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Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

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Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Pops » Mon 19 Jul 2021, 08:44:35

World’s recoverable oil now seen 9% slimmer; commercial volumes can keep global warming below 1.8˚C
July 13, 2021

Every year and following the publication of the BP Statistical Review, Rystad Energy releases its own assessment to provide an independent, solid and clear comparison of how the world’s energy landscape changed last year. Our 2021 review deals a major blow for the size of the world’s remaining recoverable oil resources – but it also shows that oil production and consumption can align with climate goals.

Rystad Energy now estimates total recoverable oil resources at 1,725 billion barrels, a significant reduction of last year’s estimate of 1,903 billion barrels. Out of this total, which shows our estimate of how much oil is technically recoverable in the future, about 1,300 billion barrels are sufficiently profitable to be produced before the year 2100 at a Brent real oil price of $50 per barrel.

“In this scenario, global production of oil and natural gas liquids will fall below 50 million barrels per day by 2050. Exploring, developing, processing and consuming this amount of commercially extractable oil will lead to gross greenhouse gas emissions of less than 450 gigatonnes of CO­­2 from now until 2100. This is compliant with IPCC’s carbon budget for global warming limited to 1.8˚C by 2100,” says Rystad Energy’s Head of Analysis, Per Magnus Nysveen.

[table at link]

US and China take the largest hit by the revision:

This year’s review of global recoverable oil resources is based on resources modelled at well level rather than field level. This more detailed approach has removed 178 billion barrels from the expected accounts as the confidence level for decline rates has increased with the amount of new information gathered.

Our updated report also includes revisions for proved reserves. Here Rystad Energy applies a consistent set of conservative probabilities, as opposed to official reporting by authorities which is deemed less consistent. Among other findings, we see significant differences among OPEC members on the longevity of proved reserves, ranging from well below 10 years for some members to almost 20 years for Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In terms of absolute volumes removed from non-OPEC producers, remaining recoverable resources in the US are now reduced to 214 billion barrels, losing 30 billion barrels from last year’s estimate. China suffers the second-largest loss with its remaining recoverable resources now limited to 50 billion barrels, a downwards revision of 26 billion barrels. Mexico’s recoverable resources are third on the loss list, downgraded by 12 billion barrels to 26 billion barrels. Most of this year’s revisions are driven by lower upside potential from shale oil drilling due to complex geology and the need for extensive exploration campaigns and improved fracking technologies.

The remaining recoverable resources of OPEC countries are reduced by 53 billion barrels to 741 billion barrels. Iran and Saudi Arabia have the largest revisions, losing 11 billion barrels each, with Saudi recoverable oil volumes now calculated at 288 billion barrels and Iranian volumes at 101 billion barrels. Iraq follows in third place, seeing its recoverable resources shrink by 8 billion barrels to 110 billion barrels.

Who sits on the largest resources?

In this revision, Saudi Arabia keeps the throne as the producer with the largest volumes of recoverable oil resources (288 billion barrels). The US follows second (214 billion barrels), Russia third (149 billion barrels) and Canada fourth (138 billion barrels).

In Central and South America, Brazil remains first in recoverable resources, sitting on 83 billion barrels (down 2 billion barrels from last year’s update). In Europe, with 19 billion barrels (down by 1 billion barrels in this update), Norway remains ahead of the UK, whose volumes have shrunk by 2 billion barrels to 10 billion. In Africa, resource leader Nigeria lost 6 billion barrels and its recoverable resources are now estimated at 20 billion barrels.

Unlike most countries in our analysis, Australia’s estimated recoverable oil resources are now seen higher by 2 billion barrels at 23 billion barrels.

The time stamp of Rystad Energy’s newest resource assessment is 1 January 2021. In other words, our analysis illustrates where the remaining recoverable resources of each country stood at the beginning of this year.



1.3 was about Laharrere's guess I think.
If C+C falls below 50mbd by 2050 the price won't stay at $50, unless ICEs are outlawed altogether. I don't see the explanation, perhaps lower demand and a resulting relatively low resulting price are the limiting factor.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 19 Jul 2021, 19:18:32

Pops,

An interesting article.

