Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak oil debate

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Pops » Sat 10 Jul 2021, 21:01:12

AdamB wrote:
Pops wrote:Alternatives to conventional are more expensive to produce.

The cheapest, non-OPEC new oil is $43+ bbl breakeven per Rystad,


We've talked about how Rystad does what they do before. Feel free to note the total size of the resource they are discussing as well as cost, and then comprehend that this number is far lower than any comprehensive view of long chain hydrocarbon resources. You are aware that Rystad does NOT incorporate the technical information available in the old PetroConsultants database, right? Have you ever watched one of their presentations? I use their near term information extensively, as they watch some portions of the market like a hawk that I just don't have time for (they are hell on wheels with current trends in the Canadian tar sand sector, for example).

I can only report what I find in the wild. I actually was surprised at how far the cost has fallen for deepwater. In fact, they forecast a breakeven for 100mmbd of "liquids" at only $50bbl in 2026—they had calculated it to be $90 back in 2014—a pretty huge change.

I did read a report by a couple of Petroconsultant guys back in '98 in SciAm ;^)
One of the things they mentioned was the wide range of estimates put out by all manner of entities and their dubious ties to reality. And the US is not different, you'll remember the Monterey Shale oopsie by the USGS. Or the EIA who in 2017 said Gahwar had been producing 6mmbd since Jesus was a pup, but oopsie, they had no clue either... In 2019 Aramco's own prospectus said The King could only do 3.8mmbd max—as if you can start believing them now, LOL

It could very well be that there are enough fossils accessible at a low price to turn this planet into a twin of Mars. On the other hand, I would not be surprised if Gahwar actually watered out 5 years ago and the "bell shaped" curve turns into a shark fin and the price curve goes exponential —oopsie. It is only in some Goldilocks zone, before oil price goes stratospheric where fear of broiling in our skins goads us into a drastic transition away from fossils —before that very thing is what we all become.

I'm not holding my breath.
.

https://planetforlife.com/htmlfiles/End ... %20Oil.htm
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/4/2/ ... jor-fields
https://www.postcarbon.org/usgs-downgra ... alifornia/
https://www.usgs.gov/news/usgs-estimate ... mation-san
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19291
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 10 Jul 2021, 23:09:57

Pops wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Pops wrote:Alternatives to conventional are more expensive to produce.

The cheapest, non-OPEC new oil is $43+ bbl breakeven per Rystad,


We've talked about how Rystad does what they do before. /quote]
I can only report what I find in the wild.


Correct. Nothing wrong with reaching for the information you've got, or me reaching for what I've got.

Pops wrote: I did read a report by a couple of Petroconsultant guys back in '98 in SciAm ;^)
One of the things they mentioned was the wide range of estimates put out by all manner of entities and their dubious ties to reality.


Indeed. And now we know that they didn't know squat. Those that did and dared to mention it among the true believers 15 years ago, were banned from all sorts of online venues with enthusiasm. 8)

Pops wrote:And the US is not different, you'll remember the Monterey Shale oopsie by the USGS. Or the EIA who in 2017 said Gahwar had been producing 6mmbd since Jesus was a pup, but oopsie, they had no clue either... In 2019 Aramco's own prospectus said The King could only do 3.8mmbd max—as if you can start believing them now, LOL


LOL indeed. Remember when, from all those estimates made during the heyday of peak oil, the only one not discredited by the reality of time and volumes was the one from the EIA? Their estimate at 2037 is still out there. Pretty clever those folks, knowing more than the amateur hour that was peak oil "experts" back then. Those Scientific American guys? Mostly in hiding. I recall the Monterey shale debacle as well. The EIA hired a contractor, who put out a terrible number. Upon consulting experts, the EIA modified those resources into oblivion. And then was backed up by the USGS in having done so. I don't recall the EIA claiming Ghawar was producing at full volume in 2017, do you have a reference? As far as believing Saudi Arabia or EIA, heck, how about the people that said Ghawar would be empty in the year 2000? Or Simmons, who said that when Ghawar peaked, so would the world? Of course, why would anyone ask an accountant oil questions and expect an informed answer, right? :)

Those were the days. You figure that the LATOCians and Powerswitchers and Wolf At The Door Brits, and imploded ASPO and imploded TOD and all the others are still out there, just waiting to recycle the ideas that failed last time, or did they go out and learn?


