Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Polybius » Sun 12 Sep 2021, 22:06:09

evilgenius wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:
warpig13 wrote:Hello,

It seems fairly obvious to me that Covid 19 is a smokescreen to preserve the remaining oil supplies and replace the existing financial system/social structure, to prevent western society from collapsing.


Financially speaking, the elephant in the room as far as social control is all the wealth the people of the globe "Think" they have. 40, 50, 60 years of retirement savings, Untold Trillions, all locked away in digital accounts, invested in companies and government bonds that are overinflated at best, or worthless in many cases. The basic equation was [ We will pay you all this back out of our future profits ] but there won't be any profits for most companies in the future because they are all based on debt growth or totally dependent on cheap oil.

A reset, a collapse in the markets worldwide, will remove all these liabilities from the books and allow the system to begin again, as the western capitalist system has, 5 or 6 times over the last 400 years. The Great Depression was the last but that was only a partial reset, the cheap oil allowed the system to re-inflate and then go on steroids after 1970. All this is obvious to the sentient observer, to deny it is to say we can all sit on our bums and live lavish lifestyles while "someone else" provides all the goods and energy we want to consume.

Are you suggesting something like Social Darwinism, the role that creative destruction is supposed to have in that process? Are you aware that, very much like eugenics, that comes with built in biases that are likely to tilt you toward picking certain winners and losers? Can you see the built in tension with the indolent class? They won't accept starving to death, let alone a cut back on the cheap things that allow them to get through life. They are, however, manipulable. We watch marketers successfully reach out to them every day!


Money is just a mere abstract symbolic token representation of the ability of cheap and abundant
higher EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) energy to do 'work' on our behalf. No amount
of funny-money fiscal policy can change the fact that the underlying physical system that powers
absolutely everything we do has ran out of energy. It does the world absolutely zero net-benefit to
expend more energy to extract, process and make useable an energy source than the energy we
can get out of it, regardless of how much money someone is willing to pay for it. Likewise, Ethanol
as a net-energy-sink (basically converting oil to fertilizers to grow corn and then reconverting corn
back to fuel) also does nothing but serve to make our collective energy problem that much worse
regardless of how much the government is willing to economically/price subsidize for it.


When the quality and quantity of energy available to us continues to decline and decrease, then
proportionately so does the value or purchasing power of the money that we hold... for that money
was a mere representation of the 'multiplier-effect' of energy/work and the resulting productivity that
cheap energy had amplified and enabled. But with the energy depleted so too does our money
become worthless.


In high school and through much of our higher education we are all taught the concept of the “time
value of money”. We are told that if we save a little and put aside a portion of our money to allow it
to grow (“make your money work for you”) that by the time we retire at age 65 or 70 or older, that
given a reasonably sustained interest rate and steady overall rate of return of the growth of our
savings due to compound interest, etc it would have amassed into a small fortune of a few million
dollars or more.


All of the above is indeed predicated upon the assumption of perpetual and continuous global
growth. In pre-agricultural times when there were no forms of monetary accounting nor any
surplus, we consumed what we had and when we had it, and anything extra that we set aside
would either retain value or lose value over time, naturally and even from a physics and
thermodynamics and entropy standpoint, it would certainly never “grow” in value. So taken in
aggregate and in general, the growth of an individual’s savings or “investments” is directly coupled
to the overall ability of society to grow as a whole. By deferring expenditures and putting that aside
and allocating that portion of their monies to go towards capital to helping society and civilization to
continue to expand, populate, and grow, the individual is repaid in kind at the end of his or her life
as their investment in the entire pool is conflated with the overall growth of society. By putting a
piece of their money into the pie, their individual slice grows larger as the entire pie as a whole
expands.


In the long run, and from the bigger picture perspective, a net-positive rate of return-on-investment
overall in aggregate is only possible in whole of society if that society or global civilization
continued to grow as a whole... Continued global growth is only possible if we are able to consume
more and more resources as well as have increasingly abundant access to usable energy of
EROEI density sufficient to power modern global civilization and it's continued upwards growth.


