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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Sep 2021, 18:02:35

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: I agree on Medicare as a heart bypass operation costs as much for one patient as another but social security is pegged to how much the individual paid in, so the person retiring from a $40K job gets half what a person retiring from an $80K job.

No, they don't re the wages doubling means SS income doubles. That's a false assumption and simply factually incorrect for anyone making more than about $800 a week.

Well at least I got you to do the googling. :)
Of course all those earning above the maximum (145K or so today) get the same amount reguardless of how much more above the limit they make and frankly I don't worry much about people making over $200K a year.
I started drawing social security at age 62 and am still getting a little over $20K from it along with over $15K from my state retirement plus healthcare. Most of my working career I made a bit less then the median income for the year so I am pretty average. My only advantage was in getting myself fully out of debt with house and cars all paid for etc. before I retired.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 14 Sep 2021, 05:55:31

theluckycountry wrote:
mousepad wrote:
theluckycountry wrote: It is the little guy that takes most of the money back off the government


It's almost as if the gov tries to encourage mooching.


Yes they have haven't they, by incompetence, or design? One thing is for certain, people have very little independence now, GOV is mother Father and Big Brother.

I don't know. Doesn't it sort of depend upon what a person means when they talk about suffering? I mean, you can say that a person "suffers" if they deviate from some normal state of happiness. That happy state doesn't have to necessarily be a fulfilling state. It could actually keep a person from taking the chances they need in order to fulfill themselves.

It is also possible to associate this sort of state with some common emotional state that everybody feels because of certain things going throughout society. I wonder if you can trust that state to fulfill you? It may seem like it, but, since everything it talks about is a defined by being part of a group, you will have to take a huge chance to try.

Because of the danger of how we tend to look at sunk costs, there is little likelihood of finding the breadcrumbs back to the way it was before you let them take over. If you are unlucky enough to lose everything there is the greatest danger because doubt over the very ability to achieve success lies at the heart of so much of what they say. If you accept it was rigged, it is getting late for you.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 14 Sep 2021, 13:42:02

vtsnowedin wrote:.
Well at least I got you to do the googling. :)
Of course all those earning above the maximum (145K or so today) get the same amount reguardless of how much more above the limit they make and frankly I don't worry much about people making over $200K a year.

I knew the concept re the SS payments offhand, but given how things change re rules, inflation, etc. I wasn't at all sure on where the percentages changed. And I knew the percentages were ABOUT 90%, 30%, and 15%, but that's as close as I could remember.

Google is a great help for those of us without anything like the reliable and detailed memories we had back in our 20's. :)

I agree completely re those making large salaries being all set. (They can make various lifestyle choices if they live in an expensive area, and increasingly at those salary levels they can often telecommute and live somewhere cheap).

My maximum salary was about half that $200K figure in 2006 -- I had exactly ONE year where I finally hit the SS max before retiring, as IBM quit giving decent merit raises in the 00's.

So trust me, I did NOT get to a comfortable retirement by having some massive job income, but in being frugal, and saving and investing very consistently my entire working life (from age 12), though until post college, "investing" was in high yield savings accounts and CD's which at least kept up with 70's inflation overall.
I helped pay my way through college (which also helped motivate me to study more), but it was possible not to accrue huge student loans back then, even for fairly poor people who would work part time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Tuike » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 10:35:34

Morgan Stanley Sees Growing Risk of 20% Drop in S&P 500 -yahoo
A plunge of more than 20% in U.S. stocks is looking more like a real possibility, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson. While it’s still a worst-case scenario, the bank said that evidence is starting to point to weaker growth and falling consumer confidence. Stocks globally fell on Monday on concern that the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group could impact the broader financial system. U.S. futures pointed to a drop of about 1% at the market open. Still, the S&P 500 is just about 2% off its all-time highs. Among Wall Street strategists, Morgan Stanley is more bearish than most, but their views echo other banks that have come out with ominous predictions recently. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. have also written about the potential for negative shocks to end the U.S. market’s relentless rise.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 10:55:09

Tuike wrote:Morgan Stanley Sees Growing Risk of 20% Drop in S&P 500 -yahoo
A plunge of more than 20% in U.S. stocks is looking more like a real possibility, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson. While it’s still a worst-case scenario, the bank said that evidence is starting to point to weaker growth and falling consumer confidence. Stocks globally fell on Monday on concern that the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group could impact the broader financial system. U.S. futures pointed to a drop of about 1% at the market open. Still, the S&P 500 is just about 2% off its all-time highs. Among Wall Street strategists, Morgan Stanley is more bearish than most, but their views echo other banks that have come out with ominous predictions recently. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. have also written about the potential for negative shocks to end the U.S. market’s relentless rise.

OTOH, we're in part TWENTY TWO of this long running short-term-doom claim re the stock market blowing up and the economy blowing up with it (the context of the initial claim).

Meanwhile, with the usual fits and starts, the S&P 500 has roughly doubled the past 5 years WITHOUT dividends. And aside from the (understandable) Covid-19 panic last Feb./March, it's been straight up and to the right as a trend, the whole time.

If someone can't handle the occasional down day, or even 10% or 20% correction, then they should NOT be in the stock market as an investment. (But "oooh scary", the S&P down 2% or so from the all time highs. What EVER will we do?)

I've been waiting for a tech. pullback to sell some Oct. to Dec. pretty far OTM put options on some quality stocks, and managed to get some of those sold on quality stocks and funds this morning near the lows, being patient.

For example, being paid $400 to buy AAPL at 135 through Nov. 19th seems just dandy to me, given I'd be willing to hold it for a decade or so, and/or sell the occasional call against it if it jumps up a fair amount. Or most likely just keep the $400 when people calm down in a week or three, and AAPL gets back to the $150 ballpark it's been trading at for awhile now.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 11:58:54

Yes corrections and down turns are buying opportunities. I had a small dividend payment show up last week and I'm going to add it on to one of my winning stocks but when I saw the futures this morning (Down 700 at one point) I decided to sit on it as long as this slide lasts.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 12:18:29

Here is an interesting bit about the proposed tax bill.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/house-t ... s-ira.html
Key Points

The House Ways and Means Committee passed a tax package on Wednesday that would require withdrawals from retirement accounts worth more than $10 million.
Peter Thiel, billionaire co-founder of PayPal, would likely need to withdraw all but $20 million of his Roth IRA, reportedly valued at $5 billion.
Thiel, 53, would owe income tax on any investment earnings he withdraws due to current retirement distribution rules.

I believe this goes against the spirit of the Constitutions prohibition of ipso facto laws if not current rulings. Changing the rules after one has played by the rules is always poor sportsmanship.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 19:08:51

Well the markets were all down sharply today. DOW down 614 points or -1.78%. Perhaps a real correction has started. Would anyone like to make a prediction of how many down days we will see and the Dow level at that bottom?
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