Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby mustang19 » Fri 23 Jul 2021, 14:20:20

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/16

Temperatures are expected to fall, a colder than average winter.
mustang19
permanently banned
 
Posts: 841
Joined: Fri 06 Nov 2020, 20:43:52

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 23 Jul 2021, 16:31:12

mustang19 wrote:https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/16

Temperatures are expected to fall, a colder than average winter.

So you're also a climate change denier? Or just another random post?

And when the overall warming trend, globally, blatantly, doesn't persist for, say, 5 years in a row, be SURE and get back to us.

Because with many records and average temperatures having a very STRONG trend upward, re actual science folks with reputations (unlike you), that is highly unlikely, no matter how many times some idiot makes a snow ball, and then claims global warming is a myth.

BTW, the far right being generally anti-science only makes them less credible to people with a modicum (or more) of education.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9759
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Gmark » Fri 23 Jul 2021, 22:51:34

vtsnowedin wrote:While I don't doubt that circulation patterns can and do change I have to think that they cannot fail completely. As long as the tropics are warmer then the poles and the earth is rotating under the atmosphere, air will circulate from north to south and back again with cyclonic patterns caused by the earths rotation.


Yes, the research has shown that it isn't that the circulation patterns are failing, it's that they're getting weaker.

As you said, the driver is the temperature difference between the tropics and the arctic. But while the average global temperature has increased about 1C, the arctic specifically has warmed about 6C.

That reduced temperature gradient between the tropics and the arctic is what seems to be leading to weaker circulation and more fluctuations in the jet stream.
Gmark
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Fri 23 Jul 2021, 22:11:08

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 24 Jul 2021, 07:56:06

Gmark,

Welcome aboard.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 16402
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 26 Jul 2021, 10:28:06

not protests for political rights, not protests for economic reforms, not protests for food, but protests for water - getting pretty far down the hierarchy of needs. The Shape of things to come:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/theres-water ... 05434.html
There's a water shortage in Iran as temperatures hit 120F. Security forces are firing on protesters to stop demonstrations.

Amnesty International in a report Friday said that security forces had killed eight protestors, including a teenage boy, by deploying indiscriminate and deadly force. The clashes have continued since.

Severe droughts have affected parts of Iran since March, with protestors reportedly chanting "I am thirsty" at demonstrations as temperatures rise past 120 F. In an apparent bid to stop word of the protests spreading, Iran has imposed internet blackouts.
Ragnarok is Coming
User avatar
Azothius
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 238
Joined: Fri 24 Jul 2015, 15:21:59
Location: 45 Degrees North

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 26 Jul 2021, 14:21:42

Interesting. I have long felt water shortage would become a major issue.

It seems the major news agencies have reported it, if you search for it.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 16402
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Gmark » Mon 26 Jul 2021, 14:52:41

Newfie wrote:Interesting. I have long felt water shortage would become a major issue.

It seems the major news agencies have reported it, if you search for it.


One of the effects of a severe drought is that it starts to eat into the cooling water supplies for nuclear reactors. Some of them have had to reduce their power output as a result.
Gmark
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Fri 23 Jul 2021, 22:11:08

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 26 Jul 2021, 17:31:32

Azothius wrote:not protests for political rights, not protests for economic reforms, not protests for food, but protests for water - getting pretty far down the hierarchy of needs.

Severe droughts have affected parts of Iran since March, with protestors reportedly chanting "I am thirsty" at demonstrations as temperatures rise past 120 F. In an apparent bid to stop word of the protests spreading, Iran has imposed internet blackouts.


Did you mean to say pretty far up the hierarchy of needs?

In survival training there is something called the Rule of Threes, which states that you can survive around three minutes without air (drowning/suffocation), three hours without regulating your body temperature (heatstroke/hypothermia), three days without water (thirst/dehydration), and 3 weeks without food(hunger/starvation). Of course, those 3s may change to 4s, 5s, or 6s, but the basic rule order stands, with the consideration that hydration moves up one place in temperate climates were death from exposure is hardly a possibility. Keeping in mind that proper hydration is very important to regulating body temperature, particularly in hot, sunny weather.

Water is more important for human survival than political rights, economic reforms, or food.
"Only Americans can hurt America." Dwight D. Eisenhower
"We have met the enemy and he is us." Pogo
JuanP
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1587
Joined: Sat 16 Aug 2014, 15:06:32

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 28 Jul 2021, 13:29:44

JuanP wrote:
Did you mean to say pretty far up the hierarchy of needs?



In survival training there is something called the Rule of Threes, which states that you can survive around three minutes without air (drowning/suffocation), three hours without regulating your body temperature (heatstroke/hypothermia), three days without water (thirst/dehydration), and 3 weeks without food(hunger/starvation). Of course, those 3s may change to 4s, 5s, or 6s, but the basic rule order stands, with the consideration that hydration moves up one place in temperate climates were death from exposure is hardly a possibility. Keeping in mind that proper hydration is very important to regulating body temperature, particularly in hot, sunny weather.

Water is more important for human survival than political rights, economic reforms, or food.



Hi Juan, I was referring to Maslow's Hierarchy of needs, with the basic physical needs to survive at the base:

Image

Yes, i'm very aware of the rule of threes. And I totally agree, and meant to imply, that Water is more important for human survival than political rights, economic reforms, or food.
Ragnarok is Coming
User avatar
Azothius
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 238
Joined: Fri 24 Jul 2015, 15:21:59
Location: 45 Degrees North

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 28 Jul 2021, 20:13:50

Azothius wrote:
JuanP wrote:
Did you mean to say pretty far up the hierarchy of needs?