Given that our modern civilization and globalized economy/world is predominantly powered by
fossil fuels and hydrocarbons as the main source of energy, and given the fact that we enjoy and
are indeed direct recipients of this "multiplier of work/productivity/wealth" enabled by the use of (still
relatively) cheap and abundant oil, natural gas, coal, etc it stands to reason that as we approach
the final global limits to energy consumption growth, so will our aggregate economies contract... by
most estimates global production of conventional oil peaked back in 2019, and there is no turning
back...
Polybius
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 95
Joined: Tue 13 Apr 2021, 10:37:51
Location: Arlington/Dallas

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Polybius » Sun 12 Sep 2021, 22:12:13

Given that globally economies will shrink as a whole, given that our total access to energy both in
terms of quantity of energy and the quality of remaining energy will continue to steadily decline
over time, and since clearly it has been established that modern global wealth is entirely
dependent upon its access to energy; it is inevitable to assume anything else other than the reality
that as the aggregate amount of real energy, resources and wealth on our planet falls off a cliff and
we enter the long decline/collapse that we will have a massive surplus of the "symbolic human
construct" that we have used to "count up, tally, measure, represent and account for energy,
resources, wealth, etc out there in the world." and therefore with a bunch of existing money no
longer able to find/pair/bind with their corresponding resource/wealth counterparts out there in the
‘real world’, we have a situation of hyperinflation whereby all currencies and monies will lose the
vast majority of their currently perceived value and purchasing power... those that get out fast and
convert to real hard assets and tangible resources first will be much better off than those left
holding fiat currency or digital cryptocoins...but in truth almost none will be spared as the current
situation is more akin to the Earth being one giant 3-D "Easter Island" in space and we have used
up all the high density ‘free energy’ that accumulated over the course of billions of years in a
comparative blink of an eye (roughly 150 years since the Industrial revolution and most of it on the
backend of the last four decades)


Wealth creation is actually the extraction, conversion and consumption of energy. All other forms of
wealth are merely derivatives that are layered on top of and powered directly or indirectly by the
underlining energy infrastructure of society/civilization. For billions of years, through a process of
photosynthesis and thanks to the natural energy from our closest star the sun, our planet has
steadily built up a massive reserve of energy, mainly in the form of hydrocarbons underneath the
ground. And yet in less than 150 years since the industrial revolution began, we have globally
already consumed more than half of all available hydrocarbons and nearly all of the sweet crude,
high density EROEI, and other easy-to-extract low-hanging-fruit energy sources on earth. The
implications are indeed foreboding.


Modern civilization is built upon both the expectation and the requirement of perpetual infinite
growth in order to be sustained, and its tenet is one of always borrowing from the expectation of
future growth to use as collateral to pay for the present/current debts and expenses... essentially it
is the most massive high level Ponzi Pyramid scheme of the ultimate form of kicking the can down
the road that humanity has ever conjured up or invented... From fiat currency to fractional reserve
banking systems to petrodollar hegemony and quantitative easing, etc it is simply the way we have
structured our society and our financial systems by assuming that we will always grow ourselves
out of debt and using the assumption of tomorrow’s growth as collateral for today’s level of
expenditures. The issue is modern society and thus growth as we know it to be, are both entirely
predicated upon the prerequisite ability to continue to extract, process, convert and consume
energy at increasingly faster and faster rates. Indeed, our entire global civilization is wholly
dependent upon the sort of specialization-of-skill, just-in-time logistics, and economics-of-scale that
only a massive interconnected global population sustained by very high-density net-energy
sources (hydrocarbons) could provide.
Polybius
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 95
Joined: Tue 13 Apr 2021, 10:37:51
Location: Arlington/Dallas

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 12 Sep 2021, 22:56:02


those that get out fast and
convert to real hard assets and tangible resources first will be much better off than those left
holding fiat currency or digital cryptocoins


Lots to wade through in those posts. This particular bit of rant caught my eye and is very relevant to my immediate situation.

