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THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Sat 10 Apr 2021, 15:39:25

EU-rope needs to grow a brain and rather quick. Russia currently has 63.4 billion cubic meters per year of LNG export capacity which will increase to over 190 bcm per year by 2035. At the same time Russia has already built a 62 bcm/year pipeline to China and is building another to be completed in a couple of years. So Russia will be able to shift all of its EU exports to the east. In addition, it will get more money for this gas than from EU ingrates and haters.

The attempt by Washington to force Russia to ship over 50 bcm/year through Banderastan is pathetic. The only reason the EU is getting enough Russian gas now is because Russia is being reasonable. It is time to stop being reasonable with haters and enemies. Let the EU and its American masters deal with the 150 bcm/year gas supply gap. It will be fun to watch as every last bit of LNG from Qatar is routed to the EU and the EU buys Russian LNG. Beggars, especially hate-filled, resentful and violent ones can't be choosers.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Tue 13 Apr 2021, 11:30:01

"Western insistence on Russia paying Ukraine rent to use old Soviet-era gas pipelines drives Moscow away from EU & towards China"
read://https_www.rt.com/?url=https%3A%2 ... e-china%2F

"Russia is rapidly becoming less reliant on the rest of Europe, which has profound implications. Cancelling Nord Stream 2 will not make Russia reliant on using Ukraine as a transit state, rather it will make Russia diversify further away from Europe as a consumer. Germany also recognises that maintaining Nord Stream 2 is imperative to maintain a bridge to Russia and prevent the largest, and most powerful, European state aligning itself even closer with China.

The US now sanctions Germany and other European countries for cooperating with the construction of Nord Stream 2, with the reasoning that Washington is protecting Germany and Europe from reliance on Russia.

However, even the circus around the Western-backed opposition figure Alexey Navalny did not culminate in the cancellation of Nord Stream 2, although the continued mid-construction obstruction of the pipeline has already made Moscow view the EU Europeans as unreliable partners, and Moscow is unlikely to agree to another pipeline project to an EU state."

An interesting point, and one I agree with. Whether the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is completed or not, Russia is extremely unlikely to build new pipelines to Europe in the future.

And, once the current transit contract with Ukraine expires in 2024, Russia will renegotiate on its terms or stop using Ukraine as a transit nation for its natural gas. Russia can now send its gas East, West, North, and South, all over the world, both through pipelines and shipped as LNG. In a couple of years Russia won't need Europe for anything at all.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Tue 27 Apr 2021, 09:01:08

The big plan of Washington to force Russia to subsidize the Banderite Nazis in Kiev is flopping. The smug, ignorant and chauvinistic clowns in Washington never anticipated that Russia could undertake the massive new pipeline projects in the east and the deployment of LNG export capacity of such a scale and short time frame. As with the import substitution in the wake of the 2014 sanctions, these western deciders are totally detached from the reality and wallow in their supremacist fantasies.

Nope, Washington is going to have to feed its quislings in Kiev from its own pocket. Funny how it is so painful for the country that prints dollars by the trillion to throw a few billion of them as crumbs to its pets.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 28 Apr 2021, 11:38:33

"All of LNG from Russia’s Arctic for next 20 years sold in advance – Novatek"
https://www.rt.com/business/522332-russ ... greements/

"Russia’s energy giant Novatek said on Wednesday it has inked 20-year agreements with the shareholders of its Arctic LNG 2 project on the sale and purchase of the entire volume of liquified natural gas.
The LNG sales from the plant’s first liquefaction train are planned to commence in 2023, according to the company.

The agreements “provide for LNG supplies from Arctic LNG 2 on FOB Murmansk and FOB Kamchatka basis with pricing formulas linked to international oil and gas benchmarks. The LNG offtake volumes are set in proportion to the respective participants' ownership stakes in the project,” Novatek said.

