of 20% Drop in S&P 500 -yahoo
A plunge of more than 20% in U.S. stocks is looking more like a real possibility, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson. While it’s still a worst-case scenario, the bank said that evidence is starting to point to weaker growth and falling consumer confidence. Stocks globally fell on Monday on concern that the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group could impact the broader financial system. U.S. futures pointed to a drop of about 1% at the market open. Still, the S&P 500 is just about 2% off its all-time highs. Among Wall Street strategists, Morgan Stanley is more bearish than most, but their views echo other banks that have come out with ominous predictions recently. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. have also written about the potential for negative shocks to end the U.S. market’s relentless rise.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 10:55:09

Tuike wrote:Morgan Stanley Sees Growing Risk of 20% Drop in S&P 500 -yahoo
A plunge of more than 20% in U.S. stocks is looking more like a real possibility, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson. While it’s still a worst-case scenario, the bank said that evidence is starting to point to weaker growth and falling consumer confidence. Stocks globally fell on Monday on concern that the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group could impact the broader financial system. U.S. futures pointed to a drop of about 1% at the market open. Still, the S&P 500 is just about 2% off its all-time highs. Among Wall Street strategists, Morgan Stanley is more bearish than most, but their views echo other banks that have come out with ominous predictions recently. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. have also written about the potential for negative shocks to end the U.S. market’s relentless rise.

OTOH, we're in part TWENTY TWO of this long running short-term-doom claim re the stock market blowing up and the economy blowing up with it (the context of the initial claim).

Meanwhile, with the usual fits and starts, the S&P 500 has roughly doubled the past 5 years WITHOUT dividends. And aside from the (understandable) Covid-19 panic last Feb./March, it's been straight up and to the right as a trend, the whole time.

If someone can't handle the occasional down day, or even 10% or 20% correction, then they should NOT be in the stock market as an investment. (But "oooh scary", the S&P down 2% or so from the all time highs. What EVER will we do?)

I've been waiting for a tech. pullback to sell some Oct. to Dec. pretty far OTM put options on some quality stocks, and managed to get some of those sold on quality stocks and funds this morning near the lows, being patient.

For example, being paid $400 to buy AAPL at 135 through Nov. 19th seems just dandy to me, given I'd be willing to hold it for a decade or so, and/or sell the occasional call against it if it jumps up a fair amount. Or most likely just keep the $400 when people calm down in a week or three, and AAPL gets back to the $150 ballpark it's been trading at for awhile now.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 11:58:54

Yes corrections and down turns are buying opportunities. I had a small dividend payment show up last week and I'm going to add it on to one of my winning stocks but when I saw the futures this morning (Down 700 at one point) I decided to sit on it as long as this slide lasts.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 12:18:29

Here is an interesting bit about the proposed tax bill.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/house-t ... s-ira.html
Key Points

The House Ways and Means Committee passed a tax package on Wednesday that would require withdrawals from retirement accounts worth more than $10 million.
Peter Thiel, billionaire co-founder of PayPal, would likely need to withdraw all but $20 million of his Roth IRA, reportedly valued at $5 billion.
Thiel, 53, would owe income tax on any investment earnings he withdraws due to current retirement distribution rules.

I believe this goes against the spirit of the Constitutions prohibition of ipso facto laws if not current rulings. Changing the rules after one has played by the rules is always poor sportsmanship.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 19:08:51

Well the markets were all down sharply today. DOW down 614 points or -1.78%. Perhaps a real correction has started. Would anyone like to make a prediction of how many down days we will see and the Dow level at that bottom?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 21 Sep 2021, 05:43:58

evilgenius wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:
mousepad wrote:
theluckycountry wrote: It is the little guy that takes most of the money back off the government


It's almost as if the gov tries to encourage mooching.


Yes they have haven't they, by incompetence, or design? One thing is for certain, people have very little independence now, GOV is mother Father and Big Brother.


I don't know. Doesn't it sort of depend upon what a person means when they talk about suffering? I mean, you can say that a person "suffers" if they deviate from some normal state of happiness...