We are retired and have a 3 legged stool of income.
Social security
Retirement investments
A small rental property

This rental property has been our “ tangible resource” part of the investment scheme. The problem is twofold; it is NOT passive and there seems to be a housing bubble developing.

We are seriously considering selling the rental because it requires too much hands on management. And we don’t want to be tied into center city Philadelphia. But also it is a seller market, who knows when this housing bubble may break. At 70 years of age it makes no sense to try to ride out a down market. We bought in a slump 30 years and have done well with appreciation. Time to cash out.

But, where to put the money that will both be safe and return a decent profit??? That is the question.

I like the idea of “tangible assets” but finding some that throw off some income seems a bit tricky.

It is a “hood problem” to have, but a problem none the less.

It is one thing to discuss these matters in theory, but when it comes to the hard reality of actual commitments and decisions and investments it is, to me, very foggy.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 16388
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 14 Sep 2021, 19:27:57

The Acronym is TINA (There- Is -No- Alternative) meaning nothing returns as well as the stock market or it's indexes. Gold And silver are flat, bonds yield less then inflation and Real estate has the problems you are well aware of.
You might consider a four way even split between the DOW ,the S&P, the NASDAQ, index funds and physical gold if you have a secure place to store it at reasonable fees.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12293
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 16 Sep 2021, 07:33:17

VT,
Thats sort of where I keep coming to. Poking around at REITS. No place to store physical gold, which in the past had been confiscated.

Yet, we are aware that if there is a serious problem most people will be hurting worse than us. An ebbing tide lowers all ships, we have a bit bigger than average ship. Some solace in that.

Fun, fun, fun.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 16388
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 16 Sep 2021, 17:52:22

Newfie wrote:
But, where to put the money that will both be safe and return a decent profit??? That is the question.

I like the idea of “tangible assets” but finding some that throw off some income seems a bit tricky.



In 2004 it was a no brainer for me. Gold and silver. Both of which have appreciated over 500% in less than two decades. I can't think of another time tested investment that has done that? A week ago I bought a lot more silver, something I should have done 2 or 3 years ago but that's ok, there is no slacking in demand for the metal both from industry and private investors.

Of course the average person has to get over their distrust of it first. A distrust born of media slander for the most part. Posters on forums like this told me I was an idiot in 2005 and they will probably say so again now but I couldn't care less what people think, my assets have gone up hugely, much more than inflation, and they are completely Liquid and also "Off the books".
theluckycountry
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 131
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 16 Sep 2021, 17:57:18

Newfie wrote:VT,
Thats sort of where I keep coming to. Poking around at REITS. No place to store physical gold, which in the past had been confiscated.


Like a gun can be confiscated if you leave it lying around at the wrong times. BLM protests, Katrina.
The gold confiscation back 90 years ago is now clouded in myth but if you research it you will find that it was only massive hoards in safe deposit boxes that got taken, that and the large stashes of trembling citizens. You were legally allowed to hold up to ten ounces, but 10 or 200, whose to know when it's buried in a backyard.
theluckycountry
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 131
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 16 Sep 2021, 18:58:16

Other then wedding rings and a few bits of other jewelry I own no gold. If you bought and held it ten years ago you have gained nothing per ounce and even the low inflation during that period has eaten away at you investment.
I like low cost broad market index funds that will only go down if the whole country ends up in the dumpster. Currently I own FNILX and ONEQ. FNILX tracts the whole market and is up for me 17% over the last eight months. ONEQ tracks the NASDAQ and is up 11.3% over the last seven months.
They will not win every month or every year but they are a good bet to win every decade.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12293
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 16 Sep 2021, 20:25:00

Gold isn’t an investment, it’s wealth
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6761
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 16 Sep 2021, 21:20:59

True but wealth left idle will get eaten up by inflation and holding costs.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12293
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 17 Sep 2021, 02:22:52

vtsnowedin wrote: If you bought and held it ten years ago you have gained nothing per ounce and even the low inflation during that period has eaten away at you investment.