The company’s chairman of the management board, Leonid Mikhelson, said that “The long-term offtake agreements between Arctic LNG 2 and its participants ensure the future revenue stream from LNG sales and de-risks the project. This represents one of the most important milestones in attracting the project’s external financing that will be completed in 2021.”

Mikhelson said earlier that the Arctic LNG 2 plant is 39% complete and will be launched as planned.

Arctic LNG 2 envisages constructing three LNG liquefaction trains of 6.6 million tons per annum each, as well as cumulative gas condensate production capacity of 1.6 million tons per annum. The total LNG capacity of the three liquefaction trains will be 19.8 million tons. The first train of Arctic LNG 2 is 53% ready and is scheduled to start operations in two years.

Novatek owns the majority stake (60%) in the project, with minority stakes held by foreign companies. The list of foreign investors includes French oil and gas company Total (10%), Chinese firms CNPC (10%) and CNOOC (10%), and the Japanese consortium of Mitsui and JOGMEC (10%).

The project utilizes an innovative construction concept using gravity-based structure platforms to reduce overall capital cost and minimize the project’s environmental footprint in the Arctic zone of Russia, according to Novatek."

Cha ching!
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 03 May 2021, 13:50:55

Great update Juan.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Tue 11 May 2021, 00:00:55

"Mediterranean pipe dream founders on global gas glut"
https://asiatimes.com/2021/03/mediterra ... -gas-glut/

"In the Eastern Mediterranean, falling prices and shrinking demand threaten to upend the region’s most ambitious-ever natural gas sector project.

The US$7 billion East Med Gas Pipeline (EMGP) – lauded by politicians from Tel Aviv to Athens and Nicosia to Cairo – was designed to send gas from Cypriot, Israeli and Egyptian offshore fields to Europe via a 1,900-kilometer link to Greece.

Yet, “I just don’t see how it’s ever going to happen,” Dr. Charles Elinas, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a regional energy expert, told Asia Times. “Simply put, there’s just too much gas in the world.”"

Glut, glut, glut! Little wonder coal production has suffered, probably temporary, setbacks for years.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Wed 12 May 2021, 09:21:39

Those excuses are BS the price tag is chump change. If Russian natural gas is such an existential threat to the EU, then this pipeline would have been built regardless of any typical variation of natural gas prices. After all, we had the Nabucco project that was supposed to send gas from the Caspian Sea basin (primarily Turkmenistan) to the EU and bypassing the ebil Rosshians. That flopped because Turkmenistan didn't have the expected reserves and over-allocated its exports to China. This eastern Med pipeline looks to be flopping for the same reason. Lots of hype over gas reserves that are nothing to write home about.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Ayoob » Sat 26 Jun 2021, 17:57:15

On a more personal note, I'm getting ready to install a vehicle CNG pump at my house, and install CNG fuel tanks in my vehicles. I'm hoping to get it all done by the end of the summer. The pump is $4K and allows me to pump nat gas into the compression tanks at the rate of about a gallon an hour. Overnight my ten gallon tank would fill up completely, and my wife's vehicle can fill up during the day.

The calculators tell me I'm looking at a 4.5 year break even vs 3.75 gasoline, I think that's about right. The convenience of fuelling up at home every night is also nice. The cars will still have full gas tanks but I'll probably fill them up with no-ethanol 91 octane race gas so even if it sits for a couple months there's nothing to clog up the fuel system.

Nat gas will probably be around longer than liquid gasoline, or will be viable longer, however you want to look at it. Apartment renters are going to be kind of fucked though, it will be tough to find a way to fuel them up.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 27 Jun 2021, 11:08:30

Ayoob wrote:On a more personal note, I'm getting ready to install a vehicle CNG pump at my house, and install CNG fuel tanks in my vehicles. I'm hoping to get it all done by the end of the summer. The pump is $4K and allows me to pump nat gas into the compression tanks at the rate of about a gallon an hour. Overnight my ten gallon tank would fill up completely, and my wife's vehicle can fill up during the day.