Because of the danger of how we tend to look at sunk costs, there is little likelihood of finding the breadcrumbs back to the way it was before you let them take over...

If you accept it was rigged, it is getting late for you.


Everything is rigged and always was. Those in power have been at this game since the first Pharaoh passed edicts to conscript workers to build his tomb. There have been long periods of general freedom in history but these are usually associated with times of low economic activity. I'm not against the system, it brings prosperity to those who keep out of the jaws of the beast.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 21 Sep 2021, 06:11:12

theluckycountry wrote:
evilgenius wrote:


If you accept it was rigged, it is getting late for you.


Everything is rigged and always was. Those in power have been at this game since the first Pharaoh passed edicts to conscript workers to build his tomb. There have been long periods of general freedom in history but these are usually associated with times of low economic activity. I'm not against the system, it brings prosperity to those who keep out of the jaws of the beast.

That it does.

Of course everybody else wants their own way. They will cheat you, if they can. They want what you have, or could have. You do have to operate expecting them to do that.

Then there are those whose worldview doesn't allow room for yours. They think everything you do is wrong, like if you want to use the land and the government doesn't want it used anymore. The problem is that letting them take your will to succeed can stop you. Some things, like the government, do have the power to actually ruin your life.

It isn't that these situations are a call to violence, though, but a call to express your own point better, so that your position wins in whatever court these things get decided in. I think it is, ultimately, that most of these get settled in the court of public opinion.

One of the problems we are having right now is that people forget this, that they are not the only ones in the argument. Those we like to hate have a position too. If we really are right, and not just entitled, we should be able to at least hear what they have to say. Most people conveniently forget to enter into arguments with the understanding that they could be wrong. You can say a lot to those people. The proper argument, however, is probably not the one that will persuade them.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 21 Sep 2021, 06:58:56

evilgenius wrote:That it does.

Of course everybody else wants their own way. They will cheat you, if they can...

Then there are those whose worldview doesn't allow room for yours. They think everything you do is wrong...

It isn't that these situations are a call to violence, though, but a call to express your own point better, so that your position wins in whatever court these things get decided in. I think it is, ultimately, that most of these get settled in the court of public opinion.

One of the problems we are having right now is that people forget this, that they are not the only ones in the argument... You can say a lot to those people. The proper argument, however, is probably not the one that will persuade them.


I was done trying to persuade people long ago EG, the fact is the vast majority are trapped in the system by the general consensus of their peers and the Media. They will follow along like lemmings off a cliff. I think of all the farmers who lost their land back in the depression because they were lured into taking on debts in the good times to expand. It made sense, and the bankers were very helpful, but a few years later they were landless, walking West in hope of finding a job in California.

Or the wealthier ones who put their gold coins in safe-deposit boxes, not trusting themselves to hide them effectively. It must have made them feel important to go into the bank and have a clerk open the box with them, usher them into a private room. So much more refined than digging holes around their home. But then one weekend the law changed and they could only open the box in the presence of an agent of the IRS, who would remove THEIR gold coins and deposit pieces of paper in their place. A year or so later the gold jumped in value by 50% but they profited not from this. What did they do with the paper? Was it lost in bank collapse? We could face those again and the federal insurance on bank accounts will mean nothing if the money is repaid slowly in watered down dollars.

These are the fates we need to avoid, it doesn't matter what the stock market is doing today, in a year it could be down 30% and that in a time of rampant inflation. You speak of violence, of demanding justice? We make own own justice, or at least I do. Laws mean nothing in the face of freedom, but to maintain freedom you must not fight the system, there are better ways and it is these ways I discuss here.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 23 Sep 2021, 02:00:47

Well it has been an interesting month so far. From were I was on August tenth I have been whipsawed up and down from one day to the next but am right back where I started on 8/10. I guess it is just a test of my discipline preparing me for bigger events to come.
It would not surprise me to see the Biden administration foul things up enough to cause a twenty percent decline sometime this year. The question becomes what stocks ,if any, to hold through that correction. I am researching that but as yet have no answers solid enough to act on.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 24 Sep 2021, 19:37:20

Here's a sure-fire stock trading strategy.

Just buy and sell whatever stocks Nancy Pelosi buys and sells.