In survival training there is something called the Rule of Threes, which states that you can survive around three minutes without air (drowning/suffocation), three hours without regulating your body temperature (heatstroke/hypothermia), three days without water (thirst/dehydration), and 3 weeks without food(hunger/starvation). Of course, those 3s may change to 4s, 5s, or 6s, but the basic rule order stands, with the consideration that hydration moves up one place in temperate climates were death from exposure is hardly a possibility. Keeping in mind that proper hydration is very important to regulating body temperature, particularly in hot, sunny weather.

Water is more important for human survival than political rights, economic reforms, or food.



Hi Juan, I was referring to Maslow's Hierarchy of needs, with the basic physical needs to survive at the base:

Image

Yes, i'm very aware of the rule of threes. And I totally agree, and meant to imply, that Water is more important for human survival than political rights, economic reforms, or food.


Got it! I thought so. Yes, we totally agree. I think freshwater availability, melting glaciers, depleting aquifers, floods, and droughts are what will do many of us in. Many people are not aware of the importance of water or how much we depend on having the right amount of water in the right place at the right time to grow our food. I am horrified by how we waste water in most places.

I wasn't thinking in terms of Maslow's pyramid; that's why I was confused by your post.
"Only Americans can hurt America." Dwight D. Eisenhower
"We have met the enemy and he is us." Pogo
JuanP
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1587
Joined: Sat 16 Aug 2014, 15:06:32

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 07 Aug 2021, 15:52:45

User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 16402
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 07 Aug 2021, 20:46:11

With all the dams in America no one is going to die of thirst, but a few lawns might wither and die.
theluckycountry
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 140
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby JuanP » Fri 03 Sep 2021, 20:28:29

"Brazil’s Fierce Drought"
https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/09/03 ... e-drought/

"The Amazon rainforest is arguably the world’s premier asset. Indeed, it’s the world’s most crucial asset in a myriad of ways, nothing on Earth compares. Yet, it is infernally stressed because of inordinate drought. The bulk of the Amazon rainforest is located in Brazil, where, according to the title of an article in NASA, Earth Observatory, the country headline says it all: “Brazil Battered by Drought.”

Moreover, the planet is becoming a drought-besieged planet (see- Drought Clobbers the World, August 27, 2021). As for the Amazon, according to NASA, it has been battered by serious bouts of drought every 5 years 1998, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020-21. As such, the normally resilient forest does not have a chance to catch breath and repair damage.

Sassan Saatchi, NASA JPL claims; “The old paradigm was that whatever carbon dioxide we put up in (human-caused) emissions, the Amazon would help absorb a major part of it… The ecosystem has become so vulnerable to these warming and episodic drought events that it can switch from sink to source depending on the severity and the extent. This is our new paradigm.” (Source: NASA Finds Amazon Drought Leaves Long Legacy of Damage, Capitals Coalition)"

A thoroughly depressing article on the current conditions in Brazil's Amazon jungle and Pantanal wetlands, respectively the largest tropical jungle and tropical wetlands of the planet.
"Only Americans can hurt America." Dwight D. Eisenhower
"We have met the enemy and he is us." Pogo
JuanP
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1587
Joined: Sat 16 Aug 2014, 15:06:32

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 04 Sep 2021, 04:17:45

JuanP wrote:
A thoroughly depressing article on the current conditions in Brazil's Amazon jungle and Pantanal wetlands, respectively the largest tropical jungle and tropical wetlands of the planet.


The Paraná River runs from Brazil to Argentina. It is the second-longest, 4,800 km or approx. 3,000 miles, river in Brazil, just behind the Amazon. It supplies electricity and water to 40 million people. At the current hydro flow rate, blackouts are likely this year, especially during peak hours.


And that's the problem with relying on alternative energy sources. Hydro is the best by far, but a drought is all it takes.
Good article
theluckycountry
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 140
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 06 Sep 2021, 10:48:34

theluckycountry wrote:
JuanP wrote:
A thoroughly depressing article on the current conditions in Brazil's Amazon jungle and Pantanal wetlands, respectively the largest tropical jungle and tropical wetlands of the planet.


The Paraná River runs from Brazil to Argentina. It is the second-longest, 4,800 km or approx. 3,000 miles, river in Brazil, just behind the Amazon. It supplies electricity and water to 40 million people. At the current hydro flow rate, blackouts are likely this year, especially during peak hours.


And that's the problem with relying on alternative energy sources. Hydro is the best by far, but a drought is all it takes.
Good article

OTOH, having LOTS of differing energy sources, and good backup systems (like affordable batteries that don't burn hot and explode, hopefully before too long with solid state batteries) makes the energy system FAR more robust and stable overall. But doing something like being completely dependent on hydro for large cities near rivers sounds like a VERY bad idea indeed, even if AGW weren't a thing.

Of course, human planning being what it is, we tend to do whatever's cheapest in the short run. Which likely is NOT robust. Trade-offs.

I have a whole-house NG generator for a backup. When they get much better and cheaper, I also plan to have a battery backup system (the generator can have a part fail occasionally as it ages). Down the line, if I can get some solar without voiding my roof warranty, I'd like some of that to have another way to charge the batteries, etc.

Unfortunately such equipment isn't free, and if people would rather take fancy vacations and drive fancy cars, wear fancy clothes, eat at expensive places, yadda yadda, then they won't invest in such things. Again, trade-offs. For me, having had a 2 week power outage with a foot of water in the basement in the winter after a nasty ice storm, not having power backup is unacceptable.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9759
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY

Previous

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

cron