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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 10 Sep 2021, 08:26:10

vtsnowedin wrote:Luckycountery : Again the thing that bothers me are all the things you know for sure that just ain't so!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_S ... y_2017.svg


S&P, like all such rating agencies, derive their income by selling product to the very people and institutions they report on. In other words they are wholly captured institutions. They are like the Newspapers that always report great news about Real Estate prices and their midsection has a huge lift out on real estate sales. How many of those companies would advertise with a paper that wasn't singing the praises of Buy Buy Buy?

The markets move up of confidence, down on fear. S&P has to paint a good picture, it has no choice if it wants to be part of the system.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 10 Sep 2021, 09:59:49

Yet the fact remains that 44 out of 50 states are solvent and can pay their bills.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 10 Sep 2021, 18:15:52

theluckycountry wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Luckycountery : Again the thing that bothers me are all the things you know for sure that just ain't so!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_S ... y_2017.svg


S&P, like all such rating agencies, derive their income by selling product to the very people and institutions they report on. In other words they are wholly captured institutions. They are like the Newspapers that always report great news about Real Estate prices and their midsection has a huge lift out on real estate sales. How many of those companies would advertise with a paper that wasn't singing the praises of Buy Buy Buy?

The markets move up of confidence, down on fear. S&P has to paint a good picture, it has no choice if it wants to be part of the system.

Do you use objective data, or just personal opinions, sans ANY references, much less credible references, for such claims?

I'll agree that the markets move down on fear and up on confidence, and also that in the short term, fear is stronger than confidence. OTOH, do you have ANY reliable EVIDENCE that the S&P is solidly "paid for", vs. reporting the overall news?

In my world, whenever I check headlines, despite short term doomer cherry picking from the likes of, say, Armageddon (who has been wrong for 15 years), they tend to be rather MIXED, re good and bad news.

At the risk of using common sense as a sanity check on cornies vs. fast crash doomers.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 11 Sep 2021, 09:37:59

Plantagenet wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:
evilgenius wrote: In my portfolio, I am going after electrical infrastructure plays related to EV's.

It's a smart play,....


Maybe.

But building infrastructure is a 19th century kind of industry. Its not extremely profitable like software and its not an innovative high tech business like Apple or Moderna.

Building physical things is old school.

Its labor and material intensive.

The margins tend to be low....and that means the profits tend to be low.

These stocks belong to manufacturing and construction sector, and lots of different companies can do the job. The companies have to fight for the lowest bid on any project.

And its very cyclical. These stocks might do good for a year, and then the Rs take over Congress the spigot gets turned off and the building stops and the stocks crash.

So lets look at the DATA and see what the past performance of infrastructure stocks has been....

And what do we find?????

DIG IT, ---when you look at the data on these stocks, they have been about the WORST performing stocks in the market for years now.

Over the last 10 years the infrastructure sector is DOWN 10%. Over the same time period AMAZON has gone UP 1588%.

p-us-preferred-infrastructure-stock-index

The infrastructure stocks have been absolutely terrible. You couldn't do much worse over the last 10 years.

Image
The infrastructure sector has gone DOWN 10% over the last 10 years.....it just hasn't been a good investment

Cheers!

Buy low. Sell high. This is when I cue the line from the movie The Graduate, about plastic. Maybe that's just irony because it's one more dream in a whole pipeline of dreams? Maybe it's meant to be taken more at face value?

There is something about always being afraid of everything that dooms the one who fears to inaction. It's up to you what you do with that. You can tell yourself a story, retelling the moral of how right you were to do nothing, or you can change your mind. What you do kind of depends upon what is happening. I am probably early, if I am right at all. If I am right, I get to learn. I am bound to make some wrong decisions trying to build positions and all of that. If I am wrong your laughter would be best placed, then. Just think of how funny that would be.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 11 Sep 2021, 10:39:18

Outcast_Searcher "
I'll agree that the markets move down on fear and up on confidence, and also that in the short term, fear is stronger than confidence. OTOH, do you have ANY reliable EVIDENCE that the S&P is solidly "paid for", vs. reporting the overall news?

Yes the markets do move down on fear like the start of Covid last year but the overall trend is up based on the usual growth in corporate profits and GDP. A plot of any of the markets going back fifty years or more is a long line rising up to the right with time with just a few down tics from disasters or bubbles popping.
In April 1982 the Dow closed at 2,284. Yesterday it closed at 34,607.
If an investor has the discipline and patience he can wait out any downturn in the market and recover all losses in a relatively short time while the more nervous will sell out at a loss then miss the bottom and not get back in,if at all ,until the market is well above where the downturn started losing money with both transactions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 11 Sep 2021, 19:58:52

The Ds are proposing a new tax credit for people buying an EV.