Nancy Pelosi, as Speaker of the House, is in the ideal position to know all kinds of inside info about the stock market, and nancy Pelosi can also write new laws and regulations that help some companies and hurt others. All she has to do is trade on her inside information and she can't help but make money. This is even better then Hillary Clinton investing in cattle futures.

Image
Just make the same trades and own the same stocks that Nancy Pelosi and her husband do, and you too can become rich right along with Nancy Pelosi!!

tiktok-traders-are-using-nancy-pelosis-financial-disclosures-position-their-portfolios

Cheers!
250 million thousand people have died of covid---Joe Biden
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 24 Sep 2021, 19:54:56

vtsnowedin wrote:Well it has been an interesting month so far. From were I was on August tenth I have been whipsawed up and down from one day to the next but am right back where I started on 8/10. I guess it is just a test of my discipline preparing me for bigger events to come.
It would not surprise me to see the Biden administration foul things up enough to cause a twenty percent decline sometime this year. The question becomes what stocks ,if any, to hold through that correction. I am researching that but as yet have no answers solid enough to act on.

So if, for example, the GOP refuses to raise the debt ceiling and causes a default (the most obvious way to cause 20+% stock market declines), it's the Biden administration's fault?

Got it. Politics is so "honest" in its telling from either side of the aisle if one only listens to one side. :roll:

Just one more reason I am a moderate...

BTW, if you can out-trade markets overall, including timing the market panics (and getting out in time, and missing any gains in the mean time), good luck with that over a timeframe of decades.

Just consider all the perma-bears who have declared we have been "in a depression" since 2008, etc. NONE of them outperform the markets, over time. :idea:

I completely missed the spring 2020 Covid-19 debacle, aside from selling some expensive puts on VERY low priced stocks like CVX at the bottom. (And I missed out not just buying them, but I never claimed to be a market timer, much less a good market timer). At least I'm honest with myself and my portfolio on that after 40 years of lessons learned being in the market.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 24 Sep 2021, 22:00:57

Outcast_Searcher wrote: if, for example, the GOP refuses to raise the debt ceiling and causes a default....


Sorry to intrude with some reality, but the GOP doesn't control anything that happens in DC.

Right now the Ds control the House, the Senate and the White House.

Its the Ds responsibility to raise the debt ceiling.....and the Ds are failing at it miserably so far.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
it's the Biden administration's fault?


Of course it is.

Biden and the Ds control everything that happens in DC right now.

That means the Ds are responsible for their own actions. IF the Ds do dumb things and screw things up in DC, then the Ds are to blame.

This current impasse over raising the debt ceiling is entirely the Ds fault.

Biden (and the Ds) campaigned in 2020 on a promise to rule in a bi-partisan fashion in order to get past the Trump years. Instead, Biden and the Ds decided to do everything in Congress with only Ds votes.

Well...now the lies the Ds told in the 2020 campaign about ruling in a bipartisan fashion have caught up with them. If the Ds want to have a bipartisan vote to raise the debt limit, then the Ds need to also jettison their crazy spending schemes and start negotiating some bipartisan budget deals with the Rs, including a bi-partisan deal to raise the debt limit.


Its time for a D + R lovefest in DC

The Ds and Rs should cooperate on getting things done. Bipartisanship is what we need in DC----not the crazy D partisanship designed to ignore the Rs and pass D-only spending bills.

Cheers!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 25 Sep 2021, 03:43:07

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
BTW, if you can out-trade markets overall, including timing the market panics (and getting out in time, and missing any gains in the mean time), good luck with that over a timeframe of decades.