Pops wrote:It could very well be that there are enough fossils accessible at a low price to turn this planet into a twin of Mars. On the other hand, I would not be surprised if Gahwar actually watered out 5 years ago and the "bell shaped" curve turns into a shark fin and the price curve goes exponential —oopsie


The good news about shark fins is they aren't a natural decline profile. I figure the guy who came up with that one never produced an oil field under primary or secondary recovery before. No surprise there, how many of these bad peak oil ideas ever came from petroleum engineers? The geologists seem to be involved all over the place, and then do horrible maths.

Pops wrote:I'm not holding my breath
.

Me neither. The next price spike? The Happy McPeaksters are going to pour outta the woodwork. Again. I'm hoping it is before I retire so every time they rinse, recycle and repeat I've got a footnote ready for a paper or book about it.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 6608
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Pops » Sun 11 Jul 2021, 08:46:35

AdamB wrote:Those that did and dared to mention it among the true believers 15 years ago, were banned from all sorts of online venues with enthusiasm. 8)

Yeah, I got the impression you feel mistreated by peakers back when and are here exacting revenge. Seems like grudge matches are common sport nowadays.

Back when, my cautious WAG was a peak in the teens and a plateau 'till sometime in the twenties. Turned out the important peak, that of conventional oil production, came and went in 2006 (IEA WEO 2010) pretty well on schedule. I kinda thought TPTB would try to extend the party as far as possible, and the global debt shows that to be the case. Certainly throwing cheap money at frackers has extended the fracas, just as it has the market exuberance.


That bit about EIA and Gahwar came from this
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/4/2/ ... jor-fields
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19291
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Polybius » Sun 11 Jul 2021, 10:01:53

Pops wrote:
AdamB wrote:Those that did and dared to mention it among the true believers 15 years ago, were banned from all sorts of online venues with enthusiasm. 8)

Yeah, I got the impression you feel mistreated by peakers back when and are here exacting revenge. Seems like grudge matches are common sport nowadays.

Back when, my cautious WAG was a peak in the teens and a plateau 'till sometime in the twenties. Turned out the important peak, that of conventional oil production, came and went in 2006 (IEA WEO 2010) pretty well on schedule. I kinda thought TPTB would try to extend the party as far as possible, and the global debt shows that to be the case. Certainly throwing cheap money at frackers has extended the fracas, just as it has the market exuberance.


That bit about EIA and Gahwar came from this
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/4/2/ ... jor-fields



Adam also got a hard on for me after I exposed his beloved CIA for covid and bitcoin
Polybius
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 82
Joined: Tue 13 Apr 2021, 10:37:51
Location: Arlington/Dallas

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 11 Jul 2021, 10:46:22

Pops wrote:
AdamB wrote:Those that did and dared to mention it among the true believers 15 years ago, were banned from all sorts of online venues with enthusiasm. 8)

Yeah, I got the impression you feel mistreated by peakers back when and are here exacting revenge. Seems like grudge matches are common sport nowadays.


On occasion, perhaps I reveal too much. :) No hard feelings, but I reserve the right to gloat on occasion.

Also, and perhaps more interestingly, it changed the trajectory of my professional development and career.

Pops']
Back when, my cautious WAG was a peak in the teens and a plateau 'till sometime in the twenties. Turned out the important peak, that of conventional oil production, came and went in 2006 (IEA WEO 2010) pretty well on schedule. I kinda thought TPTB would try to extend the party as far as possible, and the global debt shows that to be the case. Certainly throwing cheap money at frackers has extended the fracas, just as it has the market exuberance.
[/quote]

Come on Pops..you can say it...turns out Sarah "I can see Russia from my house!" Palin knew more about how to get more oil production than every peaker known to mankind pre-2010.

[quote="Pops wrote:
That bit about EIA and Gahwar came from this
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/4/2/ ... jor-fields


Thanks. Unfortunately, the article just makes the claim the EIA said so, it doesn't provide a quote or link to where they actually said so. Sort of like claiming the EIA claims the Monterey has 15 billion in it when it was a contractors report, sure, the info might be most likely associated with the EIA somewhere, but finding it can be a bear, assuming it is even true. And oftentimes when these mentions are made, they skip the caveats that come with it, the Monterey being the same kind of example. Whereas the EIA 2037 peak oil claim, folks can link to that one directly.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 6608
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 11 Jul 2021, 11:24:02

Polybius wrote:Adam also got a hard on for me after I exposed his beloved CIA for covid and bitcoin


The world is all about your conspiracy claims, is it?