If I am reading this correctly they are basically saying we are out of usable oil/shale (liquid?) by 2100?

I see your point about oil price at that level of production.

Two ways to look at this.

2050 is only 30 years away. Climate change or not something needs to change.

In 2050 I will be 100. So there is that.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 19 Jul 2021, 19:59:17

Newfie wrote:Pops,

An interesting article.

If I am reading this correctly they are basically saying we are out of usable oil/shale (liquid?) by 2100?

I see your point about oil price at that level of production.

Two ways to look at this.

2050 is only 30 years away. Climate change or not something needs to change.

In 2050 I will be 100. So there is that.


I think they're just giving a general, extremely optimistic estimate and shell and bp say oil is in a fast crash and largely gone by 2050.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 19 Jul 2021, 20:56:35

Well if true then we are in a world of hurt. Not me, but young uns.

Aint no way we are on a trajectory to make that a smooth transition.

My guess is that we will be deep into coal gasification.

Which would blow the devil out of the 1.8°C rise.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 20 Jul 2021, 00:40:12

Dr. James Hansen and his co-workers published an analysis showing much the same thing over a decade ago, i.e. lower oil production due to peak oil would theoretically limit the amount of warming.

But its probably too late for reductions in oil production to save us.

The amount of CO2 coming from coal-fired power plants continues to rise thanks to China, and the amount of CH4 going into the atmosphere also is steadily increasing. And other greenhouse gases like hydrofluorocarbons and SP6 are also steadily increasing in the atmosphere.

AND we're already at the point where the planet has warmed so much that natural sources of CO2 and CH4 are increasing enough to make the planet warmer and warmer no matter what happens to anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

For instance, we saw a big drop in travel and oil use and human CO2 emissions last year during the pandemic , but atmospheric CO2 just kept on rising anyway thanks to increasing contributions from thawing permafrost etc.

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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Pops » Tue 20 Jul 2021, 09:19:25

My take is it forecasts peak oil demand. Nothing else would allow a price of $50/bbl while losing over a third of C+C production by 2050. Without a perfectly moving supply/demand balance— dramatically increasing EV deployment plus renewables— I can't see the price averaging nearly that low... but that's just a WAG.

OTOH, it is supposed to be a well-level estimate as opposed to their earlier field-level guess, someone came up with $50 for a reason.

It is actually more "pessimistic" (or optimistic, depending) than Laherrere's 2014 plot even before he added shale.

Image

Laherrere has done estimates since 2014 but I couldn't find them quickly. Dennis is a Laherrere guy it would be nice to hear from him.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby mustang19 » Tue 20 Jul 2021, 09:24:31

Pops wrote:My take is it forecasts peak oil demand. Nothing else would allow a price of $50/bbl while losing over a third of C+C production by 2050. Without a perfectly moving supply/demand balance— dramatically increasing EV deployment plus renewables— I can't see the price averaging nearly that low... but that's just a WAG.

OTOH, it is supposed to be a well-level estimate as opposed to their earlier field-level guess, someone came up with $50 for a reason.

It is actually more "pessimistic" (or optimistic, depending) than Laherrere's 2014 plot even before he added shale.

Image

Laherrere has done estimates since 2014 but I couldn't find them quickly. Dennis is a Laherrere guy it would be nice to hear from him.


Dennis is currently in existential crisis after realizing well overlap is physically impossible and permain ultimate is 12gb.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Pops » Tue 20 Jul 2021, 09:41:52

As for the climate part, I have no idea. I think humans in general have no idea. Every report I see is "conditions are worse than predicted." Does that mean we have no clue? Are the predictions wrong or just manipulated to be more palatable? Are the Boiling in Our Skins stories a warning or just click-bait? Either way I don't have confidence.

Global warming is a slow moving disaster, a death by a thousand cuts—a thousand floods, fires, tornadoes, hurricanes will strip our resilience one homeowner's claim at a time. PO on the other hand is going to be a quick hit. Price goes up, economy goes down.