That's an example of what we call cherry picking. I could say the same about the Dow, if you bought it in 2000 and held it for 10 years you gained nothing and the rampant inflation over that period ate away at your investment. Gold on the other hand appreciated nearly 400%, negating any need for dividends.

The current US stock prices are a reflection of the desperation of investors around the world which have been pouring money in for well over a decade, seeking some return since their own markets have languished, the nikkei, the DAX etc. Australian pension funds even contribute, 25% of all savings go there. The value of the stock markets there is a complete joke at this point and analysts stopped scratching their heads years ago.

When it blows up again gold will continue to shine and shine brighter, but the untold millions of people with their life savings in paper will be in tears like in back in 2000.
theluckycountry
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 131
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 17 Sep 2021, 08:18:17

While the ten year period you cherry pick was indeed a flat spot for the DOW look ten years before to now to see the long term trend.
Gold sitting in a vault does no work and returns no ongoing profits and only goes up in price when the world is in a panic. Funny thing is if things really went to pot all the gold bugs would find that they can't eat gold and things like food and ammunition would become the only currency there was any demand for.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12293
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 17 Sep 2021, 11:55:24

Actually 22LRHP or 2-3/4” #6 make a lot of sense because they are fungible and divisible into small easily carried quantities. You can buy a Snickers bar with either. :-D
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 16388
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 17 Sep 2021, 20:44:44

Newfie wrote:Actually 22LRHP or 2-3/4” #6 make a lot of sense because they are fungible and divisible into small easily carried quantities. You can buy a Snickers bar with either. :-D
Well that is a far stretch and a SHTF projection but stranger things have happened.
I bought 100 22LRs today for the ridiculous price of $11.00 and a box of 300 Win mag for $60.00 and a pound of powder for the Win mag reloads. Total plus tax topped $100.00.
But if I had to I could get by for the rest of my life with what I now have on hand.
The 300 Win Mag is a new purchase so I needed to buy the reloading dies and enough loaded ammo to give me a working lot of cases to reload. Did not need that gun but it is very VERY nice and I am enjoying finding out what it is capable of.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12293
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 19 Sep 2021, 11:00:31

They say older people should get into bonds. Government bonds of most kinds are safer than corporate bonds, usually. If that isn't diversified enough, some stocks are safer. If I remember correctly, the beta of a stock is a measure that refers to how volatile that stock is, in comparison to the rest of the market. I should think you can add to a set of safer bonds with some less volatile stocks that also offer dividends that look good to you.

Diversification is the best way to protect yourself, but you are also in a position where you don't want to lose everything. Personally, I am taking more risk. I am into the market. I am not getting into bonds, even though I will be 60 in a few years. I think there are trends at work in the world that are at least as safe as some of the less risky stocks to back with my risk taking. EV's will change so many things about how people relate to each other. It looks like there will be opportunity everywhere. I am trying to avoid the equivalent of the pet rock in all this, which came and went. Look at the newest one to shake their sexy electric pickup truck at you. It can go how many miles on a charge? The world of tomorrow is probably out there today, and it probably has a certain return if I get in at the right price.

Another thing that I am doing is that I am not trying to time the market. When a stock I am accumulating goes up, I cut back and start to ask myself if it has achieved a new level concerning which there will be whole new buying targets. I don't sell, hoping that the stock will go down and I can buy more shares with the same money. I was talking to a guy who is a little older than me the other day. He does that. I think that is a good way for the market to run on up and leave me behind, holding the bag the stocks were supposed to go into. Instead, if I want to try and reap some profit as I go, I think I need to add more shares to my positions than I will conceivably need later. Then, I can sell the excess over that whenever it looks like a particular stock has peaked in some way. That way, I could take profits from time to time, when market timing actually worked. The rest of the time, I could lose gracefully.