Just consider all the perma-bears who have declared we have been "in a depression" since 2008, etc. NONE of them outperform the markets, over time. :idea:


I am an investor not a trader. Just matching the market is difficult even for so called experts charging you fees for their advise. But it is easy for an investor to do by buying whole market index funds and holding them.And boring.
Picking individual stocks is a losers game as despite our personal arrogance about our ability to predict winners in aggregate we are all average. Every stock trade has both a winner and a loser. The seller is betting his stock will go down while the buyer thinks it will go up. Only one can be right.
But picking individual stocks can be fun if you are not betting the rent money and the news brings us changing conditions and new innovations that will translate to profits and increased stock prices for some companies and declines and bankruptcies for others. Would you like to buy some stock in Chinese real estate developers? :)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 25 Sep 2021, 04:13:50

I've been watching Moderna (MRNA) lately and I think I am seeing some price manipulation going on. Every few days it gets sold off enough to drop the price $25 to $50, and then it will climb back up over the next few trading days then repeats the process. Could it be some large hedge fund brokers are milking money from day traders and new retail investors?
I checked insider trading and the CEO did sell eight million worth of his nine billion stock holdings but that is pretty small potatoes to the market. He sold at $436/share and the price lately has bounced around between $400 and $460 .
I don't really care as I bought it at $63 but it does make my bottom line chart look like a sick mans EKGs. :-D
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 25 Sep 2021, 12:35:40

Last Monday the market was down. I transferred some money to my trading account and bought some things. I could have been wrong. I wasn't.

I own 18 positions. 2 days later, all of them were up at once. That's unusual. It feels good to expect that after having invested accordingly. But, yeah, it's not like I really knew. I was just confident.

I have a thesis. I am an investor. I think every stock I own is eventually going much higher. Pullbacks of any kind are an opportunity to build my positions at cheaper prices. Hopefully, everything will go up by so much that it doesn't matter what price I get into anything at right now, but let's be realistic. That's why I have a portfolio, so that I can use diversification to help me with those that don't. Keeping my cost per share down makes sense, for the losers. Some of them could be winners, with some discipline.

I guess I am an optimist, even though I am such friends with pessimism. Along those lines, I learned during the Covid Crash that I like to strike too hot right away. I like to pounce upon cheap price opportunities for too many shares, not sit back and see if the price will go lower. I thought about that on Monday, and only allowed myself so much to spend. I didn't buy anything I wasn't already into. You need to always keep some powder dry, as it were.

During Covid, I bought almost my whole position in ABB right away, when it hit the first attractive strike price. I didn't think about how the price could keep going down, and down. I could have had so many more shares. Monday's thing could have been the same. Who knows if the collapse of a huge 300 billion dollar Chinese property developer still won't have ramifications? But it did seem like there wasn't any immediate reason to actually be afraid. Plus, no matter what happens with that, it won't change my thesis. I decided not to be so afraid that I didn't do anything. I balanced that with not doing too much.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 25 Sep 2021, 14:11:01

I have currently 33 positions as you call them plus two index funds. But 16 of them are in the range of $100 value plus or minus depending on how they have fared post purchase. Others that were started with $100 that gained I have added to with an eye to having those up to $500 and then $1000 each. I don't think they will all go "much higher" as that is unlikely but I do hope the group will at least match the market or perhaps do a few percent better year in and year out.
A modest long term goal for me would be averaging a gain of $50 per business day or $12,500 a year which would be a nice addition to my fixed income. I will need to triple my base for that to be a multi year average.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 26 Sep 2021, 10:55:58

vtsnowedin wrote:Yes corrections and down turns are buying opportunities. I had a small dividend payment show up last week and I'm going to add it on to one of my winning stocks but when I saw the futures this morning (Down 700 at one point) I decided to sit on it as long as this slide lasts.

I hold LOTS of cash for the very long term, and ONLY invest that (gradually) when the market gets really ugly. So like in fall 2008 and spring 2009, increasingly in 2002-2003, but I missed that in 2020 thinking it would get MUCH worse at the bottom. I think buying QQQ monthly in 2003 near the tech bottom at 30X the rate I was buying it in 1997-2000, for example, was one of my best trading decisions.

But if I have money like dividends that I plan to invest/reinvest short term, I don't understand the decision NOT to invest that if the market took a decent hit, i.e. a buying opportunity. (And if the market goes down, say, 20% or more, then you just buy with the next dividend/opportunity at much better prices, etc.)

But each to his own. It's not like I am able to do much better than the market overall, given my active trading history over nearly 40 years, though I am improving in recent years. (Hope springs eternal. :) ).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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