Image
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 6608
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 14 Jul 2021, 18:41:23

Polybius wrote:Adam also got a hard on for me after I exposed his beloved CIA for covid and bitcoin

As if outside the confines of your fact free paranoia, you had any credibility at all. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9628
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Tuike » Sun 18 Jul 2021, 15:14:13

OPEC and allies target full end to oil production cuts by September 2022, increase supply limits as prices climb -cnbc
Coordinated increases in oil supply from the group, known as OPEC+, will begin in August, OPEC announced in a statement. Overall production will increase by 400,000 barrels per day on a monthly basis from that point onward. The International Energy Agency estimates a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year, indicating a tight market despite the gradual OPEC supply boost.
User avatar
Tuike
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 548
Joined: Mon 10 Jan 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Finland

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby mustang19 » Sun 18 Jul 2021, 18:26:11

Tuike wrote:OPEC and allies target full end to oil production cuts by September 2022, increase supply limits as prices climb -cnbc
Coordinated increases in oil supply from the group, known as OPEC+, will begin in August, OPEC announced in a statement. Overall production will increase by 400,000 barrels per day on a monthly basis from that point onward. The International Energy Agency estimates a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year, indicating a tight market despite the gradual OPEC supply boost.


So, that's about 0.4% global production a month, and half depends depends on Iraq (4m to 4.6 by April) and perhaps a similar amount from Iran. Neither of these are growing exports.

It's really a test of whether Saudi can grow, and it may not, given the collapse of rig counts and base decline of 8% on ghawar.
mustang19
permanently banned
 
Posts: 841
Joined: Fri 06 Nov 2020, 20:43:52

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 25 Jul 2021, 22:26:28

mustang19 wrote:
Tuike wrote:OPEC and allies target full end to oil production cuts by September 2022, increase supply limits as prices climb -cnbc
Coordinated increases in oil supply from the group, known as OPEC+, will begin in August, OPEC announced in a statement. Overall production will increase by 400,000 barrels per day on a monthly basis from that point onward. The International Energy Agency estimates a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year, indicating a tight market despite the gradual OPEC supply boost.


So, that's about 0.4% global production a month, and half depends depends on Iraq (4m to 4.6 by April) and perhaps a similar amount from Iran. Neither of these are growing exports.

It's really a test of whether Saudi can grow, and it may not, given the collapse of rig counts and base decline of 8% on ghawar.
Have a little faith in the power of the market. If the demand is there the producers will move heaven and earth to meet that demand. I can't predict which producer will meet the demand but I am very sure one of them will.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12147
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby mustang19 » Sun 25 Jul 2021, 22:36:51

vtsnowedin wrote:
mustang19 wrote:
Tuike wrote:OPEC and allies target full end to oil production cuts by September 2022, increase supply limits as prices climb -cnbc
Coordinated increases in oil supply from the group, known as OPEC+, will begin in August, OPEC announced in a statement. Overall production will increase by 400,000 barrels per day on a monthly basis from that point onward. The International Energy Agency estimates a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year, indicating a tight market despite the gradual OPEC supply boost.


So, that's about 0.4% global production a month, and half depends depends on Iraq (4m to 4.6 by April) and perhaps a similar amount from Iran. Neither of these are growing exports.

It's really a test of whether Saudi can grow, and it may not, given the collapse of rig counts and base decline of 8% on ghawar.
Have a little faith in the power of the market. If the demand is there the producers will move heaven and earth to meet that demand. I can't predict which producer will meet the demand but I am very sure one of them will.


Saudi production increased when prices went negative.

OPEC cutting is contributing to the price increase liberal. Oil price is entirely determined by monetary policy and inventory, and inventory is low, which all seven times 73, 75, 80, 90, 2000, 08 and 15 we have data for, caused a year of price growth and crash like we are seeing.
mustang19
permanently banned
 
Posts: 841
Joined: Fri 06 Nov 2020, 20:43:52

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 26 Jul 2021, 00:19:26

KSA is a bit of an outlier. As oil is the only thing they have to sell if the price drops their only option is to sell more cheap barrels to pay their current bills.
The rest of the producing world? not so much.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12147
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 26 Jul 2021, 00:32:31

vtsnowedin wrote:KSA is a bit of an outlier. As oil is the only thing they have to sell if the price drops their only option is to sell more cheap barrels to pay their current bills.
The rest of the producing world? not so much.


That doesn't matter. All that matters is the hubbert curve which everyone is following. At the moment it's down.

Also the-world-outside-america-has-been-in-peak-oil-since-2005-t78054.html
mustang19
permanently banned
 
Posts: 841
Joined: Fri 06 Nov 2020, 20:43:52

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 18 guests