However, the Ds plan is designed to help mainly unionized auto makers (i.e. the big 3) and it discriminates against non-union EV makers.

toyota-says-it-will-fight-us-house-electric-vehicle-tax-plan-2021-09-11

Toyota has protested strongly against the Ds plan because their EVs won't get the full benefit.

Image
Same thing with Tesla....Tesla auto plants aren't unionized so Tesla EVs won't be eligible for the full tax credit under the new D plan.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 12 Sep 2021, 02:00:48

Plantagenet wrote:The infrastructure sector has gone DOWN 10% over the last 10 years.....it just hasn't been a good investment

And yet, past performance is no guarantee (or indicator) of future results.

And cherry picking Amazon doesn't mean all tech stocks have been great investments either.

Iomega went bankrupt. Enron went bankrupt. Blackberry looked great until rather suddenly it was a disaster.

QQQ has done well over time, but so has SPY, re the market overall has done very well over time.

But good luck picking the best or worst stock(s) apriori.

There's a reason the clowns running active stock mutual funds generally UNDERperform simple efficient passive index funds in similar market segments.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 12 Sep 2021, 02:05:57

vtsnowedin wrote:Outcast_Searcher "
I'll agree that the markets move down on fear and up on confidence, and also that in the short term, fear is stronger than confidence. OTOH, do you have ANY reliable EVIDENCE that the S&P is solidly "paid for", vs. reporting the overall news?

Yes the markets do move down on fear like the start of Covid last year but the overall trend is up based on the usual growth in corporate profits and GDP. A plot of any of the markets going back fifty years or more is a long line rising up to the right with time with just a few down tics from disasters or bubbles popping.
In April 1982 the Dow closed at 2,284. Yesterday it closed at 34,607.
If an investor has the discipline and patience he can wait out any downturn in the market and recover all losses in a relatively short time while the more nervous will sell out at a loss then miss the bottom and not get back in,if at all ,until the market is well above where the downturn started losing money with both transactions.

Clearly. That's how my investment success came to be. DCA for four decades and always reinvest the dividends, capital gains, etc. (NOT by picking stock X, because I have picked great ones and terrible ones, as most everyone does.)

Graduating from college in mid '81, I got lucky and started steadily investing in stocks in the summer of '82. Can't get a better break than that re timing. And at the time it seemed scary as hell given how the economy had been for a decade, but fortunately I figured a LOT of bad news was already baked into prices. Psychologically, it's easier to stick with an investment plan once you're well ahead, even during crashes.

My comment to Lucky re the S&P was re his conspiracy theory claim re Standard and Poors corporation falsely reporting things -- not re the stock market being a good thing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Sep 2021, 13:32:30

Outcast_Searcher wrote:My comment to Lucky re the S&P was re his conspiracy theory claim re Standard and Poors corporation falsely reporting things -- not re the stock market being a good thing.

Well Lucky does have a point when you look back at all the high ratings S&P gave mortgage backed security bundles before that collapse. That doesn't mean the market is all phony or on the verge of collapse but it does tell you to not swallow any of these rating firms opinions hook line and sinker.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 14 Sep 2021, 23:04:10

Another Day, another Chevy Bolt undergoes spontaneous combustion. This time the EV in question was just sitting in the Garage and then it went Ka-Boom! Snap! Crackle! Pop! Sizzle!

chevrolet-bolt-ev-fire-georgia

Maybe GM should recall the Chevy Bolts for a third time........

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 16 Sep 2021, 10:26:38

vtsnowedin wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:My comment to Lucky re the S&P was re his conspiracy theory claim re Standard and Poors corporation falsely reporting things -- not re the stock market being a good thing.

Well Lucky does have a point when you look back at all the high ratings S&P gave mortgage backed security bundles before that collapse. That doesn't mean the market is all phony or on the verge of collapse but it does tell you to not swallow any of these rating firms opinions hook line and sinker.

No one with a brain ever claimed outfits that make economic forecasts were consistently right. I certainly never have, as their input isn't good enough to reliably trade profitably on. And that's virtually ALL economic forecasting outfits, private and government. Forecasting the future is really really hard.

That does NOT make them some kind of giant conspiracy theory, no matter how hard the usual suspects flap their arms and lips claiming it is.

Though not consistently right, their track record overall is a HELL of a lot better than the typical arm waving, consistently wrong, perma-doomers and especially the constant insta-doomers. Overall, they're pretty "meh", over time, on average, vs. very close to a big fat zero for the usual doomer suspects.

I'm NOT saying "meh" is impressive, but facts are facts and we're on the internet where claims can be verified.