The only thing I am not certain of is how to view those sold shares in relation to the whole, how that will effect my average cost per share. I will have to do any profit taking with that in mind too, and taxes. It's risk management all the way around, isn't it? And, as I am only too aware, the EV thesis could get rolled up into something else. I own some things outside of the EV thing, you know. Some stuff is sort of contrarian, like how I buy now for an eventual rise in interest rates. I originally thought that would come about this year. Now, I think the Fed's bond buying program will have been enough to forestall that for a while.
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3310
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Stopped at the border.

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 19 Sep 2021, 12:12:44

vtsnowedin wrote:While the ten year period you cherry pick was indeed a flat spot for the DOW look ten years before to now to see the long term trend.


We could discuss these periods back and forward because there are many for each asset, so I will make it simple. Every time paper under-performs, Gold performs well. From 2012 to 2020 gold was flat and the dow was on it's way up. What you have to ask yourself now is, what will the next 10 years bring? Massive increases in the paper markets? If you believe that than keep away from gold. If you don't believe that, then now is a good buying opportunity, especially for silver which lags gold and has no fear premium attached to it.
theluckycountry
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 131
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 19 Sep 2021, 12:40:07

evilgenius wrote:They say older people should get into bonds. .

Yes that has been standard advice for decades but a point that was brought to my attention is that Social security and any other government pension can be considered a substitute for part or all of retired persons Bond portfolio. As I have both social security and a state government pension I need zero bonds especially at today's low rates combined with growing inflation.
I do have 20% of my investments in a 401K split between the two index funds I have mentioned. That is the low risk part of my investing.
The rest I have put into individual stocks I have chosen, ever hopeful of beating the market average but knowing the odds are against me long term. It would be wise to shift more of my money from those stocks into those index funds but that is boring and I do enjoy the game . My source of new cash is my beer money budget so if I lost it all I would just have to give up drinking which would please my wife and my doctor.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12293
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 19 Sep 2021, 13:01:25

theluckycountry wrote: What you have to ask yourself now is, what will the next 10 years bring? Massive increases in the paper markets? .

I expect a period of high inflation that will not last long as the people causing it will not be in power long. Massive increases in stock prices? No not for ten years. What I do expect barring a major war is a steady increase in profits and dividends after adjusting for inflation that pretty much tracks the growth in GDP.
The price of gold is set by speculators and is a cumulative grope think not based on any real market demand. It like crypto currencies could drop by half or more anytime sentiment changed. I have seen this happen in the past. The stock market also has a speculation factor that has most stocks over priced well above their base fundamental book value. One estimate is that speculation value is a third of the current price but if the speculators all panicked and cashed out there would still be that real two thirds of the price backed by assets and earning potential.
I do love stocks that have a P/E less then 10 and pay a 3.5% dividend or higher.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12293
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby adonis » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 20:54:31

I dont believe there will be a financial meltdown anytime soon the powers that be have announced to the governments the arrival of the great reset which now looks like it will come to fruition house prices will continue their upward tragectory along with gold and silver cryptos will probably get banned in the longrun the stockmarket will be propped up by infinite QE think 35000 is high wait till it hits 100000.
adonis
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 4
Joined: Thu 09 Sep 2021, 19:59:11

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 22:12:50

adonis wrote:I dont believe there will be a financial meltdown anytime soon the powers that be have announced to the governments the arrival of the great reset which now looks like it will come to fruition house prices will continue their upward tragectory along with gold and silver cryptos will probably get banned in the longrun the stockmarket will be propped up by infinite QE think 35000 is high wait till it hits 100000.


There is this thing, called a period, it is used to end sentences? You might have heard of them?

Anyway, you are speculating on some mighty good news for those of us who jumped into the market pretty hard after the 2008 crash, so happy days ahead sounds like a condensed version of your endless sentence?
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 6651
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests