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Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 21 Jul 2021, 16:11:51

jedrider wrote:
Also, whether the crash will be slow or fast. I need to read up on the fast/slow thread, but fast seems inevitable, but obviously it will be like a series of water falls when it does happen.

I think it depends on how ling you have been aware lol. 15 years ago I told my then 14yo son that he would likely never drive a car because oil would be too expensive or access to it too restricted. Boy was I wrong. But that was the accepted thinking back then.

Rome didn't fall in a decade and neither will out societies but I think these lockdown measures are extending the oil reserves for us. Good news if you can keep your job or have assets to draw on for the future.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 21 Jul 2021, 22:03:23

theluckycountry wrote:
jedrider wrote:
Also, whether the crash will be slow or fast. I need to read up on the fast/slow thread, but fast seems inevitable, but obviously it will be like a series of water falls when it does happen.

I think it depends on how ling you have been aware lol. 15 years ago I told my then 14yo son that he would likely never drive a car because oil would be too expensive or access to it too restricted. Boy was I wrong. But that was the accepted thinking back then.


Among active congregation members back then maybe. Please don't presume that we were all that kind of sucker.

theluckycountry wrote:Rome didn't fall in a decade and neither will out societies but I think these lockdown measures are extending the oil reserves for us. Good news if you can keep your job or have assets to draw on for the future.


Oil reserves aren't the issue. The cost and conversion rate of resources to reserves is.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 22 Jul 2021, 09:06:35

JD Unwin (Sex and Culture) and John Glubb (Fate of Empires) have entered the chat.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 22 Jul 2021, 17:15:05

Glub was interesting and closely paralleled a book called “Wealth and Democracy”.

The other book is gonna have to wait until I am good and bored to wade through nearly 700 pages.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 23 Jul 2021, 16:06:51

AdamB wrote:Oil reserves aren't the issue. The cost and conversion rate of resources to reserves is.


You are simply nitpicking to reinforce your own particular unique view. When we had oil gushing out of the ground 50 years ago nothing was an issue, now the reserves have depleted, it's an issue. No different to the fuel tank in your car really.

But discussing any of the finer points of oil extraction or reserves is rather pointless now. We all know the trend and there are far more important things to concern us. Such as how will I pay for stuff in ten years if the economy has collapsed and my mouse-pusher job has gone the way of the telex.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Peak_Yeast » Fri 23 Jul 2021, 16:50:58

If anyone tries to remember back some 25 years. Back then there was like noone worried about end of fisheries, end of forests, end of bushment, global polution, nobody made their food products smaller and more expensive. It was a tiny fringe subject.

Today almost everything revolves around optimization: Do not eat meat, recycle, repair, install heat pumps, buy hybrid or electric cars, work from home, dont travel, food products gets far more expensive while they try to hide it by using slightly smaller packaging, every day there is news telling one how bad things are going, how much forest has burned, lack of drinking water, drought, poluted or collapsing ecosystems...

The difference would be dramatic if the media landscape had changed from day to day, but now many people are used to it - and still dont care. But 25 years is nothing when we are measuring on a civilisation scale - or the scale of humankind existing here for a "long" time.

That some effects are off by a few decades does not change the direction or the end result. It is obvious that the supply systems are getting very strained and increasing desperate.
The interest rates are insanely below 0 in many places - this shows the enormeous economic trickery to make things look good and prevent an economic collapse which would initiate collapses in many other sectors. It is just like wiley coyote that has run off the cliff edge, but hasnt noticed yet. They have put on the danger sensitive sunglasses and they have gone completely opaque - out of sight - out of mind and what we ignore cant hurt us....
"If democracy is the least bad form of government - then why dont we try it for real?"
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 24 Jul 2021, 07:51:00

Peak yeast,

That is mostly correct. Humans are very adaptable but have great difficulty dealing with sufficiently future threats. May be our undoing.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 24 Jul 2021, 10:56:56

Peak_Yeast wrote: It is just like wiley coyote that has run off the cliff edge, but hasn't noticed yet.