The calculators tell me I'm looking at a 4.5 year break even vs 3.75 gasoline, I think that's about right. The convenience of fuelling up at home every night is also nice. The cars will still have full gas tanks but I'll probably fill them up with no-ethanol 91 octane race gas so even if it sits for a couple months there's nothing to clog up the fuel system.

Nat gas will probably be around longer than liquid gasoline, or will be viable longer, however you want to look at it. Apartment renters are going to be kind of fucked though, it will be tough to find a way to fuel them up.


If you install a decent size outside home tank and just use the pump to keep it topped up you could fill each vehicle in a few minutes at need.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 13:24:35

Tricky job predicting NG availability and prices. Becoming much more a global market place then just our domestic consumption:

In 2019, the United States exported natural gas to about 38 countries. In 2019, total annual U.S. natural gas exports were 4.66 Tcf—the highest on record, and the United States was a net exporter of natural gas for the third year in a row. Jul 21, 2020

Need to keep an eye on Canada: In 2019, about 98% of U.S. total annual natural gas imports were from Canada and nearly all by pipelines.

Checkout the very troubled history of the Cheniere Energy Sabine Pass terminal. These are the supposed experts and their projections have been very erroneous over time.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 16 Aug 2021, 22:42:15

"U.S. Natural Gas Dominance May Be Coming To An End"
By Robert Rapier
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas ... n-End.html

"This is the fourth article in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. Previous articles provided an overview of this year’s Review, an examination of the data on carbon emissions, and a look at oil supply and demand trends.

Today I delve into the data on natural gas production and consumption."

"The U.S. may continue to lead the world in natural gas production for a few more years, but the level of proved natural gas reserves implies that our lead could be short-lived.

The Middle East’s proved natural gas reserves at the end of 2017 were 2.8 quadrillion cubic feet, versus U.S. proved reserves of 446 trillion cubic feet. For perspective, U.S. proved reserves are only 6.7% of the global total.

Russia has more proved natural gas reserves than any other country with 1.3 quadrillion cubic feet, followed by Iran with 1.1 quadrillion cubic feet. Total proved natural gas reserves at the end of 2020 were enough to satisfy 2020 global production rates for 48.8 years."

The article contains links to the other articles mentioned.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 10 Sep 2021, 16:45:11

Nordstream 2 is complete. Now we get to wait and see if it is actually used, and what impact it'll have on LNG aspirations of the US.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Fri 17 Sep 2021, 10:06:44

So the stellar intellects in Bruxelles who thought they could blackmail Russia with the export limitations on Gazprom owned and built pipelines "daring" to enter their paranoid utopia are now reaping what they sowed. EU natural gas prices on the spot market are now over $800 per thousand cubic meters. Meanwhile Germany is getting contracted gas from Gazprom for $220 per tcm. The EU propaganda chorus media tries to paint this as all a big conspiracy by Russia to drive up the prices. No you retard fecks, it is all your own fault since you limit Gazprom's exports over its own pipelines by 50% under the phony pretext of deregulation. Who are these other natural gas suppliers who are going to use Gazprom's pipelines? This is not AT&T and Bell Canada telephone infrastructure deregulation. There are no other suppliers.

Bruxelles thought that forcing a spot market trade for extremely limited supply natural gas would drive the prices lower. They assumed that LNG would be oversupplied but these retards forgot that LNG chases the far east market and the prices there have been over $1000 per tcm. Maybe this is all part of Putin's big conspiracy to drive up EU prices by making prices high in far east. This is the tinfoil hat level of analysis that passes for western policy setting these days.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Fri 17 Sep 2021, 10:13:16

AgentR11 wrote:Nordstream 2 is complete. Now we get to wait and see if it is actually used, and what impact it'll have on LNG aspirations of the US.