Unfortunately we are going to get both.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Jul 2021, 14:35:47

Newfie wrote:Mustang,

I don’t have a clue of what you are talking about.

I don’t see where your statements, wherever they come from, are tied to this discussion.

What is 30kg of CO2 per sq meter supposed to mean and who made that claim? What is the context?

In reality, given that CO2 is a TINY fraction of the earth's atmosphere (call it 0.04 percent), he's clearly babbling nonsense -- yet again.

And the lack of meaningful, credible, serious scientific citations points to that, as per usual.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2915/the- ... n-dioxide/
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Jul 2021, 14:38:45

Pops wrote:As for the climate part, I have no idea. I think humans in general have no idea. Every report I see is "conditions are worse than predicted." Does that mean we have no clue? Are the predictions wrong or just manipulated to be more palatable? Are the Boiling in Our Skins stories a warning or just click-bait? Either way I don't have confidence.

Global warming is a slow moving disaster, a death by a thousand cuts—a thousand floods, fires, tornadoes, hurricanes will strip our resilience one homeowner's claim at a time. PO on the other hand is going to be a quick hit. Price goes up, economy goes down.

Unfortunately we are going to get both.

To me, the fact that the trend shows that conditions are worse than predicted says we don't have a good handle on it yet. And at the risk of stating the obvious for the deniers, it KEEPS GETTING WORSE, re the likely outcome, as we learn more.

I find that damn scary, thinking of people like my 2 year old grand-niece. I'll probably be dead before it gets that bad, but it's NOT all about me or people over 60, generally.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby mustang19 » Tue 20 Jul 2021, 20:12:12

JuanP wrote:
mustang19 wrote:https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US-CA-807&q=%2Fm%2F0d063v

I just want to add, global warming is declining in popularity. Keep clinging to your dying idea that peaked a few years ago and then people realized it requires co2 to be a ten times better insulator than fiberglass.


You are hilarious! Also, I have always disagreed with most humans on most issues, and I am proud of it when I see what humans are doing to our planet. Only rarely do I agree with the majority, and I like digging on those issues deeper when I do since most humans are incredibly stupid and ignorant, IMO, and agreeing with most of them on anything makes me wonder if I'm wrong.


Your own behavior shows you don't believe what you're saying, nobody uses co2 in real life.

The earth has 10kg co2 per square meter, a house is 500. So you're pretending co2 is 50x better insulation than real life.

It's utterly moronic, there's no way you could believe this.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Pops » Wed 21 Jul 2021, 08:38:01

mustang19 wrote:I just want to add, global warming is declining in popularity. Keep clinging to your dying idea that peaked a few years ago and then people realized it requires co2 to be a ten times better insulator than fiberglass.

Fiberglass and co2 are not the same in any sense. It's like comparing a greenhouse to the side of a refrigerator. It is a null argument

Fiberglass insulation blocks heat movement, regardless of direction. It traps air in spaces too small to allow convection. If the atmosphere were fiberglass we would never have existed.

CO2 instead acts as a gate, it is transparent to visible and UV light so sunlight passes by heating the earth's surface. The earth then reradiates some of that heat in infrared wavelengths. CO2 is opaque to IR so absorbs that energy. It then reradiates some back to earth. Most gases like oxygen and nitrogen aren't selective in this way. Fiberglass isn't at all.

In just the right concentration CO2 keeps the earth warm enough for liquid water, without it we wouldn't be. But with too much we are dogs left in the car to cook under the sun.

Regardless, this isn't a thread about whether GW is popular or even valid so take that bs elsewhere.

.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Pops » Thu 22 Jul 2021, 07:37:18

I guess when the moderators take the thread off topic there isn't much hope they will keep it on topic.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 22 Jul 2021, 08:33:22

Pops wrote:I guess when the moderators take the thread off topic there isn't much hope they will keep it on topic.


Sorry Pops, I moved the Fossil Water diversion over to the Sustainability thread where it goes way back into the past and the hoax posts over to the hoax thread where they belong.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Pops » Fri 23 Jul 2021, 07:56:59

Thanks T!
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Pops » Fri 23 Jul 2021, 08:56:49

Rystad wrote:remaining recoverable resources in the US are now reduced to 214 billion barrels, losing 30 billion barrels from last year’s estimate.