Good post PY, What can I add? I used to try and be part of the solution but there was never going to be a solution, at least not one that allowed me to live as a free man with a decent standard of living. So many of us now, retreated to quiet corners of the internet, watching as though from afar the collapse of the great machine.

There was a great graphic back in the day, of a Bell Curve depicting industrial man's rise from the horse and cart to the space age and then declining through blackouts to a candle when the curve bottomed out. It was on the old dieoff.org site I think.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 24 Jul 2021, 11:54:25

I try to adopt what I call the …

“Anthropologist from Andromeda”….

approach. It allows one to have a different, disinterested, longer time frame view point. 8O

We are caught in a web of conundrums, no easy (or maybe even hard) way out.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby diemos » Sat 24 Jul 2021, 12:46:34

jedrider wrote:
Also, whether the crash will be slow or fast. I need to read up on the fast/slow thread, but fast seems inevitable, but obviously it will be like a series of water falls when it does happen.


In 1968 a man with a high school diploma could get a job on the assembly line and make enough money to buy a house, support a family, have medical care, send the kids to college.

Now a man has to have a masters degree to work three crappy mcjobs to have enough money to rent an apartment.

That's collapse. It's happening all around you, but like the hour hand on a clock it's happening slowly enough that nothing seems to be happening at all. Things have just become the new normal.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby mustang19 » Sun 25 Jul 2021, 04:10:59

diemos wrote:
jedrider wrote:
Also, whether the crash will be slow or fast. I need to read up on the fast/slow thread, but fast seems inevitable, but obviously it will be like a series of water falls when it does happen.


In 1968 a man with a high school diploma could get a job on the assembly line and make enough money to buy a house, support a family, have medical care, send the kids to college.

Now a man has to have a masters degree to work three crappy mcjobs to have enough money to rent an apartment.

That's collapse. It's happening all around you, but like the hour hand on a clock it's happening slowly enough that nothing seems to be happening at all. Things have just become the new normal.


https://economics.stackexchange.com/que ... a-vs-1950s
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 25 Jul 2021, 17:51:39

theluckycountry wrote:
AdamB wrote:Oil reserves aren't the issue. The cost and conversion rate of resources to reserves is.


You are simply nitpicking to reinforce your own particular unique view.


Yes...nitpicking data and whatnot, to make a point, goodness knows if more people here used data rather than speculation, innuendo and random confusion of words we all might learn more.

theluckycountry wrote: When we had oil gushing out of the ground 50 years ago nothing was an issue, now the reserves have depleted, it's an issue. No different to the fuel tank in your car really.


Peak oil for the US was being claimed by Hubbert in the late 1930's. What are you talking about, oil gushing out of the ground? You watch the Beverly Hillbillies or something?

Depletion is a word. It means something. You aren't required to use the words that mean what you are thinking, but don't ever confuse what you then write down with what you meant.

We began DEPLETING oil and natural gas in the early to mid19th century. No one gets to pretend that it is a new thing.

theluckycountry wrote:But discussing any of the finer points of oil extraction or reserves is rather pointless now.


No more than it was when I was telling Happy McPeaksters they were off their nut when they were pretending it happened in 2005. Where were you when the REAL experts were busy discussing "the finer points" (and getting them wrong)?


theluckycountry wrote:We all know the trend and there are far more important things to concern us. Such as how will I pay for stuff in ten years if the economy has collapsed and my mouse-pusher job has gone the way of the telex.


That is exactly what was implied 15 years ago when peak oil supposedly happened. And yet here you, and your mouse pusher job still are...and we haven't nuked each other, starved to death, to needed to fight off MZBs.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Gmark » Sun 25 Jul 2021, 18:07:12

mustang19 wrote:
diemos wrote:
jedrider wrote:
Also, whether the crash will be slow or fast. I need to read up on the fast/slow thread, but fast seems inevitable, but obviously it will be like a series of water falls when it does happen.


In 1968 a man with a high school diploma could get a job on the assembly line and make enough money to buy a house, support a family, have medical care, send the kids to college.