To state the obvious, an incorrect forecast is NOT deliberate "false reporting".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 16 Sep 2021, 19:20:32

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:My comment to Lucky re the S&P was re his conspiracy theory claim re Standard and Poors corporation falsely reporting things -- not re the stock market being a good thing.

Well Lucky does have a point when you look back at all the high ratings S&P gave mortgage backed security bundles before that collapse. That doesn't mean the market is all phony or on the verge of collapse but it does tell you to not swallow any of these rating firms opinions hook line and sinker.

No one with a brain ever claimed outfits that make economic forecasts were consistently right. I certainly never have, as their input isn't good enough to reliably trade profitably on. And that's virtually ALL economic forecasting outfits, private and government. Forecasting the future is really really hard.

That does NOT make them some kind of giant conspiracy theory, no matter how hard the usual suspects flap their arms and lips claiming it is.

Though not consistently right, their track record overall is a HELL of a lot better than the typical arm waving, consistently wrong, perma-doomers and especially the constant insta-doomers. Overall, they're pretty "meh", over time, on average, vs. very close to a big fat zero for the usual doomer suspects.

I'm NOT saying "meh" is impressive, but facts are facts and we're on the internet where claims can be verified.

To state the obvious, an incorrect forecast is NOT deliberate "false reporting".

You should read some of Bogel's Little book of common sense investing.
https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Comm ... 1119404509
In there he asserts that over time most if not all investment advisors regress to the mean over time and do not even produce a return equal to the index averages. The Cathy Woods of last year will in a few years guess wrong and do less then average more then balancing out their first flash in the pan.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 17 Sep 2021, 12:29:22

vtsnowedin wrote:You should read some of Bogel's Little book of common sense investing.
https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Comm ... 1119404509
In there he asserts that over time most if not all investment advisors regress to the mean over time and do not even produce a return equal to the index averages. The Cathy Woods of last year will in a few years guess wrong and do less then average more then balancing out their first flash in the pan.

I've read that book, and lots of books on index investing, etc, over the decades.

For nearly 40 years now, I've been about a 90% Bogle style investor. I have a LOT (for me) in broad Vanguard Index funds which I dollar cost averaged into from my salary over about 25 years, and reinvest the dividends. I have literally never traded them. Same thing with my precious metals, my cash (in high quality money market funds or "high yield" savings accounts. Just simple asset allocation and letting things sit and work as time passes.

OTOH, I do enjoy actively trading with options, and have done that for nearly 40 years as well. It gives my mind exercise, motivates me to keep up with business and financial news and tech trends, and it's fun. I know all about regression to the mean, and over time, I freely admit (unlike most people on the internet) that my returns on the active trading have been so close to the overall averages of what I'm trading that if I didn't enjoy the mental challenge, it wouldn't be worth the time and effort spent.

Doing different things also helps with varying types of economies. Collecting option premium (for declining theta) over time and dividends works quite well if the market is quiet. When it's not, as long as I want to buy or sell the stocks I'm selling those options against anyway (at better than current prices), it certainly can't hurt.

Over the decades, as I've gotten more patient, more consistent, and more persistent, I've gotten to be a better trader. With only "messing with" 10% of my funds total, I'm fearless and don't get scared out at the bottom or too greedy at the top. Buying low and selling high is fun too.

I think people should educate themselves so they understand the risks AND rewards of what they do, and then do what they want. And not be afraid or too stubborn to admit mistakes, and learn from them.

Trust me, 99% of my returns over the years are from being "smart" enough to persistently save, invest, diversify, and live frugally. I owe all that wisdom to a great example set day after day, year after year, by two frugal depression era parents. Sometimes it's far better to be lucky than smart.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 17 Sep 2021, 18:00:52

I hear you on all of that. My comfortable position comes from being out of debt (except having payments on a car I owe less on then it would bring) and having worked through the rules on a retirement system that rewards long term service. Previous ventures into the stock market have been a mixed bag (we will not discuss Palm) but I now think I have a handle on the small amount of my net worth I have invested.
As the retirement checks and Social Security pay the bills I am free to play with any free cash. Those stimulus checks and a couple of other windfalls came in handy.
10 percent speculation is probably wise but if you already have the other bases covered a higher percentage for stock picking (AKA) gambling is not out of line.
Would your world end if you lost it all? If the answer is no have at it.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 17 Sep 2021, 23:20:08

NHTSA opens another fire safety investigation of TESLA EVs after a crash in Florida started a TESLA battery fire that killed two people.

tesla-crash-in-florida-draws-second-fire-safety-probe-this-year

After GM recalled every single BOLT over battery and fire safety concerns, the spotlight is now on Tesla.

The TESLA crash in Texas killed two people when the battery burst into flame, and now two more people have died after a similar TESLA crash in Florida. The NHTSA may be concerned that a car that has a distressing tendency to burst into flames after a crash isn't safe.