I looked around for something more recent from Jean Laherrere than I posted earlier and found this from a presentation with Charles Hall in 2018. It is a review of URR forecasts from various and sundry. J.L. estimated in 2002 that US URR was 220Gb, revised in 2018 to 300GB.

Rystad Energy now estimates total recoverable oil resources at 1,725 billion barrels, a significant reduction of last year’s estimate of 1,903 billion barrels.

Rystad in 2016 said remaining 2p reserves and potential discoveries were 264GB for the US, 2092 for the world. So this latest estimate has chopped off 367GB from their 2016 estimate.

https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/ ... 9march.pdf
https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/ ... k_2016.pdf
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 23 Jul 2021, 10:34:01

It would seem that the prudent thing to do would be to try to make that last.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 24 Jul 2021, 12:50:47

The latest EIA data I can find says that fracking in the USA produced 2.67 billion barrels of petroleum and natural gas liquids in 2020. Watching the URR number doesn't seem to help much as every time the price dips the number plummets because it is based on economically recoverable oil. The other half of that problem is as the frackers get more proficient in squeezing oil out of tight formations the production cost per barrel goes down which makes it more economical to produce.

I understand why they base figures on economical recovery, after all if the price is high enough you can mine kerogen containing green river formation shale and bake the crude out of it. There are supposed to be something like 3-5 TRILLION barrels of oil recoverable from that kerogen rich shale, but the cost of recovery has always been outside the cost of producing oil by other methods so other than a few pilot plants over the last century nobody has gone all out to produce it. Truth is, someday somebody might figure out a cheap way to produce all that kerogen rich shale as liquid oil, but for now it is trillions of barrels of unobtainable oil.

IIRC the F-T plants to convert Natural Gas into synthetic kerosene and diesel is much cheaper than mining kerogen containing rock. So long as Fracking keeps producing cheap gas that green river formation will remain beyond economic reach.

That being said if oil does peak in the near future prices will rise and a lot of things seen as uneconomic today will suddenly become economically favorable. This is IMO the major flaw of the Rystad report, it presumes demand will fall as fast or faster as supply due to geological peak oil. I will say for me and my house, I need to see proof before I buy into that scenario.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Gmark » Sat 24 Jul 2021, 13:00:36

Tanada wrote:That being said if oil does peak in the near future prices will rise and a lot of things seen as uneconomic today will suddenly become economically favorable.


I agree. The energy industry evolved completely from people trying to make money, and as things tighten in the future, I expect oodles of cash will be thrown at nuclear, geothermal electric, kerogen extraction, wind, solar, and ideas we haven't even thought of yet. Lots of that cash will be wasted, but that financial motivation might lead to something significant.

It's just a race now, to see if they can find some combination of technologies that will keep the air conditioner running before the lights go out.
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Re: Rystad: Not Enough Oil for >1.8º warming

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 24 Jul 2021, 15:23:55

Gmark wrote:
Tanada wrote:That being said if oil does peak in the near future prices will rise and a lot of things seen as uneconomic today will suddenly become economically favorable.


I agree. The energy industry evolved completely from people trying to make money, and as things tighten in the future, I expect oodles of cash will be thrown at nuclear, geothermal electric, kerogen extraction, wind, solar, and ideas we haven't even thought of yet. Lots of that cash will be wasted, but that financial motivation might lead to something significant.

It's just a race now, to see if they can find some combination of technologies that will keep the air conditioner running before the lights go out.

So you're just discounting all green energy? And batteries?

There are a LOT of improvements being made over time in terms of relative cost and efficiency, even if it will be decades before green energy can run most of the A/C, for example.

So why are the lights "going out" and are you saying that will happen real soon, or someday, or something in between? (I believe in slow decline vs. the instadoom so many preach on this site. And I think much of the decline can be managed over time by having a smaller population IF people will wake up enough over time to accept that reality. What China has done recently re its rules for having children is not a good sign in the short term, of course.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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