Now a man has to have a masters degree to work three crappy mcjobs to have enough money to rent an apartment.

That's collapse. It's happening all around you, but like the hour hand on a clock it's happening slowly enough that nothing seems to be happening at all. Things have just become the new normal.


https://economics.stackexchange.com/que ... a-vs-1950s


That's pretty good source data!

Kind of comical that the same group banned you for submitting posts that were factually deceptive.
Last edited by Gmark on Sun 25 Jul 2021, 18:18:28, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Gmark » Sun 25 Jul 2021, 18:16:44

Gmark wrote:
mustang19 wrote:
diemos wrote:
jedrider wrote:
Also, whether the crash will be slow or fast. I need to read up on the fast/slow thread, but fast seems inevitable, but obviously it will be like a series of water falls when it does happen.


In 1968 a man with a high school diploma could get a job on the assembly line and make enough money to buy a house, support a family, have medical care, send the kids to college.

Now a man has to have a masters degree to work three crappy mcjobs to have enough money to rent an apartment.

That's collapse. It's happening all around you, but like the hour hand on a clock it's happening slowly enough that nothing seems to be happening at all. Things have just become the new normal.


https://economics.stackexchange.com/que ... a-vs-1950s


That's pretty good source data!

Kind of comical that the same group banned you for five years for submitting posts that were factually deceptive.


Interesting that the automotive decline isn't matched in the aviation industry. I would have guessed that aviation would decline faster and further.
http://fi-aeroweb.com/General-Aviation.html
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby mustang19 » Sun 25 Jul 2021, 18:31:30

Gmark wrote:
mustang19 wrote:
diemos wrote:
jedrider wrote:
Also, whether the crash will be slow or fast. I need to read up on the fast/slow thread, but fast seems inevitable, but obviously it will be like a series of water falls when it does happen.


In 1968 a man with a high school diploma could get a job on the assembly line and make enough money to buy a house, support a family, have medical care, send the kids to college.

Now a man has to have a masters degree to work three crappy mcjobs to have enough money to rent an apartment.

That's collapse. It's happening all around you, but like the hour hand on a clock it's happening slowly enough that nothing seems to be happening at all. Things have just become the new normal.


https://economics.stackexchange.com/que ... a-vs-1950s


That's pretty good source data!

Kind of comical that the same group banned you for submitting posts that were factually deceptive.


If you're going to troll, don't do it on behalf of a obviously failed industry like global warming or renewables.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 26 Jul 2021, 16:36:26

Gmark wrote:Interesting that the automotive decline isn't matched in the aviation industry. I would have guessed that aviation would decline faster and further.
http://fi-aeroweb.com/General-Aviation.html




That data only goes to 2019. Look a bit deeper Gmark.

Image
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Gmark » Sat 31 Jul 2021, 20:25:39

theluckycountry wrote:
Gmark wrote:Interesting that the automotive decline isn't matched in the aviation industry. I would have guessed that aviation would decline faster and further.
http://fi-aeroweb.com/General-Aviation.html




That data only goes to 2019. Look a bit deeper Gmark.

Image


That's major manufacturer's. I was thinking more of General Aviation, where Cessna is the top manufacturer.

I'll try and find it again, but i did read that General Aviation did very well through the pandemic, with companies frequently chartering flights to move their people around.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 01 Aug 2021, 12:52:49

diemos wrote:In 1968 a man with a high school diploma could get a job on the assembly line and make enough money to buy a house, support a family, have medical care, send the kids to college.

Now a man has to have a masters degree to work three crappy mcjobs to have enough money to rent an apartment.

That's collapse. It's happening all around you, but like the hour hand on a clock it's happening slowly enough that nothing seems to be happening at all. Things have just become the new normal.

And if the best you can do is make such completely NONSENSICAL claims (re the red text, my font for emphasis), WHY EVEN BOTHER TO POST?

First, we're rapidly moving toward a $15 minimum wage, with most minimum wages being used by companies of any size over $10 and rapidly escalating.