The German bureaucracy dancing in tune with Bruxelles is delaying the certification. Also NS2 has been limited to 50% capacity even though Germany promised to delay this by 20 years. Considering that it was Merkel who lobbied for the additional Baltic pipeline from Russia, Germany is still engaged in retarded posturing. Gazprom met its obligations but it is up to Bruxelles and Deutschland how much gas comes down the pipe. Gazprom is currently satisfying all of its delivery contracts. Looks like EU-rope is not interested in more. But EU-rope is not the only market for Russian natural gas and the delivery capacity to those markets is soon going to dwarf the EU one.

I hope these losers keep cooking with $800 and higher spot prices. They are currently tapping their reserves and hoping the coming winter is warm. If the prices stay high into 2022, which is quite possible since the fundamentals will not change, then reality will catch up to them.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 17 Sep 2021, 11:27:48

Ayoob wrote:On a more personal note, I'm getting ready to install a vehicle CNG pump at my house, and install CNG fuel tanks in my vehicles. I'm hoping to get it all done by the end of the summer. The pump is $4K and allows me to pump nat gas into the compression tanks at the rate of about a gallon an hour. Overnight my ten gallon tank would fill up completely, and my wife's vehicle can fill up during the day.

The calculators tell me I'm looking at a 4.5 year break even vs 3.75 gasoline, I think that's about right. The convenience of fuelling up at home every night is also nice. The cars will still have full gas tanks but I'll probably fill them up with no-ethanol 91 octane race gas so even if it sits for a couple months there's nothing to clog up the fuel system.

Nat gas will probably be around longer than liquid gasoline, or will be viable longer, however you want to look at it. Apartment renters are going to be kind of fucked though, it will be tough to find a way to fuel them up.

Interesting thoughts.

First, re keeping 91 octane no ethanol race gas, I suspect that will be rather expensive.

Another approach which should be cheaper and viable, would be to use a fuel stabilizer. Based on my experience with finicky lawn mowers and cars that mostly sit --

During the worst of the pandemic (thus far anyway), I was hardly driving at ALL, and was concerned about fuel deterioration. But even when I just had, say, a half of a tank of normal 87 octane Shell brand gas with ethanol, my '17 Camry showed NO issues with starting or running at all after several months, with the ethanol in the gas tank sucking up whatever moisture might get to it. This was with me driving literally 100 miles a month at most, buying food on occasion.

And that was WITHOUT any fuel stabilizer. I think you could use normal gas, cheap fuel stabilizer, just drive a little on occasion to stir things around and run gas through the system a bit, and you'd be good. I'm no expert -- that's based on my experience with gas and fuel stabilizers and mowers and cars.

Second, if the issue is primarily economic, it's far easier and likely more financially rewarding to just put money in high quality relevant stocks, collect the dividends, and if oil and natural gas get expensive, your stocks will generally be quite profitable.

CVX (Chevron) seems relatively cheap to me, for example, given that WTI is solidly above $70, and it pays a nice dividend.

You could even use options to improve the return. On a $96.5ish stock that pays nearly a 5.5% dividend, and the ability to sell, say, two month out of the money calls or puts for 3 or 4 percent of the price of the stock, that's a way to make some nice income over time for the patient investor. (Obviously, selling call options reduces your protection if fuel prices spike -- people pay you the premiums for a reason. OTOH, you can bank any expiring premium, and roll options a little in the money at expiration over to more expensive and/or higher priced calls. Same idea with puts if the prices go down.) Just never overdo it with any one stock, as oil is a very volatile beast over time.

Third, if the concern is that fuel might get scarce (and/or very expensive), then some form of EV seems an obvious choice. An HEV instead of a pure ICE with the Toyota hybrid system will give a LOT of the bang for the buck if gas is $4 or especially $5, over the life of a quality car. And with the fantastic HEV system warranty, at least on all new Toyota HEV's in the US, the risk is minimal.