Image
Survived the crash but died in the battery fire?

Cheers!
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 18 Sep 2021, 12:39:55

Battery fires are certainly a problem that needs to be solved. I expect it will be but whether it will take months or a year or two is beyond my crystal balls transistor power.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 18 Sep 2021, 17:21:46

vtsnowedin wrote:Would your world end if you lost it all? If the answer is no have at it.

Understanding the basics of math, I'm basically a coward at heart. (Unlike most, I freely admit it). If 10% short term (active) trading meant I might lose it all, I wouldn't do it. It's not even close.

If I have to, and I wouldn't like it, I COULD stop giving meaningful money annually to relatives and charities, if I needed to do so to survive, like pay medical bills or caregiver bills.

Whether I WOULD is another question (as quality of life is VERY important to me re principle of the thing), but I think I hopefully would accept death if things get really bad, vs. violating my principles to suffer for longer.

Of course, I can't guarantee it, being only human and all. And again, unlike most, I'll freely admit it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 18 Sep 2021, 19:42:13

evilgenius wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:
evilgenius wrote: In my portfolio, I am going after electrical infrastructure plays related to EV's.

It's a smart play,....


Maybe.

But building infrastructure is a 19th century kind of industry. Its not extremely profitable like software and its not an innovative high tech business like Apple or Moderna.

Building physical things is old school.


True true, analysis correct, but Plantagenet was talking about making money of the stock market, not building anything. There is a big difference between stocks and reality, they are completely disconnected now.

Look at Testla, it's a joke! It's cars are rubbish compared to the Euro offerings and there are no savings to be gleaned driving one if you deduct the price difference between it and a similarly constructed ICE car, then spend that money on gasoline. This is because the build quality is shonky. People buy them to be cool, to be green, and other people invest in the company because they believe it has a bright future.

Here is the 2012, the origonal, it looks like something from the 1990's

Image


And the 2020 variant, almost identical. Zero innovation going on there, in looks at least.

Image

Tesla is going nowhere but that doesn't stop this...
Dec 14, 2020Tesla's market cap has increased by more than $500 billion in 2020, and is now worth as much as the combined market cap of the nine largest car companies globally.

It's a joke. A joke that has made people a lot of money.

Can Tesla pay its debt? https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto- ... -its-debt/
This question may not be relevant because Tesla can always go back to the capital market to raise more funds either through debts or equity even if it doesn’t have the money to pay off existing debt.


And that EG, is how the world works now.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 18 Sep 2021, 19:53:40

vtsnowedin wrote:Yet the fact remains that 44 out of 50 states are solvent and can pay their bills.

So you have six declared failed states, that's nothing to brag about in itself. And that by modern accounting practices. The rest are probably no better and in reality technically bankrupt by older measures. It's like your unemployment statistics, the current rate there is 5.2% but no one with a brain believes that. If they measured them the way they did in 1933 you have nearly double that, or worse. https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the- ... te-3306198

Here in this forum we are about sifting the reality from the BS that the media constantly pumps out to convince us the world is fine. Quoting rubbish statistics manufactured by government doesn't aid this process.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 18 Sep 2021, 19:55:38

theluckycountry wrote:Look at Testla, it's a joke! It's cars are rubbish compared to the Euro offerings and there are no savings to be gleaned driving one if you deduct the price difference between it and a similarly constructed ICE car, then spend that money on gasoline. This is because the build quality is shonky. People buy them to be cool, to be green, and other people invest in the company because they believe it has a bright future.

Here is the 2012, the origonal, it looks like something from the 1990's

Image


And the 2020 variant, almost identical. Zero innovation going on there, in looks at least.

Image

Tesla is going nowhere but that doesn't stop this...
Dec 14, 2020Tesla's market cap has increased by more than $500 billion in 2020, and is now worth as much as the combined market cap of the nine largest car companies globally.

It's a joke. A joke that has made people a lot of money.

Can Tesla pay its debt? https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto- ... -its-debt/
This question may not be relevant because Tesla can always go back to the capital market to raise more funds either through debts or equity even if it doesn’t have the money to pay off existing debt.


And that EG, is how the world works now.


Lucky is 100% right here.

Tesla is way overvalued, and competition from Chinese and European EV makers is coming and if Tesla can't compete then Teslas stock is going to crash.

Even Cathy Wood at ARK ETFs, who used to be Tesla's biggest fan on Wall Street, has been selling off her shares of Tesla.

cathie-wood-keeps-selling-tesla-unloading-62-million-shares

So the Wall Street pros are selling out of Tesla......any individual investors still holding Tesla stock should be aware it is very very risky, IMHO.

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