Second, ONE such job will "rent an apartment" in all but the very most expensive cities. (Everyone doesn't need a luxury apartment). And in the real world, if you can't AFFORD to live in NYC or SF, etc. and work at McDonald's doing endless basic food service because you can't or won't move up, then you should MOVE to a LOW cost of living area, where crappy apartments are cheap. (Even if that does make lots of liberals cry).

OTOH, one could work hard, or get some more education, or express to management the desire and willingness to do work to move up, etc. Hell, at Walmart they're now paying for ALL college education expenses for such workers who are trying to move up.

Yeah, the world changes. And certainly, to get a GOOD job, you need much more than a high school education. Clearly making college (at least public schools) free is a liberal agenda item -- though how they're going to pay for that is far less clear.

Why not just state the truth instead of the wild, fact free exaggeration? All that does is give you ZERO credibility with anyone with a brain who cares about data and reality. Is making a valid point worthless to you if you can't endlessly shriek "doom"?

Again, why bother to shriek "collapse", if you have to resort to utter nonsense to sell it? Does revving up the fact-free insta-doomers trump reality endlessly?

It's not surprising that the endless expansion of population over time on a resource constrained planet has its downsides. If it weren't for all the upsides of technology which help compensate to some extent, it would be much, much worse. Humans could get smarter and implement policies to prevent further population expansion, or preferably, greatly shrink the global population in time.

Actions (or refusal to take needed actions) HAS consequences. That doesn't imply "collapse".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Pops » Sun 01 Aug 2021, 18:28:58

I don't really remember what the OP was about but my take on civilizational collapse is we
a) appear to be bending the population curve earlier than thought
b) are making good headway on renewables —before high oil prices force us into an energy trap
c) have increased global income, raising the lowest out of poverty to an extent

Those are all good, but we
a) still have a larger population than ever, I personally think too large for our planet
b) still only get 10-20 to 1 EROI from PV & wind before storage
c) it isn't apparent that 3rd world sweatshops are sustainable without western borrowing.

Really, that last is the biggest dot in the collapse collage to me —and it is not the fact that we have to borrow to pay little Chinese girls to sew our underwear. Every year since leaving behind the gold standard our borrowing exceeds our economic growth. If your household debt increased more, every year, than your household income, any sane person would say you are headed for a fall.

I'm afraid it is more than just profligacy, or lack of political will to "balance" the books. I think we can no longer grow, that we've reached a point of diminishing returns, whether through lack of ideas or access to resources or simply starving the workers of income.

This chart shows the amount of debt added yearly. The only years since 1960 that we didn't add more debt that the previous were the years when billions in debt disappeared in bankruptcies.
Image

This next chart takes that yearly addition to debt and subtracts it from "growth" or the yearly change in GDP. Again, he only years since 1970 that "growth" wasn't way smaller than added debt was when piles of debt evaporated in the great recession.

Image

Borrowing is fine when it finances a future benefit or even better, future growth. But after 50 years it is pretty obvious that there is no future benefit about to kick in. We aren't borrowing for college or productive equipment, we're borrowing to pay the cable bill.

Is it falling EROI? I don't know. My knee jerk is no, no one has any evidence.
Could it be the peak plateau hiding behind LTO Drill-Baby exerting some hidden drag? Maybe, but what evidence is there of that?

Perhaps Is it the wealthy taking such a big slice there is nothing left to grow a middle class? Maybe.
The stock market is such a bubble it is funny, Crypto, Non-Fungible Tokens? LOL. All because the ownership has been successful in transferring profit up they can no longer justify investing in more production: because the proles have no more money... the owners keep it!

Or maybe not. Financing GDP "growth" for the sake of a good market for the owners may be fine, but it feels more like fiddling while Rome burns.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 02 Aug 2021, 07:48:31

Pops,

Some interesting points. I need to reread tuis and think about it a bit. I have long felt that the most emergent threat is the over complexity to the global financial system. That kinda sounds like where you are going.

I also believe that we are running out the Limits to Growth curve, reaching the apex. It is not yet a clear downhill slide from now onC the peak is not sharp. But it is not a stairway to heaven either. The road ahead is full of potholes.
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