Pure EV's or PHEV's are generally expensive for new ones, but supposedly they're going to get much cheaper in the next 3 to 5 years. We shall see, of course, but if there is a $10K or so federal tax credit, that certainly won't hurt. And then you can conveniently charge at home and have NO worries re fuel for the EV at all. The expensive batteries and battery life are clearly the risk there, though in most places you save substantially on fuel, especially if fuel prices spike. I'm not buying the idea that, for example, Tesla batteries will last DECADES until that is firmly proven in the real world, and it's documented how that happens (like charging and driving habits required).

Despite all the moaning about doom going around, it's great for consumers to have a LOT of viable choices -- if they're just willing to do some thinking and planning and saving so they have resources to utilize their choices well.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 12:41:46

So as of September 2021, Gazprom has supplied 5 billion cubic meters more natural gas to the EU compared to 2020. At the same time the US has supplied 17 billion cubic meters (in LNG form, uncompressed) less than 2020.

Let that sink in. The haters in the EU are basically crapping their pants spewing at Russia while ignoring all the rosy promises from their owner across the Atlantic Ocean. EU morons actually thought that spot priced LNG was going to be cheaper than Gazprom's contract piped gas but now are in total denial as this "molecules of freedom" LNG is chasing the far east market.

I thought the west understood capitalism. Clearly not.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 22 Sep 2021, 14:48:05

From the EIA:

U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) continued to grow in the first six months of 2021, averaging 9.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). This average marks an increase of 42%, or 2.8 Bcf/d, compared with the same period in 2020 (according to the U.S. Department of Energy’s LNG Monthly reports and our estimates for June 2021, based on shipping data from Bloomberg Finance L.P.). During the summer months of 2020, U.S. LNG exports fell to record lows, but they set consecutive record highs in November and December.

U.S. LNG exports increased in the first half of this year as international natural gas and LNG spot prices increased in Asia and Europe due to cold weather. Rising global LNG demand once COVID-19 restrictions began to ease, as well as continuous unplanned outages at LNG export facilities in several countries (including Australia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Algeria, Norway, and Trinidad and Tobago), also contributed to increased U.S. LNG exports.

In Asia, colder-than-normal winter temperatures led to increased demand for spot LNG imports. Natural gas demand in the spring continued to rise amid low post-winter inventories, which contributed to unseasonably high natural gas prices. The high prices prompted a higher demand for more flexible LNG supplies, particularly from the United States.

In Europe, natural gas storage inventories were also low following a cold winter. Increasingly hot temperatures in May and June and greater natural gas demand from the electric power sector contributed to high natural gas spot prices. Europe’s natural gas spot prices have historically been lower than prices in Asia; however, this year, Europe’s natural gas prices are tracking Asia's spot LNG prices more closely to attract flexible LNG supplies from around the world to refill storage inventories.

The U.S. Henry Hub natural gas benchmark and U.S. LNG spot market prices have been lower than prices for international natural gas and spot LNG this year. This price difference has supported record volumes of U.S. LNG exports. U.S. LNG exports also increased because of new export capacity added in 2020. The final liquefaction units were commissioned at Freeport, Cameron, and Corpus Christi LNG, and the remaining small-scale units were placed in service at Elba Island LNG. The new units increased total U.S. LNG export capacity by a combined 2.7 Bcf/d for a total peak capacity of 10.8 Bcf/d.

Similar to 2020, Asia remained the top destination for U.S. LNG exports from January through May in 2021, accounting for 46% of the total. Asia was followed by Europe, which had a five-month average share of 37%. Exports to Latin America also increased, particularly to Brazil, which is experiencing its worst drought in more than 90 years.

In June, U.S. LNG exports declined slightly, mainly as a result of maintenance on several pipelines that deliver natural gas to U.S. LNG export facilities. Yet, we expect LNG exports to remain at high levels in the remaining months of this year in our Short-Term Energy Outlook.
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